Short Answer

The model assigns meaningfully lower odds for Newsmax (NMAX) to beat quarterly earnings, with 'Yes' at 47.1% model probability versus 59.0% market probability, an 11.9pp divergence.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market has traded in a wide, volatile, and ultimately sideways range between 49.5% and 80.0%. The price began at 50.0% on August 1 before spiking to a high of 78.5% on August 2. It then steadily declined through a series of sharp drops. The most significant price movement was a 22-point drop on August 12, which directly followed the release of analyst earnings estimates. Research from Maxim Group projecting a Q2 EPS of ($0.04) appears to be the primary driver for that decline. The causes for other price swings earlier in August are not identified in the available context.
Crucially, the market has registered zero traded contracts. This lack of volume indicates that the price movements are not supported by any financial conviction or active positioning from participants. The price is a theoretical reflection of external news rather than a consensus formed by trading. While the 50% level has served as a loose floor, the current 54.5% probability suggests only a marginal positive sentiment on an earnings beat. This reading is entirely untested due to the absence of trading activity.
  • Yes: Newsmax achieved 14% YOY Q1 2026 revenue growth with a reduced net loss.
  • Yes: Q2 2026 digital advertising revenue is expected to exceed Q1 performance.
  • Yes: Analysts project a Q2 2026 EPS of -$0.03, a potentially low hurdle.

Current Context

Newsmax Inc. (NMAX) recently reported its first quarter 2026 financial results. The company, which began trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on March 31, 2025, reported Q1 2026 revenues of $51.7 million and a net loss of $2.2 million on May 14, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7].
As of August 13, 2026, no upcoming earnings reports are scheduled. The Q1 2026 results, for the quarter ending March 31, 2026, are the most current [3]. There is no public market-implied predictive data or consensus analyst forecast available for Newsmax (NMAX) to determine if it will "beat" future earnings expectations [7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Series B FAQ | Newsmax Media, Inc.ir.newsmax.com
  2. 2Newsmax, Inc. (NMAX) Stock Price, News, Quote & Historyfinance.yahoo.com
  3. 3Documentsec.gov
  4. 4Newsmax Begins Trading on NYSE Under Ticker Symbol "NMAX" | Newsmax Media, Inc.ir.newsmax.com
  5. 5NYSE: NMAX Newsmax Inc Earnings Dates, Reports, Callswallstreetzen.com
  6. 6Press Release, dated March 28, 2025sec.gov
  7. 7nmax-20251231sec.gov
  8. 8nmax-20260514sec.gov

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📉 August 12, 2026: 22.0pp drop

Price decreased from 78.0% to 56.0%

Outcome: Yes

What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price drop was the release of analyst earnings estimates. On August 12, 2026, research analysts, including Maxim Group, projected Newsmax's Q2 2026 earnings per share (EPS) at ($0.04) [1]. This pre-earnings release prediction, implying a larger loss than the previous quarter's ($0.02) net loss per share [2], likely tempered expectations for Newsmax to beat earnings, causing the market movement the day before the official Q2 results were due on August 13, 2026 [3]. Social media was not identified as a relevant factor in the provided information.

📉 August 05, 2026: 9.5pp drop

Price decreased from 69.5% to 60.0%

Outcome: Yes

What happened: The provided research does not indicate any social media activity from key figures or viral narratives that would explain the 9.5 percentage point drop in the Newsmax (NMAX) prediction market on August 05, 2026. No traditional news announcements or data releases specific to NMAX's Q2 2026 earnings outlook were identified on or immediately prior to this date, with the official earnings report scheduled for August 13, 2026 [3][4][5]. Therefore, based solely on the available information, a primary driver for this price movement cannot be identified from the provided sources. Social media was not found to be a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or significant noise in the provided research.

