Yes
Market Model 77.0% 77.0%
People Markets
Active Markets (8)
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 11.9%
AI
Market Model 11.0% 4.8%
Donald Trump
Market Model 27.0% 15.3%
Yes
Market Model 19.0% 13.6%
Yes
Market Model 11.0% 7.1%
Yes
Market Model 26.0% 26.0%
Before Jan 1, 2028
Market Model 43.0% 33.7%
Before Jul 1, 2027
Market Model 33.0% 25.5%
Elon Musk
Market Model 29.0% 19.0%
Taylor Swift
Market Model 12.0% 4.1%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Sweeney and Scooter Braun: Engaged this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 77.0% | 77.0% | Med | 78 | Refresh |
| Brooklyn Beckham: Seen in public with David or Victoria Beckham in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 15.0% | 11.9% | Med | 75 | Refresh |
| TIME's Person of the Year for 2026? Top outcome: AI | 11.0% | 4.8% | Med | 56 | Refresh |
| Will Cardi B and Stefon Diggs be engaged in 2026? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 19.0% | 13.6% | Med | 68 | Refresh |
| Will Eric Adams go on Dancing with the Stars this year? Yes refers to: Eric Adams | 11.0% | 7.1% | Med | 73 | Refresh |
| Will Nick Bosa and Ella Ailiff be engaged before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 26.0% | 26.0% | Med | 68 | Refresh |
| When will Harry Styles and Zoë Kravitz be married? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2028 | 43.0% | 33.7% | High | 67 | Refresh |
| Who will Time name as Person of the Decade? Top outcome: Elon Musk | 29.0% | 19.0% | Med | 75 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (6)
Yes
Market Model — —
Blake Lively
Market Model 1.0% 0.3%
Selena Gomez
Market Model 99.0% 98.7%
Yes
Market Model 65.0% 68.5%
Sydney Sweeney
Market Model 1.0% 0.3%
Lady Gaga
Market Model 1.0% 0.3%
Selena Gomez
Market Model 71.0% 67.7%
Gigi Hadid
Market Model 58.0% 46.4%
Patrick Mahomes
Market Model 87.0% 82.9%
Jason Kelce
Market Model 86.0% 81.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce: Wedding attendees Top outcome: Blake Lively | 1.0% | 0.3% | Med | — | |
| Taylor Swift: Married at Madison Square Garden in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 65.0% | 68.5% | Med | — | |
| Who will attend The Met Gala? Top outcome: Sydney Sweeney | 1.0% | 0.3% | Med | — | |
| Who will be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift? Top outcome: Selena Gomez | 71.0% | 67.7% | Med | — | |
| Who will be Groomsman for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift? Top outcome: Patrick Mahomes | 87.0% | 82.9% | Med | — |
