Short Answer

The consensus expects Tatyana Ali to avoid elimination in Episode 9 of Dancing with the Stars, with the market pricing this outcome at 40.0% probability.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The contract pricing the Episode 9 elimination saw its probability double following the results of the October 27 "Horror Movie Night" episode. That broadcast featured a double elimination, removing contestants Jackson Olson/Emma Slater and Tyler Cameron/Sharna Burgess. The reduction of the competitive field from ten to eight couples appears to be the primary driver for the repricing of the odds for the next elimination event.
The market adjusted from 4% to 8% on October 29 as traders processed the new competitive landscape. The market has since traded sideways at this new level. This suggests the outcome of the prior episode is now fully priced in, with the market awaiting new information from the next performance night to further adjust probabilities.
  • Tatyana Ali is strongly favored for elimination by prediction markets. Tatyana Ali and Julia Stiles together comprise three-quarters of elimination probability. * Maura Higgins is a dark horse; her low Horror Night score a factor.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Maura Higgins 8.0% 5.4% Higgins' competitive position makes her a candidate for elimination.
Jenna Dewan 6.0% 2.7% Dewan's competitive standing suggests she could face elimination.
Tatyana Ali 40.0% 41.4% Ali's competitive position suggests she is a leading candidate for elimination.
Julia Stiles 34.0% 33.7% Stiles appears to be in a vulnerable position given the current competitive landscape.
Harry Shum Jr. 1.0% 0.4% Shum Jr. appears to be in a relatively strong competitive position.

Current Context

Episode 9 of "Dancing with the Stars" Season 35 has not yet aired as of October 29, 2026; eight couples remain [1][2][3]. The preceding episode, Horror Movie Night on October 27, eliminated Jackson Olson/Emma Slater and Tyler Cameron/Sharna Burgess [2][3]. Episode 9 is scheduled as Disney Night, part of a season that premiered September 15–16 and typically airs Tuesdays at 8 p.m. ET on ABC and Disney+, with Hulu streaming next-day [4][5][6]. The season finale is set for November 24 [4].
Prediction markets show divided views on Episode 9 elimination candidates. Recent performance data indicate Harry Shum Jr. (40/40 on Horror Movie Night), Amber Glenn and Jenna Dewan (combined 74/80 across Dedication and Horror Nights), and Ezra Frech (72/80) as strong contenders [2][3]. Conversely, Tatyana Ali (60/80), Julia Stiles (62/80), and Maura Higgins (67/80) scored lower [2][3]. One prediction market lists Tatyana Ali as the leading elimination candidate at 44.5%, followed by Julia Stiles at 34.5% and Connor Wood at 13% [7]. A separate Manifold market offers different percentages: Connor Wood at 39%, Julia Stiles at 29%, Tatyana Ali at 14%, and Maura Higgins at 8%, indicating substantial market disagreement and low liquidity [8].
Ezra Frech leads as overall winner, but voting dynamics are key. Prediction markets for the Season 35 winner favor Ezra Frech, with Kalshi showing 58% on October 29 and recent reports citing roughly 62–63% across Kalshi and Polymarket [9][10][11]. Amber Glenn is the primary challenger at approximately 14–19%, with Harry Shum Jr. further behind [9][10][11]. Analysts emphasize that eliminations combine judges’ scores with viewer votes [2][3][11]. The carried-over scores and votes from Dedication Night made Episode 8 unusually consequential [2][3][11]. Fan-base overlap and voting strength are highlighted as critical factors capable of influencing outcomes beyond leaderboard standings [11].
Sources (11)
  1. 1'Dancing with the Stars' season 35: See who is eliminated - ABC Newsabcnews.com
  2. 2DWTS Season 35 Horror Movie Night Week 7 Recaphollywoodreporter.com
  3. 3Dancing With The Stars Recap - TVLinetvline.com
  4. 4‘Dancing With the Stars’ 2026 Themes: A Season 35 Breakdown – Hollywood Lifehollywoodlife.com
  5. 5Every ‘Dancing with the Stars’ Season 35 Theme Night, Revealedpeople.com
  6. 6Dancing With the Stars Season 35 Announces Super Bowl Nightusmagazine.com
  7. 7Dancing with the Stars: Episodes 1 & 2 Elimination - Resultado: Conner Leavitt | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  8. 8Who will be eliminated from Dancing With the Stars in Episode 9? | Manifoldmanifold.markets
  9. 9Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · Winner Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  10. 10DWTS Season 35 Winner Odds: Ezra Frech Leads Kalshi Marketscovers.com
  11. 11Dancing With the Stars Season 35 Prediction Market Watch | RotoWirerotowire.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📉 October 28, 2026: 83.0pp drop

