Coors Light Point of Sale Growth in August
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Coors Light growth below -20% is indicated by Carbon Arc data, down to -29.7%.
- Growth above -16% appears unlikely, given broader U.S. beer industry weakness.
- August growth above -8% is improbable; daily data implies at least -8.7% decline.
Current Context
Sources (8)
- 1Coors Light Point of Sale Growth in Augustkalshi.com
- 2Coors Light Point of Sale Growth in August | Prediction Marketscoinbase.com
- 3Molson Coors Beverage Company Reports 2026 Second...ir.molsoncoors.com
- 4Molson Coors Beverage Co slides back into red with Q2 sales decline – results data - Global Drinks Inteldrinks-intel.com
- 5Molson Coors Beverage Company Reports 2026 Second...finance.yahoo.com
- 6News Release of Molson Coors Beverage Company, dated Asec.gov
- 7August Beer Purchasers’ Index Reveals Industry in ‘Cautionary’ Position | Brewboundbrewbound.com
- 8Bernstein Backs Four Global Brewers as U.S. Volume Headwinds Mask Select Outperformancetradevae.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above -12%
📈 September 01, 2026: 36.0pp spike
Price increased from 19.0% to 55.0%
Outcome: Above -16%
📉 August 30, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 96.0% to 87.0%
📈 August 29, 2026: 26.0pp spike
Price increased from 70.0% to 96.0%
📉 August 27, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 79.0% to 70.0%
Outcome: Above -8%
📉 August 26, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 9.0% to 1.0%
Sources (17)
- 1Coors Light Point of Sale Growth in Augustkalshi.com
- 2U.S. retail beer sales slowed in early Augustvinetur.com
- 3https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/24545/000002454526000071/R64.htmsec.gov
- 4https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/24545/000002454526000070/0000024545-26-000070.txtsec.gov
- 5News Release of Molson Coors Beverage Company, dated Asec.gov
- 6Molson Coors Beverage Company Reports 2026 Second...ir.molsoncoors.com
- 7Prisms — Daily Reference Data | Carbon Arccarbonarc.co
- 8https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/24545/000002454526000035/0000024545-26-000035.txtsec.gov
- 9Molson Coors Beverage Company Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary - BeyondLinkbeyondlink.live
- 10Coors Light: The Coooors Call Breakdown | Selfstormingselfstorming.com
- 11WHY SHOUT "GOOOOAL," WHEN YOU COULD SHOUT "COOOORS?"prnewswire.com
- 12Molson Coors Q2 2026 slides: volumes fall, costs rise amid...investing.com
- 13Molson Coors Q2 2026 EPS falls 42.3% | TAP 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
- 14Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies | PolyScopepoly-scope.com
- 15Will average gas prices be above $4.030?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 16LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group — Historical market archive | Orrery | Orreryorrery.me
- 17Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on August 10? — Historical market archive | Orrery | Orreryorrery.me
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market resolves based on the Coors Light Point of Sale Growth in August 2026. A "YES" contract for "Above -12%" resolves true if the growth is greater than -12%, while a "NO" contract resolves true if the growth is -12% or less. The market is currently awaiting final data for August 2026, with the maximum payout scheduled for September 6, 2026.
Market Discussion
Prediction markets are hosting contracts regarding Coors Light Point of Sale growth for August 2026, with traders betting on whether growth remains above thresholds like -16% or -24% [1]. Daily reference data for Coors Light throughout August 2026 shows values generally fluctuating between 70 and 91 [2]. While Molson Coors announced on August 6, 2026, that Q2 2026 results reflected persistent volume pressure and declines in net sales and financial volume for the period ended June 30, 2026, no official Coors Light-specific POS growth metrics for August 2026 have been published as of September 1, 2026 [3].
5. Trader Dashboard
6. What late-summer economic data or preliminary industry reports could influence Coors Light's final point-of-sale figures for August 2026?
| US Beer Dollar Sales Decline | 4.5% year-over-year (four weeks ending August 8, 2026) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| US Beer Case Volume Decline | 5.5% (four weeks ending August 8, 2026) [1][2] |
| Consumer Disinterest Contribution | 72% of market-wide decline [3][2] |
Sources (5)
- 1U.S. beer sales fell 4.5% in early August, extending a late-summer slump.vinetur.com
- 2U.S. retail beer sales slowed in early Augustvinetur.com
- 3Craft Beer’s Summer Slump Deepens as Declines Accelerate in August Circana Report | Brewboundbrewbound.com
- 4Bernstein Backs Four Global Brewers as U.S. Volume Headwinds Mask Select Outperformancetradevae.com
- 5Molson Coors Beverage Company Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary - BeyondLinkbeyondlink.live
7. How do Molson Coors' Q2 2026 results and broader Nielsen beer market data support the market's expectation of a moderate decline for Coors Light?
