Will Analog Devices (ADI) beat quarterly earnings?
Yes refers to: Yes
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Analog Devices (ADI) will beat quarterly earnings, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Yes outcome is likely, as Q3 2026 guidance significantly exceeds Wall Street estimates.
- Yes outcome appears plausible, given Q1 FY2026 institutional net buying edge.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 94.0% | 95.6% | Analog Devices has a strong track record of beating consensus earnings estimates in the last four quarters, and Q3 2026 forecasts align with management's guidance, despite market participants expressing caution regarding elevated valuation and potential cyclicality. |
Current Context
Analog Devices will report Q3 2026 results with clear analyst forecasts. Analog Devices (ADI) is scheduled to release its third-quarter fiscal year 2026 financial results on Wednesday, August 19, 2026, at 7:00 a.m. Eastern time, followed by a conference call at 10:00 a.m. ET [^][^]. Wall Street analysts forecast Q3 2026 EPS of approximately $3.33, with consensus estimates ranging near $3.30–$3.34 [^][^]. This aligns with management's Q3 FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.30 ± $0.15, issued on May 20, 2026 [^]. Analysts also project revenue of approximately $3.915 billion, consistent with management's guidance of $3.9 billion ± $100 million [^][^][^][^].
ADI possesses a strong earnings beat history, but valuation concerns exist. ADI has outperformed consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters, leading to an overall "Strong Buy" consensus rating from analysts [^][^][^]. While expectations for a beat are high, market participants are expressing caution regarding ADI's elevated valuation, with P/E ratios often cited between 57x and 72x [^][^][^]. Potential cyclicality in demand also factors into this caution, which may pressure the stock price even if earnings are strong [^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market opened at 50.0% and has since trended sharply upward to a current price of 92.0%. The defining price action was a 33.5 percentage point spike on August 6, 2026, when the implied probability jumped from 50.0% to 83.5%. According to available context, this move was not driven by any company-specific news from Analog Devices but rather by positive sentiment across the broader semiconductor industry. Following this initial repricing, the market has continued to drift higher, reaching 92.0% as of August 13.
The price chart must be interpreted with extreme caution due to the complete absence of trading activity. Total volume is zero contracts. This indicates the price movements are likely algorithmic or reflect an automated market maker's feed, not the actions of market participants. The lack of volume means there is no demonstrated market conviction behind the high probability reading. The initial 50.0% price acted as a floor before the spike on August 6. The current high of 92.0% serves as the immediate resistance level.
The chart's surface reading suggests a very strong market expectation that ADI will beat its Q3 2026 non-GAAP EPS target of approximately $3.33. However, without any trading volume, the price does not reflect a true consensus formed by capital-backed opinions. It is simply an information-driven price estimate, and its predictive value is untested by actual market flows.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 August 06, 2026: 33.5pp spike
Price increased from 50.0% to 83.5%
Outcome: Yes
What happened: The 33.5 percentage point spike in the prediction market for Analog Devices (ADI) beating quarterly earnings on August 6, 2026, was primarily driven by positive market sentiment regarding the broader semiconductor industry, rather than an actual earnings report or specific social media activity. ADI's fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings were not scheduled to be released until August 19, 2026 [^], and the official results were not public on August 6 [^]. Instead, ADI's stock movement on August 6, 2026, was attributed to general "semiconductor demand resilience" [^]. Social media appears to have been irrelevant to this price movement.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Analog Devices (ADI) reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $3.33 for the relevant quarter, otherwise it resolves to "No." The primary resolution source is ADI's official earnings documents, with SeekingAlpha as a fallback for non-GAAP EPS, or for GAAP EPS if non-GAAP is unavailable after 96 hours from market close on earnings day. The market resolves to "No" if earnings are not released within 45 calendar days of the estimated August 19, 2026 date, or if no qualifying EPS figure can be determined from the specified sources.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | $0.94 | $0.10 | 94% |
Market Discussion
The discussion from Polymarket indicates a strong expectation that Analog Devices (ADI) will beat its quarterly earnings, with the market currently showing a 92% chance for "Yes." Traders supporting this view frequently highlight ADI's robust historical performance, noting a record of beating EPS estimates in 9 out of the last 10 quarters by an average of 4.2%. No specific arguments or viewpoints supporting a "No" outcome were present in the discussion.
5. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
YesPrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 13, 2026
6. How do Wall Street's consensus estimates for ADI's Q3 2026 earnings compare to the company's official guidance and its performance over the prior four quarters?
| Q3 2026 Adj. EPS Guidance | Official guidance: $3.15–$3.45; Wall Street consensus: ~$2.99 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 Revenue Guidance | Official guidance: $3.80B–$4.00B; Wall Street consensus: $3.6B–$3.91B [^][^][^] |
| Prior Performance Trend | Consistently outperformed analyst estimates for prior four quarters [^][^] |
Analog Devices' Q3 2026 guidance significantly exceeds current Wall Street estimates. For the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, the company has issued adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance ranging from $3.15 to $3.45 and revenue guidance between $3.80 billion and $4.00 billion [^]. These projected figures are notably higher than the current Wall Street consensus estimates, which average approximately $2.99 for EPS and fall within the range of $3.6 billion to $3.91 billion for revenue [^][^][^].
This robust guidance follows a pattern of outperformance in recent quarters. Analog Devices has consistently surpassed analyst expectations regarding its financial results over the prior four quarters [^][^]. Specific instances include Q2 2026, where the company reported an EPS of $3.09, beating estimates of $2.91. Similarly, in Q1 2026, EPS reached $2.46 against an estimated $2.31. Q4 2025 saw EPS of $2.26, exceeding estimates of $2.23, and Q3 2025 recorded an EPS of $2.05, surpassing the $1.95 consensus [^].
7. What specific forward guidance or commentary on key end-markets will analysts and investors scrutinize during Analog Devices' August 19 conference call?
| Industrial Market Revenue Share | Approximately 50% [^] |
|---|---|
| Communications Market Growth | Fastest-growing segment [^] |
| Q3 2026 Revenue Consensus | Approximately $3.9 billion [^][^] |
Analysts will scrutinize Analog Devices' key end-market commentary. During Analog Devices' conference call on August 19, 2026, analysts and investors are anticipated to focus on discussions concerning the Industrial, Communications, and Automotive end-markets [^][^][^][^]. The Industrial market is expected to account for approximately 50% of revenue, driven primarily by data center/AI demand and the ATE/A&D subsegments. The Communications market is projected to be the fastest-growing segment, fueled by AI data center demand. In the Automotive sector, a rebound is anticipated across China, Europe, and Japan, supported by growth in Battery Management Systems (BMS). Conversely, the Consumer market is predicted to remain soft and decline sequentially [^].
Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings outlook appears robust. Discussions during the call will primarily address these end-markets for the third fiscal quarter of 2026; however, explicit forward guidance for subsequent fiscal periods is not detailed [^]. The market consensus for Q3 2026 revenue is approximately $3.9 billion, with an estimated earnings per share (EPS) of $3.32. These forecasts indicate a potential positive variance against the company's prior guidance, which specified an EPS range of $3.15 to $3.45 [^][^].
8. How does Analog Devices' forward P/E ratio leading into its Q3 2026 report compare to that of its primary competitor, Texas Instruments (TXN)?
| Analog Devices (ADI) Forward P/E (Aug 2026) | 25.06 to 27.48 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Texas Instruments (TXN) Forward P/E (Aug 2026) | 35.44 to 52.6 [^][^][^] |
| Analog Devices (ADI) Q3 2026 Earnings Date | Wednesday, August 19, 2026 [^][^] |
Analog Devices holds a lower forward P/E compared to Texas Instruments. As of August 2026, Analog Devices (ADI) is reported to have a forward P/E ratio ranging from approximately 25.06 to 27.48 [^][^][^]. In comparison, Texas Instruments (TXN) exhibited a higher forward P/E ratio during the same period, reported between 35.44 and 52.6 [^][^][^]. This valuation difference suggests that Texas Instruments is currently perceived at a higher forward P/E multiple than Analog Devices [^][^][^].
