Short Answer

The NVIDIA H200 hourly price on September 18, 2026, is likely to settle above $4.50, with recent official Ornn data reporting prices of $4.68 and $4.69. The market prices this outcome at 89.0%, while the model estimates 99.9%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's low and stable valuation is anchored by the wide gap between its implied $1.500 strike price and current spot market rates for NVIDIA H200 GPU rentals. On-demand hourly pricing as of mid-September 2026 is reported to be between $3.50 and $10.60. The floor of this range, set by specialized cloud providers, is more than double the price required for this market to resolve to YES.

The market has maintained a tight trading band between 2.0% and 3.0% probability, reflecting a durable consensus that a price collapse of this magnitude is highly unlikely by the mid-September resolution date. The sideways trend indicates no new market information has emerged to challenge the existing supply and demand picture for high-end AI compute.

The market expects NVIDIA H200 prices above $4.50, aligned with typical on-demand cloud services.
Probabilities for prices above $5.00 appear high, given recent OCPI-H200 data.
Prices exceeding $5.50 or $6.00 appear unlikely, based on recent OCPI-H200 data.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome	Market	Model	Why
Above $6.50	2.0%	0.3%	Recent OCPI-H200 data reports settled prices well below the $6.50 threshold.
Above $6.00	2.0%	0.3%	Recent OCPI-H200 data reports settled prices substantially below the $6.00 threshold.
Above $5.50	4.0%	2.7%	Recent OCPI-H200 data reports settled prices significantly below the $5.50 threshold.
Above $4.00	88.0%	99.9%	Recent official Ornn data reports the NVIDIA H200 hourly price settled above $4.00.
Above $5.00	64.0%	49.5%	The most recent OCPI-H200 data reports settled prices below the $5.00 threshold.

Current Context

NVIDIA H200 hourly pricing varies significantly across providers. As of mid-September 2026, the on-demand hourly rental price for an NVIDIA H200 GPU typically ranges from $3.50 to $10.60 per GPU-hour across various cloud providers ^[1]^[2]^[3]. Specialized compute clouds generally offer rates between $3.50 and $4.60 per hour, while major hyperscalers charge between $7.90 and $10.60 per hour ^[1]^[2]^[3]. The Ornn Compute Price Index (OCPI-H200) for the NVIDIA H200 settled at $4.47 per GPU-hour in early September 2026, serving as a market benchmark for transacted rental prices in the neocloud sector ^[4]^[5]. No unified, publicly traded hourly market price for NVIDIA H200 GPU instances exists; pricing is determined by private, negotiated contracts between infrastructure providers and enterprise customers, often involving multi-year commitments and bundled service agreements ^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9]^[10]. Contractual pricing models frequently utilize opaque, non-public rates, indicative figures, or variable usage fees based on custom infrastructure requirements, such as managed bare-metal GPU clusters, rather than standardized market-wide hourly spot rates ^[6]^[8]^[9]^[10].

AI infrastructure market focus shifts beyond raw GPU procurement. In September 2026, the AI infrastructure market moved its focus from raw GPU procurement to system-level bottlenecks ^[11]^[12]^[13]. These include data center power availability, energization timelines, cluster efficiency, and the token-per-watt performance of models ^[11]^[12]^[13]. Data center capital expenditures showed significant growth in Q2 2026, with forecasts predicting continued expansion through 2027 ^[11]. However, the industry increasingly emphasizes the transition from massive infrastructure investment to sustained model monetization and profitability ^[14]^[11]^[15].

Sources (15)

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability

Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above $5.00

📉 September 17, 2026: 23.0pp drop

Price decreased from 87.0% to 64.0%

What happened: Based on the provided research, there is no direct evidence of specific social media activity, such as posts from key figures or viral narratives, explicitly causing the 23.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market on September 17, 2026. The movement appears to be primarily driven by a reassessment of market conditions by traders, aligning with the broader trend of NVIDIA H200 hourly rental prices stabilizing below $5.00 (typically $4.30-$4.60) ^[1]^[2]^[3]. This decline is largely attributed to the introduction of newer Blackwell (B200/GB200) architectures, which has led to a supply-side reset and a significant reduction in H200 scarcity and pricing power ^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7]. Therefore, social media was likely irrelevant to this specific prediction market price movement.

