7Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026?
Short Answer
The 7Y US Treasury yield is likely to reach 5.16% or above on October 16, 2026 (market 74.0%). However, a sharp decline in actual yields on October 15, driven by safe-haven demand and reduced expectations for an immediate Fed hike, points to lower probabilities for higher thresholds.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The contract's sharpest price decline on October 15 was driven by a flight to safety in the underlying U.S. Treasury market. A selloff in technology stocks, reportedly AI-driven, caused investors to buy government bonds, pushing actual Treasury yields lower. The falling yields made the market's proposition of a 7-year yield at or above 4.95% less likely, resulting in a 24 percentage point price drop.
Earlier, on October 10, the market saw a 20 percentage point spike fueled by the opposite dynamic: a broad U.S. Treasury selloff. That selloff, attributed to macroeconomic factors, pushed benchmark yields higher and increased the market-implied probability that the 7-year yield would exceed the 4.95% threshold. The market's total volume of 772 contracts suggests these price swings primarily reflected repricing based on the underlying rates market rather than conviction from heavy trading activity within this specific contract.
- 7Y yields above 5.16% appear less likely after October 15 safe-haven demand. Reduced immediate Federal Reserve hike expectations further contributed to lower October 15 yields. * The 4.96% threshold shows model-market alignment amid mild 7Y-10Y spread easing.
Current Context
Prediction markets indicate a high probability of an elevated 7-year yield. As of October 15, 2026, prediction markets implied a high probability that the 7-year U.S. Treasury par yield on October 16 would be at least 4.96% (approximately 94% based on PredictMarketCap/Kalshi data) or 5.16% and above (74% on Robinhood data) [1][2]. The best evidence-backed point estimate from this data is roughly 5.16% or higher [1][2]. A Financial Forecast Center model, updated October 2, projected the average 7-year Treasury yield for October 2026 at 5.09%, with an average error of ±0.084 percentage points; this is a monthly average, not a specific forecast for October 16 [3].
Yields fell October 15 amid safe-haven demand and shifting Fed expectations. On October 15, Treasury yields decreased due to safe-haven demand, an AI-related equity selloff, lower oil prices, and reduced expectations of an imminent Fed hike [4][5][6]. Ten-year yields were around 5.08%–5.09%, reaching roughly three-week lows alongside 30-year yields [4][7]. This indicated near-term downside pressure on the 7-year yield, though inflation and fiscal-supply risks remain [4][5][6][7][8]. Key catalysts for October 16 include U.S. import and export prices at 8:30 a.m. ET, speeches by Fed Chair Warsh and other central-bank officials, industrial production and capacity utilization, the federal budget balance, and TIC long-term purchases [9]. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 27–28, 2026 [10]. Prediction markets still suggest a hawkish policy backdrop, with one October FOMC market showing roughly 72% odds of a hold and 28% odds of a hike, while another rates-market summary showed an approximately 80% YES price for the October decision with substantial odds of another 2026 hike [11][12]. These figures are not directly comparable due to contract differences [11][12].
The base case for the 7-year yield is 5.1%–5.2%. The estimated base case yield for October 16 is near 5.1%–5.2%, with market pricing favoring at least 5.16% [1][3][4][5][6][9][10]. Downside risks include softer inflation or import-price signals, continued equity weakness, or dovish Federal Reserve communication [4][5][6][9][10]. Upside risks involve hot price data, hawkish guidance, or renewed fiscal or supply concerns [4][5][6][9][10].