9. Where can traders find reliable data on semiconductor lead times and supply chain health to gauge ADI's operational performance in Q3 2026?
| Average Semiconductor Lead Times | 26.8 weeks (Late July 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Semiconductor Market Condition | Tightening supply (Mid-2026) [^][^] |
| Analog Devices Q3 2026 Earnings Date | Wednesday, August 19, 2026 [^] |
Traders find reliable semiconductor data in market reports and key metrics. Reliable data on semiconductor lead times and supply chain health can be sourced from various industry reports, including ECIA Industry Pulse reports, Lytica market reports, Accuris Supply Chain Intelligence, and IBS Market Intelligence [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Key metrics crucial for monitoring semiconductor market conditions encompass lead times, book-to-bill ratios, distributor channel inventory measured in weeks-of-inventory, and foundry capacity utilization [^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Mid-2026 market conditions tighten, impacting Analog Devices' performance. These market insights are particularly relevant for assessing Analog Devices' (ADI) operational performance in Q3 2026, with earnings anticipated on Wednesday, August 19, 2026 [^]. The semiconductor market in mid-2026 is characterized by tightening supply conditions [^][^]. As of late July 2026, industry data indicates semiconductor lead times average 26.8 weeks, reflecting a rebound in lead time pressure across most major categories [^][^].
10. What do recent SEC filings, such as 13Fs and Form 4s, reveal about institutional and insider sentiment towards ADI stock before the earnings release?
| Net institutional outflow Q1 2026 | $377.1 million [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| CEO Vincent Roche stock sale | $3.63 million on August 4, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Q3 FY2026 earnings release date | August 19, 2026 [^][^] |
Institutional sentiment for ADI stock showed mixed signals in Q1 FY2026. While some reports indicated a net buying edge and a 15% increase in total reported institutional value, reaching $138 billion [^][^], other analyses identified a net institutional outflow of approximately $377.1 million during the same period [^][^][^].
Insider activity in early August 2026 points to consistent selling. CEO Vincent Roche sold $3.63 million worth of ADI stock on August 4, 2026 [^][^][^], and director Ray Stata also executed sales between August 4 and 5 [^][^]. All these insider transactions were pre-arranged under Rule 10b5-1 trading plans [^][^][^][^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Analog Devices (ADI) is scheduled to release its third quarter fiscal year 2026 financial results on Wednesday, August 19, 2026, at 7:00 a.m. ET, with a conference call to follow at 10:00 a.m. ET [^][^][^]. Wall Street analysts expect ADI to report Q3 2026 EPS of approximately $3.33
–$3.34 and revenue of around $3.91
–$3.92 billion [^][^][^][^]. Management provided Q3 2026 guidance of $3.30 (±$0.15) for adjusted EPS and approximately $3.9 billion (±$100 million) for revenue [^][^][^][^].
ADI has a track record of beating consensus EPS estimates over the last four quarters [^] [^] . Analysts currently view the company as a strong candidate to beat estimates again due to positive earnings revisions and a favorable Earnings ESP [^][^]. Despite strong operational performance, the stock's high valuation (P/E ratio) remains a source of investor caution, as seen in past instances where strong reports were met with share price declines [^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Closes: August 19, 2026
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Analog Devices (ADI) is scheduled to release its third quarter fiscal year 2026 financial results on Wednesday, August 19, 2026, at 7:00 a.m.
- Trigger: ET, with a conference call to follow at 10:00 a.m.
- Trigger: ET [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Wall Street analysts expect ADI to report Q3 2026 EPS of approximately $3.33 –$3.34 and revenue of around $3.91 –$3.92 billion [^] [^] [^] [^] .
14. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