📉 August 03, 2026: 15.5pp drop

Price decreased from 78.5% to 63.0%

Outcome: Yes

What happened: The provided research does not contain specific social media posts from influential figures, viral narratives, or breaking traditional news announcements directly on August 3, 2026, that would serve as the primary driver for the 15.5 percentage point drop in the "Yes" outcome for Newsmax (NMAX) beating quarterly earnings. Newsmax was scheduled to report its second quarter 2026 financial results after the market closes on August 13, 2026, with analysts projecting an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.03 [4][6]. While NMAX stock has historically experienced significant volatility and downward pressure, often influenced by social media sentiment, since its 2025 IPO, no specific social media or news event on August 3, 2026, is identified to directly cause this particular market movement [7][8]. Therefore, social media activity appears irrelevant as a primary driver for this specific market drop, which likely reflects broader negative sentiment or anticipatory trading ahead of the upcoming earnings report.

📈 August 02, 2026: 19.0pp spike

Price increased from 59.5% to 78.5%

Outcome: Yes

What happened: The provided web research does not indicate any social media activity from key figures or viral narratives that would explain the 19.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market on August 02, 2026. Newsmax's Q2 2026 earnings report was scheduled for August 13, 2026, and while consensus estimates were available, no specific traditional news or announcements made on or immediately prior to August 2nd are present to explain the movement [9][4][10]. Based on the available information, the primary driver for this price movement cannot be identified, and social media activity appears to be irrelevant due to a complete lack of evidence.

📈 August 01, 2026: 9.5pp spike

Price increased from 50.0% to 59.5%

Outcome: Yes

What happened: Based on the provided research, no primary driver for a 9.5 percentage point spike in the "Will Newsmax (NMAX) beat quarterly earnings?" prediction market on August 1, 2026, can be identified. Newsmax's second-quarter 2026 earnings were not released by this date, with the conference call scheduled for August 13, 2026 [3]. The research explicitly suggests that the "9.5pp spike" on August 1, 2026, appears to be a misinterpretation of market activity or a non-standard metric [11][12]. Therefore, social media activity was irrelevant, as no posts from key figures or viral narratives related to NMAX's Q2 earnings on that specific date were found, nor would such activity be meaningfully tied to official, unreleased earnings.
Sources (12)
  1. 1Research Analysts Offer Predictions for Newsmax Q2 Earnings - Stock Observerthestockobserver.com
  2. 2nmax-20260331sec.gov
  3. 3Newsmax Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call | Newsmax Media, Inc.ir.newsmax.com
  4. 4Newsmax to Report Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsstocktitan.net
  5. 5Newsmax Inc. Sets August 13, 2026 Date for Q2 2026 Earnings Release - NMAX News - EveryTickereveryticker.com
  6. 6Newsmax Inc (NMAX) Earnings: Latest Report, Earnings Call...public.com
  7. 7Why Newsmax Stock Sank 12.2% Last Month and Has Kept Plummeting in August | The Motley Foolfool.com
  8. 8why is newsmax stock dropping: causes & timelinebitget.com
  9. 9Newsmax to Report Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsmorningstar.com
  10. 10Newsmax Inc (NMAX) Q2 2026 Earnings Report Previewfinance.yahoo.com
  11. 11Here Is Why Newsmax's Meta Partnership Could Accelerate the Path to Profitability for NMAX Stock.barchart.com
  12. 12Newsmax Revenue Rises 14 Percent in Q1 2026 Driven by Cable Surgeharianbasis.co

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The market resolves "Yes" if Newsmax reports GAAP EPS greater than $-0.03 for its next quarterly earnings, otherwise it resolves "No." A "No" resolution also occurs if earnings are not released within 45 days of the estimated August 13, 2026 date, or if a verifiable GAAP EPS figure is unavailable within 96 hours of the earnings announcement. Official company documents are the primary source, with SeekingAlpha as a fallback, and figures are rounded to the nearest cent while generally disregarding subsequent restatements.