Sources (12)
- 17Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026? Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
- 2Financial Treasury Yields Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
- 37 Year U.S. Treasury Note Yield Forecastforecasts.org
- 4Treasury Yields Slide to Three-Week Lows as Oil Prices Fall - WSJwsj.com
- 5Dollar pulls back from 18-month high as Treasury yields fall; Fed hike bets easecnbc.com
- 6U.S. Treasury yields fall sharply on AI jitters - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com
- 7Treasuries Hedged an Equity Rout on a Hot Inflation Day · Aephelaephel.com
- 8U.S. Treasury yields: investors await more economic datacnbc.com
- 9Economic Calendar for 16 October 2026 | Kinzankinzan.io
- 10Federal Reserve Board - Calendar: October 2026federalreserve.gov
- 11Economic Release Calendar With Kalshi Odds: CPI, Jobs, GDP, Fedpredictionscout.com
- 12Fed & Rates Prediction Markets — RateSpikeratespike.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: 5.1% or above
📉 October 15, 2026: 70.0pp drop
Price decreased from 84.0% to 14.0%
What happened: The 70.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market price for the 7Y US Treasury yield on October 15, 2026, primarily resulted from a sharp decline in actual Treasury yields that day. This decline was driven by a flight to safety amid an AI-driven technology selloff and concerns about debt-heavy AI spending [1][2][3]. Additionally, easing expectations for an October Federal Reserve interest rate hike, following official signals to wait for clearer evidence, further contributed to lower yields [1][3]. Based on the provided research, social media activity was not identified as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or noise, and appears irrelevant to this specific market movement.
Outcome: 5.16% or above
📈 October 14, 2026: 39.0pp spike
Price increased from 35.0% to 74.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market's 39.0 percentage point spike was the release of hotter-than-expected September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on October 14, 2026 [4]. This traditional news announcement, showing CPI rising 0.6% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year against a 3.6% expectation, briefly increased rate-hike odds and lifted Treasury yields, thus increasing the probability of a higher future yield in the prediction market [4]. The research explicitly states that this movement was "not an identified social-media catalyst" [4]. Social media activity was irrelevant to this specific price move.
Outcome: 5.18% or above
📉 October 13, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 28.0% to 17.0%
What happened: The 11.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market price for "5.18% or above" on October 13, 2026, was primarily driven by a broad rally in U.S. Treasury bonds, which pushed the 7-year yield lower [5]. This movement coincided with traditional news and commentary, including dovish remarks from Fed Vice Chair Waller stating no need for a 2027 hike [5][6]. Lower oil prices and haven demand during a technology-led equity sell-off also contributed to the decline in yields [5][7][6]. Based on the available information, social media was irrelevant as a driver for this price movement.
Outcome: 4.98% or above
📈 October 12, 2026: 13.0pp spike
Price increased from 80.0% to 93.0%
What happened:
The 13.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market price was primarily driven by broader upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, stemming from hotter-than-expected September CPI data, mortgage-hedging feedback, and elevated inflation/policy concerns [8]. This increased the perceived likelihood of the 7-year yield remaining at 4.98% or above. Although the Treasury cash market was closed on October 12, bond ETFs slipped, implying continued yield pressure [9].
Social media attention, while present, was explicitly identified as a "secondary amplifier rather than an evidenced primary catalyst," highlighting existing trends like 10-year yields reaching 5.35% and promoting Treasuries [10]. Therefore, social media was a contributing accelerant, reflecting and amplifying existing market sentiment rather than initiating the significant price movement.
Outcome: 5.04% or above
📈 October 10, 2026: 21.0pp spike
Price increased from 60.0% to 81.0%
What happened: Despite the "21.0 percentage point spike" being uncorroborated in market data and likely a unit error for basis points, the primary driver for a significant upward movement in the prediction market on October 10, 2026, was a broad U.S. Treasury selloff [11]. This selloff was fueled by macroeconomic factors including elevated energy prices linked to the Iran conflict, fears of inflation, expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening, and heavy government borrowing [12][13][14]. On October 10, the 7-year cash yield reportedly increased by 31.8 basis points over a five-day measure, directly impacting the market's assessment of future yields [12]. Social media activity was not a clearly documented primary driver for this movement [12][15][16].
