New Jersey gas prices this week
Short Answer
New Jersey gas prices are likely to average above $4.36 this week, driven by current prices near $4.42 and an ongoing upward trend from global geopolitical tensions and high crude oil prices; the market prices this outcome at 99.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The probability of New Jersey gas prices exceeding $4.30 has collapsed, moving contrary to reported fundamentals. Reports from mid-September place the average price of regular gasoline at approximately $4.42 per gallon, above the market's resolution threshold. This price level reflects a post-Labor Day increase from an August average of $4.275 in the broader New York-Newark-Jersey City region.
The provided information does not contain a catalyst that would explain the market's sharp decline from a 69% to a 17% probability. The move suggests traders are pricing in a significant reversal of the current upward price trend before the September 21 resolution, a view not supported by the available news. Total volume of 1,778 contracts indicates limited market participation.
- Since last update (~2d): Model-led conviction for prices Above 4.5600 dropped -64.8pp, leading to an edge flip.
- Model-led shifts for prices Above 4.5800 plunged -71.4pp, compressing the edge.
- Market-led movement for prices Above 4.4400 decreased -45.0pp, widening the edge.
- Overall, headline model probability rose +1.1pp, increasing our edge to 3.1pp.
- Prices appear certain to remain above $4.36, with the current average at $4.42.
- An upward trend suggests prices will likely exceed $4.42, driven by geopolitical tensions.
- Higher thresholds are tempered by recent drops and retreated crude oil prices.
Current Context
New Jersey gasoline prices show an upward trend in September. The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in New Jersey was approximately $4.42 as of mid-September 2026, reflecting an increase post-Labor Day [1][2]. This follows an average of $4.275 per gallon in August 2026 for the New York-Newark-Jersey City region [3][4]. Consumer surveys conducted in August 2026 indicated continued expectations of gasoline price growth in September [5].
Global oil markets experienced high volatility throughout September 2026, driven by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [6][7][8]. Attacks on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure, including the East-West pipeline, and Houthi activity in the Red Sea have pressured crude oil prices [6][7][8]. As of September 16, 2026, crude oil prices exceeded $105 per barrel [9]. By September 18, 2026, Brent and WTI crude oil prices had retreated from recent four-month highs, trading around $100–$104 per barrel, as market concerns eased due to Saudi Arabia’s efforts to restore pipeline capacity and utilize alternative export routes [6][7][8]. Crude oil has entered overbought territory according to market indicators [9]. Analysts, including those at J.P. Morgan, report high uncertainty in oil market baselines, with risks of further price increases if Middle East supply disruptions persist and global inventories decline [10][11][12].
Refined product tightness and inflation weigh on consumer budgets. Refined product markets, particularly diesel, have faced acute tightness [11][12]. U.S. diesel prices recently surpassed $6 per gallon for the first time, as markets prepare for winter demand amid persistent supply chain constraints [11][12]. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring energy-driven inflation; consumer inflation expectations for gasoline rose 1.7 percentage points to 4.6% in the August 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations [9][5]. Businesses report increased nonlabor input costs, and higher fuel prices strain household budgets [9][13][14].
Sources (14)
- 1News 12 | New Jersey | Gas Prices Remain High Across New Jerseynewjersey.news12.com
- 2New Jersey Gas Prices - 4.422/gal | Live Updatesoilpriceapi.com
- 3Conventional Gasoline Prices: New York Harbor, Regular (DGASNYH) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 4Average Price: Gasoline, All Types (Cost per Gallon/3.785 Liters) in New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA (CBSA) | ALFRED | St. Louis Fedalfred.stlouisfed.org
- 5Medium-Term Inflation Expectations Tick Down; Unemployment Expectations Deteriorate - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORKnewyorkfed.org
- 6Oil prices fall 1% on hopes of limited supply disruptions | Reutersreuters.com
- 7Oil Falls as Worries Over Middle East Supply Disruptions Ease - WSJwsj.com
- 8Oil prices slide on Saudi export options and hopes for extra suppliesaa.com.tr
- 9Crude Oil Leads Markets Higher - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 10Oil Market Report - September 2026 – Analysis - IEAiea.org
- 11JP Morgan says it has no clear oil market endgame as Iran conflict drags on | Reutersreuters.com
- 12Global Economic Outlook: September 2026 | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
- 13How Energy Market Swings Are Reshaping Monetary Policy - OpenMarketscmegroup.com
- 14Fourth District Beige Book: September 2026clevelandfed.org
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 4.5200
📉 September 18, 2026: 81.0pp drop
Price decreased from 84.0% to 3.0%
What happened: The provided web research does not contain information to identify the primary driver of the 81.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market "New Jersey gas prices this week Above 4.5200" by September 18, 2026. Traditional news reports from mid-September 2026 indicated an upward trend for New Jersey gasoline prices, with averages between $4.21 and $4.42 per gallon due to Middle East energy risks [1][2][3][4][5], which contradicts an expectation for prices to significantly drop below the $4.52 threshold. No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives, nor traditional news announcements or market structure factors, were found in the provided sources that would explain this specific market movement. Based on the available data, social media activity appears irrelevant as a driver.
