Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Eric Adams to go on Dancing with the Stars, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The price for this market has remained stable and sideways, trading within a narrow four-point range for its entire history. The probability started at 14.0% and is currently priced at 11.0%. Trading has established a clear support level at 10.0% and a resistance level at 14.0%. The market has tested both ends of this range but has not experienced any significant breakouts or breakdowns. The overall price action reflects a lack of new information to meaningfully shift trader sentiment in either direction.
The provided context does not point to a specific event that caused the minor price fluctuations within this established range. While reports have announced other confirmed contestants for the upcoming season, this news has not caused a significant drop in price on this specific chart. Market volume is exceptionally low, with only 95 total contracts traded. This low level of activity suggests a lack of strong conviction from traders and means the price may be set by a very small number of participants. The persistent, though low, probability pricing suggests a small contingent of the market holds a belief that the event could still occur, while the inability to break above 14% shows a clear lack of broader speculative interest.
  • Producers explicitly stated intent to exclude political figures for Season 35.
  • No announcements, rumors, or mentions of Eric Adams for recent seasons.
  • The full DWTS cast typically reveals in early September.
  • Eric Adams' post-mayoral profile differs from past political contestants.
  • DWTS producers often make last-minute, controversial casting choices.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Eric Adams 11.0% 7.1% Eric Adams is a sitting mayor, and there is no public indication he will participate in the show.

Current Context

Eric Adams' DWTS participation is priced at 0% by prediction markets. As of May 2026, prediction markets indicate a 0% probability of Eric Adams participating in Dancing with the Stars this year [1][2]. The confirmed contestants for Dancing with the Stars Season 35, set to premiere in Fall 2026, include Ciara Miller from Summer House and Maura Higgins from Love Island and The Traitors [3][4][5]. No rumors, official confirmations, or existing cast lists for the 2026 season currently feature Eric Adams [6][7][5].
Eric Adams is no longer mayor, with a pro disliking politicians. Adams concluded his term as NYC mayor on January 1, 2026, and subsequently acquired Albanian citizenship in April 2026 [8]. Reflecting on casting choices, Dancing with the Stars professional dancer Val Chmerkovskiy publicly stated in April 2026 that he hopes to see "less politicians" featured on the show in the future [9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Will Eric Adams go on Dancing with the Stars this year? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  2. 2Will Eric Adams go on Dancing with the Stars this year? — Prediction Market | OutcomeCastoutcomecast.com
  3. 3'Dancing With the Stars' Season 35 2026 Cast: All We Knowentertainmentnow.com
  4. 4Dancing With the Stars Season 35 Celebrity Cast Revealedsoaps.sheknows.com
  5. 5Dancing with the Stars (American TV series) season 35en.wikipedia.org
  6. 6‘Dancing with the Stars’ Season 35 Cast Rumorscosmopolitan.com
  7. 7Here’s the Rumored Cast for ‘Dancing with the Stars’ Season 35 in 2026parade.com
  8. 8Eric Adamsen.wikipedia.org
  9. 9Why Val Chmerkovskiy Hopes to See ‘Less’ Politicians Compete on ‘Dancing With the Stars’usmagazine.com
  10. 10DWTS pro Val Chmerkovskiy issues major plea for future show casts - AOLaol.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to "Yes" if Eric Adams appears on an episode of Dancing with the Stars Season 35 before January 1, 2027, with the outcome verified by ABC. Appearances solely in advertisements or non-show-specific prerecorded audio clips do not count towards a "Yes" resolution. The market opened on January 16, 2026, and will close either upon the outcome occurring or by January 1, 2027, at 10:00 AM EST. Insider trading by individuals with material non-public information or who are employed by Source Agencies is prohibited.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Eric Adams $0.11 $0.91 11%

Market Discussion

Prediction markets currently imply a 0% chance of Eric Adams appearing on "Dancing with the Stars" in 2026 [1]. His name is absent from all current cast rumors and predictions for Season 35, which has confirmed two contestants and typically announces the full lineup before its fall premiere [2]. This aligns with a professional dancer's advocacy for fewer politicians on the show, and Adams' mayoral term concluded on December 31, 2025 [3].

Sources (3)
  1. 1Will Eric Adams go on Dancing with the Stars this year? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  2. 2Dancing with the Stars (American TV series) season 35en.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Why Val Chmerkovskiy Hopes to See ‘Less’ Politicians Compete on ‘Dancing With the Stars’usmagazine.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 73 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score85Strong
Trade quality20% of score24Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score73Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
85Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesMoves carried volume Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
31Very thin

Hard to fill near the screen price

1 contract

Eric Adams31
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
72Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

1 contract

Eric Adams72
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Eric Adams100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
24Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 31 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 20.3c slippage (~254% of a 8c contract)

$1,000 order: 59.5c slippage (~744% of a 8c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Eric Adams31Market scoreLiquidity31Move quality72Rule clarity100
Why 31
Liquidity
31 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
72 · Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

5. What casting 'archetypes' are evident from the confirmed Season 35 contestants, and does a slot remain that a figure like Eric Adams could plausibly fill?

