New Jersey gas prices this week
Short Answer
New Jersey gas prices are likely to exceed $4.04 per gallon this week, with elevated crude oil prices and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on November 1, 2026, exerting upward pressure, a view priced by the market at 99%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market's primary movement was a drop in probability between October 26 and October 28, which corresponds to reports of falling average gasoline prices in New Jersey. The state average declined 7 cents to $4.20 per gallon in the week ending October 23, with reports on October 28 placing the average around $4.16 per gallon. This downward price trend appears to have lowered market confidence, causing the contract's probability to fall despite the spot price remaining well above the $3.9800 resolution threshold.
A subsequent rebound on October 29 does not coincide with any specific news in the provided materials. This reversal may reflect a reassessment that prices are likely to stay above the contract's strike price through the November 2 resolution date. All price movements occurred on zero reported volume, indicating the shifts were not driven by active trading.
- New Jersey gas prices appear likely above $4.04, driven by elevated crude.
- November 1 OPEC+ meeting and geopolitical risks may drive prices higher.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.1000 | 77.0% | 76.2% | Elevated crude oil prices, geopolitical risks, and an upcoming OPEC+ meeting introduce upward pressure. |
| Above 4.0800 | 91.0% | 90.7% | Elevated crude oil prices, geopolitical risks, and an upcoming OPEC+ meeting introduce upward pressure. |
| Above 4.1400 | 19.0% | 17.4% | Elevated crude oil prices, geopolitical risks, and an upcoming OPEC+ meeting introduce upward pressure. |
| Above 4.2600 | 12.0% | 10.8% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above 4.3600 | 5.0% | 4.4% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
Current Context
New Jersey regular gasoline averaged around $4.16/gal on October 28, 2026, with county averages spanning $3.995-$4.488/gal on October 29 [1][2]. The recent trend was downward, as New Jersey prices fell 7 cents to $4.20/gal in the week ending October 23 [3]. Regional data for October 26 placed New Jersey gasoline near $4.17-$4.25/gal [3][4][5]. The EIA Central Atlantic benchmark also fell 6.1 cents week over week to $4.251/gal, with the U.S. average at $4.269/gal [5]. Near-term downside support for gasoline came from the transition to cheaper winter-blend fuel and falling regional prices [3].
Geopolitical tensions elevate crude prices, creating upside risk for gasoline. Crude oil markets faced strong geopolitical risks as of October 27-28 [6][7][8][9]. The IEA reported disrupted Middle East supply, with Brent around $134/bbl [6]. OIES data showed Brent averaging $126/bbl from October 1-23, forecasting $99/bbl for 2026 [7]. Goldman Sachs cited Brent near $112/bbl, driven by precautionary buying and hedging [8], while ING noted Brent around $114/bbl as markets awaited clarity post-U.S. midterms on November 3 [9]. Expert consensus for the week of November 2 suggested gasoline could drift lower if new Iran/Middle East strikes do not occur and the risk premium fades. However, refinery and product disruptions, low inventories, and shipping attacks still pose upside risk [6][7][9]. A public prediction market contract for New Jersey gas prices existed, but the retrieved snippet only specifies an October 29 threshold market (>$4.1450), not a reliable November 2 probability or settlement forecast [10]. The next EIA gasoline and diesel release is scheduled for November 3 [5].