📉 September 14, 2026: 46.0pp drop
Price decreased from 51.0% to 5.0%
What happened: The provided research does not support a 46.0 percentage point drop in the "New Jersey gas prices this week: Above 4.5200" prediction market on September 14, 2026. Instead, reports from September 15, 2026, indicate New Jersey gas prices were rising, reaching $4.42, a 15-cent increase from the previous week [6]. Furthermore, the research explicitly states "there is no evidence of a 46-cent drop or a catalyst specifically cited as a 46-cent price drop in September 2026" [7][8]. Therefore, no social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors could be identified as a primary driver for the described price movement, as the premise itself is unsubstantiated by the available information. Social media appears irrelevant given the lack of evidence for the market event.
Outcome: Above 4.5800
📉 September 17, 2026: 64.0pp drop
Price decreased from 70.0% to 6.0%
What happened: The web research does not identify a primary driver for the reported 64.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market "New Jersey gas prices this week" for the outcome "Above 4.5800" on September 17, 2026. Available information indicates New Jersey gas prices were experiencing an upward trend in mid-September 2026, generally ranging from $4.21 to $4.42 per gallon, with U.S. national averages also climbing [6][1][3][9]. Although Brent crude saw a 4% decline on September 17, 2026, its impact on U.S. pump prices was expected to be minimal [10][11]. There is no evidence of social media activity from key figures or viral narratives, nor traditional news reports, that would explain such a significant drop in the probability of New Jersey gas prices exceeding $4.58. Social media activity was irrelevant to this specific price movement based on the provided research.
📈 September 15, 2026: 70.0pp spike
Price increased from 0.0% to 70.0%
What happened: The provided web research does not identify a primary driver, particularly social media activity, for the reported 70.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market "New Jersey gas prices this week: Above 4.5800" on September 15, 2026. On that date, actual regular gas prices in New Jersey were $4.42-$4.43, below the $4.58 threshold, and had increased by approximately 15 cents over the preceding week [6][12][13]. While geopolitical tensions were causing an overall upward trend [12][13], no specific social media posts, key executive statements, or sudden news announcements were found to explain such a rapid market probability shift. Therefore, social media appears to be irrelevant to this described market spike.
Outcome: Above 4.5400
📈 September 16, 2026: 26.0pp spike
Price increased from 0.0% to 26.0%
What happened: The prediction market's 26.0 percentage point spike for New Jersey gas prices above $4.5400 on September 16, 2026, appears to have been driven primarily by traditional news regarding escalating geopolitical instability and energy analyst warnings. News reports highlighted conflict in Iran affecting the Strait of Hormuz and a drone strike that closed Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline, while analysts from GasBuddy and Gulf Oil expected further near-term price increases [14][15][9]. Although New Jersey's average gas price reached $4.42 in mid-September, official data does not substantiate a 26.0pp spike or prices above $4.54 for that specific date [6][16]. Social media was therefore likely mostly noise, as no specific posts from influential figures directly driving this market movement were identified.
