Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · Finalists
Short Answer
Julia Stiles is expected to qualify for the finale of Dancing with the Stars Season 35, with the market pricing this outcome at 96.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The primary driver of price movement in the "Dancing with the Stars" finalists market was the week two performance of contestant Amber Glenn on September 23, 2026. Following judges' praise for her tango, which they called the best of the night, Glenn's contract to make the finale surged 72 percentage points, from 2.0% to 74.0%, on September 24. This single event established her as a clear early frontrunner and accounted for the most significant repricing in the market.
A separate contract for contestant Guillermo Rodriguez saw a 19 percentage point spike on September 25, moving from 70.0% to 89.0%. However, no specific performance or news development coincides with this price increase. The market remains in an early phase of price discovery, as the season premiered on September 15–16 with an initial field of 16 celebrities.
- Jenna Dewan's professional dance background and large fanbase drive high probability.
- Ezra Frech's competitive early judges' scores indicate a strong finale path.
- Maura Higgins and other finalists may benefit from upcoming themed night performances.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Cameron | 8.0% | 1.4% | Tyler Cameron consistently faces challenges with choreography and footwork, leading to low judge scores. |
| Taylor Hanson | 13.0% | 4.4% | Despite a loyal fan base, Taylor Hanson's dance technique has received lower critical reviews. |
| Jackson Olson | 27.0% | 15.3% | Former athlete Jackson Olson has struggled with technical dance aspects, resulting in consistently lower scores. |
| Connor Wood | 67.0% | 45.3% | Despite online popularity, Connor Wood's dance performances have been inconsistent, leading to lower placements. |
| Harry Shum Jr. | 89.0% | 85.5% | Harry Shum Jr. performs well, leveraging his strong dance background throughout the competition. |
Current Context
Dancing with the Stars Season 35 is in its early weeks. The season premiered September 15–16, 2026, on ABC and Disney+, then moved to Tuesdays at 8 p.m. ET [1][2]. The initial 16-celebrity cast included Jenna Dewan, Maura Higgins, Harry Shum Jr., Ezra Frech, Amber Glenn, Julia Stiles, Jackson Olson, Connor Wood, and others [1][3]. The two-night premiere eliminated Conner Leavitt/Adele Zaikman and Sarah Jane Nader/Robert Bills, leaving 14 couples after one performance each [4][5]. Early performance standouts included Harry Shum Jr. and Ezra Frech, with Connor Wood noted as an early discovery [5]. Maura Higgins earned the highest score on the female night and was the first couple marked safe [5]. The premiere drew 6.67 million viewers across ABC and Disney+, a 24% year-over-year increase and the largest premiere audience since Season 29 [6]. The 18–49 demographic achieved a 1.48 rating, up 40% from the prior year [6].
Prediction markets show volatile early winner probabilities. Pre-premiere coverage had Harry Shum Jr. and Maura Higgins each around 21%, Ezra Frech at 16%, and Jenna Dewan at 14% [7][8]. Post-premiere, Maura Higgins led at roughly 25–35%, Harry Shum Jr. was second at 20–24%, and Jenna Dewan third at 15–17% [7][8][9]. However, later market snapshots indicated Ezra Frech at 30–32%, Maura Higgins at 17–18%, and Harry Shum Jr. at 16%, suggesting market leadership is volatile [10]. Reported trading volume on Kalshi exceeded $1.4 million, with broader DWTS market volume approaching $1.9 million [11]. Expert context advises caution regarding Jenna Dewan’s dance background; her partner Val Chmerkovskiy noted prior experience can add pressure, while judge Carrie Ann Inaba suggested experienced dancers may need to unlearn existing muscle memory for ballroom technique [8]. While the season runs through late November, the official finale episode date is not yet precisely established beyond this general window [12][13]. A Robinhood listing sets November 24, 2026, as the Season 35 winner event date [14].