Sources (10)
- 1New Jersey Average Gas Pricesgasprices.aaa.com
- 2New Jersey Gas Prices — Today's Average Price Per Gallon · Gasolyticsgasolytics.com
- 3AAA: U.S. gas price average falls 6 cents with switch to cheaper winter blend; price in N.J. drops 7 cents | ROI-NJroi-nj.com
- 4New Jersey Gas Prices (October 27, 2026): $4.17/gal, $0.10 Below U.S. Average | Energy Factbookenergyfactbook.com
- 5Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 6Oil Market Report - October 2026 - IEAiea.org
- 7OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 58 - Oxford Institute for Energy Studiesoxfordenergy.org
- 8Why Oil Prices Are Surging Despite Recovering Supply | Goldman Sachsgoldmansachs.com
- 9The Commodities Feed: Oil in wait-and-see mode ahead of US midterms | ING THINKthink.ing.com
- 10New Jersey gas prices tomorrow Odds & Predictionspublic.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 4.1800
📉 October 28, 2026: 76.0pp drop
Price decreased from 80.0% to 4.0%
What happened: The market's 76.0 percentage point drop for New Jersey gas prices to be "Above 4.1800" on October 28, 2026, was primarily driven by the actual average price of regular gasoline falling to approximately $4.16-$4.17 per gallon, below the specified threshold [1][2][3][4]. This price decline was principally attributed to the seasonal switch to cheaper winter-blend gasoline, a traditional news event cited as the main catalyst for the weekly drop in prices [5]. No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives was identified as a driver or contributor in the provided information. Therefore, social media appears to be irrelevant to this specific market movement.
Outcome: Above 4.1000
📉 October 27, 2026: 63.0pp drop
Price decreased from 72.0% to 9.0%
What happened: The alleged 63.0 percentage point drop for the "New Jersey gas prices this week" market on October 27, 2026, is not substantiated by the available research [6]. The closest related finding was a 64.0 percentage point repricing for a New Jersey gas contract reported for September 17–18, attributed to traders perceiving the gas rally had peaked [6]. As the reported market movement lacks substantiation, no specific social media activity or other catalyst can be identified as its driver [6]. Therefore, social media activity appears irrelevant to this unsubstantiated market movement.
📉 October 26, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 81.0% to 71.0%
What happened: The search evidence does not substantiate a 10.0 percentage point price drop for the "New Jersey gas prices this week" contract on October 26, 2026, especially for an "Above 4.1000" outcome, which is a threshold typically associated with the national U.S. gas price contract [7]. While New Jersey gas prices did decline by 7 cents to $4.15-$4.17 per gallon that week, primarily due to the seasonal switch to cheaper winter-blend gasoline, they remained comfortably above $4.1000 [8]. No specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives were identified as a catalyst for any price movement [7]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant.
Sources (8)
- 1New Jersey Average Gas Pricesgasprices.aaa.com
- 2Gas prices for 10/28/26: National average down another 2...finance.yahoo.com
- 3New Jersey Gas Prices Today — Regular $4.16/gal · Diesel $6.39fuelwide.com
- 4New Jersey Gas Prices — Today's Average Price Per Gallon · Gasolyticsgasolytics.com
- 5AAA: U.S. gas price average falls 6 cents with switch to cheaper winter blend; price in N.J. drops 7 cents | ROI-NJroi-nj.com
- 6预测市场全景日报 | FLASH-FILLINGflash-filling.com
- 7Econ Weekly Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 8Average gas prices in Philly market down 2nd week in a rowdelcotimes.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi prediction market contract resolves to YES if New Jersey gas prices this week are above $4.1200, and to NO if they are at or below this value. Trading for the market series begins on Sunday, November 1, at 10:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date listed as November 1, 2026. No special settlement conditions are explicitly detailed.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.0400 | $1.00 | $0.05 | 99% |
| Above 4.0600 | $1.00 | $0.05 | 99% |
| Above 4.0000 | $1.00 | $0.05 | 98% |
| Above 4.0800 | $0.95 | $0.32 | 91% |
| Above 3.9800 | $1.00 | $0.05 | 88% |
| Above 4.0200 | $1.00 | $0.05 | 88% |
| Above 4.1000 | $0.85 | $0.21 | 77% |
| Above 4.1200 | $0.62 | $0.43 | 58% |
| Above 4.1400 | $0.24 | $0.84 | 19% |
| Above 4.2000 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 18% |
| Above 4.2600 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 12% |
| Above 4.3000 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 10% |
| Above 4.3200 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 10% |
| Above 4.1600 | $0.08 | $0.94 | 7% |
| Above 4.2200 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Above 4.3400 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Above 4.3600 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Above 4.1800 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Above 4.2800 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Above 4.2400 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Above 4.3800 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
New Jersey's average regular gasoline price was $4.15 per gallon as of October 29, 2026, slightly below the national average of $4.23 [1][2][3][4]. This occurs amidst significant volatility in global energy markets, where Middle East conflicts and infrastructure attacks are leading to constrained supply and high oil prices, with Brent crude recently trading near $110-$112 per barrel [5][6]. Commodity market sentiment is currently defensive and 47% bearish, driven by these supply concerns and geopolitical uncertainty, although technical indicators for oil show a neutral to slightly bullish bias contingent on diplomatic developments [7][8].