| Molson Coors Q2 2026 Net Sales | Down 3.3% (3.6% in constant currency) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| U.S. Beer Industry Off-Premise Dollar Sales | Down 3.6% to 4.5% [4][5][6][7] |
| Coors Light Dollar Sales (early August 2026) | Down 4.9% [6] |
Sources (9)
- 1Molson Coors Beverage Company Reports 2026 Second...ir.molsoncoors.com
- 2News Release of Molson Coors Beverage Company, dated Asec.gov
- 3Molson Coors Q2 2026 EPS falls 42.3% | TAP 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
- 4U.S. retail beer sales slowed in early Augustvinetur.com
- 5U.S. Beer sales slows as summer momentum fades - NielsenIQ | Food Business Middle East & Africa - No.1 Food & Beverage Formulation, Processing & Packaging Publicationfoodbusinessmea.com
- 6U.S. beer sales fell 4.5% in early August, extending a late-summer slump.vinetur.com
- 7U.S. alcohol sales fell 3.4% through mid-August after summer demand failed to reboundvinetur.com
- 8Coors Light Point of Sale Growth in Augustkalshi.com
- 9Coors Light Point of Sale Growth in August | Prediction Marketscoinbase.com
8. How did Coors Light's point-of-sale performance compare to key rival Bud Light in the most recent reporting period (Q2 2026)?
| Molson Coors Q2 2026 Financial Volume Decline | 5.4% (Q2 2026) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Molson Coors Q2 2026 Brand Volume Decline | 4.8% (Q2 2026) [1][2][3] |
| Bud Light U.S. Barrel Volume Projected Decline | 19.6% (full year 2026) [4] |
Sources (6)
- 1Molson Coors Q2 2026 EPS falls 42.3% | TAP 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
- 2Molson Coors Beverage Company Reports 2026 Second Quarter Resultsca.finance.yahoo.com
- 3Molson Coors Q2 2026 Earnings: Lower Volumes and Costs Weigh on Profittradingkey.com
- 4Bud Light Is on Track to Lose 3.1 Million More U.S. Barrels in 2026vinetur.com
- 5AB InBev Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results - Business Wire Chinabusinesswirechina.com
- 6Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV Q2 2026 Earnings Reportmarketbeat.com
9. What is the typical release schedule for the specific Nielsen or IRI data that will determine the August 2026 resolution for this market?
| Typical POS Data Lag | approximately 9 days [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Early Market Read Delivery | two days after a week's close [3][4] |
| Early Market Read Advantage | seven-day head start [4] |
Sources (6)
- 1What Is (And Isn't) Measured by Syndicated Retail Sales Data?cpgdatainsights.com
- 2Syndicated Data and POS Data in Category Managementgocaptain.ai
- 3Nielsen launches first-to market Friday morning data delivery for retail measurement - NIQnielseniq.com
- 4NIQ - NIQ Launches Early Market Read, Providing a Seven-Day Head Start on Weekly Insightinvestors.nielseniq.com
- 5Circana Data Explained (Formerly IRI) — Scoutcpgscout.ai
- 6Timing is Everything: Which Time Periods Should You Get on Your Database?cpgdatainsights.com
10. Based on its performance in the first half of 2026, what sales trajectory must Molson Coors achieve in August to remain on track for its full-year 2026 guidance?
| Full-year 2026 net sales revenue growth guidance | Flat (+/- 1%) on a constant currency basis compared to 2025 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| 1H 2026 net sales revenue change | Decrease of 1.0% on a constant currency basis [1][2] |
| August 2026 Coors Light performance index | Largely in the 85-90 range, relative to a 100 base from the prior year (Carbon Arc) [3][4][5] |
Sources (11)
- 1Molson Coors Beverage Company Reports 2026 Second...ir.molsoncoors.com
- 2Molson Coors Beverage Company Reports 2026 First...ir.molsoncoors.com
- 3Coors Light Point of Sale Growth in Augustkalshi.com
- 4Point Of Sale Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 5Prisms — Daily Reference Data | Carbon Arccarbonarc.co
- 6TAP_Q22026, Page: 3Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 7TAP_Q22026, Page: 4Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 8www.businesswire.comOctagon Agentbusinesswire.com
- 9www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
- 10www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 11www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 14, 2026
- Closes: September 07, 2026
Sources (19)
- 1Coors Light Point of Sale Growth in Augustkalshi.com
- 2Coors Light Point of Sale Growth in Augustapp.acetrader.com
- 3Coors Light Point of Sale Growth in August | Prediction Marketscoinbase.com
- 4News Release of Molson Coors Beverage Company, dated Asec.gov
- 5https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/24545/000002454526000070/0000024545-26-000070.txtsec.gov
- 6TAP_Q22026, Page: 8Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 7TAP_Q22026, Page: 6Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 8TAP_Q22026, Page: 3Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 9TAP_Q22026, Page: 5Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 10TAP_Q22026, Page: 1Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 11TAP_Q22026, Page: 4Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 12Prisms — Daily Reference Data | Carbon Arccarbonarc.co
- 13Molson Coors Q2 2026 EPS falls 42.3% | TAP 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
- 14Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 15Molson Coors Beverage Co (TAP) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call...finance.yahoo.com
- 16Molson Coors Beverage Company Reports 2026 Second...ir.molsoncoors.com
- 17Molson Coors (TAP) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com
- 18Molson Coors Beverage Company Q2 2026 Earnings Call...finance.yahoo.com
- 19Tm266541d1 8k.htmsec.gov