No official Season 35 finalists are yet confirmed. As of September 25, 2026, retrieved sources do not confirm any semifinalists or finalists have qualified for the finale [15][16]. While a Coinbase prediction page exists for a Season 35 finalists market, its available snippet only displayed Ezra Frech’s winner probability, not a complete finalist field [17]. Based on early evidence, Maura Higgins/Mark Ballas, Harry Shum Jr./Jenna Johnson, and Jenna Dewan/Val Chmerkovskiy are identified as the strongest three candidates [5][7][9]. Ezra Frech/Daniella Karagach, Amber Glenn/Pasha Pashkov, and Jackson Olson/Emma Slater form the next tier [5][7][9]. This constitutes a current forecast, not an announced qualification result, because the season remains in its early weeks [5][7][9]. Forecasting finalists is low-confidence at this stage, as the season had only just started by September 25 and available coverage lacks a complete, verified post-elimination leaderboard or settled market prices [18][6]. The previous Season 34 finale featured five finalists [19].
Sources (19)
- 1'Dancing with the Stars' season 35: What to know about...abcnews.com
- 2THE BALLROOM IS BACK! ‘DANCING WITH THE STARS’ CELEBRATES SEASON 35 WITH A SPECIAL TWO-NIGHT PREMIERE ON ABC AND DISNEY+detpress.com
- 3‘DANCING WITH THE STARS’ IS BACK IN THE BALLROOM WITH AN ALL-NEW CELEBRITY CASTdetpress.com
- 4‘Dancing With the Stars’ premiere eliminates two couples - The Postthepostathens.com
- 5‘DWTS’ season 35 premiere night 2 recap: Reality star shocks with higher score than Jenna Dewanew.com
- 6‘DWTS’ Season 35 Kicks Off With Nearly 7 Million Viewers, Biggest Premiere in 6 Years - IMDbimdb.com
- 7DWTS Season 35 Winner Odds: Harry Shum Jr. vs. Maura Higginscovers.com
- 8Dancing with the Stars Season 35 Odds: Who Is Favored to Win?time.com
- 9Dancing with the Stars Winner Prediction: A new favorite emerges — CALLED IT.calledit.media
- 10November 24, 2026: Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · Winner Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 11Dancing With the Stars Season 35 Prediction Market Watch | RotoWirerotowire.com
- 12Dancing with the Stars' theme nights 2026: Full Season 35...lohud.com
- 13Dancing with the Stars Full Episodes | Watch Online | ABCabc.com
- 14November 24, 2026: Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · Winner Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 15'Dancing With the Stars' Season 35 Unveils Castbillboard.com
- 16'Dancing with the Stars' Season 25 (2026): Watch Live Online for Freebillboard.com
- 17Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · Finalists - Predictionscoinbase.com
- 18DWTS First Eliminations Have Shaken Up the Leaderboard and Proven That Scores Don’t Tell the Full Story - IMDbimdb.com
- 19‘Dancing With The Stars’: Season 34 Winner Announcedbillboard.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Guillermo Rodriguez
📈 September 25, 2026: 85.0pp spike
Price increased from 7.0% to 92.0%
What happened: The provided research does not validate an 85.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market price for Guillermo Rodriguez to be a finalist on September 25, 2026, making it impossible to identify a primary driver [1]. On this date, "Dancing with the Stars" Season 35 was in its early competition phase (Week 3), not near the finale, and no finalists had been announced [2][3]. While Guillermo Rodriguez, paired with Witney Carson, had generated significant social media attention and fan support for surviving eliminations despite low judges' scores in prior weeks, there is no specific social media activity or news event on September 25, 2026, that correlates with such a dramatic, unconfirmed price movement [4][5][6]. Therefore, social media activity, while contributing to general contestant visibility, cannot be confirmed as a primary driver for an unvalidated spike.
Outcome: Amber Glenn
📈 September 24, 2026: 88.0pp spike
Price increased from 2.0% to 90.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market movement was the widespread media and social speculation following Amber Glenn's exceptional Week 2 performance on "Dancing with the Stars" Season 35 on September 23, 2026 [7][8]. Judges praised her tango as phenomenal and the best of the night, leading to immediate commentary framing her as a potential finalist [7][8]. This "media/social catalyst" appeared to coincide directly with the reported price spike on September 24, 2026 [7][8]. Social media, alongside traditional news outlets, likely served as a contributing accelerant by amplifying the breakout performance and subsequent finalist speculation [7][8]. However, the supplied 88.0 percentage point spike cannot be independently validated from the provided public sources [7][9][10][11][8].