Price decreased from 99.0% to 16.0%

Outcome: Connor Wood

What happened: The primary driver of the 83.0 percentage point drop in Connor Wood's "Episode 9 Elimination" market was the official outcome of "Dancing with the Stars" Season 35 Episode 8 (Horror Movie Night) on October 28, 2026 [1][2][3]. Connor Wood was officially declared safe during this broadcast and remained in the competition, performing well [1][2][4][5]. This traditional news directly contradicted any expectation of his imminent elimination, causing a rapid decrease in the perceived probability of him being eliminated in the subsequent Episode 9. Social media was not identified as a primary driver, as the movement directly coincided with official broadcast results and widespread news reporting [1][2][4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Who went home on DWTS? Horror Movie Night double...freep.com
  2. 2'Dancing with the Stars' Horror Movie Night ends in 2...usatoday.com
  3. 3Watch Dancing with the Stars Streaming on ABC platforms and Disney+ - ABC.comabc.com
  4. 4Who is Left on 'Dancing With the Stars'? Who Got Eliminated?decider.com
  5. 5'Dancing with the Stars' season 35: See who is eliminated - Good Morning Americagoodmorningamerica.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves 'Yes' for a specific contestant if that individual is eliminated during Episode 9 of Dancing with the Stars, and 'No' if they are not eliminated. Payout for the market is expected by November 2, 2026. A special condition states that if no elimination occurs in Episode 9, all 'Yes' contracts for individual contestants will resolve to 'No'.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Tatyana Ali $0.41 $0.60 40%
Julia Stiles $0.35 $0.66 34%
Connor Wood $0.15 $0.87 16%
Maura Higgins $0.07 $0.94 8%
Jenna Dewan $0.10 $0.91 6%
None $0.03 $1.00 3%
Amber Glenn $0.03 $0.99 1%
Ezra Frech $0.02 $0.99 1%
Harry Shum Jr. $0.05 $0.98 1%

Market Discussion

Prediction markets active as of October 29, 2026, indicate Tatyana Ali (approx. 44-45%) and Julia Stiles (approx. 30-35%) are the most favored candidates for elimination in "Dancing with the Stars" Episode 9 [1][2][3][4]. Discussions and trading on this elimination are primarily driven by technical analysis of voting trends, recent performance scores, and past elimination patterns, rather than emotional controversies [1][3].

Sources (4)
  1. 1Dancing with the Stars · Episode 9 Elimination: Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
  2. 2Dancing with the Stars · Episode 9 Elimination: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com
  3. 3Dancing with the Stars · Episode 9 Elimination | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  4. 4Dancing With The Stars Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 68 Caution

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score74Good

Market integrity is low (56), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score43High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score68Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
56Caution

Outcome can be influenced

Large tradesTrade signals · high confidence

Largest single print on KXDWTSELIMINATION-26NOV03-JDEW carried 65% of its $384 tape (window is 75% of 24h flow)

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesMoves carried volume Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
49Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

9 contracts · worst first

Ezra Frech5
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Amber Glenn5
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Harry Shum Jr.5
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Connor Wood20
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Maura Higgins36
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

None44
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Jenna Dewan45
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Tatyana Ali74
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Julia Stiles74
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
90Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

9 contracts · worst first

None25
Unconfirmed · high confidence

Unconfirmed move — light volume and/or it has partly reverted.

Connor Wood61
Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 20h

Amber Glenn87
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 21h

Jenna Dewan92
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Tatyana Ali—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Julia Stiles—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Maura Higgins—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Ezra Frech—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Harry Shum Jr.—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

9 contracts · worst first

Tatyana Ali100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Julia Stiles100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Connor Wood100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Maura Higgins100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Jenna Dewan100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
None100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Ezra Frech100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Amber Glenn100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Harry Shum Jr.100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
43High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 54 (notional-weighted across 9 scored legs)

$100 order: 2.9c slippage (~45% of a 6.5c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Tatyana Ali74Market scoreLiquidity74Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 74
Liquidity
74 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Julia Stiles74Market scoreLiquidity74Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 74
Liquidity
74 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Connor Wood20Market scoreLiquidity20Move quality61Rule clarity100
Why 20
Liquidity
20 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
61 · Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 20h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Maura HigginsPrimary36Market scoreLiquidity36Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 36
Liquidity
36 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Jenna Dewan45Market scoreLiquidity45Move quality92Rule clarity100
Why 45
Liquidity
45 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
92 · Confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
None44Market scoreLiquidity44Move quality25Rule clarity100
Why 44
Liquidity
44 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
25 · Unconfirmed · high confidence

