Will Newsmax (NMAX) beat quarterly earnings?
Yes refers to: Yes
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully lower odds for Newsmax (NMAX) to beat quarterly earnings, with 'Yes' at 47.1% model probability versus 59.0% market probability, an 11.9pp divergence.
1. Executive Verdict
- Yes: Newsmax achieved 14% YOY Q1 2026 revenue growth with a reduced net loss.
- Yes: Q2 2026 digital advertising revenue is expected to exceed Q1 performance.
- Yes: Analysts project a Q2 2026 EPS of -$0.03, a potentially low hurdle.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 59.0% | 47.1% | The evidence indicates that as of August 13, 2026, Newsmax Inc. has no upcoming quarterly earnings reports immediately scheduled to be "beaten," contradicting the premise of the event, though the market remains at 59.0% for a "Yes" outcome, potentially suggesting an anticipation of an unscheduled announcement. |
Current Context
As of August 13, 2026, no upcoming earnings reports are scheduled. The Q1 2026 results, for the quarter ending March 31, 2026, are the most current [^]. There is no public market-implied predictive data or consensus analyst forecast available for Newsmax (NMAX) to determine if it will "beat" future earnings expectations [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market has traded in a wide, volatile, and ultimately sideways range between 49.5% and 80.0%. The price began at 50.0% on August 1 before spiking to a high of 78.5% on August 2. It then steadily declined through a series of sharp drops. The most significant price movement was a 22-point drop on August 12, which directly followed the release of analyst earnings estimates. Research from Maxim Group projecting a Q2 EPS of ($0.04) appears to be the primary driver for that decline. The causes for other price swings earlier in August are not identified in the available context.
Crucially, the market has registered zero traded contracts. This lack of volume indicates that the price movements are not supported by any financial conviction or active positioning from participants. The price is a theoretical reflection of external news rather than a consensus formed by trading. While the 50% level has served as a loose floor, the current 54.5% probability suggests only a marginal positive sentiment on an earnings beat. This reading is entirely untested due to the absence of trading activity.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 August 12, 2026: 22.0pp drop
Price decreased from 78.0% to 56.0%
Outcome: Yes
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price drop was the release of analyst earnings estimates. On August 12, 2026, research analysts, including Maxim Group, projected Newsmax's Q2 2026 earnings per share (EPS) at ($0.04) [^]. This pre-earnings release prediction, implying a larger loss than the previous quarter's ($0.02) net loss per share [^], likely tempered expectations for Newsmax to beat earnings, causing the market movement the day before the official Q2 results were due on August 13, 2026 [^]. Social media was not identified as a relevant factor in the provided information.
📉 August 05, 2026: 9.5pp drop
Price decreased from 69.5% to 60.0%
Outcome: Yes
What happened: The provided research does not indicate any social media activity from key figures or viral narratives that would explain the 9.5 percentage point drop in the Newsmax (NMAX) prediction market on August 05, 2026. No traditional news announcements or data releases specific to NMAX's Q2 2026 earnings outlook were identified on or immediately prior to this date, with the official earnings report scheduled for August 13, 2026 [^][^][^]. Therefore, based solely on the available information, a primary driver for this price movement cannot be identified from the provided sources. Social media was not found to be a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or significant noise in the provided research.
📉 August 03, 2026: 15.5pp drop
Price decreased from 78.5% to 63.0%
Outcome: Yes
What happened: The provided research does not contain specific social media posts from influential figures, viral narratives, or breaking traditional news announcements directly on August 3, 2026, that would serve as the primary driver for the 15.5 percentage point drop in the "Yes" outcome for Newsmax (NMAX) beating quarterly earnings. Newsmax was scheduled to report its second quarter 2026 financial results after the market closes on August 13, 2026, with analysts projecting an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.03 [^][^]. While NMAX stock has historically experienced significant volatility and downward pressure, often influenced by social media sentiment, since its 2025 IPO, no specific social media or news event on August 3, 2026, is identified to directly cause this particular market movement [^][^]. Therefore, social media activity appears irrelevant as a primary driver for this specific market drop, which likely reflects broader negative sentiment or anticipatory trading ahead of the upcoming earnings report.
📈 August 02, 2026: 19.0pp spike
Price increased from 59.5% to 78.5%
Outcome: Yes
What happened: The provided web research does not indicate any social media activity from key figures or viral narratives that would explain the 19.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market on August 02, 2026. Newsmax's Q2 2026 earnings report was scheduled for August 13, 2026, and while consensus estimates were available, no specific traditional news or announcements made on or immediately prior to August 2nd are present to explain the movement [^][^][^]. Based on the available information, the primary driver for this price movement cannot be identified, and social media activity appears to be irrelevant due to a complete lack of evidence.