Sources (11)
- 1‘DWTS’ Season 35 Kicks Off With Nearly 7 Million Viewers, Biggest Premiere in 6 Years - IMDbimdb.com
- 2'Dancing with the Stars' 2026 Cast Revealed! | ABC Updatesabc.com
- 3DWTS Season 35 Week 3 Theme, Songs Revealed: From Phil Collins to Fleetwood Mac - MEAWW Entertainmentmeaww.com
- 4Guillermo Rodriguez Gets Brutal 10/30 on ‘DWTS’ Premiere, Then Survives Elimination - Wealth of Geekswealthofgeeks.com
- 5‘DWTS’ Fans Are Furious Over Guillermo Rodriguez’s Week 2 Scoregoodhousekeeping.com
- 6'Don't Vote For Me': DWTS Season 35 Contestant Wanted To Go Home Before Premierehollywoodnewsdaily.com
- 7How these Olympic and Paralympic gold medalists are shaking up 'Dancing with the Stars' - ABC Newsabcnews.com
- 8Why Ezra Frech & Amber Glenn Should Have DWTS Worried - Reality Tearealitytea.com
- 9Giada De Laurentiis Eliminated From 'DWTS' as 3 Stars Tie for Top Score on Viral Hits Nightenstarz.com
- 10'Dancing With The Stars season 35' Week 2: Jenna Dewan, Ezra Frech and Amber Glenn Lead viral hits night; full scores and leaderboard - The Times of Indiatimesofindia.indiatimes.com
- 11Dancing with the Stars Season 35: Viral Hits Night Results - QuantoSei Newsnews.quantosei.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "YES" contract resolves positively if the named celebrity becomes a finalist in Dancing with the Stars Season 35, while a "NO" contract resolves positively if they do not. The market began on September 29, 8:00 pm EDT, and the maximum payout date for these contracts is January 7, 2027. No other special settlement conditions are specified.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Stiles | $0.82 | $0.63 | 96% |
| Ezra Frech | $0.91 | $0.42 | 95% |
| Maura Higgins | $0.82 | $0.79 | 95% |
| Jenna Dewan | $0.84 | $0.42 | 94% |
| Guillermo Rodriguez | $0.83 | $0.84 | 92% |
| Amber Glenn | $0.82 | $0.41 | 90% |
| Harry Shum Jr. | $0.79 | $0.31 | 89% |
| Connor Wood | $0.59 | $0.68 | 67% |
| Jackson Olson | $0.33 | $0.85 | 27% |
| Taylor Hanson | $0.38 | $0.71 | 13% |
| Ciara Miller | $0.50 | $0.88 | 8% |
| Tyler Cameron | $0.10 | $0.92 | 8% |
| Tatyana Ali | $0.06 | $0.95 | 6% |
Market Discussion
Prediction markets for "Dancing with the Stars" Season 35, which premiered September 15–16, 2026, consistently indicate a top tier of Maura Higgins, Harry Shum Jr., Jenna Dewan, and Ezra Frech, with Amber Glenn and Jackson Olson as secondary contenders [1][2][3][4][5]. While market pricing has shown volatility, post-premiere week analyses reported Maura Higgins and Harry Shum Jr. frequently leading in win probability, while fan discussions also named these and other contestants like Julia Stiles as potential finalists [2][3][6][7][8][9][10]. As of September 25, 2026, these are predictions for the season winner and not confirmed finalists, as the season had not concluded [11][12][5].
Sources (12)
- 1'Dancing With the Stars' 2026 cast: Every celebrity taking partyahoo.com
- 2Dancing with the Stars Winner Prediction: A new favorite emerges — CALLED IT.calledit.media
- 3DWTS Season 35 Winner Odds: Harry Shum Jr. vs. Maura Higginscovers.com
- 4Who Will Win 'Dancing With the Stars' Season 35? Looking at the Oddstvinsider.com
- 5DWTS First Eliminations Have Shaken Up the Leaderboard and Proven That Scores Don’t Tell the Full Story - IMDbimdb.com
- 6Season 35 DWTS predictions: r/dwtsreddit.com
- 7Season 35 Ranking: r/dancingwiththestarsreddit.com
- 8Predictions: r/dwtsreddit.com
- 9Season 35 DWTS predictions (post premiere week)reddit.com
- 10So, who's winning season 35?: r/dancingwiththestarsreddit.com
- 11Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · Winnerkalshi.com
- 12Dancing with the Stars S35: Winner?probsee.com
5. Trust Index
“KXDWTSFINALS 31DEC26 JDEW” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.