Sources (16)
- 1Dollar pulls back from 18-month high as Treasury yields fall; Fed hike bets easecnbc.com
- 2U.S. Treasury yields fall sharply on AI jitters - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com
- 3Is the AI rout making bonds safe again? By Reutersinvesting.com
- 4US Treasury yields fall after reversing inflation-led selloff By Investing.cominvesting.com
- 5TREASURY WRAP: T-NOTE FUTURES (Z6) SETTLES 5+TICKS HIGHER AT 104-23+ | Newsquawknewsquawk.com
- 6Bond Market Extends Tentative Recoverywsj.com
- 7U.S. Treasury yields fall as energy prices pull backcnbc.com
- 8Monday, October 12, 2026rbcwealthmanagement.com
- 9The Treasury market is closed, but bond ETFs slip, implying yields are still risingmarketwatch.com
- 10U.S. Treasuries are the new social media ragewidemoatresearch.com
- 11seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
- 12TREASURIES-US bonds slip as investors await inflation data, Fed signals | MarketScreener Australiaau.marketscreener.com
- 13US bond market under strain: 5 factors fuelling the Treasury selloff - Global Markets News | The Financial Expressfinancialexpress.com
- 14Treasuries Slip on Inflation Worry as Energy Costs Stay High | Stock Market Newslivemint.com
- 1510-year Treasury note yield hits highest level since 2002 as traders brace for key bond salecnbc.com
- 16Treasury yields hit 24-year highs as global sell-off acceleratesnbcnews.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market resolves YES if the 7-year US Treasury yield for "tomorrow" is at or above the specific percentage threshold indicated in the market contract (e.g., 5.08%, 5.1%, or 5.12%). Conversely, it resolves NO if the yield is below that threshold. The maximum payout date for this market is listed as October 16, 2026.
Market Discussion
As of October 15, 2026, a prediction market indicates varying probabilities for the 7Y US Treasury yield on October 16, 2026, such as 84% for 4.96% or above and 74% for 5.16% or above, despite internal inconsistencies in the displayed ladder [1]. The market settles against the U.S. Treasury's published daily par yield for the date [1], and context includes a non-market forecast updated October 2 projecting an October 2026 monthly average of 5.09% [2] and a historical 7-year yield of 5.13% on October 9, 2026 [3].
5. Trust Index
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score76Good
Market integrity is low (61), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score49High Risk
Trust score70Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What key economic data releases scheduled for October 16, 2026, could significantly influence the 7-year Treasury yield on its resolution day?
| Industrial Production Release | 9:15 a.m. ET [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Trade Price Indices Release | 8:30 a.m. ET [1] |
| Major US Economic Data | None scheduled (independent source) [3] |
Major economic releases on October 16 will impact Treasury yields. On October 16, 2026, two primary U.S. economic data releases are expected to significantly influence the 7-year Treasury yield. The Federal Reserve G.17 report on September Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization is scheduled for release at 9:15 a.m. ET [1][2]. A robust reading from this report could elevate Treasury yields due to stronger growth expectations, while a weaker outcome might push yields lower [1]. Additionally, the U.S. Trade Price Indices for September, slated for 8:30 a.m. ET, can affect the 7-year yield through inflation expectations, especially if import prices suggest renewed goods-price pressure [1].
Secondary data releases are less impactful, major shocks are unlikely. Beyond these primary indicators, U.S. Foreign Portfolio Flows for August are set for release at 4:00 p.m. ET [1]. While this is considered less likely to drive initial market movements compared to the earlier domestic data, exceptionally strong or weak foreign demand for U.S. securities could still impact Treasury term premiums and yields [1]. Routine Federal Reserve releases, such as H.15 Selected Interest Rates, are also scheduled but serve primarily as reference or market-statistical information rather than major forward-looking macro catalysts [4][5][2]. Moreover, one independent source indicates that October 16 lacks any major U.S. economic data, suggesting the absence of significant CPI, payrolls, retail sales, GDP, PCE, or FOMC decision shocks [3].