Sources (16)
- 1How much does a gallon of gas cost? New Jersey gas prices risemycentraljersey.com
- 2New Jersey Gas Prices - 4.422/gal | Live Updatesoilpriceapi.com
- 3NJ Gas Prices Surge Past $4 a Gallon — Here’s What Commuters Are Spendingshorenewsnetwork.com
- 4New Jersey Gas Prices Today — Regular $4.32/gal · Diesel $5.90fuelwide.com
- 5How gas prices have changed in New Jersey in the last week - Stacker Storiesstacker.com
- 6News 12 | New Jersey | Gas Prices Remain High Across New Jerseynewjersey.news12.com
- 7Will average <strong>gas prices</strong> be above $4.5200? | Paritypredictparity.com
- 8US gas prices this week - Kalshi KXAAAGASW-26SEP21 Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 9No relief in sight for U.S. drivers as gas and diesel prices surge - CBS Newscbsnews.com
- 10AAA Fuel Pricesgasprices.aaa.com
- 11Oil Falls 4.02%, but Pump Prices May Barely Move - NILE1nile1.com
- 12Gas prices still rising in NJ as diesel hits all-time highcourierpostonline.com
- 13How high are South Jersey gas prices now?pressofatlanticcity.com
- 14NJ Gas Prices Are Climbing: Here's Why and How Highthedigestonline.com
- 15What does the closure of Saudi-Arabia's East-West pipeline mean for gas prices? - ABC Newsabcnews.com
- 16Consumer Price Index, New York-Newark-Jersey City — August 2026: Northeast Information Office: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market resolves based on New Jersey gas prices for the current week. A "YES" resolution occurs if the weekly gas price is above the specified threshold (e.g., $4.4200), while a "NO" resolution occurs if it is at or below that threshold. The market began on Sunday, September 20, 10:00 PM EDT, but the specific source or methodology for determining the weekly gas price for settlement is not provided.
Market Discussion
As of mid-September 2026, New Jersey gas prices have been rising, with the state average for regular gasoline reaching approximately $4.39–$4.42 per gallon [1][2][3]. This trend is driven by geopolitical tensions in Iran and supply chain disruptions [1][2][3], which are contributing to high anxiety and volatility in global energy markets [4][5][6][7][8]. Crude oil prices, reflecting strong upside momentum, rose over 4.3% to exceed $105 per barrel as of September 16, 2026 [9].
Sources (9)
- 1News 12 | New Jersey | Gas Prices Remain High Across New Jerseynewjersey.news12.com
- 2Surge in Gas Prices Drives Inflation Upward - NJBIAnjbia.org
- 3How much does a gallon of gas cost? New Jersey gas prices risemycentraljersey.com
- 4TUS Grouptus.group
- 5European Power Market Briefnuvve.com
- 6Article: Market Outlook – September 2026 - Vattenfallenergysales.vattenfall.de
- 7The Smarta Weekly Market Update – 14th September 2026 - Energy Live Newsenergylivenews.com
- 8TUS Grouptus.group
- 9Crude Oil Leads Markets Higher - CME Groupcmegroup.com
5. Trust Index
“Above 4.5,200” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.
Integrity risk· Thin-volume moves
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score78Good
Market integrity is low (67), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score50Caution
Trust score72Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What is the current NOAA forecast for hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico, and what is the historical price impact of major storms on East Coast fuel supply chains?
| Major Hurricane Threats (Gulf of Mexico) | None explicitly active as of September 2, 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| Gulf of Mexico Weather Forecast | Weak high pressure, moderate/weaker winds, slight/moderate seas for coming days (as of Sep 2, 2026) [1] |
| Historical Impact of Major Gulf Storms | Disrupted fuel supply chains, leading to gasoline price spikes [2] |
Historically, major storms in the Gulf of Mexico significantly disrupt fuel supply chains, causing price spikes [2]. These events damage offshore oil platforms and coastal refineries, which can lead to regional or even national gasoline price increases due to reduced production and logistics interruptions [2].
