Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · Top 3 Finishers
Short Answer
Amber Glenn is likely to finish in the Top 3 of Dancing with the Stars Season 35, with the market pricing this outcome at 94.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This contract's probability of a top-three finish collapsed from 22% to 1% between September 3 and September 17. The sell-off preceded the season's premiere on September 15, suggesting a negative market reaction to pre-show information or the cast announcement itself.
The provided research does not offer a specific driver for the sharp decline in this contestant's odds. Furthermore, the listed "Significant Price Movements" appear inconsistent with this contract's data, describing price spikes while the chart shows a steady downward trend. One listed event, a September 17 price movement, is explicitly contextualized by price action in a different contestant's market.
- Since last update (~24h): Jenna Dewan's model-led probability for a Top 3 finish declined -28.6pp, widening the edge.
- Maura Higgins saw a substantial market-led surge, with model probability up +33.4pp, widening the edge.
- Headline model probability fell -8.0pp, with market down -11.0pp, as the overall edge improved +3.0pp.
- Amber Glenn appears positioned for success, showing strong early Season 35 potential.
- Harry Shum Jr. and Julia Stiles emerged as early Season 35 frontrunners.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Jane Nader | 1.0% | 0.3% | Success for Sarah Jane Nader will hinge on her performances and viewer connection. |
| Conner Leavitt | 2.0% | 0.7% | Conner Leavitt's progress depends on his dance ability and growing viewer support. |
| Guillermo Rodriguez | 2.0% | 0.7% | Guillermo Rodriguez's unique appeal may help him gather viewer votes in the competition. |
| Tatyana Ali | 17.0% | 8.1% | Her long-standing acting career gives her a broad and loyal fan base. |
| Giada De Laurentiis | 4.0% | 1.4% | A familiar public figure like Giada De Laurentiis often appeals to a broad audience. |
Current Context
Season 35 aired two premiere episodes with two eliminations. As of September 17, 2026, the show has broadcast two premiere episodes, airing September 15 and 16. One contestant was eliminated on each of those nights [1][2]. The season will continue to air weekly on Tuesdays on ABC and Disney+, with an official finale date pending announcement [1][2].
Sources (8)
- 1Dancing with the Stars (American TV series) season 35en.wikipedia.org
- 2‘Dancing With the Stars’ Season 35 Episode Schedule, How to Watch & Stream, Finale Date Infojustjared.com
- 3'Dancing With the Stars' Season 35 Unveils Cast: See the Full Listbillboard.com
- 4‘Dancing With the Stars’ Live Blog: Which Male Will Be Eliminated on Night 1? - IMDbimdb.com
- 5“DWTS” Season 35 Premiere Sends Home Its First Couple - IMDbimdb.com
- 6DWTS season 34 eliminations: See who went home every week and who wonew.com
- 7'Dancing With the Stars' Finale Live Updates: Winner, Total Scores and Best Momentstoday.com
- 8Dancing With the Stars Finale: Who Won Season 34?thewrap.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Amber Glenn
📈 September 17, 2026: 80.0pp spike
Price increased from 14.0% to 94.0%
What happened: The market's 80.0 percentage point spike for Amber Glenn to be a "Top 3 Finisher" on September 17, 2026, appears to lack a discernible primary driver from social media, traditional news, or market structure factors within the provided research. As of the spike date, "Dancing with the Stars Season 35" had only just premiered on September 15, 2026, with top 3 finishers yet to be determined [1][2]. No social media activity from key figures or breaking news indicating a strong performance or favoritism for Glenn was identified to coincide with or lead this movement. Consequently, social media was irrelevant to this price movement, which appears anomalous given the early stage of the competition.
📉 September 16, 2026: 81.0pp drop
Price decreased from 95.0% to 14.0%
What happened: The provided web research indicates that the stated 81.0 percentage point drop for Amber Glenn on September 16, 2026, is not supported by available news or social media reports regarding "Dancing with the Stars Season 35" performance or contestant outcomes [3]. While the season premiered on September 15-16, 2026, and Amber Glenn performed, the competition is in its early stages, and no "Top 3" finishers have been determined [4][5][2]. No specific social media activity or traditional news was found to correlate with or explain such a significant negative price movement for Amber Glenn [3]. Consequently, social media was irrelevant, as there is no evidential basis for the described market event.
Outcome: Maura Higgins
📉 September 15, 2026: 63.0pp drop
Price decreased from 83.0% to 20.0%
What happened: The primary driver for Maura Higgins' 63.0 percentage point price drop on September 15, 2026, was likely the official cast announcement for Dancing with the Stars Season 35, which premiered on that date, not listing her as a contestant [3]. If market participants had priced in her inclusion, her apparent absence from the confirmed lineup would cause a significant devaluation for a "Top 3 Finisher" outcome [3]. There is no evidence of specific social media activity directly causing or accelerating this particular price movement, therefore, social media was irrelevant.