Confirmed Season 35 ContestantsCiara Miller and Maura Higgins (announced April 22, 2026 [1][2])
Typical DWTS Cast Size12-14 celebrities [3][4][5][6][7][8][9]
Remaining Open Slots for Season 3510-12 (given 2 confirmed contestants) [3][4][5][6][7][8][9]
Two confirmed contestants establish a common reality TV archetype for Season 35. Ciara Miller and Maura Higgins were announced as contestants for Dancing with the Stars Season 35 on April 22, 2026, representing a common reality television casting archetype for the show [1][2]. With DWTS casts typically comprising 12-14 celebrities, and Season 34 featuring 14 contestants, these initial announcements leave approximately 10-12 slots open for Season 35 [3][4][5][6][7][8][9].
Historically, political figures have participated, indicating a potential slot for Eric Adams. Dancing with the Stars has previously included political figures such as Tucker Carlson in Season 3, Rick Perry in Season 23, and Sean Spicer in Season 28 [1][2][10]. Based on these past precedents, a figure like Eric Adams could plausibly fill one of the remaining contestant slots. However, there is currently no mention of Eric Adams in contexts related to DWTS, and a professional dancer recently voiced a preference for fewer politicians in future casts [10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Pure Dancing with the StarsThe Usual Suspects: The Typecasting of DWTS, Part I | Pure Dancing with the Starspuredwts.com
  2. 2Pure Dancing with the StarsDWTS Season 11 Casting Rumors – The Typecasting of Season 11, Part I | Pure Dancing with the Starspuredwts.com
  3. 3'Dancing With the Stars' Season 35 2026 Cast: All We Knowentertainmentnow.com
  4. 4Confirmed and Rumored Contestants for 'Dancing with the Stars' Season 35 Revealedyahoo.com
  5. 5Dancing with the Stars (American TV series) season 35en.wikipedia.org
  6. 6'Dancing with the Stars' 2025 Cast Revealed!abc.com
  7. 7Dancing With The Stars Season 34 Cast, Full List DWTS ABCtvline.com
  8. 8'Dancing With the Stars' Cast: Meet Season 34 Celebs and Prosvariety.com
  9. 9Dancing with the Stars (American TV series)en.wikipedia.org
  10. 10DWTS pro Val Chmerkovskiy issues major plea for future casts - TV - Entertainment - Daily Express USthe-express.com

6. How does Eric Adams' public profile in his post-mayoral capacity compare to those of past political contestants like Sean Spicer or Rick Perry at the time of their casting?

Eric Adams post-mayoral activities startJanuary 2026, promoting crypto, international travel, consulting [1][2][3]
Sean Spicer DWTS gapApproximately 2 years post-White House [4]
Rick Perry DWTS gapApproximately 1.5 years post-Texas governor [5][6]
Eric Adams' post-mayoral public profile differs from past political contestants. Active since January 2026, his post-mayoral endeavors include promoting a crypto venture, engaging in international travel, and planning for consulting work [1][2][3]. He was granted honorary Albanian citizenship in April 2026 [2]. This profile stands apart from those of Sean Spicer and Rick Perry at the time of their casting on Dancing with the Stars (DWTS), as their post-political activities prior to the show involved distinct pursuits [4][7][8][5][6]. Currently, Eric Adams is not mentioned in DWTS 2026 rumors [9][10][11].
Sean Spicer joined DWTS two years after leaving the White House. He appeared on season 28 of Dancing with the Stars in 2019, approximately two years after his tenure in the White House concluded in 2017 [4]. Before his DWTS casting, Spicer released a book, participated in speaking engagements, and held a brief role on ExtraTV [7][8]. His appearance on the show earned him between $125,000 and $345,000 [12].
Rick Perry appeared on DWTS after his governorship and a failed presidential run. He was cast on Dancing with the Stars season 23 in fall 2016, roughly 1.5 years after his term as Texas governor ended in January 2015 [5][6]. Perry's participation in the show followed an unsuccessful 2016 presidential campaign, and he was eliminated from the competition in week 3 [5][13][6].
Sources (13)
  1. 1Former Mayor Adams returns to promote crypto ventureny1.com
  2. 2Eric Adams Left the Mayoralty in the Most Adams Way Possiblenymag.com
  3. 3Eric Adamsen.wikipedia.org
  4. 4For Sean Spicer, the Revolving Door Led to a Dance Routine in a...nytimes.com
  5. 5Rick Perrydancingwiththestars.fandom.com
  6. 6Rick Perry two-steps his way onto Dancing With The Stars | CNN Politicscnn.com
  7. 7What Is Sean Spicer's Job Now? The 'Dancing With The Stars' Contestant Can't Leave The White House Behind Himbustle.com
  8. 8What is Sean Spicer doing now? What we know as Tom Bergeron reveals reason why he left DWTSprimetimer.com
  9. 9'Dancing with the Stars' Rumored Celebrity Contestants: 12 Names Might Be Joining Cast, 4 Already Confirmed - IMDbimdb.com
  10. 10‘Dancing with the Stars’ Season 35 Cast Rumorscosmopolitan.com
  11. 11PARADE Magazine - Here’s the Rumored Cast for ‘Dancing... | Facebookfacebook.com
  12. 12Sean Spicerdancingwiththestars.fandom.com
  13. 13'DWTS' Season 23: Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry Booted From Ballroom in Week 3abcnews.go.com

