Will the NASDAQ-100 finish positive in 2026?

Consensus forecasts project significant 2026 GAAP EPS for leading NASDAQ-100 components. Microsoft (MSFT) is projected to achieve a GAAP EPS of approximately $13.50 for 2026 ^[2]. Apple (AAPL) is anticipated to reach around $7.20 ^[1], while Amazon (AMZN) holds a consensus forecast of roughly $4.80 ^[1]. Alphabet (GOOGL) is expected to attain about $8.90 for the same period ^[1]. For NVIDIA (NVDA), specific full-year 2026 GAAP EPS forecasts are not extensively detailed across the available sources beyond expectations for Q1 2026 ^[1].

The 2026 10-year Treasury yield is anticipated to be around 4.15%. This forward pricing for the 10-year Treasury yield for December 2026 indicates market expectations ^[3]. This projected yield is a crucial benchmark for discounting future earnings and evaluating investment attractiveness, thereby influencing equity valuations and the broader economic outlook for 2026 ^[3]. The robust GAAP EPS forecasts for these major tech companies, when considered alongside the expected 10-year Treasury yield, suggest that analysts foresee substantial earnings growth, potentially supporting equity valuations even within this forecasted bond yield environment ^[3].

Treasury plans substantial, diversified debt issuance through 2025 and 2026. Net marketable borrowing is projected to average between $500 billion and $600 billion per quarter ^[1]. The composition of this debt will remain diversified across maturities. T-Bills are expected to constitute 30-40% of total net borrowing, generally ranging from $170 billion to $215 billion per quarter ^[1]. Notes, covering 2-year to 10-year maturities, are projected to form the largest share, averaging between $150 billion and $300 billion quarterly, accounting for over 40-50% of the total ^[1]. For longer-duration securities, the Treasury plans to maintain existing auction sizes for most notes and 30-year bonds, while incrementally increasing 20-year bond issuance by $1 billion per auction in the first quarter of 2025, a new size that will then be maintained ^[1]. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are also slated for increased net issuance, particularly in 2026, with Q1 and Q4 2026 projected at $30 billion, up from $10-15 billion in most 2025 quarters ^[1]. This comprehensive strategy aligns with the Treasury's stated goals of meeting financing needs, ensuring market liquidity, and managing the average maturity of outstanding debt ^[2], ^[3].

Sustained long-duration debt issuance will impact the yield curve. The consistent and substantial issuance of longer-dated notes and bonds through 2025 and 2026 is expected to maintain supply pressure on the long-duration yield curve ^[2], ^[3], ^[1]. While the Treasury aims for a balanced approach, the ongoing level of issuance in maturities such as 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year will necessitate continuous market absorption ^[4]. This sustained supply, coupled with overall large borrowing needs, could contribute to upward pressure on long-duration yields or, at a minimum, prevent significant declines, as investors will demand compensation for holding this debt ^[4]. The interplay between this sustained long-duration supply and significant T-Bill issuance, intended to address short-term financing needs, could contribute to a steeper yield curve, particularly if demand for long-duration instruments does not keep pace with supply or if short-term rates are contained.

Capital expenditures for top NASDAQ-100 companies are significantly surging due to AI infrastructure investments. These leading companies, often characterized as Big Tech and Hyperscalers, are experiencing a substantial increase in CapEx, primarily driven by strategic investments in AI infrastructure ^[3]. Projections for 2026 suggest total CapEx could range from $500 billion to $780 billion. More specific estimates include a $780 billion spending surge within Big Tech and an estimated $650 billion dedicated to AI CapEx within the same timeframe ^[1]. This period of intensified investment is recognized as an "AI CapEx supercycle" that profoundly impacts company valuations and the broader NASDAQ market landscape ^[3]. Notably, approximately $720 billion of this expenditure is attributed to AI Hyperscalers, specifically focusing on growth-oriented projects ^[4].

The research lacks specific data on AI product revenue growth meeting analyst projections. The provided sources do not offer direct data or analyses concerning whether corresponding revenue growth from AI products is meeting analyst projections by the second half of 2025. Although a preliminary Q3 2025 earnings update for the NASDAQ-100 is mentioned ^[5], the available information does not explicitly detail revenue growth specifically from AI products or compare such growth against analyst projections for H2 2025.

Google's antitrust cases are significantly progressing, with remedies expected by late 2025. The US Department of Justice's antitrust lawsuits against Google are advancing, with key milestones anticipated by Q4 2025. A judge is expected to finalize remedies for Google's search advertising practices as early as December 5, 2025 ^[1]. Furthermore, the US v. Google Ad Tech case, which addresses whether Google's Ad Tech stack should be broken up, has moved into closing arguments. This indicates the case is well into its trial phase, with potential for significant rulings or remedy discussions by the fourth quarter of 2025 ^[2]. While Google may face adverse court decisions on certain aspects by 2025, the exact nature of these remedies, particularly concerning structural changes such as divestitures, remains a critical point of discussion ^[2].

Apple faces a Department of Justice antitrust lawsuit actively progressing by Q4 2025. The US Department of Justice has also filed an antitrust lawsuit against Apple. By Q4 2025, this case is expected to be either in an active trial phase or advancing through discovery and preliminary motions ^[3].

The new administration's 2026 budget proposes significant corporate tax changes. Following the 2024 US election, the new Trump administration unveiled its first budget proposal for Fiscal Year 2026 in May 2025, featuring substantial corporate tax policy revisions under a legislative package called "The One Big Beautiful Bill Act" ^[2]. This bill is central to the administration's strategy for economic growth and deficit reduction ^[1]. Key proposals include a permanent reduction in the corporate income tax rate from 21% to 15% ^[1].

The bill includes permanent expensing for R&D and other investments. Additionally, the proposed legislation seeks to make permanent the 100% expensing for research and development (R&D) costs, which currently face amortization requirements under existing law ^[1]. Further provisions outlined in reports on "The One Big Beautiful Bill Act" include a permanent 100% expensing for business investments and full interest deductibility ^[3].

Enactment probabilities are not available from the current research. Regarding the probability of these proposed policies being enacted, the provided research does not contain information about the final composition of Congress after the 2024 election ^[2]. Consequently, the sources do not offer specific probabilities for the enactment of these corporate tax changes, focusing instead on detailing the proposed policies themselves ^[2].