Sources (5)
- 1Calendar of Economic Release Dates (October 2026) | Postscotiabank.com
- 2Federal Reserve Board - Calendar: October 2026federalreserve.gov
- 3Weekly Event Calendar: 10/12/2026 – 10/16/2026 | eOptioneoption.com
- 4Economic Release Calendar | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 5Economic Calendar — This Week — tradmaptradmap.com
7. How do quantitative models, such as the Financial Forecast Center's projections, align with the probabilities implied by prediction markets for the October 2026 yield?
| 7-year US Treasury yield >= 5.00% | 94% probability (October 15, 2026) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| 7-year US Treasury yield >= 5.16% | 74% probability (October 15, 2026) [1][2][3] |
| 7-year US Treasury yield >= 5.08% | 65¢ implied probability (October 9, 2026) [4] |
A direct comparison between quantitative models and prediction markets is not possible. A direct quantitative comparison between the Financial Forecast Center’s (FFC) projections and prediction market probabilities for the October 2026 7-year Treasury yield cannot be established. This is due to the absence of a specific, directly comparable point estimate from the FFC. While the FFC’s homepage indicates regularly updated forecasts, the available public information does not include a 7-year Treasury forecast for October 16, 2026. Instead, it displays 30-year Treasury projections dated April 10, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]. Therefore, any claims of close alignment between these two sources are unsupported by the available evidence.
Prediction markets suggest the October 2026 7-year Treasury yield will be above 5.00%. Prediction market pricing provides insights into expected outcomes for the 7-year US Treasury yield on October 16, 2026, implying a central outcome above approximately 5.00%. As of October 15, 2026, data derived from prediction markets indicated a 94% probability for the yield being 5.00% or above, an 88% probability for 5.04% or above, and a 74% probability for 5.16% or above [1][2][3]. Earlier pricing from October 9 presented materially different probabilities, showing a 65¢ implied probability for 5.08% or above and 55¢ for 5.00% or above [4]. These contract prices reflect threshold probabilities rather than a single point forecast [1][2].
Sources (5)
- 17Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 27Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026? Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
- 3Financial Treasury Yields Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
- 4October 9, 2026: 7Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026 Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 5Financial Market and Economic Outlook: Projections and Trends | Financial Forecast Centerfinancialforecastcenter.com
8. How has the spread between the 7-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields evolved in Q3-Q4 2026, and what does this relationship imply for the market's outcome?
| 7Y-10Y Real Yield Spread (Sep 30, 2026) | -11 bp (2.82% vs 2.93%) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Widest Nominal 7Y-10Y Spread Inversion (Oct 7, 2026) | -13 bp (5.15% vs 5.28%) [1][3] |
| 7Y US Treasury Yield Prediction (Oct 16, 2026) | 74% probability of 5.16% or above [4][5] |
The 7Y-10Y Treasury spread showed mild inversion, easing slightly in October. At the close of Q3 2026, the spread between the 7-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury real yields was -11 basis points (bp), with rates at 2.82% and 2.93% respectively on September 30 [1][2]. Entering Q4, the nominal 7Y-10Y spread was -10 bp on October 1, subsequently widening to a -13 bp inversion on October 7, with nominal yields at 5.15% for the 7Y and 5.28% for the 10Y. Real yields reflected a nearly -14 bp spread on the same date [1][3][2]. Following this early-October trough, the inversion modestly eased by October 14, narrowing the nominal spread to -10 bp (7Y at 5.09% and 10Y at 5.19%) and the real yield spread to -11 bp (7Y at 2.73% and 10Y at 2.84%) [1][3][2].
Consistent inversion suggested specific risks rather than a classic recession signal. This persistent inversion, oscillating approximately between 7 and 13 basis points with both nominal yields hovering near 5%, indicated that the market was pricing a modestly inverted intermediate curve [1][4][5]. This configuration was not interpreted as a classic sharply inverted signal for an impending recession. Instead, it was considered consistent with the embedding of greater term, inflation, or fiscal risk within the 10-year maturity when compared to the 7-year maturity [1][4][5].