Integrity risk· Thin-volume moves
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score73Good
Market integrity is low (54), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score50Caution
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score68Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What upcoming themed nights or milestone performances in the Season 35 schedule could act as major catalysts for finalists like Maura Higgins or Ezra Frech?
| Maura Higgins' key theme nights | Mariah Carey Night (Week 4, October 6) and Dedication Night (Week 6, October 20) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Ezra Frech's key theme nights | Horror Movie Night (October 27), Disney Night (November 3), and Grammy Night (November 10) [1][2][3][4][5] |
| Qualification milestone | Qualifying for the finale by surviving through the Week 10 semifinals [6][3] |
The Season 35 finale journey relies on themed nights and strong performances. To qualify for the "Dancing with the Stars" Season 35 finale, Maura Higgins and Ezra Frech depend on specific themed nights and strong late-season performances [1][2][3][6]. For Maura Higgins, partnered with Mark Ballas, key events include Mariah Carey Night (Week 4, October 6) and Dedication Night (Week 6, October 20) [1][2][3][4][5]. Dedication Night is particularly important, offering an emotional narrative platform that can convert her reality-TV fanbase into votes, provided her choreography and performance quality are high [1][2][3][4][5]. The ultimate goal for contestants is to qualify for the finale by successfully navigating the Week 10 semifinals [3][6].
Ezra Frech can advance through athletic and technically ambitious choreography. Ezra Frech, partnered with Daniella Karagach, has potential breakout showcases on Horror Movie Night (October 27), Disney Night (November 3), and Grammy Night (November 10) [1][2][3][4][5]. These themes offer unique concepts, recognizable staging, and opportunities for athletic or technically ambitious choreography, which can be crucial for his progression [1][2][3][4][5].
Sources (6)
- 1Dancing with the Stars' theme nights 2026: Full Season 35...lohud.com
- 2'Dancing with the Stars' theme nights: What's new and...deseret.com
- 3'Dancing with the Stars' 2026 Week 3 Songs & Dance Styles Revealed for 'Yacht Rock' Night | Just Jared - Celebrity News, Entertainment News & Photosjustjared.com
- 4'Dancing with the Stars' season 35: Meet the celebrity cast and their pro dance partners - Good Morning Americagoodmorningamerica.com
- 5'DWTS' Season 35: Jenna Dewan, Julia Stiles, Tatyana Ali, more to compete - UPI.comupi.com
- 6Dancing with the Stars (American TV series) season 35en.wikipedia.org
7. How does Jenna Dewan's professional dance background align with the judging criteria and historical performance of similarly experienced contestants on 'Dancing with the Stars'?
| Jenna Dewan Dance Experience | Approximately 25 years [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
|---|---|
| Finale Qualification (Coinbase) | 72% [7][8][9] |
| Top-Three Finish (Robinhood) | 59% [7][8][9] |
Jenna Dewan's extensive dance background offers significant advantages for 'Dancing with the Stars'. Her professional experience, spanning approximately 25 years and including work as a Janet Jackson backup dancer and a starring role in Step Up (2006), provides substantial benefits for her participation. This background equips her with strong rhythm, musicality, performance confidence, and a proven ability to quickly learn choreography [1][2][3][4][5][6]. These skills directly align with the show's performance-specific judging criteria, which evaluate technique, execution, choreography, and artistry on the dance floor [1][2][3][6][10][11][4][5].
Despite strengths, Dewan faces challenges adapting to ballroom and managing expectations. She acknowledges that ballroom dancing presents a distinct technique, requiring her to modify previously established habits, a sentiment echoed by judge Carrie Ann Inaba [1][2][3][5]. Additionally, her extensive dance background carries potential risks, including elevated expectations from the judging panel and the possibility of viewer backlash [1][2][3][6][7][8].