📈 September 16, 2026: 74.0pp spike

Price increased from 25.0% to 99.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market spike was a traditional news announcement on September 16, 2026, from Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) ^[8]. The report indicated a 5.8% increase in the procurement cost for NVIDIA H200 HGX full systems in the South China market, rising to 5.66 million yuan per unit due to tight supply ^[8]. This increased underlying hardware cost directly signaled that hourly compute prices would likely exceed $5.00, given that public on-demand prices already range significantly ^[8]^[2]^[3]. The report coincided with the market movement. Social media activity was not a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or noted as relevant in the provided research.

📉 September 13, 2026: 16.0pp drop

Price decreased from 41.0% to 25.0%

What happened:

The premise of a 16.0 percentage point drop in the "NVIDIA H200 · Hourly price" prediction market on September 13, 2026, cannot be supported by the provided web research. The research explicitly states that "The mention of a 16.0pp (percentage point) drop refers to historical financial data from unrelated telecommunications company filings... not a specific market event for NVIDIA H200 pricing in September 2026" ^[9].

Therefore, there is no discernible primary driver from social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors for this particular movement in the specified market and date, as the event itself is not applicable to the NVIDIA H200 market ^[9]. Social media activity is irrelevant in this context.

Outcome: Above $6.00

📉 September 14, 2026: 60.0pp drop

Price decreased from 75.0% to 15.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 60.0 percentage point drop appears to be NVIDIA's acquisition of Hugging Face, announced on September 2, 2026 ^[10]. This major corporate announcement, preceding the market movement by twelve days, likely led to a re-evaluation of future NVIDIA H200 hourly pricing expectations. Investors may have anticipated that the acquisition would lead NVIDIA to stabilize or control GPU rental rates, potentially making sustained prices above $6.00 less probable, especially given current market indices ranging $4.27–$4.63 per GPU-hour ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[11]^[12]. Based on the available information, social media activity was not a primary driver.

📈 September 12, 2026: 72.0pp spike

Price increased from 3.0% to 75.0%

What happened: The 72.0 percentage point spike in the "NVIDIA H200 · Hourly price on Sep 18" prediction market on September 12, 2026, cannot be attributed to a specific primary driver based on the available information. Available data indicates that such spikes are common statistical movements in various speculative prediction markets and not a specific, validated driver for the H200 hourly compute price on that date ^[13]. No specific social media activity or traditional news announcements coinciding with or leading this particular price movement on September 12, 2026, were identified. While NVIDIA announced the acquisition of Hugging Face on September 2, 2026, this event occurred too early and is not directly tied to immediate H200 hourly rental price fluctuations to explain a spike on September 12 ^[10]. Therefore, social media was not a primary driver or contributing accelerant for this movement.

Sources (13)

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market concerns the hourly price of an NVIDIA H200 on September 18 (Week 38). For contracts like "Above $5.50," a YES resolution occurs if the hourly price on that day is greater than $5.50, and a NO resolution occurs if it is less than or equal to $5.50. The market's maximum payout date is September 18, 2026, with no other special settlement conditions explicitly detailed in the provided content.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket	Yes (price)	No (price)	Last trade probability
Above $1.50	$1.00	$0.01	99%
Above $2.00	$1.00	$0.01	99%
Above $2.50	$1.00	$0.01	99%
Above $3.00	$1.00	$0.02	98%
Above $3.50	$1.00	$0.05	95%
Above $4.50	$0.99	$0.15	89%
Above $4.00	$1.00	$0.05	88%
Above $5.00	$0.91	$0.39	64%
Above $5.50	$0.05	$0.96	4%
Above $6.00	$0.05	$0.98	2%
Above $6.50	$0.02	$1.00	2%

Market Discussion

As of mid-September 2026, the median NVIDIA H200 rental price sits in the $4.25–$4.65 per GPU-hour range, though public on-demand list prices vary significantly from approximately $4.00 at specialist providers to over $10.00/hr at hyperscalers ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]. Prediction markets in early September 2026 show active betting on whether the monthly average H200 price will exceed $4.50, with probability estimated near 43%, reflecting a market tug-of-war where strong demand for high-memory inference is met by increasing H200 supply and the ramp-up of Blackwell B200 availability ^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9]^[10]^[11]^[7]^[12].