Prediction markets indicated a high probability for the 7Y yield to rise. For the prediction market question "7Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026?", Kalshi odds reported on October 15, 2026, revealed a 74% probability that the 7Y yield would be 5.16% or higher [4][5]. Given the observed 7Y par yield of 5.09% on October 14, this market sentiment pointed to an expected outcome roughly between 5.1% and 5.2%, acknowledging potential movement on the following day and specific contract settlement rules [1][4][5].
Sources (5)
- 1https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_yield_curvehome.treasury.gov
- 2https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curvehome.treasury.gov
- 3https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_yield_curvehome.treasury.gov
- 47Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 57Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026? Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
9. What does the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveal about institutional versus speculative positioning in U.S. Treasury futures?
| Commercial Net Positioning (Oct 6, 2026) | +811,387 contracts [1] |
|---|---|
| Non-Commercial Net Positioning (Oct 6, 2026) | -842,112 contracts [1] |
| Kalshi 7-year Yield above 5.16% (Oct 16, 2026) | 74% [2][3] |
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a significant split in Treasury futures positioning. The report, dated October 6, 2026, indicates a clear divergence in U.S. Treasury futures, particularly T-Notes, where commercial participants were materially net long, while non-commercial participants held a substantial net short position [4][1]. Specifically, the CME futures-and-options summary for that date showed commercial net positioning at +811,387 contracts and non-commercial net positioning at -842,112 contracts [1]. This positioning coincided with a period of high activity and elevated hedging demand, with CME reporting a record September Treasury-futures average daily volume of 7.7 million contracts [5]. This COT evidence suggests institutional long-duration or hedging demand, potentially indicating a contrarian risk to further yield increases given the speculative short exposure [4][1][5].
COT report has limitations, but market anticipates higher 7-year yields. While the COT report offers insights, it is important to note its limitations; it is issued weekly, provides aggregate data, and does not offer specifics for individual contracts like the 7-year Treasury [4][1][2][3]. Despite these constraints, the broader market consensus as of October 15, 2026, anticipated that the 7-year yield would remain above 5.16% on October 16, with Kalshi pricing this specific scenario at 74% [2][3].
10. What recent statements from Federal Reserve officials could signal a shift in monetary policy outlook ahead of the late-October 2026 FOMC meeting?
| SEP participants projecting 2026 hike | 16 of 18 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8] |
|---|---|
| Likelihood of another 2026 hike | Most officials view as likely appropriate [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8] |
| Urgency for October 2026 hike | Several officials see no urgency [1][3][5] |
Federal Reserve officials maintain a hawkish medium-term stance, but lack urgency for an October hike. Most officials anticipate at least one more rate hike in 2026, yet there is less urgency for an immediate adjustment at the late-October 2026 FOMC meeting [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. Several officials advocate for a data-dependent approach, preferring to wait for additional economic indicators before making further adjustments rather than implementing a hike this October [1][3][5].
Senior Fed officials emphasize data dependence, delaying immediate rate action. On October 8, Governor Christopher Waller noted that additional hikes would support inflation's return to 2% if data evolves as expected, emphasizing that such hikes need not be consecutive [3]. Boston Fed President Susan Collins indicated on October 13 that further rate increases might be appropriate before year-end, contingent on incoming data and risks, including from energy costs, tariffs, and AI demand [2]. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated on October 14 that while further rate increases are likely eventually, there is no urgency for an October decision, citing elevated inflation risks but not enough reason to act before clearer data [1]. New York Fed President John Williams suggested on October 13 that one more 2026 hike might be suitable but saw no need for further tightening in 2027 [4][8]. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson also stated on October 1 that future policy should depend on data trends, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks, implying a need for more time [5][9][6].