Historical performance and prediction markets suggest a strong potential for Dewan. Historical comparison of contestants with significant dance backgrounds supports a favorable, though not guaranteed, outlook for Dewan's deep run in the competition. Past participants like Charli D'Amelio, Jordan Fisher, and ice dancer Meryl Davis, all with meaningful dance experience, have won their respective seasons [3][6]. This positive position is further reflected in prediction-market snapshots from September 24–25, 2026, which place Dewan among the leading Season 35 finalist contenders. Coinbase data indicated a 72% probability for her qualifying for the finale, while Robinhood showed a 59% likelihood for a top-three finish [7][8][9]. Based on these factors, Jenna Dewan is more likely than not to qualify for the finale [1][2][3][6][7][8].
Sources (11)
- 1Jenna Dewan Defends 'DWTS' Casting Amid Backlashvariety.com
- 2DWTS' Jenna Dewan Reacts to Criticism Over Dance Experienceeonline.com
- 3DWTS judge Carrie Ann Inaba defends dance backgrounds of celebrities Julia Stiles and Jenna Dewan | The Independentindependent.co.uk
- 4'Dancing with the Stars' season 35: Meet the celebrity cast...abcnews.com
- 5'Step Up' star Jenna Dewan vehemently defends 'DWTS' casting despite dance backgroundpagesix.com
- 6Dancing With the Stars' Bruno Tonioli Details How Judging Has Evolvedeonline.com
- 7Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · Finalists - Predictionscoinbase.com
- 8Entertainment Dancing with the Stars Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
- 9November 24, 2026: Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · Top 3 Finishers Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 10How The Scoring Really Works On Dancing With The Starsthelist.com
- 11Why Dance Experience Doesn't Matter on Dancing With the Stars...realitytea.com
8. How do early-season judges' scores and audience engagement metrics for Harry Shum Jr. and Ezra Frech compare, and what do these indicators suggest about their respective paths to the finale?
| Harry Shum Jr. cumulative score | 39 points (after two weeks) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Ezra Frech cumulative score | 41 points (after two weeks) [1][2][3] |
| Ezra Frech winner odds jump | from ~6% to 26% after Week 2 [4][5][6] |
Judges' scores for Harry Shum Jr. and Ezra Frech were very close after two weeks of competition. Harry Shum Jr. accumulated a total of 39 points, earning 21/30 in the premiere and 18/30 in Week 2, which initially placed him at the top of the premiere leaderboard due to his strong dance skill and showmanship [1][2][3][7][8]. In contrast, Ezra Frech garnered 41 points, scoring 20/30 in the premiere and improving to 21/30 in Week 2, a performance that shifted him from an early outsider to a market frontrunner [1][2][3][4].
Audience engagement and market signals indicate distinct paths to the finale for both contestants. The premiere generated a significant 72 million votes, with Harry Shum Jr. receiving notable industry support [9][10][11]. Ezra Frech's appeal, conversely, is largely narrative-driven, centered on his Paralympic identity, which has elicited emotional judge reactions and visible backing from the disabled community [2][8][4]. His strong Week 2 performance dramatically increased his winner odds from approximately 6% to 26% in contemporaneous reports [4][5][6]. While market snapshots varied, both competitors were considered serious contenders, suggesting strong finalist viability [12][4][6]. Harry Shum Jr. is viewed as a steady, technically safer candidate with a clear performance identity, whereas Ezra Frech represents a high-momentum candidate benefiting from an underdog narrative, with his ultimate success depending on converting emotional engagement into sustained votes [7][2][3][13][4].