Unconfirmed move — light volume and/or it has partly reverted.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Ezra Frech5Market scoreLiquidity5Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 5
Liquidity
5 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Amber Glenn5Market scoreLiquidity5Move quality87Rule clarity100
Why 5
Liquidity
5 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
87 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 21h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Harry Shum Jr.5Market scoreLiquidity5Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 5
Liquidity
5 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 29, 2026

6. What evidence from recent performances and prediction markets supports Tatyana Ali as the leading candidate for elimination in Episode 9?

Implied Elimination Probability45% to 53% (as of October 29, 2026) [1][2][3]
Current Leaderboard Ranking9th out of 10 couples [4]
Most Recent Performance Score28/40 (Horror Movie Night) [4]
Prediction markets strongly favor Tatyana Ali for Episode 9 elimination. As of October 29, 2026, prediction markets indicate Tatyana Ali as the primary candidate for departure in Episode 9 of Dancing with the Stars, with implied probabilities for her elimination ranging from 45% to 53% [1][2][3]. This assessment from prediction markets aligns with her consistently low standing in recent performances [4].
Tatyana Ali's performance scores and standing remain consistently low. She and her partner, Jan Ravnik, currently hold the ninth position on the Dancing with the Stars Season 35 combined leaderboard, placing them second-to-last among the ten remaining couples with a total of 60 out of 80 points [4]. Her individual scores have been particularly low, including a 28 out of 40 in the recent Horror Movie Night episode, continuing a pattern of scoring below the average of her fellow contestants [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Dancing with the Stars · Episode 9 Elimination Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  2. 2Dancing with the Stars · Episode 9 Elimination: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com
  3. 3Dancing with the Stars · Episode 9 Elimination: Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
  4. 4DWTS Season 35 Horror Movie Night Week 7 Recaphollywoodreporter.com

7. How does Ezra Frech's status as the season-winner favorite impact his safety in the Episode 9 elimination compared to other mid-tier dancers like Jenna Dewan?

Ezra Frech Elimination ProbabilityApproximately 1% for Episode 9 [1][2][3]
Jenna Dewan Elimination Odds9% to 12% for Episode 9 [1][2][3]
Tatyana Ali Elimination Odds45% [4][5][6]
Ezra Frech faces minimal elimination risk for Episode 9. He is considered very safe for the "Dancing with the Stars" Episode 9 elimination, primarily due to his status as a favored season-winner [1][2][3]. Prediction markets reflect this safety, assigning him an implied probability of approximately 1% for elimination in the upcoming episode [1][2][3]. This position contrasts significantly with mid-tier dancers such as Jenna Dewan, whose market odds for elimination in the same episode range from 9% to 12% [1][2][3].
Consistent high performance solidifies Frech's frontrunner status. His strong competitive standing is further reinforced by his consistent high performance throughout the season [4][5][6]. Key achievements include earning early perfect or near-perfect scores and being the first to receive 10s during the season [4][5][6]. These accomplishments firmly establish his position as a frontrunner, especially when compared to other contestants facing considerably higher elimination odds, such as Tatyana Ali at 45% and Julia Stiles at 30-34% [4][5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Dancing with the Stars · Episode 9 Elimination: Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
  2. 2Dancing with the Stars · Episode 9 Elimination: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com
  3. 3Dancing with the Stars · Episode 9 Elimination | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  4. 4'Dancing With the Stars' Season 35 Week 7 Live Recaplifestyle.si.com
  5. 5Dancing With The Stars Check-In: Can Ezra Frech Win...flotrack.org
  6. 6DWTS Season 35 Horror Movie Night Week 7 Recaphollywoodreporter.com

8. What scenario of judges' scores and viewer votes could lead to a surprise elimination for a high-scorer like Harry Shum Jr. or Amber Glenn?