Outcome: Connor Wood
📈 September 14, 2026: 74.0pp spike
Price increased from 9.0% to 83.0%
What happened: The 74.0 percentage point spike for Connor Wood on September 14, 2026, occurred the day before Dancing with the Stars Season 35 premiered on September 15, 2026 [4][6]. The web research does not identify any specific social media posts from influential figures or viral narratives that occurred on or prior to September 14, 2026, which could explain this movement. Furthermore, the spike is not referenced in standard media coverage, indicating a lack of traditional news or announcements as a driver [6]. Based on the available information, social media appears to be irrelevant as a primary driver for this particular market movement.
Outcome: Taylor Hanson
📉 September 13, 2026: 21.0pp drop
Price decreased from 25.0% to 4.0%
What happened: The provided web research does not contain evidence of a 21.0 percentage point price drop for Taylor Hanson in the "Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · Top 3 Finishers" market on September 13, 2026 [7]. There is no information about social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors on that specific date that would explain such a movement [7]. The season premiere, where Taylor Hanson first performed, occurred two days later on September 15, 2026 [7]. Consequently, based on the available information, the primary driver for this described price movement cannot be identified, and social media activity appears irrelevant to the unsupported event.
Sources (7)
- 1Who Will Win ‘Dancing With the Stars’ Season 35? Looking at the Odds - IMDbimdb.com
- 2‘Dancing With the Stars’ Live Blog: Which Male Will Be Eliminated on Night 1? - IMDbimdb.com
- 3How the Music for 'Dancing With the Stars' Comes Together Every Weekbillboard.com
- 4Dancing with the Stars (American TV series) season 35en.wikipedia.org
- 5Sarah Jane Nader axed from ‘Dancing With the Stars’ as Season 35 premiere event wraps with surprise eliminationpagesix.com
- 6DWTS Season 35: Connor Wood's Pro Rylee Arnold Details Premiere Trainingeonline.com
- 7Taylor Hanson shines on 'Dancing with the Stars' premiereoklahoman.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market offers contracts on whether individual celebrities will finish in the top 3 of Dancing with the Stars Season 35. A "Yes" contract for a celebrity resolves as true if they place among the top three, and a "No" contract resolves as true if they do not. The maximum payout date for these markets is December 31, 2026, with no other specific settlement conditions detailed on this page.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amber Glenn | $0.90 | $0.86 | 94% |
| Harry Shum Jr. | $0.86 | $0.28 | 90% |
| Jenna Dewan | $0.80 | $0.64 | 72% |
| Maura Higgins | $0.70 | $0.48 | 47% |
| Julia Stiles | $0.39 | $0.76 | 41% |
| Taylor Hanson | $0.44 | $0.67 | 32% |
| Jackson Olson | $0.87 | $0.89 | 28% |
| Ezra Frech | $0.67 | $0.76 | 22% |
| Tatyana Ali | $0.15 | $0.96 | 17% |
| Connor Wood | $0.65 | $0.91 | 7% |
| Ciara Miller | $0.79 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Tyler Cameron | $0.82 | $0.92 | 5% |
| Giada De Laurentiis | $0.07 | $0.98 | 4% |
| Conner Leavitt | $0.01 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Guillermo Rodriguez | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Sarah Jane Nader | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Dancing with the Stars Season 35 premiered on September 15–16, 2026, and is currently in its early stages, with no top three finishers determined at this time [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Prior to the premiere, prediction market data identified actor/dancer Harry Shum Jr., Olympic figure skater Amber Glenn, and actress Jenna Dewan as early favorites to win the season [7][8]. Prediction markets continue to drive social media and entertainment news commentary on initial win/loss probabilities for the celebrity cast [7][9][10].
Sources (10)
- 1Dancing with the Stars (American TV series) season 35en.wikipedia.org
- 2'Dancing with the Stars' season 35: What to know about the cast, premiere date and more - Good Morning Americagoodmorningamerica.com
- 3‘DANCING WITH THE STARS’ IS BACK IN THE BALLROOM WITH AN ALL-NEW CELEBRITY CASTdetpress.com
- 4‘Dancing With the Stars’ Live Blog: Which Male Will Be Eliminated on Night 1? - IMDbimdb.com
- 5'Dancing With the Stars' Continues Season 35 Premiere...imdb.com
- 6'Dancing With the Stars' Season 35 Unveils Cast: See the Full Listbillboard.com
- 7Dancing With The Stars – S35: Winner & Elimination Oddsactionnetwork.com
- 8Who Will Win 'Dancing With the Stars' Season 35? Looking at the Oddstvinsider.com
- 9Dancing With the Stars Season 35 Prediction Market Watch | RotoWirerotowire.com
- 10Who Wins 'Dancing With the Stars'? Season 35 Winner Odds Reveal the Early Favorites Ahead of Premiere | Just Jared - Celebrity News, Entertainment News & Photosjustjared.com
5. Trust Index
“Julia Stiles” made a large jump with almost no trading behind it.