Market Discussion

Newsmax (NMAX) reported full-year 2025 revenue of $189.3 million and a net loss of $99.5 million [1]. For the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, the company announced total revenue of $51.66 million and a net loss of $2.19 million [2][3]. Newsmax has scheduled its second quarter 2026 earnings conference call for August 13, 2026 [4], but the available public discussion does not include specific forecasts or analyst consensus on whether the company will beat its upcoming quarterly earnings.

Sources (4)
  1. 1Documentsec.gov
  2. 2nmax-20260331sec.gov
  3. 3nmax-20260514sec.gov
  4. 4Newsmax Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call | Newsmax Media, Inc.ir.newsmax.com

5. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Aug 13, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Trust profile
Event quality10
Poor
Liquidity
10

1 contract

Yes10
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Yes—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 1.06 log-odds, 23.0c, vol 0

Rule clarity
—Clear

Rules read clean and objective

1 contract

Yes95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 13, 2026

6. What are the official consensus analyst estimates for Newsmax's (NMAX) upcoming quarterly earnings from data providers like Zacks or Refinitiv?

Analyst Estimates StatusNot currently available [1]
Public Trading Start DateMarch 31, 2025 [2][3][4]
Most Recent Financial ReportMay 14, 2026 (Q1 2026 results) [5][6][7]
Official consensus analyst estimates for Newsmax (NMAX) are currently unavailable. Major financial data providers do not offer official consensus analyst estimates for Newsmax Inc. (NMAX), which is a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange. Nasdaq's financial data pages explicitly state that earnings data for the NMAX ticker is not available [1]. Newsmax began trading under the ticker symbol NMAX on March 31, 2025 [2][3][4].
Newsmax has reported recent quarterly and full-year financial results. The company most recently released its financial results for the first quarter of 2026 on May 14, 2026 [5][7]. Its full-year 2025 results were reported earlier, on March 26, 2026 [6].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Newsmax, Inc. Class B Common Stock (NMAX) Earningsnasdaq.com
  2. 2Series B FAQ | Newsmax Media, Inc.ir.newsmax.com
  3. 3Newsmax Begins Trading on NYSE Under Ticker Symbol...ir.newsmax.com
  4. 4https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2026478/000121390025046954/ea0243129-s1a1_newsmax.htmsec.gov
  5. 5Documentsec.gov
  6. 6Newsmax Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results | Newsmax Media, Inc.ir.newsmax.com
  7. 7Newsmax Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Newswirenewswire.com

7. How might trends in digital advertising spending during Q2 2026 impact Newsmax's revenue potential compared to its Q1 2026 performance?

Newsmax Q1 2026 Total Revenue$51.7 million (up 14% YoY) [1]
Newsmax Q1 2026 Digital Revenue Decline12.7% [1]
Q2 2026 Incremental Digital Ad Revenue Concentration98% to Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon [2][3][4][5][6]
Newsmax experienced mixed revenue performance in Q1 2026. The company reported a 14% year-over-year increase in overall revenue, reaching $51.7 million. This growth was largely propelled by a 20.8% rise in broadcasting revenue, which benefited from affiliate fees and licensing agreements. In contrast, Newsmax's digital revenue saw a 12.7% decline during the same quarter, primarily due to lower advertising, subscription, and product sales [1].
Broader digital ad spending growth may not benefit Newsmax significantly. While digital advertising expenditures broadly increased across major channels in Q2 2026, the potential for this trend to enhance Newsmax's digital advertising revenue appears limited. This is largely because 98% of the incremental digital ad dollars were concentrated among Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon [2][3][4][5][6]. Given Newsmax's Q1 2026 digital revenue decline stemming from reduced advertising [1], the highly centralized nature of the Q2 2026 digital ad growth suggests that the wider market expansion might not translate into substantial improvements for Newsmax's digital advertising performance.
Sources (6)
  1. 1Newsmax (NMAX) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  2. 2Digital Ads Benchmark Report Q2 2026 | Tinuititinuiti.com
  3. 3Q2 2026 Global Advertiser Ad Spend Trends | PubMatic Ad Spend Reportpubmatic.com
  4. 4Q2 2026 Quarterly Digital Trends Report Skai Exclusive Data and Insightsskai.io
  5. 5Digital Marketing Statistics 2026: 98% of New Ad Dollarsaxis-intelligence.com
  6. 6Ad Spend Rises Across Every Channel in Q2 2026 as... - Skaiskai.io

8. What does recent insider trading activity at Newsmax (NMAX) since May 2026 suggest about executive confidence leading into the next earnings report?