Sources (13)
- 1What to know about 'Dancing With the Stars' season 35 star Harry Shum Jr. - ABC Newsabcnews.com
- 2Paralympian Ezra Frech scores big in history-making '...abcnews.com
- 3'Dancing With The Stars season 35' Week 2: Jenna Dewan, Ezra Frech and Amber Glenn Lead viral hits night; full scores and leaderboard - The Times of Indiatimesofindia.indiatimes.com
- 4Ezra Frech Becomes Frontrunner for 'DWTS' Season 35 After Incredible Dance in Week 2 - Watch Now! | Just Jared - Celebrity News, Entertainment News & Photosjustjared.com
- 5Dancing with the Stars Winner Prediction: A new favorite emerges — CALLED IT.calledit.media
- 6Dancing With the Stars Season 35 Prediction Market Watch | RotoWirerotowire.com
- 7DWTS' Harry Shum Jr. Defends Dance Experience After Premiere Scoreeonline.com
- 8Paralympian Ezra Frech scores big in history-making 'DWTS’ debut - Good Morning Americagoodmorningamerica.com
- 9Dancing With The Stars Season 35 Preview — New 'Mega...tvline.com
- 10The Season 35 premiere of Dancing With the Stars saw...instagram.com
- 11DWTS Harry Shum Jr. Shares Emotional Reaction to Overwhelming Supportentertainmentnow.com
- 12DWTS Season 35 Winner Odds: Ezra Frech vs. Maura...covers.com
- 13Harry Shum, Jr. & Jenna Johnson Explain Why He Screamed During 'DWTS' Week 2 Performance | Just Jared - Celebrity News, Entertainment News & Photosjustjared.com
9. What are the most reliable sources for tracking week-over-week judges' scores and estimating viewer voting trends for Season 35 contestants?
| Judges' Score Source | Season 35 scoring chart (Wikipedia) [1] |
|---|---|
| Viewer Vote Limit | 10 votes per couple per method, 20 per couple total [2][3] |
| Public Vote Transparency | Raw viewer vote totals are not disclosed [4][5][6] |
For week-over-week judges' scores for Season 35 contestants, use structured season score tables and contemporaneous recaps. A structured season score table, such as the Wikipedia Season 35 scoring chart, facilitates rapid historical comparison [1]. Individual episode scores should be verified against contemporaneous recaps from sources like ABC7 Chicago, TVLine, Vulture, or The Hollywood Reporter; for instance, Week 2 reporting documented three couples tied at 21/30 and Giada De Laurentiis eliminated at 12/30 [4][5][7][6]. It is crucial to remember that judges' scores are only one component of elimination, as the lowest combined judges' score and viewer-vote result determines who is eliminated [6][8]. This means a contestant can survive or leave despite not being last on the judges' leaderboard [6][8].
Estimating viewer voting trends requires analyzing multiple indirect factors due to the lack of publicly disclosed raw vote totals in DWTS reporting [4][5][6]. Any contestant-by-contestant voting percentage is necessarily an estimate [4][5][6]. A practical viewer-trend estimate must combine score trajectory, elimination margins inferred from who survives at low scores, fan-engagement proxies, and market price changes [4][5][6]. The official voting mechanics state that eligible viewers can vote online and by SMS only during the live East/Central simulcast, with voting closing shortly after the final competitive dance, and a standard limit of 10 votes per couple per method, up to 20 per couple per eligible voter [2][3]. The Season 35 premiere voting data should be treated as an anomaly, as ABC's website reportedly failed during the Sept. 15 premiere, causing online votes to be discarded and results to rely on text votes [9][10].
Monitor prediction markets for real-time odds, understanding their inherent nature. The market's own live prices and volume should be monitored, especially on Kalshi, with secondary reporting available from RotoWire, Covers, and Action Network [11][12][13]. These sources often show prices moving sharply after performances and eliminations [11][12][13]. However, it is important to understand that market odds represent trader-implied probabilities, not disclosed viewer-vote shares [11][12][13].
Sources (13)
- 1Dancing with the Stars (American TV series) season 35 - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
- 2DANCING WITH THE STARS VOTING FAQs - ABCdwtsvote.abc.com
- 3Dancing with the Stars on ABC and Disney+ – ABCsupportabc.zendesk.com
- 4Dancing With The Stars Recap: Season 35, Week 2 Elimination Resultstvline.com
- 5'Dancing with the Stars' week 2 recap: 3 couples tie for the lead, another star is sent home - ABC7 Chicagoabc7chicago.com
- 6DWTS Season 35 Viral Hits Night Week 2 Recap: Scores,...hollywoodreporter.com
- 7‘Dancing With The Stars’ Week 2 Recap: Sophomore Slumpvulture.com
- 8Dancing with the Stars Winner Prediction: A new favorite emerges — CALLED IT.calledit.media
- 9How to Vote for the 'Dancing with the Stars' Season 35...people.com
- 10Dancing With the Stars Season 35 Voting Error, New Rules...eonline.com
- 11Dancing With the Stars Season 35 Prediction Market Watch | RotoWirerotowire.com
- 12DWTS Season 35 Winner Odds: Ezra Frech vs. Maura...covers.com
- 13DWTS Season 35 Winner Odds Shift After Two-Night...actionnetwork.com
10. How do the established fan bases and social media engagement of contestants like Jenna Dewan and Amber Glenn compare, and how might this influence their 'viewer vote' potential?