Sources (12)

5. Trust Index

“Above $6.00” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.

Integrity risk· Thin-volume moves

How it adds up

Integrity80% of score78Good

Market integrity is low (67), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score57Caution

Trust score74Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile

Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply

6. What is the relative price-performance of the NVIDIA H200 versus the H100 for large language model (LLM) inference tasks as of H2 2026?

H200 Inference Speed vs H100	Up to 2X for LLMs (H2 2026) ^[1]
H200 Hourly Rental Price	$4.00 - $4.50/hour (mid-September 2026) ^[2]
H100 SXM Hourly Rental Price	~$2.69 - $3.19/hour (mid-September 2026) ^[2]

The NVIDIA H200 offers significant performance advantages for LLM inference. As of H2 2026, the H200 GPU delivers up to twice the inference speed of the H100 for large language models ^[1]. This superior capability is attributed to its advanced memory architecture, which features 141GB of HBM3e memory and a bandwidth of 4.8 TB/s. These specifications represent nearly double the memory capacity and 1.4 times the bandwidth when compared to the H100 ^[1].

H200 rental prices are notably higher than its predecessor. Data from mid-September 2026 shows that the hourly rental cost for an H200 GPU ranges from approximately $4.00 to $4.50 ^[2]. In contrast, the H100 SXM typically commanded rates between $2.69 and $3.19 per hour during the same period ^[2]. Prediction markets as of September 18, 2026, indicate an 86% confidence that the H200's hourly rental price will exceed $4.00, with a much lower probability, around 7-8%, of the price surpassing $6.00 per hour ^[3]^[4].

Sources (4)

7. What is the methodology behind the Ornn Compute Price Index (OCPI-H200) and how does it reflect actual transacted prices in Q3 2026?

OCPI-H200 Price (Sep 12, 2026)	$4.69 (September 12, 2026) ^[1]^[2]
OCPI-H200 Price (Sep 15, 2026)	$4.68 (September 15, 2026) ^[1]^[2]
OCPI-H200 Calculation Window	24-hour rolling window ending 4:00 PM ET ^[3]^[4]

The Ornn Compute Price Index (OCPI-H200) tracks actual transacted GPU rental prices. This index monitors the volume-weighted, winsorized mean of actual transacted rental prices for NVIDIA H200 GPUs obtained from a diverse group of independent neocloud operators, specifically excluding indicative quotes or list prices ^[3]^[4]. The OCPI-H200 calculates its daily reference print using a 24-hour rolling window that concludes at 4:00 PM ET, employing symmetric percentile bounds to winsorize transaction prices and mitigate outliers ^[3]^[4]. The index is designed to serve as a settlement benchmark for compute futures, facilitating institutional hedging by tracking actual market clearing prices ^[5]^[6].

The index accurately reflected Q3 2026 prices, providing specific benchmarks. In Q3 2026, the OCPI-H200 accurately reflected actual transacted prices within the neocloud market ^[1]^[2]. Specific settled prices recorded in Q3 2026 included $4.69 on September 12, 2026, and $4.68 on September 15, 2026 ^[1]^[2]. It is important to note that official computer hardware pricing metrics from sources such as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Nasdaq do not include an 'OCPI-H200' series ^[7]^[8]^[9].

Sources (9)

8. How might data center power constraints and energization timelines impact the available supply and pricing of H200 instances leading into Q4 2026?

AI Workload Power Demand	Up to 1 GW per facility ^[1]^[2]^[3]
H200 Price Probability (> $4.00/hr)	86% probability ^[4]^[5]
H200 Price Probability (> $5.00/hr)	20% probability ^[6]^[5]

By 2026, data center power limitations now constrain GPU supply more than chip availability. The primary impediment to GPU compute capacity, including NVIDIA H200 instances, has shifted from the availability of chips to limitations in data center power and grid infrastructure ^[1]^[2]^[3]. The substantial power demands of AI workloads, reaching up to 1 GW per facility, are causing significant delays in energization for new data centers ^[1]^[2]^[3]. This power bottleneck creates a localized scarcity, permitting only facilities with pre-existing power agreements or accelerated grid connections to deploy new clusters ^[1]^[3].