Sources (8)
- 1New Jersey Average Gas Pricesgasprices.aaa.com
- 2State Gas Price Averagesgasprices.aaa.com
- 3New Jersey Gas Prices — Today's Average Price Per Gallon · Gasolyticsgasolytics.com
- 4New Jersey Gas Prices (October 27, 2026): $4.17/gal, $0.10 Below U.S. Average | Energy Factbookenergyfactbook.com
- 5Oil Market Report - October 2026 - IEAiea.org
- 6OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 58 - Oxford Institute for Energy Studiesoxfordenergy.org
- 7Commodity Sentiment 2026: 47% Bearish as Gas Surges, Gold | Finobirdfinobird.com
- 8Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Vance Letter Revives Iran Talks, Can WTI Hold $99.61? | FXEmpirefxempire.com
5. Trust Index
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score77Good
Market integrity is low (63), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score37High Risk
Trust score69Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What geopolitical developments in the Middle East between now and November 2 could significantly alter Brent crude prices and impact New Jersey gasoline prices?
| Brent crude price range (late Oct 2026) | $113-$117 per barrel [1][2] |
|---|---|
| NJ average gasoline price (Oct 29, 2026) | $4.1507 per gallon [3][4] |
| NJ gas price prediction (week ending Nov 2, 2026) | Very high probability above $4.16 per gallon [2][5] |
Middle East tensions drive significant Brent crude oil price volatility. Geopolitical developments in the region, such as an eight-month war involving Iran, ongoing Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, and transit risks in the Strait of Hormuz, are primary contributors to this volatility [6][1][2]. The prospect of intensified US military action following the US midterms on November 3, 2026, also contributes to these tensions and could substantially alter Brent crude prices. As an indicator of sensitivity, Brent crude prices already fluctuated between $113 and $117 per barrel in late October 2026 [1][2].
Regional oil market volatility directly influences New Jersey gasoline prices. The broader global oil market fluctuations, driven by these Middle East geopolitical risks, have a direct impact on gasoline costs in New Jersey. On October 29, 2026, the average retail price for a gallon of regular gasoline in New Jersey was $4.1507 [3][4]. Prediction markets indicate a very high probability that New Jersey gas prices will remain above $4.16 per gallon for the week ending November 2, 2026 [2][5].
Sources (6)
- 1Oil Prices Rise After Reported Houthi Strike on Saudi...indrastra.com
- 2Oil Prices Fall Amid Hopes for Peace and Middle East...globalbankingandfinance.com
- 3New Jersey Average Gas Pricesgasprices.aaa.com
- 4State Gas Price Averagesgasprices.aaa.com
- 5New Jersey gas prices this week Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 68-month Iran war looms over Israeli election as Egypt...cbsnews.com
7. What are the short-term U.S. and Central Atlantic gasoline price forecasts from the EIA and AAA for the week of November 2, 2026?
| EIA U.S. 2026 Forecast | $3.91/gal (full-year 2026) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| EIA U.S. Oct 26, 2026 Average | $4.269/gal (U.S. regular gasoline) [3][4] |
| AAA National Oct 29, 2026 Average | $4.2258/gal (national average) [5] |
Precise gasoline forecasts for November 2, 2026, are unavailable [1][5]. Neither the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) nor AAA New Jersey publishes precise gasoline price forecasts specifically for the week of November 2, 2026 [1][5]. EIA's October 2026 narrative indicates that gasoline prices are expected to remain stable in October compared to September, followed by a slow decrease aligning with crude oil price trends [1][6][3]. However, the EIA's next weekly gasoline release is scheduled for November 3, 2026, which is after the target week, limiting immediate data for that specific period [1][6][3].