Hawkish guidance supports higher yields, but an immediate October hike is unlikely. The Federal Reserve officials' hawkish guidance regarding future policy supports elevated yields and a higher-for-longer risk premium in the market, as reflected in the October 16 7-year Treasury yield. However, their repeated statements against rushing an October hike reduce the likelihood of an immediate policy shock at the upcoming meeting [1][4][6][7].
Sources (9)
- 1Exclusive-Fed’s Daly says rate hikes likely needed, but not urgently By Reutersinvesting.com
- 2Fed’s Collins sees another rate hike on the table before end of 2026 By Reutersinvesting.com
- 3Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook - Federal Reserve Boardfederalreserve.gov
- 4Warsh's Quest for Quiet Fed Gets Vocal Pushbackmoney.usnews.com
- 5Speech by Vice Chair Jefferson on the U.S. economy and monetary policy - Federal Reserve Boardfederalreserve.gov
- 6Fed officials see another hike coming, but no sign as to... - CNBCcnbc.com
- 7The Fed - Monetary Policy: - Federal Reservefederalreserve.gov
- 8Fed's Williams currently sees no need for rate hike in 2027businesstimes.com.sg
- 9Fed policymakers lean against October rate hike - Reutersreuters.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Prediction markets on October 15 priced the 7-year U.S. Treasury par yield at 5.16% or above on Friday, October 16, 2026, with 74% odds; lower thresholds like 4.96% were priced at 94%, implying a modal zone of at least roughly 5.04%-5.16% [1][2]. Similarly, very high odds were priced for the 10-year Treasury being at least 5.12% (95%) on October 16, with 5.14% at 87% odds [3]. The latest official FRED observation for the 7-year yield was 5.13% on October 9, 2026 [4], while a private monthly model forecast an October 2026 average of 5.09% with an estimated error of "0.084 percentage points [5]. Key U.S. economic releases on October 16 include September import/export prices at 8:30 a.m. ET, and September industrial production and capacity utilization at 9:15 a.m. ET [6][7][8].
The contemporaneous market narrative was hawkish and sensitive to volatility. October Fed-hike odds were cited around 16%-20% and near one in four, with a December hike around 75%-80% [9][10]. Other market catalysts for October 16 included a speech by Fed Chair Warsh, appearances by BoE Governor Bailey and BoC Governor Macklem, and euro-area final September inflation and trade data [11][8][12]. Higher-for-longer rates can support bank net-interest income, and the week featured major-bank earnings, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley [12][9]. Conversely, higher Treasury yields pressure bond prices and rate-sensitive borrowers [9], and an unexpectedly hot inflation, import-price, or industrial-production signal could intensify Fed-hike pricing and equity volatility [9].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: October 16, 2026
- Expiration: October 18, 2026
- Closes: October 16, 2026
Sources (12)
- 17Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026? Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
- 2Financial Treasury Yields Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
- 310Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026? Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
- 4Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 7-Year Constant...fred.stlouisfed.org
- 57 Year U.S. Treasury Note Yield Forecastforecasts.org
- 6Calendar of Economic Release Dates (October 2026) | Postscotiabank.com
- 7U.S. Economic Calendar - MarketWatchmarketwatch.com
- 8October 16, 2026 economic calendar | Macro Bullseyemacrobullseye.com
- 9NQ Week Ahead Oct 12–16, 2026: September CPI, TSMC, ASML, Banks · Way of the Traderwayofthetrader.com
- 10Prediction Markets Price October Fed Hike Odds Near One in Four | TokenPosttokenpost.com
- 11Economic Calendartradingeconomics.com
- 12Newsquawk Weekly Economic Calendar - 12th-16th October 2026 | Newsquawknewsquawk.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXUST7A-26OCT09-T5.23: NO (Oct 09, 2026)
- KXUST7A-26OCT09-T5.21: NO (Oct 09, 2026)
- KXUST7A-26OCT09-T5.19: NO (Oct 09, 2026)
- KXUST7A-26OCT09-T5.17: NO (Oct 09, 2026)
- KXUST7A-26OCT09-T5.15: NO (Oct 09, 2026)