Elimination odds for Harry or Amberroughly 1% (implied by prediction market pricing on Oct 29, 2026) [1][2]
Harry Shum Jr. recent perfect score40/40 [3][4]
Amber Glenn recent score36/40 [3][4]
A surprise elimination for top performers is a low-probability event. For high-scorers such as Harry Shum Jr. or Amber Glenn to face a surprise elimination in Episode 9, a rare combination of low judges' scores and exceptionally weak viewer votes would be necessary [3][4][5]. This outcome is considered a tail-risk scenario, as prediction market pricing on October 29, 2026, implied approximately 1% odds for either Harry or Amber's elimination, with probabilities largely focused on other couples [1][2].
Specific scenarios outline how high-scoring contestants could face elimination. Harry Shum Jr., who recently achieved a perfect score of 40/40, could be eliminated if he experiences a significant scoring collapse, roughly falling to the low-to-mid 20s out of 40, coupled with near-bottom viewer support [3][4]. Similarly, Amber Glenn, with a recent score of 36/40, might face elimination if her judges' scores are around the high 20s or low 30s, paired with unusually weak viewer votes [3][4]. The fundamental elimination mechanism is relative; a high scorer can be eliminated if the aggregate of their judge-score standing and audience-vote standing for the episode places them at the bottom [3][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Dancing with the Stars · Episode 9 Elimination: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com
  2. 2Dancing with the Stars · Episode 9 Elimination: Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
  3. 3DWTS Season 35 Horror Movie Night Week 7 Recaphollywoodreporter.com
  4. 4Who Was Eliminated On 'Dancing With The Stars' Horror...forbes.com
  5. 5'Dancing With the Stars' Horror Movie Night 2026 Recaptvinsider.com

9. Are there reliable social media engagement metrics for Julia Stiles, Tatyana Ali, and Connor Wood that could serve as a proxy for viewer vote strength post-Horror Night?

Tatyana Ali Followers963.9K followers (influData, as of Oct 27, 2026) [1]
Tatyana Ali Engagement (influData)10.87% (influData, as of Oct 27, 2026) [1]
Tatyana Ali Instagram Engagement (HypeAuditor)5.79% (HypeAuditor, October) [2]
Social media metrics are unreliable proxies for Dancing With The Stars viewer votes. It is not possible to reliably determine viewer vote strength post-Horror Night for Julia Stiles, Tatyana Ali, and Connor Wood using available social media engagement metrics. These metrics are intrinsically imperfect vote proxies, and the provided sources do not establish a causal relationship between social engagement and DWTS votes [3][4][5][6][7][8].
Tatyana Ali shows the most robust individual social media data. She demonstrates the strongest directly supported contestant-level social signal, with influData reporting 963.9K followers, 10.87% engagement, and +4.3% monthly growth as of October 27, 2026 [1]. HypeAuditor also reported her October Instagram engagement rate at 5.79% [2]. While these figures indicate audience size and interaction, they are not direct representations of DWTS vote totals [1]. Julia Stiles, conversely, shows evidence of strong DWTS-related content reach, including an Instagram post and a People TikTok featuring her performance, but lacks verified follower counts, engagement rates, or comparable post-level metrics for her own accounts [9][10].
Reliable social metrics are absent for Connor Wood's DWTS performance. Although recognized as a large-platform internet comedian and DWTS participant [11][12][13][14], the provided research does not offer reliable, directly comparable follower counts, engagement rates, or DWTS-post interaction totals for his accounts. A fan-created weekly social-engagement series exists, but its methodology and complete contestant-by-contestant values are not exposed, rendering it directional rather than reliable [15][16][17]. Furthermore, show-level or platform-level engagement, such as the official DWTS Instagram account's followers, cannot be directly attributed to individual contestant voting support [3][4][5].
Sources (17)
  1. 1Top 20 Chicago Parenting & Family TikTok Influencers (Oct...infludata.com
  2. 2Tatyana Ali (@tatyanaali) Instagram Stats, Analytics, Net...hypeauditor.com
  3. 3Dancing With The Stars #DWTS (@dancingwiththestars)instagram.com
  4. 4Dancing with the Stars: Instagram Stats & Audiencecreatordb.app
  5. 5How to Choose Social Media Networks in 2026sproutsocial.com
  6. 6Dancing with the Stars · Episode 8 Elimination - Result: Tyler Cameron | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  7. 7Dancing with the Stars · Episode 5 Elimination - Result: Ciara Miller | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  8. 8Dancing with the Stars: Episodes 1 & 2 Elimination - Result: Conner Leavitt | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  9. 9Julia & Ezra finally overtook Guillermo & Witney...instagram.com
  10. 10The sweetest mom and son duo. 🥹 #EzraFrech #DWTS...tiktok.com
  11. 11cast him immediately!! 🏒 #connorwood #heatedrivalry...tiktok.com
  12. 12UT alumnus Connor Wood talks influencer life after...thedailytexan.com
  13. 13'DWTS' Star Connor Wood Wants Jennifer Lawrence to...yahoo.com
  14. 14Internet stars Noel Miller and Connor Wood perform on campustcnjsignalnews.com
  15. 15Week 6 Social Media Engagement 🪩 *data from likes of FB...instagram.com
  16. 16Week 4 Social Media Engagement 🪩instagram.com
  17. 17Week 3 Social Media Engagement 🪩instagram.com