7. What specific events, such as a major public scandal or a sudden need for a publicity boost, could compel DWTS producers to make a last-minute, high-controversy casting choice like Adams for the Fall 2026 season?

Eric Adams DWTS StatusNo involvement reported as of May 12, 2026 [1][2]
DWTS Casting StrategyHistory of last-minute changes, often with controversial figures for buzz [3][4][5]
Adams Recent ControversiesAide bribery and crypto promotion in January 2026 [6][7]
Dancing With The Stars producers frequently implement last-minute, controversial casting. Producers consistently incorporate contentious public figures to generate buzz and audience interest, a strategy demonstrated by past instances where changes were made with very short notice. For example, Jenn Tran received only 45-minute notice for her appearance, reflecting the show's capability for swift adjustments [3][4][5].
A sudden need for publicity or a new scandal could prompt Adams's casting. As of May 12, 2026, there have been no reports indicating Eric Adams's involvement with Dancing With The Stars [1][2]. However, a scenario where the show requires a significant publicity boost, or if a major new public scandal were to emerge around Adams, could compel producers to consider him for a last-minute, high-controversy casting choice [3][4][5]. While no new scandals were found for Adams in May 2026, his recent past in January 2026 includes events such as an aide bribery case and a crypto promotion, highlighting his potential to attract controversial public attention [6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Eric Adamsen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2Mayoralty of Eric Adamsen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Jenn Tran confirms that she was 'last-minute' DWTS addition - TV - Entertainment - Daily Express USthe-express.com
  4. 4‘Dancing With the Stars’ Steps Up With Replacement for Artem Chigvintsevcollider.com
  5. 5‘DWTS’ made a major switch two days before the cast reveal — and we think it could cost one contestantmeaww.com
  6. 6Top aide to former NYC Mayor Eric Adams took a bribe of diamond earrings, prosecutors say - Newsdaynewsday.com
  7. 7Former Mayor Adams returns to promote crypto ventureny1.com

8. Based on past seasons, what is the typical timeline for the full cast reveal for DWTS Season 35, and do any credible industry leaks mention Adams?

Typical Full Cast RevealEarly September [1][2]
Season 35 First Cast AnnouncementApril 22, 2026 [1][3][4]
Eric Adams in Season 35 rumorsNot mentioned [5][6][7][8]
The full cast for Dancing with the Stars typically reveals in early September. This announcement usually precedes a mid-September premiere [1][2]. Historically, this pattern has been consistent; for instance, the full cast for Season 34 was revealed on September 3, 2025, and for Season 33 on September 4, 2024 [9][10][2][11]. However, for Season 35, there has been a deviation from this timeline, as the first two cast members, Ciara Miller and Maura Higgins, were announced significantly earlier on April 22, 2026 [1][3][4].
Eric Adams is not mentioned in credible Season 35 industry leaks. There are no credible industry leaks or rumors linking his name to Dancing with the Stars Season 35 [5][6][7][8]. While a prediction market does exist concerning his potential participation, this market is not supported by any cited leaks or rumors [7][8]. Current rumors for Season 35 cast members include individuals such as Rob Rausch and Tayshia Adams, with Flavor Flav also mentioned in fan speculation [5][6].
Sources (11)
  1. 1'Dancing With the Stars' Season 35: Premiere Date, Cast, Judges, and More Updatestvinsider.com
  2. 2'Dancing With The Stars' Cast Reveal for Season 34deadline.com
  3. 3‘Dancing With the Stars’ Season 35 Castcosmopolitan.com
  4. 4Dancing with the Stars (American TV series) season 35en.wikipedia.org
  5. 5Instagraminstagram.com
  6. 6‘Dancing with the Stars’ Season 35 Cast Rumorscosmopolitan.com
  7. 7Will Eric Adams go on Dancing with the Stars this year? — Prediction Market | OutcomeCastoutcomecast.com
  8. 8Will Eric Adams go on Dancing with the Stars this year? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  9. 9Dancing With the Stars reveals full season 34 cast: '90s nostalgia hits, Olympians, and moreew.com
  10. 10Dancing with the Stars (American TV series) season 34en.wikipedia.org
  11. 11Dancing with the Stars 2024 Cast Revealed! | Dancing with the Starsabc.com