Insider Trading Activity TypeExclusively option grants, not open-market purchases or sales (since May 2026) [1][2][3][4]
Directors' Option Grant DateMay 20, 2026 [2][4]
CFO's Option Grant DateApril 29, 2026 [1]
Insider trading at Newsmax involved only option grants, not open-market trades. Since May 2026, all insider trading activity at Newsmax (NMAX) has been exclusively limited to option grants, with no recorded open-market purchases or sales [1][2][3][4]. These grants were made to various company directors and the Chief Financial Officer as part of the company's 2025 Omnibus Equity Incentive Plan [1][2][4].
Specific option grants were awarded to directors and the CFO. On April 29, 2026, Chief Financial Officer Darryle Burnham received an option award [1]. Following this, on May 20, 2026, stock option grants were also issued to several directors, namely Christopher Nixon Cox, David Gandler, Rene Alexander Acosta, Nancy G. Brinker, David A.R. Evans, and Paula J. Dobriansky [2][4].
Current data is insufficient to assess executive confidence in earnings. Although these details outline the type and timing of insider trading activities, they do not provide enough information to form conclusions about executive confidence regarding the company's upcoming earnings report.
Sources (4)
  1. 1Newsmax Inc. (NMAX) - Insider Trading Form 4 Filingssecform4.com
  2. 2https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2026478/000149710726000003/0001497107-26-000003.txtsec.gov
  3. 3Newsmax, Inc. Insider Trading and Ownership | CapEdgecapedge.com
  4. 4https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2026478/0001628280-26-037364.txtsec.gov

9. How did Newsmax's Q1 2026 financial results, particularly revenue growth and net loss, compare against its main competitor, Fox Corporation (FOXA)?

Newsmax Q1 2026 Revenue$51.7 million [1][2][3][4][5]
Newsmax Q1 2026 Net Loss$2.2 million [1][2][3][4][5]
Fox Corp Q3 Fiscal 2026 Revenue$3.99 billion [6][7][8][9]
Newsmax reported significant revenue growth and a reduced net loss for Q1 2026. Newsmax (NMAX) recorded total revenue of $51.7 million for Q1 2026, representing a 14.0% increase year-over-year [1][2][3][4][5]. Despite this revenue growth, the company reported a net loss of $2.2 million, which marks a substantial improvement from the $17.2 million net loss in the prior year's same quarter [1][2][3][4][5]. Newsmax commenced trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol NMAX on March 31, 2025 [10][11][12].
Fox Corporation experienced revenue and net income declines in fiscal Q3 2026. Conversely, Fox Corporation (FOXA) announced third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $3.99 billion and a net income of $175 million [6][7][8][9]. These results reflect a decrease compared to the previous year's third quarter, when revenue was $4.37 billion and net income stood at $354 million [6][7][8][9]. Fox Corporation's fiscal year concludes in June [6][7][8][9].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Newsmax Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsir.newsmax.com
  2. 2Documentsec.gov
  3. 3nmax-20260331sec.gov
  4. 4Newsmax revenue rises 14% as quarterly loss narrows | NMAX Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
  5. 5Newsmax (NMAX) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  6. 6fox-20260331sec.gov
  7. 7Documentsec.gov
  8. 8FOX REPORTS THIRD QUARTER FISCAL 2026 REVENUE OF $3.99 BILLION, NET INCOME OF $175 MILLION, AND ADJUSTED EBITDA OF $954 MILLIONprnewswire.com
  9. 9Fox Corp Q3 2026 revenue $3.99B, EPS $0.38 | FOX 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  10. 10Newsmax Begins Trading on NYSE Under Ticker Symbol...ir.newsmax.com
  11. 11Series B FAQ | Newsmax Media, Inc.ir.newsmax.com
  12. 12https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2026478/000121390025046954/ea0243129-s1a1_newsmax.htmsec.gov