📈 August 01, 2026: 9.5pp spike
Price increased from 50.0% to 59.5%
Outcome: Yes
What happened: Based on the provided research, no primary driver for a 9.5 percentage point spike in the "Will Newsmax (NMAX) beat quarterly earnings?" prediction market on August 1, 2026, can be identified. Newsmax's second-quarter 2026 earnings were not released by this date, with the conference call scheduled for August 13, 2026 [^]. The research explicitly suggests that the "9.5pp spike" on August 1, 2026, appears to be a misinterpretation of market activity or a non-standard metric [^][^]. Therefore, social media activity was irrelevant, as no posts from key figures or viral narratives related to NMAX's Q2 earnings on that specific date were found, nor would such activity be meaningfully tied to official, unreleased earnings.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves "Yes" if Newsmax reports GAAP EPS greater than $-0.03 for its next quarterly earnings, otherwise it resolves "No." A "No" resolution also occurs if earnings are not released within 45 days of the estimated August 13, 2026 date, or if a verifiable GAAP EPS figure is unavailable within 96 hours of the earnings announcement. Official company documents are the primary source, with SeekingAlpha as a fallback, and figures are rounded to the nearest cent while generally disregarding subsequent restatements.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | $0.59 | $0.50 | 59% |
Market Discussion
Newsmax (NMAX) reported full-year 2025 revenue of $189.3 million and a net loss of $99.5 million [^]. For the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, the company announced total revenue of $51.66 million and a net loss of $2.19 million [^][^]. Newsmax has scheduled its second quarter 2026 earnings conference call for August 13, 2026 [^], but the available public discussion does not include specific forecasts or analyst consensus on whether the company will beat its upcoming quarterly earnings.
5. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
YesPrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 13, 2026
6. What are the official consensus analyst estimates for Newsmax's (NMAX) upcoming quarterly earnings from data providers like Zacks or Refinitiv?
| Analyst Estimates Status | Not currently available [^] |
|---|---|
| Public Trading Start Date | March 31, 2025 [^][^][^] |
| Most Recent Financial Report | May 14, 2026 (Q1 2026 results) [^][^][^] |
Official consensus analyst estimates for Newsmax (NMAX) are currently unavailable. Major financial data providers do not offer official consensus analyst estimates for Newsmax Inc. (NMAX), which is a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange. Nasdaq's financial data pages explicitly state that earnings data for the NMAX ticker is not available [^]. Newsmax began trading under the ticker symbol NMAX on March 31, 2025 [^][^][^].
7. How might trends in digital advertising spending during Q2 2026 impact Newsmax's revenue potential compared to its Q1 2026 performance?
| Newsmax Q1 2026 Total Revenue | $51.7 million (up 14% YoY) [^] |
|---|---|
| Newsmax Q1 2026 Digital Revenue Decline | 12.7% [^] |
| Q2 2026 Incremental Digital Ad Revenue Concentration | 98% to Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon [^][^][^][^][^] |
Newsmax experienced mixed revenue performance in Q1 2026. The company reported a 14% year-over-year increase in overall revenue, reaching $51.7 million. This growth was largely propelled by a 20.8% rise in broadcasting revenue, which benefited from affiliate fees and licensing agreements. In contrast, Newsmax's digital revenue saw a 12.7% decline during the same quarter, primarily due to lower advertising, subscription, and product sales [^].
Broader digital ad spending growth may not benefit Newsmax significantly. While digital advertising expenditures broadly increased across major channels in Q2 2026, the potential for this trend to enhance Newsmax's digital advertising revenue appears limited. This is largely because 98% of the incremental digital ad dollars were concentrated among Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon [^][^][^][^][^]. Given Newsmax's Q1 2026 digital revenue decline stemming from reduced advertising [^], the highly centralized nature of the Q2 2026 digital ad growth suggests that the wider market expansion might not translate into substantial improvements for Newsmax's digital advertising performance.
8. What does recent insider trading activity at Newsmax (NMAX) since May 2026 suggest about executive confidence leading into the next earnings report?
| Insider Trading Activity Type | Exclusively option grants, not open-market purchases or sales (since May 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Directors' Option Grant Date | May 20, 2026 [^][^] |
| CFO's Option Grant Date | April 29, 2026 [^] |
Insider trading at Newsmax involved only option grants, not open-market trades. Since May 2026, all insider trading activity at Newsmax (NMAX) has been exclusively limited to option grants, with no recorded open-market purchases or sales [^][^][^][^]. These grants were made to various company directors and the Chief Financial Officer as part of the company's 2025 Omnibus Equity Incentive Plan [^][^][^].
