Sarah Jane Nader
Market Model 1.0% 0.3%
Conner Leavitt
Market Model 2.0% 0.7%
Television Markets
Active Markets (8)
Before Jul 2027
Market Model 17.0% 26.7%
Before Jan 2027
Market Model 7.0% 4.7%
Yes
Market Model 8.0% 12.3%
Who will go on Jimmy Kimmel? Kalshi
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson
Market Model 83.0% 77.6%
Harry Styles
Market Model 30.0% 17.8%
Yes
Market Model 8.0% 5.1%
Before Jul 1, 2027
Market Model 56.0% 53.3%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 34.0% 32.9%
Glen Powell
Market Model 45.0% 35.6%
Ryan Gosling
Market Model 19.0% 7.0%
Yes
Market Model 63.0% 43.0%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · Top 3 Finishers Top outcome: Sarah Jane Nader | 1.0% | 0.3% | Med | 77 | Refresh |
| The Last of Us S3: Release date Top outcome: Before Jul 2027 | 17.0% | 26.7% | High | 62 | Refresh |
| Will Stranger Things release a new episode this year? Yes refers to: Yes | 8.0% | 12.3% | Med | 67 | Refresh |
| Who will go on Jimmy Kimmel? Top outcome: Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson | 83.0% | 77.6% | Med | 68 | Refresh |
| Will a new season of Stranger Things be announced? Yes refers to: Before Jan 2027 | 8.0% | 5.1% | Med | 69 | Refresh |
| When will Prison Break return? Top outcome: Before Jul 1, 2027 | 56.0% | 53.3% | High | 56 | Refresh |
| Who will be cast in the next Miami Vice? Top outcome: Glen Powell | 45.0% | 35.6% | Med | 62 | Refresh |
| Will A Court Of Thorns and Roses be released? Yes refers to: Before Jan 2030 | 63.0% | 43.0% | Med | 76 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (8)
Ernest Harden, Jr.
Market Model 98.0% 100.0%
Colman Domingo
Market Model 1.0% 0.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Above 20.0M
Market Model 97.0% 96.5%
Above 24.0M
Market Model 93.0% 94.2%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Carey Mulligan
Market Model 21.0% 21.9%
Sarah Pidgeon
Market Model 42.0% 39.3%
Emmy Award for Drama Actress Kalshi
Rhea Seehorn
Market Model 50.0% 58.1%
Zendaya
Market Model 31.0% 35.9%
Aubry Bracco
Market Model 82.0% 72.6%
Jonathan Young
Market Model 4.0% 3.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmy winner: Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series Top outcome: Ernest Harden, Jr. | 98.0% | 100.0% | High | — | |
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| 2026 Soccer Cup Final: U.S. Viewership Top outcome: Above 20.0M | 97.0% | 96.5% | High | — | |
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| Emmy Award for Movie/Limited Actress Top outcome: Carey Mulligan | 21.0% | 21.9% | Med | — | |
| Emmy Award for Drama Actress Top outcome: Rhea Seehorn | 50.0% | 58.1% | High | — | |
| Who will win Survivor Season 50? Top outcome: Aubry Bracco | 82.0% | 72.6% | High | — |