10. How has institutional ownership of NMAX stock changed in the most recent quarter, according to 13F filings, and what does this imply about investor sentiment?

Number of Institutions225-268 institutions (as of Q2 2026) [1][2]
Ownership of Shares OutstandingRoughly 61.85% (as of Q2 2026) [1][2]
New or Increased Positions19 additional investors (in Q2 2026) [2]
Institutional ownership of NMAX remains substantial as of Q2 2026. As of the second quarter of 2026, institutional investors held significant positions in Newsmax Inc. (NMAX), with approximately 225 to 268 institutions owning shares. These holdings collectively represent roughly 61.85% of the total shares outstanding and nearly 80% of the float [1][2].
Institutional sentiment shows cautious positivity, marked by increased activity and net buying. In the most recent quarter, institutional interest in NMAX demonstrated growth, evidenced by 19 additional investors initiating or increasing their positions. The institutional ownership percentage also rose from 24.04% to 25.10% [2]. This suggests a cautiously positive sentiment, or an indication of accumulation, with significant net buying activity from major firms. For instance, Goldman Sachs increased its holdings by 117.7%, and LPL Financial increased theirs by 142.8% [2]. While some firms reduced smaller holdings, the overarching trend points towards sustained positive interest. In the absence of specific prediction market data on Newsmax's quarterly earnings performance, this broader institutional accumulation trend is utilized to infer market sentiment [1][3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1NMAX - Newsmax Inc. - Class B Common Stock, $0.001 par value per share (CUSIP 65250K105) – Q2 2026 13F Institutional Holders - PortfolioSavvyportfoliosavvy.com
  2. 2Newsmax Inc. (NMAX) 13F Institutional Ownership | Holdings & Changes Analysis - Stocknearstocknear.com
  3. 3Newsmax, Inc. Class B Common Stock (NMAX) Institutional...nasdaq.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Newsmax Inc. (NMAX) is scheduled to release its second quarter (Q2) 2026 financial results after the U.S. market closes on Thursday, August 13, 2026 [1][2]. Analysts have projected an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.03 for Newsmax's Q2 2026 results [2]. As of August 13, 2026, the official results have not yet been released [2]. However, Newsmax Inc. is also reported as not currently anticipating a new quarterly earnings release as of today's date, August 13, 2026, after reporting its first quarter results ended March 31, 2026, on May 14, 2026 [3][4][5][6].
In the previous quarter (Q1 2026), Newsmax reported an EPS of -$0.02, beating the analyst consensus estimate of -$0.03 [2]. Q1 2026 total quarterly revenues reached $51.7 million, reflecting a 14.0% year-over-year increase, with a net loss of $2.2 million, compared to a net loss of $17.2 million in the same quarter of the prior year [6][7]. Newsmax Inc. has reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance, projecting revenues in the range of $212 million to $216 million, representing approximately 13% growth year-over-year at the midpoint [7].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Closes: August 13, 2026
Sources (7)
  1. 1Newsmax to Report Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsstocktitan.net
  2. 2Newsmax Inc (NMAX) Earnings: Latest Report, Earnings Call...public.com
  3. 3Documentsec.gov
  4. 4nmax-20260331sec.gov
  5. 5nmax-20260514sec.gov
  6. 6https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2026478/000202647826000046/0002026478-26-000046.txtsec.gov
  7. 7newsmaxirpresentation511sec.gov