Integrity risk· Thin-volume moves
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score77Good
Market integrity is low (63), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score57Caution
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score73Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What performance history and initial judges' scores support the view of Julia Stiles and Harry Shum Jr. as early frontrunners for Season 35?
| Harry Shum Jr. implied win probability | 19.4% (early September 2026) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| DWTS Season 35 premiere date | September 15-16, 2026 [4] |
| Total contestants | 16 (as of September 2, 2026) [2] |
Julia Stiles and Harry Shum Jr. emerged as early Season 35 frontrunners. As of early September 2026, both celebrities were identified as potential frontrunners for Dancing with the Stars Season 35, based on early prediction market interest [2][1][3]. They were among the 16 contestants announced for the season, with market activity signaling strong interest in their anticipated performance [2]. Specifically, Harry Shum Jr. was noted as a frontrunner with an implied probability of 19.4% to win during early September 2026 [2][1][3]. Concurrently, Julia Stiles consistently featured in markets tracking top three finishers and overall winners [2][1][3].
Premiere details are available, but performance data is not included. Dancing with the Stars Season 35 premiered on September 15-16, 2026, with distinct nights for male and female competitors [4]. However, the available information does not include details regarding their performance history or initial judges' scores from the premiere or subsequent episodes.
Sources (4)
- 1Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · Top 3 Finishers - Kalshi Quoten | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 2Kalshi Markets: Trump, NZ Rates, Diesel Pricespredictionnewsnetwork.com
- 3Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · 2nd Place - Kalshi Quoten | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 4DWTS Season 35 Premiere Night 2 Female Celeb Recaphollywoodreporter.com
7. How does the performance trajectory of past athletes on DWTS inform the potential for Paralympian Ezra Frech and figure skater Amber Glenn this season?
| Amber Glenn DWTS Winner Prediction | 16.5% (as of September 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Ezra Frech DWTS Prediction | Listed among participants for top placement outcomes (September 2026) [2] |
| Notable Paralympian DWTS Achievement | Amy Purdy was runner-up in season 18 [3] |
Ezra Frech and Amber Glenn show strong early Season 35 potential. Both athletes are positioned for success on Dancing with the Stars, building on the historical performance of similar athlete backgrounds. As of September 2026, prediction markets place Amber Glenn among top winner predictions at 16.5%, with Ezra Frech also listed for top placement outcomes, though markets are still developing early in the season [1][2].
Figure skaters consistently excel due to their unique athletic backgrounds. Past figure skating gold medalists such as Kristi Yamaguchi, Meryl Davis, and Adam Rippon have won the competition, demonstrating a strong track record [3][4]. Their extensive training in discipline, musicality, and performing under pressure significantly contributes to their success on the dance floor [3][4]. Amber Glenn, a figure skater, is partnered with Pasha Pashkov for Season 35, a professional known for strong choreography [5].
Paralympians bring unique athleticism and adaptability to the dance floor. Their success on the show is notable, exemplified by Amy Purdy, who finished as the runner-up in Season 18 [3]. This highlights the ability of athletes with physical disabilities to effectively translate their unique skills to competitive dancing [3]. Ezra Frech, a Paralympian, is paired with professional Daniella Karagach for Season 35, an experienced professional dancer also recognized for her strong choreography [5].
Sources (5)
- 1Kalshi Markets: Trump, NZ Rates, Diesel Pricespredictionnewsnetwork.com
- 2Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · Top 3 Finishers - Kalshi Quoten | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 3Figure skater Johnny Weir makes 'Dancing With the Stars' debutolympics.com
- 4Olympic Ice Skaters Who Competed on Dancing with the Starspeople.com
- 5'Dancing With the Stars' Season 35 Cast and Eliminationscosmopolitan.com
8. What are the key themed nights in Season 35 that could significantly alter a contestant's odds of reaching the finale?
| Season 35 Premiere Date | Tuesday, September 15, 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Themed Night Data Availability | Not publicly available [3] |
| Prediction Market Resolution | December 31, 2026 [4][5][3] |
Dancing with the Stars Season 35 premiered with a two-night event. The season commenced on Tuesday, September 15, 2026 [1][2]. As of September 17, 2026, prediction markets are actively trading on various Season 35 outcomes, including Top 3 Finishers, 2nd Place, 3rd Place, and the overall Winner, with market resolution anticipated by December 31, 2026 [4][5][3].
Prediction market participants focus on individual contestant performance. Without access to publicly available data on themed nights, their influence on a contestant's probability of reaching the finale remains undetermined, as details regarding specific themed nights for Season 35 have not yet been made public [3].