Power constraints significantly elevate H200 instance pricing due to scarcity. This infrastructure constraint directly influences the available supply and pricing of H200 instances, compelling cloud pricing to reflect the premium associated with constrained infrastructure rather than merely hardware costs ^[1]^[3]. Prediction markets, as of September 17, 2026, indicate an 86% probability that the hourly rental price for NVIDIA H200 compute will surpass $4.00, driven by high demand relative to the limited power-ready supply ^[4]^[5]. More conservative probabilities exist for higher price points, with a 20% chance of exceeding $5.00 per hour and approximately a 7% chance of exceeding $6.00 per hour by the September 18 resolution date ^[6]^[5].

Sources (6)

9. What public data sources are available to track spot or short-term contract pricing for NVIDIA H200 instances in September 2026?

Kalshi Market Price Dashboard	Ornn ^[1]
Public Rental Price Tracking	Aggregated industry platforms ^[2]
Individual Provider Pricing Example	Jarvis Labs published NVIDIA H200 GPU prices in August 2026 ^[3]

Public data sources track NVIDIA H200 spot or short-term contract pricing. The official data dashboard for resolving the market price of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour for the Kalshi prediction market is known as "Ornn" ^[1]. In addition to this specific market resolution tool, general public tracking for spot or short-term NVIDIA H200 rental prices is also available through various aggregated industry platforms ^[2].

Aggregated platforms and individual providers offer detailed pricing information. These aggregated platforms, which include services like GetDeploying.com, Vast.ai, and Frenzy Capital's GPU price tracker, compile rates from multiple cloud GPU providers ^[2]^[4]. Furthermore, individual cloud GPU providers frequently publish their own on-demand and spot/interruptible hourly pricing directly on their websites. An example of this includes Jarvis Labs, which published NVIDIA H200 GPU prices in August 2026 ^[3].

Sources (4)

10. How do H200 hourly rental prices on major hyperscalers compare to those on specialized compute clouds in September 2026?

Hyperscaler H200 Hourly Rate	$4.50 to $13.78 per GPU ^[1]^[2]
Low-Cost Provider H200 Hourly Rate	$1.39 to $3.59 per hour ^[1]^[3]^[4]^[5]
Ornn Compute Price Index H200	$4.59 per hour (as of early September 2026) ^[6]

H200 hourly rental prices vary widely across compute providers. Major hyperscalers and premium specialized providers typically listed NVIDIA H200 GPU rental rates between $4.50 and $13.78 per hour in September 2026 ^[1]^[2]. For instance, CoreWeave quoted $6.31 per hour, while Azure's ND96isr H200 v5 was priced at $13.78 per hour ^[1]^[2]. In contrast, lower-cost or marketplace-based specialized compute clouds offered H200 instances for as low as $1.39 to $3.59 per hour, demonstrating a higher price variance compared to established hyperscalers ^[1]^[3]^[4]^[5]. The Ornn Compute Price Index (OCPI) reported a settled benchmark price for an NVIDIA H200 GPU at $4.59 per hour as of early September 2026 ^[6].

Prediction markets anticipate H200 prices will remain above $4.00. Forecasts from Kalshi, as of mid-September 2026, indicated a strong probability, over 90%, that the H200 hourly rental price would exceed $4.00 by September 18, 2026 ^[7]^[8]^[9]^[10]. However, confidence was considerably lower, approximately 38%, that the price would surpass $5.50 by the same date ^[7]^[8]^[9]^[10].