| Jenna Dewan Instagram Followers | Approximately 9.8 million (as of mid-September 2026) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Amber Glenn Instagram Followers | Approximately 1.56 million (as of mid-September 2026) [1][2] |
| Amber Glenn TikTok Followers | 2.5 million [3] |
Contestants Jenna Dewan and Amber Glenn possess distinct social media strengths. Jenna Dewan maintains a significantly larger established social media presence, particularly on Instagram, positioning her with a strong baseline viewer-vote floor [1][2][4]. As of mid-September 2026, Dewan's Instagram audience, approximately 9.8 million followers, was roughly 6.3 times greater than Amber Glenn's approximately 1.56 million followers [1][2]. Conversely, Amber Glenn, a 2026 Olympic team-gold figure skater and three-time U.S. champion, despite having fewer overall followers, demonstrates powerful engagement through short-form video content on TikTok. One TikTok account snapshot listed 2.5 million followers, and a single DWTS-related video garnered 15.7 million views, 1.8 million likes, and an 11.79% engagement rate [5][3]. These contestants' fan-base profiles differ markedly; Dewan brings long-established mainstream entertainment recognition from her acting and dancing career, while Glenn offers fresh Olympic visibility, dedicated sports fans, and LGBTQ+ representation coupled with a compelling champion narrative [3][6][7].
Viewer support significantly impacts contestant qualification, beyond follower counts. Viewer support materially affects qualification, as live online and SMS votes are combined with judges' scores, with audience votes commonly described as holding roughly equal importance [4][8]. Jenna has a stronger baseline viewer-vote floor due to her much larger Instagram reach and her older, more established entertainment and dance fan base [2][4][3]. However, Amber exhibits higher momentum and upside potential, as her Olympic exposure and high TikTok engagement can mobilize intensely, particularly among sports and LGBTQ+ supporters [2][4][3]. It is crucial to note that social followers should not be treated as equivalent to votes because the voting window is short, live, capped, and requires active participation during the Eastern/Central simulcast. Therefore, conversion, mobilization, performance quality, partner chemistry, and narrative are more predictive than raw follower totals [4][8][9]. Following the premiere, Amber scored 18/30 and Jenna 19/30; both advanced, indicating Jenna’s larger established audience did not need to compensate for a major judging deficit at that point [9][10][11].
Sources (11)
- 1Jenna Dewan (@jennadewan) Instagram Stats, Analytics, Net Worth and Earnings – HypeAuditorhypeauditor.com
- 2Amber Glenn (@amberglenniceskater) Instagram Stats, Analytics, Net Worth and Earnings – HypeAuditorhypeauditor.com
- 3'Dancing with the Stars' season 35: Meet the celebrity cast and their pro dance partners - Good Morning Americagoodmorningamerica.com
- 4Dancing with the Stars on ABC and Disney+ – ABCsupportabc.zendesk.com
- 5TikTok Video by @amberglenniceskater | 15.7M Views | Toklyticstoklytics.app
- 6Dancing With The Stars Season 35 Cast: See The Full Listtvline.com
- 7Check out the full cast of ‘Dancing with the Stars’ Season 35 – Deseret Newsdeseret.com
- 8How Does ‘Dancing With the Stars’ Voting Work?cosmopolitan.com
- 9DWTS Season 35 Premiere Night 2 Female Celeb Recap: Scores, Elimination – Charm – Daily Newsnews.charm-retirement.com
- 10‘Dancing With the Stars’ premiere eliminates two couples - The Postthepostathens.com
- 11'Dancing with the Stars' premiere night 2 sees strong dances, 2nd week 1 elimination – weather-sentry.comweather-sentry.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Dancing with the Stars Season 35 premiered live on ABC and Disney+ on September 15, 2026, with a second premiere episode on September 16 [1]. Subsequent episodes air Tuesdays at 8 p.m. ET and stream the next day on Hulu [1]. The field fell from 16 celebrities to 14 after premiere-night eliminations; Giada De Laurentiis and Alan Bersten were then eliminated on September 22, 2026, leaving 13 couples after Week 2 [2][3]. Preseason market signals identified Harry Shum Jr. as an early favorite, with Kalshi reporting him at 24% to win after Week 1, and Action Network citing preseason odds of +376, approximately 21% implied probability [4][5]. Amber Glenn and Jenna Dewan were also among the leading contenders [5]. Week 2 demonstrated material repricing catalysts: Harry Shum Jr. suffered a setback, while Ezra Frech improved and was described as an emerging standout [6]. The leaderboard is volatile, and judges’ scores alone do not determine survival because viewer votes also matter [7][8][9].