7. How does post-Labor Day 2026 gasoline demand, measured by the EIA and GasBuddy, compare to seasonal expectations and the prior year's consumption levels?
| Post-Labor Day 2026 Gasoline Demand Data | Not explicitly detailed (EIA/GasBuddy) [1] |
|---|---|
| NJ Gas Price Probability (>$4.32/gal) | 99% for week ending Sep 21, 2026 [2] |
| EIA Weekly Updates | Standardized updates on inventories and consumption trends [1] |
Specific post-Labor Day 2026 demand comparisons are currently unavailable. Direct comparisons of post-Labor Day 2026 gasoline demand, as measured by the EIA and GasBuddy, against seasonal expectations and the prior year's consumption levels are not explicitly detailed in the provided search results [1]. Therefore, a direct comparison based on this specific metric cannot be made from the available information.
Broader energy context indicates shifting consumption with specific price predictions. The broader energy context for Q3 2026 suggests a landscape of evolving consumption patterns [1]. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) continues to offer general insight into the market through standardized weekly updates on inventories and consumption trends [1]. Separately, prediction markets on Kalshi, as of September 16, 2026, indicate a high probability for New Jersey gas prices. Specifically, there is a 99% probability that the average regular gas prices for the week ending September 21, 2026, will exceed $4.3200 per gallon in New Jersey [2].
8. How has the price spread between New Jersey gasoline, the U.S. national average, and Brent crude evolved throughout September 2026?
| Probability NJ gas exceeds $4.32/gallon | 99% (As of September 16, 2026) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Prediction market resolution date | September 21, 2026 [1][2] |
| Prediction market data source | AAA average regular gas price data for New Jersey [1][2] |
Kalshi markets predict high New Jersey gasoline prices this week. As of September 16, 2026, prediction markets on Kalshi indicate a 99% probability that New Jersey regular gasoline prices will exceed $4.32 per gallon by the resolution date of September 21, 2026 [1][2]. This specific Kalshi prediction market, titled "New Jersey gas prices this week," is based on AAA average regular gas price data for New Jersey, featuring various binary outcome thresholds between $4.30 and $4.40 per gallon [1][2].
Information on price spread evolution is currently unavailable for September 2026. The available research does not contain sufficient information to describe the evolution of the price spread between New Jersey gasoline, the U.S. national average, and Brent crude throughout September 2026.
9. Which data points in the upcoming EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending September 18, 2026, are most critical for forecasting PADD 1B prices?
| Critical PADD 1B forecasting data | PADD 1 total motor gasoline inventories, PADD 1 gasoline imports, PADD 3 to PADD 1 inter-district movements [1] |
|---|---|
| Primary US petroleum market data source | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) [1] |
| New Jersey prediction market resolution date | September 21, 2026 [2] |
PADD 1B price forecasting critically depends on specific supply-side data. The most critical metrics from the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report include PADD 1 total motor gasoline inventories, PADD 1 gasoline imports, and inter-district movements from PADD 3 to PADD 1 [1]. These data points are essential for understanding the supply dynamics in PADD 1B, which encompasses New Jersey. The East Coast (PADD 1), particularly its Central Atlantic sub-district (PADD 1B), exhibits a strong dependency on both imports and shipments originating from the Gulf Coast (PADD 3) [1].
The EIA WPSR is essential for PADD 1B price analysis. This report serves as the primary source for comprehensive US petroleum market data, furnishing regional metrics crucial for PADD price analysis [1]. Supply-side disruptions, such as refinery maintenance or infrastructure bottlenecks in the Gulf Coast, are significantly amplified in PADD 1B due to its reliance on external supply. As a result, inventory levels within PADD 1B offer the most immediate and critical signal for potential price volatility [1].
New Jersey gas price predictions use specific market benchmarks. In the context of prediction markets, New Jersey gas prices are benchmarked using AAA data [2]. The resolution of these markets often occurs on specific dates, such as September 21, 2026, with outcomes frequently contingent on reaching predefined price thresholds [2].
10. How might new developments in the Red Sea conflict or attacks on Saudi Arabian infrastructure impact Brent and WTI crude oil futures before the end of September 2026?
| Red Sea Conflict Attacks (September 2026) | No specific new developments detailed [1] |
|---|---|
| Prediction Market Focus (September 2026) | Traffic metrics for Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Strait [2] |
| NJ Gas Price Probability (Sept 21, 2026) | 99% probability of exceeding $4.3200 (as of Sept 16, 2026) [3] |
Current major economic reports do not yet detail specific new developments regarding Red Sea conflict attacks on Saudi infrastructure in September 2026 that would directly impact Brent and WTI crude oil futures. However, any escalation in these regions typically exerts upward pressure on Brent and WTI crude oil futures. This is driven by concerns over potential supply chain disruptions and broader regional volatility [1].