Sources (5)
- 1Dancing with the Starsabc.com
- 2How to watch 'Dancing with the Stars' season 35 onlineyahoo.com
- 3Kalshi Markets: Trump, NZ Rates, Diesel Pricespredictionnewsnetwork.com
- 4Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · Top 3 Finishers - Kalshi Quoten | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 5Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · 3rd Place - Kalshi Quoten | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
9. What is the historical placement record for the professional dancers partnered with Jenna Dewan and Tatyana Ali in previous 'Dancing with the Stars' seasons?
| Tatyana Ali DWTS historical placement | No historical placement record as Season 35 is in progress [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Jan Ravnik DWTS historical placement | No historical placement record as Season 35 is in progress [1][2][3] |
| Jenna Dewan DWTS historical placement | No historical placement record as she has not previously competed as a celebrity contestant [4][5][6][7] |
Tatyana Ali is currently competing on Dancing with the Stars Season 35. She is partnered with professional dancer Jan Ravnik [1][2][3]. Since Season 35 is currently in progress, there is no historical placement record available for Tatyana Ali or for Jan Ravnik in the context of this specific season [1][2][3].
Jenna Dewan is also a celebrity contestant in Season 35. She is participating as a contestant on Dancing with the Stars Season 35 [4][5][6][7]. Jenna Dewan has not previously competed on the show as a celebrity contestant, and consequently, she does not have a historical placement record for Dancing with the Stars [4][5][6][7]. The provided information does not disclose the name of Jenna Dewan's professional partner for Season 35, nor does it specify any historical placement record for her partner [4][5][6][7].
Sources (7)
- 1Tatyana Ali | Dancing with the Stars Wiki | Fandomdancingwiththestars.fandom.com
- 2Tatyana Ali Joins 'Dancing With the Stars' Season 35 - Yahooyahoo.com
- 3'Dancing With the Stars' Season 35 cast list and partners confirmeddecider.com
- 4Jenna Dewan defends 'DWTS' casting after 'Step Up,' Janet...ew.com
- 5Jenna Dewan Pushes Back on DWTS Advantage Claimsaol.com
- 6'Step Up' Star Jenna Dewan Responds to 'DWTS' Casting...thewrap.com
- 7Jenna Dewan Defends 'Dancing with the Stars' Casting...imdb.com
10. How do Taylor Hanson's and Tyler Cameron's public fanbases and social media engagement compare as potential drivers for viewer voting in Season 35?
| Taylor Hanson DWTS Score | 16/30 [1] |
|---|---|
| Tyler Cameron DWTS Score | 17/30 [1] |
| Prediction Market Pricing (Sept 2026) | Very similar market pricing for Top 3 finish [2] |
Taylor Hanson and Tyler Cameron attract different fanbases. Taylor Hanson's fanbase is rooted in his extensive career with the pop-rock band Hanson, whereas Tyler Cameron's following primarily stems from his appearances on The Bachelorette and other reality and lifestyle media projects [3][1]. For the Dancing with the Stars Season 35 premiere, Taylor Hanson scored 16 out of 30, while Tyler Cameron received a score of 17 out of 30 [1].
Prediction markets indicate similar potential for both contestants. As of September 2026, market pricing showed very comparable odds for both Taylor Hanson and Tyler Cameron regarding a Top 3 finish, which suggests bettors perceive their potential as closely aligned [2].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Dancing with the Stars Season 35 premiered on September 15, 2026, with a two-night event that concluded on September 16, 2026 [1][2][3]. The season features 16 celebrity contestants, including Jenna Dewan, Harry Shum Jr., Giada De Laurentiis, Tatyana Ali, and Tyler Cameron [4][3]. Following its special two-night premiere, the show airs weekly on Tuesdays at 8 p.m. ET on ABC and Disney+ [4][5].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 07, 2027
- Closes: December 31, 2026
Sources (7)
- 1Dancing with the Stars (American TV series) season 35en.wikipedia.org
- 2'Dancing with the Stars' season 35: What to know about the cast, premiere date and more - Good Morning Americagoodmorningamerica.com
- 3‘Dancing With the Stars’ Season 35 Episode Schedule, How to Watch & Stream, Finale Date Infojustjared.com
- 4THE BALLROOM IS BACK! ‘DANCING WITH THE STARS’ CELEBRATES SEASON 35 WITH A SPECIAL TWO-NIGHT PREMIERE ON ABC AND DISNEY+detpress.com
- 5'Dancing With the Stars' Season 35: Premiere Date, Cast, Judges, and More Updatestvinsider.com
- 6What Time Is ‘Dancing With the Stars’ Season 35? Premiere Details!cosmopolitan.com
- 7‘Dancing With the Stars’ Live Blog: Which Male Will Be Eliminated on Night 1? - IMDbimdb.com
13. Related News
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