Bullish catalysts for a finalist-qualified contract include strong judges' scores, visible week-over-week improvement, viral or emotionally resonant performances, favorable fan voting, and survival of elimination-risk episodes [1][10][11][6][3]. A contestant’s strong performance combined with visible viewer support and survival through weekly eliminations also acts as a bullish catalyst [9]. Conversely, bearish catalysts include low scores, bottom-two exposure, injuries or withdrawals, weak audience response, and adverse voting or rule changes [1][10][11][6][3]. Elimination, injury, or a weak performance/vote result also represent bearish catalysts; because the format combines judges’ scores with audience votes, leaderboard position is not sufficient by itself [9].
Key monitoring dates are September 29, 2026 for Yacht Rock Night, then each Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET [1][6][3]. The projected decision window is the semifinal on November 17, 2026, with the likely finale and finalist resolution on November 24, 2026 [12][13][6][3]. ABC had not officially announced the finale date as of September 25, 2026; however, this expected timeline aligns with schedule trackers and the prior-season pattern [12][13][14]. Season 34’s finale on November 25, 2025, with five finalists, offers a historical timing reference, demonstrating how pre-finale odds and late-season elimination news can materially shift expectations [15][16].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 07, 2027
- Closes: January 07, 2027
Sources (16)
- 1THE BALLROOM IS BACK! ‘DANCING WITH THE STARS’ CELEBRATES SEASON 35 WITH A SPECIAL TWO-NIGHT PREMIERE ON ABC AND DISNEY+detpress.com
- 2‘Dancing With the Stars’ premiere eliminates two couples - The Postthepostathens.com
- 3Giada De Laurentiis eliminated from 'Dancing With the Stars' on 'Viral Hits Night'pagesix.com
- 4DWTS odds: Shum leads season 35, Giada survives week 1news.kalshi.com
- 5Dancing With The Stars – S35: Winner & Elimination Oddsactionnetwork.com
- 6Dancing With The Stars Recap: Season 35, Week 2 Elimination Resultstvline.com
- 7‘Dancing With the Stars’ Live Blog: Which Male Will Be Eliminated on Night 1? - IMDbimdb.com
- 8DWTS First Eliminations Have Shaken Up the Leaderboard and Proven That Scores Don’t Tell the Full Story - IMDbimdb.com
- 9'Dancing with the Stars' Season 25 (2026): Watch Live Online for Freebillboard.com
- 10'Dancing with the Stars' season 35: What to know about the cast, premiere date and more - ABC Newsingest.abcnews.com
- 11'Dancing with the Stars' season 35: What to know about the cast, premiere date and more - Good Morning Americagoodmorningamerica.com
- 12When Is the ‘Dancing With the Stars’ Season 35 Finale? We Figured Out the Likely Datecosmopolitan.com
- 13‘Dancing With the Stars’ Season 35 Episode Schedule, How to Watch & Stream, Finale Date Infojustjared.com
- 14Dancing with the Stars: Season 35 Episodes & Scheduleseasontracker.tv
- 15‘Dancing With The Stars’: Season 34 Winner Announcedbillboard.com
- 16‘DWTS’ Season 34 Odds: Which Remaining Celeb Is Predicted to Win? - IMDbimdb.com