10. What performance trajectory suggests Connor Wood or Maura Higgins could be dark horse candidates for elimination on Disney Night?

Maura Higgins' Horror Movie Night Score32/40 [1]
Connor Wood's Horror Movie Night Score37/40 [1]
Connor Wood's Episode 9 Elimination Probability10.5%-16% [2]
Maura Higgins' recent performance trajectory makes her a dark horse for elimination. Her low score of 32/40 on Horror Movie Night tied her with an eliminated contestant, highlighting technical issues noted by judges despite some positive feedback [1]. Her overall scores place her near the elimination threshold, with prediction markets estimating her elimination probability for Episode 9, Disney Night, at approximately 7.5%–8% [1][2]. A weak showing in an upcoming individual or team dance could further amplify these vulnerabilities [3].
Connor Wood also poses a significant dark horse elimination risk. While he scored higher with 37/40 on Horror Movie Night, his combined two-night total of 69/80 positioned him fifth, notably below the top contenders [1]. His selection as a Disney team captain was based on having one of the lowest combined scores [4]. Prediction markets assign him a higher elimination probability, ranging from 10.5%–16% for Episode 9, indicating he is a stronger market-based dark horse candidate [2]. Similar to Higgins, a poor performance during Disney Night could heighten his existing score and voting vulnerabilities [3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1DWTS Season 35 Horror Movie Night Week 7 Recaphollywoodreporter.com
  2. 2Dancing with the Stars · Episode 9 Elimination: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com
  3. 3Dancing with the Stars (American TV series) season 35en.wikipedia.org
  4. 42 eliminations, 1 perfect score on 'Horror Movie Night'abc7ny.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Tatyana Ali and Julia Stiles collectively represent approximately three-quarters of the implied elimination probability for Episode 9, quoted at roughly 43–45% and 34–35% respectively as of October 29, 2026 [1][2][3]. The primary uncertainty involves whether late live-show judges' scores and viewer votes shift Connor Wood, currently at about 10–16%, Jenna Dewan, or Maura Higgins into more significant contention [1][2][3][4]. Episode 9, themed Disney Night, broadcasts live on November 2, 2026, with the market deadline and expected settlement set for November 3, 2026 [5][6][7][8][1][2].
Specific catalysts that could impact elimination contracts include several factors. Bullish indicators for an elimination contract include weak judges' scores, unfavorable viewer-vote momentum, Disney Night performance underperformance, rehearsal or injury/availability news, and late trading-volume or price momentum [2][9][4][3]. Conversely, bearish catalysts include a strong dance, favorable judges' scores, a high-engagement fan-vote campaign, and a market repricing after credible performance information [2][9][4][3].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 10, 2026
  • Closes: November 03, 2026
Sources (9)
  1. 1Dancing with the Stars · Episode 9 Elimination Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  2. 2Dancing with the Stars · Episode 9 Elimination: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com
  3. 3Dancing With The Stars Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  4. 4Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · Top 3 Finishers - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  5. 5Season 35 - Dancing with the Stars Full Episodesabc.com
  6. 6Dancing with the Stars (American TV series) season 35en.wikipedia.org
  7. 7List of Dancing with the Stars (American TV series) episodes (2022–present)en.wikipedia.org
  8. 8Watch Dancing with the Stars Online | Season 35 (2026)tvguide.com
  9. 9Who will be eliminated from Dancing With the Stars in Episode 9? | Manifoldmanifold.markets

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXDWTSELIMINATION-26OCT28-TCAM: YES (Oct 28, 2026)
  • KXDWTSELIMINATION-26OCT28-TAT: NO (Oct 28, 2026)
  • KXDWTSELIMINATION-26OCT28-NON: NO (Oct 28, 2026)
  • KXDWTSELIMINATION-26OCT28-MHIG: NO (Oct 28, 2026)
  • KXDWTSELIMINATION-26OCT28-JSTIL: NO (Oct 28, 2026)