5.38% or above
Market Model 29.0% 28.5%
5.35% or above
Market Model 35.0% 33.7%
Topic tracker · Financials
10Y how high monthly
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 3 so far (2 live, 1 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new 10Y how high monthly markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated October 9, 2026
Live markets
5.35% or above
Market Model 95.0% 94.2%
5.3% or above
Market Model 98.0% 97.7%
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026? | September 30, 2026 | 40.7% vs 45.0% | Report → |