Specific option grants were awarded to directors and the CFO. On April 29, 2026, Chief Financial Officer Darryle Burnham received an option award [^]. Following this, on May 20, 2026, stock option grants were also issued to several directors, namely Christopher Nixon Cox, David Gandler, Rene Alexander Acosta, Nancy G. Brinker, David A.R. Evans, and Paula J. Dobriansky [^][^].
Current data is insufficient to assess executive confidence in earnings. Although these details outline the type and timing of insider trading activities, they do not provide enough information to form conclusions about executive confidence regarding the company's upcoming earnings report.
9. How did Newsmax's Q1 2026 financial results, particularly revenue growth and net loss, compare against its main competitor, Fox Corporation (FOXA)?
| Newsmax Q1 2026 Revenue | $51.7 million [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Newsmax Q1 2026 Net Loss | $2.2 million [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Fox Corp Q3 Fiscal 2026 Revenue | $3.99 billion [^][^][^][^] |
Newsmax reported significant revenue growth and a reduced net loss for Q1 2026. Newsmax (NMAX) recorded total revenue of $51.7 million for Q1 2026, representing a 14.0% increase year-over-year [^][^][^][^][^]. Despite this revenue growth, the company reported a net loss of $2.2 million, which marks a substantial improvement from the $17.2 million net loss in the prior year's same quarter [^][^][^][^][^]. Newsmax commenced trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol NMAX on March 31, 2025 [^][^][^].
Fox Corporation experienced revenue and net income declines in fiscal Q3 2026. Conversely, Fox Corporation (FOXA) announced third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $3.99 billion and a net income of $175 million [^][^][^][^]. These results reflect a decrease compared to the previous year's third quarter, when revenue was $4.37 billion and net income stood at $354 million [^][^][^][^]. Fox Corporation's fiscal year concludes in June [^][^][^][^].
10. How has institutional ownership of NMAX stock changed in the most recent quarter, according to 13F filings, and what does this imply about investor sentiment?
| Number of Institutions | 225-268 institutions (as of Q2 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Ownership of Shares Outstanding | Roughly 61.85% (as of Q2 2026) [^][^] |
| New or Increased Positions | 19 additional investors (in Q2 2026) [^] |
Institutional ownership of NMAX remains substantial as of Q2 2026. As of the second quarter of 2026, institutional investors held significant positions in Newsmax Inc. (NMAX), with approximately 225 to 268 institutions owning shares. These holdings collectively represent roughly 61.85% of the total shares outstanding and nearly 80% of the float [^][^].
Institutional sentiment shows cautious positivity, marked by increased activity and net buying. In the most recent quarter, institutional interest in NMAX demonstrated growth, evidenced by 19 additional investors initiating or increasing their positions. The institutional ownership percentage also rose from 24.04% to 25.10% [^]. This suggests a cautiously positive sentiment, or an indication of accumulation, with significant net buying activity from major firms. For instance, Goldman Sachs increased its holdings by 117.7%, and LPL Financial increased theirs by 142.8% [^]. While some firms reduced smaller holdings, the overarching trend points towards sustained positive interest. In the absence of specific prediction market data on Newsmax's quarterly earnings performance, this broader institutional accumulation trend is utilized to infer market sentiment [^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Newsmax Inc. (NMAX) is scheduled to release its second quarter (Q2) 2026 financial results after the U.S. market closes on Thursday, August 13, 2026 [^][^]. Analysts have projected an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.03 for Newsmax's Q2 2026 results [^]. As of August 13, 2026, the official results have not yet been released [^]. However, Newsmax Inc. is also reported as not currently anticipating a new quarterly earnings release as of today's date, August 13, 2026, after reporting its first quarter results ended March 31, 2026, on May 14, 2026 [^][^][^][^].
In the previous quarter (Q1 2026), Newsmax reported an EPS of -$0.02, beating the analyst consensus estimate of -$0.03 [^] . Q1 2026 total quarterly revenues reached $51.7 million, reflecting a 14.0% year-over-year increase, with a net loss of $2.2 million, compared to a net loss of $17.2 million in the same quarter of the prior year [^][^]. Newsmax Inc. has reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance, projecting revenues in the range of $212 million to $216 million, representing approximately 13% growth year-over-year at the midpoint [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Closes: August 13, 2026
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Newsmax Inc.
- Trigger: (NMAX) is scheduled to release its second quarter (Q2) 2026 financial results after the U.S.
- Trigger: Market closes on Thursday, August 13, 2026 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Analysts have projected an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.03 for Newsmax's Q2 2026 results [^] .
14. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