9. What is the prevailing sentiment from 'Dancing with the Stars' producers and key cast members regarding the inclusion of political figures in Season 35?

Producer StanceAvoiding political figures for Season 35 due to societal divisions (September 2025 [1])
Val Chmerkovskiy's ViewCalled for 'less politicians' to maintain unity (April 2026 [2][3][4])
Cheryl Burke's AdviceAdvised to avoid politics, calling it a 'feel-good show' (May 2026 [5])
Producers aim to avoid political figures in Season 35. In September 2025, producers explicitly stated their intention to exclude political figures from the milestone Season 35 of 'Dancing with the Stars' [1]. This decision stems from a desire to address societal divisions and uphold the program's integrity and appeal [1].
Key cast members also oppose including political figures. Val Chmerkovskiy, in April 2026, advocated for "less politicians" on the show to safeguard its unity [2][3][4]. Similarly, Cheryl Burke recommended in May 2026 that 'Dancing with the Stars' should steer clear of politics, emphasizing its role as a "feel-good show" [5]. These statements from cast members reinforce the overall sentiment that political discourse should remain separate from the show's entertainment focus.
Sources (5)
  1. 1‘Dancing With the Stars’ Team on Casting the Milestone Season, Switching Up Pros and Steering Clear of Politicsyahoo.com
  2. 2Why Val Chmerkovskiy Wants ‘Less’ Politicians on ‘DWTS’yahoo.com
  3. 3Why Val Chmerkovskiy Wants 'Less' Politicians on 'DWTS'tvinsider.com
  4. 4DWTS' Val Chmerkovskiy Wants 'Less' Politicians on the Showusmagazine.com
  5. 5Why Cheryl Burke Says DWTS Shouldn't 'Involve' Politicsusmagazine.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The Kalshi prediction market currently shows a 0% probability for Eric Adams appearing on Dancing with the Stars Season 35 before 2027-01-01 [1][2]. This low probability is supported by the absence of any announcements, rumors, or mentions of Eric Adams in casting for seasons 33, 34, or 35 [3][4][5][6]. The market explicitly states that it will only resolve to "Yes" if he is part of the official cast and appears on air as a contestant, with rumors being insufficient for a "Yes" resolution [2].
Further factors diminishing the likelihood include Eric Adams' mayoral term concluding after December 31, 2025, with Zohran Mamdani succeeding him on January 1, 2026 [7][8], meaning he would not be serving as mayor during the Season 35 premiere in fall 2026 (likely mid-Sept) [6]. While the first two cast members, Ciara Miller and Maura Higgins, were announced on April 22, 2026, Eric Adams was not among them [6][9][10]. Additionally, DWTS dancer Val Chmerkovskiy expressed a desire for "less politicians" on the show in April 2026 [11][12], which represents a bearish sentiment against political figures joining the cast.

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: January 01, 2027
  • Closes: January 01, 2027
Sources (12)
  1. 1Will Eric Adams go on Dancing with the Stars this year? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  2. 2Will Eric Adams go on Dancing with the Stars this year? — Prediction Market | OutcomeCastoutcomecast.com
  3. 3'Dancing With The Stars' Season 33 Cast Revealed: Full 'DWTS' Listtvline.com
  4. 4Dancing with the Stars (American TV series) season 33en.wikipedia.org
  5. 5Dancing With The Stars Season 34 Cast, Full List DWTS ABCtvline.com
  6. 6Dancing with the Stars (American TV series) season 35en.wikipedia.org
  7. 7Eric Adamsen.wikipedia.org
  8. 8Mayoralty of Eric Adamsen.wikipedia.org
  9. 9'Dancing With the Stars' Season 35 2026 Cast: All We Knowentertainmentnow.com
  10. 10‘DWTS’ Season 35 Confirms First 2 Cast Membersyahoo.com
  11. 11Why Val Chmerkovskiy Hopes to See ‘Less’ Politicians Compete on ‘Dancing With the Stars’usmagazine.com
  12. 12DWTS pro Val Chmerkovskiy issues major plea for future show casts - AOLaol.com