EIA provides broader forecasts and recent U.S. and Central Atlantic prices [1][2]. The EIA's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, issued on October 6, 2026, projects the U.S. retail gasoline price at $3.91 per gallon for the entirety of 2026 and $3.56 per gallon for 2027 [1][2]. Before the target week, on October 26, 2026, the latest observed weekly U.S. regular gasoline average was $4.269/gal, and the Central Atlantic region (PADD 1B) averaged $4.251/gal [3][4]. Both these benchmarks had declined week-over-week [3][4]. Furthermore, EIA anticipates gasoline crack spreads will stay above seasonal averages into early 2027, suggesting only a gradual easing of near-term prices [6].
AAA reports national averages, but specific New Jersey forecasts are limited [5]. On October 29, 2026, the national AAA average for gasoline was reported at $4.2258/gal [5]. While a third-party estimate suggested New Jersey's gasoline price was approximately $4.06/gal for the week of October 26, 2026, this does not represent an official AAA forecast for the state [7][3]. A prediction market for New Jersey gasoline prices is set to resolve on November 2, 2026, using AAA's average regular New Jersey gasoline price [8][9][5]. Consequently, the confirmed AAA value for November 2 will not be available in the evidence before the market's resolution [8][9][5].
Sources (9)
- 1Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 2Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 3Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update - U.S. Energy Information...eia.gov
- 4EIA Weekly Fuel Update: Gasoline Mixed, Diesel Higherindexbox.io
- 5New Jersey Average Gas Pricesgasprices.aaa.com
- 6Short-Term Energy Outlookeia.gov
- 7New Jersey Gas Prices This Week — Estimate & Historyusgasgauge.com
- 8New Jersey gas prices this week Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 9New Jersey gas prices this week Nov 2, 2026 Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
8. How did the change in Brent crude oil prices compare to the change in gasoline crack spreads in October 2026, and which factor was a stronger driver for New Jersey pump prices?
| Brent crude increase late Oct 2026 | 8.2% ($8.43) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Gasoline crack spread late Oct 2026 | ~$21/bbl [1] |
| New Jersey gasoline price late Oct 2026 | $4.06/gal (down 5.8 cents week-over-week) [1][3] |
Brent crude rose, but New Jersey gasoline prices declined in October 2026. In October 2026, Brent crude oil prices experienced a sharp increase, while the gasoline crack spread moved in the opposite direction, narrowing [1][2]. Despite the rising crude oil prices, New Jersey regular gasoline prices were estimated at $4.06/gal for the week of October 26, marking a decline of 5.8 cents from the previous week [1][3]. This indicates that pump prices were falling even as Brent crude increased and the gasoline crack spread compressed [1][3].
The narrowing crack spread drove New Jersey pump prices lower. Specifically, Brent crude settled at $110.74/bbl on October 26, reflecting an 8.2% increase from its previous price of $102.31/bbl [1][2]. Concurrently, the gasoline crack spread narrowed to approximately $21/bbl, which exerted downward pressure on gasoline prices [1]. The decline in the gasoline crack spread, representing the refining-margin component, was identified as the stronger short-run driver for New Jersey pump prices during this period, overriding the upward pressure from higher Brent crude [1][3][4].
9. What is the final EIA Central Atlantic inventory and price data available to traders before the November 2, 2026 resolution date?
| Central Atlantic Regular Gasoline (Oct 26, 2026) | $4.251/gal [1] |
|---|---|
| Central Atlantic Diesel (Oct 26, 2026) | $6.496/gal [1] |
| AAA NJ Regular Gas Resolution Threshold | strictly greater than $3.9800 [2][3][4] |
Final EIA price and inventory data is available before resolution.