Sources (10)

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The NVIDIA H200 market faces tight supply and increasing rental prices. On-demand cloud services typically charge between $3.50 and $4.60 per GPU-hour, while hyperscalers often range from $7.90 to $10.85 per GPU-hour when normalized from node pricing ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. CEO Jensen Huang noted that expiring legacy contracts are being replaced by significantly higher market-rate agreements, supporting the company's long-term revenue visibility ^[1]^[5]. Bullish catalysts for NVIDIA in late 2026 include the mass production and deployment of the Vera Rubin platform ^[6]^[7]. Accelerating AI infrastructure capex, projected at $1.3 trillion for 2027 among the top 5 hyperscalers, also contributes to a self-reinforcing "flywheel" where rising GPU rental returns drive further infrastructure expansion ^[6]^[7]^[5]. Newer generation NVIDIA B200 GPU clusters, deployed in May 2026, commanded signed contract pricing of $2.90 per GPU-hour, 32% above the company's internal planning rate of $2.20 per GPU-hour ^[8]^[9].

Bearish risks for NVIDIA include potential hyperscaler capex pauses ^[10]. Gross margin compression due to high HBM memory costs is a concern, with a projected Q4 trough of 71-72% ^[10]^[6]^[7]. Potential U.S. export control expansions could impact international compute revenue ^[10]^[6]^[7]. No standardized, publicly available hourly market price for NVIDIA H200 compute existed on September 18, 2026. Rental costs are typically determined by long-term, enterprise-grade, bare-metal service agreements with variable pricing models ^[8]^[9]. GPU compute pricing relies on multi-year commitments, take-or-pay structures, or customized contract terms, rather than dynamic public spot-market pricing, making specific hourly price points for a single date like September 18, 2026, unavailable ^[11]^[8]^[12].

Key Dates & Catalysts

Strike Date: September 18, 2026
Expiration: September 25, 2026
Closes: September 18, 2026

Sources (12)

12. Decision-Flipping Events

Trigger: The NVIDIA H200 market faces tight supply and increasing rental prices.
Trigger: On-demand cloud services typically charge between $3.50 and $4.60 per GPU-hour, while hyperscalers often range from $7.90 to $10.85 per GPU-hour when normalized from node pricing ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4].
Trigger: CEO Jensen Huang noted that expiring legacy contracts are being replaced by significantly higher market-rate agreements, supporting the company's long-term revenue visibility ^[1]^[5].
Trigger: Bullish catalysts for NVIDIA in late 2026 include the mass production and deployment of the Vera Rubin platform ^[6]^[7].

Sources (7)

13. Keep Exploring

More Compute markets See more compute setups in the same theme. Browse all Financials markets Keep exploring adjacent financials markets. Track this in the app Open the live app flow and keep following this market in real time.

14. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 13 resolved YES, 7 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

KXH200WS-26SEP11-6.500: NO (Sep 11, 2026)
KXH200WS-26SEP11-6.000: NO (Sep 11, 2026)
KXH200WS-26SEP11-5.500: NO (Sep 11, 2026)
KXH200WS-26SEP11-5.000: YES (Sep 11, 2026)
KXH200WS-26SEP11-4.500: YES (Sep 11, 2026)

NVIDIA H200 · Hourly price on Sep 18 (Week 38)

Short Answer

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

3. Significant Price Movements

Outcome: Above $5.00

📉 September 17, 2026: 23.0pp drop

📈 September 16, 2026: 74.0pp spike

📉 September 13, 2026: 16.0pp drop

Outcome: Above $6.00

📉 September 14, 2026: 60.0pp drop

📈 September 12, 2026: 72.0pp spike

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

5. Trust Index

6. What is the relative price-performance of the NVIDIA H200 versus the H100 for large language model (LLM) inference tasks as of H2 2026?

7. What is the methodology behind the Ornn Compute Price Index (OCPI-H200) and how does it reflect actual transacted prices in Q3 2026?

8. How might data center power constraints and energization timelines impact the available supply and pricing of H200 instances leading into Q4 2026?

9. What public data sources are available to track spot or short-term contract pricing for NVIDIA H200 instances in September 2026?

10. How do H200 hourly rental prices on major hyperscalers compare to those on specialized compute clouds in September 2026?

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

12. Decision-Flipping Events

14. Historical Resolutions

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company

Short Answer

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome: Above $5.00

📉 September 17, 2026: 23.0pp drop

📈 September 16, 2026: 74.0pp spike

📉 September 13, 2026: 16.0pp drop

Outcome: Above $6.00

📉 September 14, 2026: 60.0pp drop

📈 September 12, 2026: 72.0pp spike

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

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Public Markets

Developers

Company