Prediction market activity for September 2026 reflects persistent concerns about geopolitical stability affecting energy logistics. Activity has concentrated on traffic metrics for key maritime chokepoints, including the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait [2].
Separately, as of September 16, 2026, prediction markets on Kalshi estimate a 99% probability that regular gas prices in New Jersey will exceed $4.3200 by September 21, 2026 [3].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
New Jersey gasoline prices averaged $4.42 per gallon as of mid-September 2026, a trend stemming from regional supply dynamics and geopolitical tensions [1][2][3]. The New York-Newark-Jersey City metropolitan area recorded an average of $4.125 per gallon for regular unleaded gasoline in August 2026 [4]. Conventional regular gasoline spot prices at New York Harbor were $3.289 per gallon on September 9, 2026 [5]. Global oil markets remain volatile due to the US-Iran conflict, with Brent crude near $106/bbl [6][7]. Crude oil prices experienced significant upward momentum, rising over 4.3% in a single day to exceed $105 per barrel on September 16, 2026, entering overbought territory [8]. Bullish factors include structurally weaker U.S. dollar trends, potential supply shortfalls due to declining production, and electricity demand from AI data centers [9]. Damaged Saudi infrastructure and constrained transit through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb also act as bullish catalysts [6][10][11][12]. Bearish factors include weaker global demand, recession risks, and uncertainty regarding geopolitical risk premiums [6][9].
Market sentiment indicates a potential 25 basis point FOMC rate hike, with traders focusing on future guidance for the remainder of 2026 [8]. Key energy sector dates for late September 2026 include Bloom Energy's S&P 500 inclusion on September 21 [13], weekly EIA petroleum/gas inventory reports [13][14], the Intelligent Asset Management in Energy Summit from September 22-24 [13], and the Gas to Grid Infrastructure Summit from September 29-30 [13].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: September 21, 2026
- Expiration: September 28, 2026
- Closes: September 21, 2026
Sources (14)
- 1News 12 | New Jersey | Gas Prices Remain High Across New Jerseynewjersey.news12.com
- 2New Jersey Gas Prices - 4.422/gal | Live Updatesoilpriceapi.com
- 3How much does a gallon of gas cost? New Jersey gas prices risemycentraljersey.com
- 4Average Price: Gasoline, Unleaded Regular (Cost per Gallon/3.785 Liters) in New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA (CBSA) (APUS12A74714) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 5Conventional Gasoline Prices: New York Harbor, Regular (DGASNYH) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 6Oil Market Report - September 2026 – Analysis - IEAiea.org
- 7JP Morgan says it has no clear oil market endgame as Iran conflict drags on | Reutersreuters.com
- 8Crude Oil Leads Markets Higher - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 9Five Things To Watch In Energy Markets in 2026 - OpenMarketscmegroup.com
- 10Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI and Brent Slide as Saudi Rerouting Eases Supply Risk | FXEmpirefxempire.com
- 11Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Saudi Rerouting Eases Supply Risk as Hormuz Traffic Slumps | FXEmpirefxempire.com
- 12The Strait Of Hormuz And What Comes Next: Oil Market Outlook | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
- 13Energy Calendaraibottlenecks.app
- 14Houston Energy Market Calendar | Houston Energy Works | Houston Energy Workshoustonenergyworks.com
13. Related News
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 18 resolved YES, 2 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXAAAGASWNJ-26SEP14-4.4600: NO (Sep 14, 2026)
- KXAAAGASWNJ-26SEP14-4.4400: NO (Sep 14, 2026)
- KXAAAGASWNJ-26SEP14-4.4200: YES (Sep 14, 2026)
- KXAAAGASWNJ-26SEP14-4.4000: YES (Sep 14, 2026)
- KXAAAGASWNJ-26SEP14-4.3800: YES (Sep 14, 2026)