The final U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly retail price release accessible to traders before the November 2, 2026 resolution date is the Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update from Tuesday, October 27, 2026 [1][5]. For October 26, 2026, the EIA reported Central Atlantic (PADD 1B) regular gasoline at $4.251 per gallon, marking a $0.061 decrease from the preceding week, while diesel was reported at $6.496 per gallon, a $0.012 decline [1]. The subsequent EIA price release is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026, following the resolution date [1][5]. Similarly, the last EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report available before resolution is dated Wednesday, October 28, 2026, and includes Central Atlantic gasoline stocks, with the next report due November 4, 2026, after the resolution [6][7][5].
The prediction market settles using AAA New Jersey gasoline prices.
The prediction market for New Jersey gasoline prices resolves on November 2, 2026, with settlement based on AAA's New Jersey average regular gasoline price [2][3][4]. A principal threshold strictly greater than $3.9800 is used for resolution [2][3][4]. While EIA data offers relevant market information, it is not the designated settlement source for this contract [2][3][4]. New Jersey does not have its own specific weekly EIA gasoline price series; therefore, the Central Atlantic (PADD 1B) region serves as the closest EIA regional reference [1]. A third-party estimate linked the EIA's October 26 regional data to approximately $4.06 per gallon for New Jersey, though this figure should not be interpreted as the official AAA settlement value [8].
Sources (8)
- 1Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update - U.S. Energy Information...eia.gov
- 2New Jersey gas prices this week Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 3New Jersey gas prices this week (Nov 2, 2026): Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
- 4New Jersey gas prices this week Nov 2, 2026 Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
- 5Petroleum & Other Liquids Data - U.S. Energy Information...eia.gov
- 6Weekly Petroleum Status Report Schedule - U.S. Energy...eia.gov
- 7Weekly Petroleum Status Report - U.S. Energy Information...eia.gov
- 8New Jersey Gas Prices This Week — Estimate & Historyusgasgauge.com
10. Are there any reported refinery outages or maintenance schedules in PADD 1 (U.S. East Coast) that could constrain gasoline supply to New Jersey through November 2, 2026?
| PADD 1 Refinery Outages | No widespread public reports affecting New Jersey supply through November 2, 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| New Jersey Gasoline Price | Above $4.20/gallon as of late October 2026 [2][3] |
| US Refinery Utilization | High [1][4][5][6] |
Public reports currently show no major PADD 1 refinery constraints. As of late October 2026, public reports do not indicate widespread major refinery outages or maintenance in PADD 1 (U.S. East Coast) that would specifically constrain New Jersey's gasoline supply through November 2, 2026 [1]. While other U.S. regions, such as PADD 2 and PADD 3, have experienced some planned and unplanned maintenance, overall U.S. refinery utilization remains high, with regional markets generally supported by imports and pipeline flows from the Gulf Coast [1][4][5][6].
New Jersey gasoline prices are influenced by local factors and pipelines. New Jersey's gasoline prices are primarily shaped by the Colonial Pipeline, which terminates at Linden, and the operations of the two local refineries: Bayway and Paulsboro [2][3]. Recent data from late October 2026 indicates that New Jersey gas prices have been trading above $4.20 per gallon [2][3].
Sources (6)
- 1Unplanned US Refinery Outages Could Impact Freight Tradehellenicshippingnews.com
- 2New Jersey Gas Prices This Week — Estimate & Historyusgasgauge.com
- 3New Jersey gas prices this week: Kalshi Market Record | Kalshi Viewkalshiview.com
- 4U.S. Refineries to Run Lower Amid Regular Maintenance...industrialinfo.com
- 5U.S. refineries have been running at very high rates in 2026eia.gov
- 6US Refinery Utilization: 93.4% (October 16, 2026 EIA)thevaultreport.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The OPEC+ capacity meeting on November 1, 2026, is a primary catalyst for oil price volatility, with potential scenarios ranging from a measured supply increase to an aggressive capacity unwind or a production hold to support prices [1]. Further near-term market drivers include key U.S. economic events scheduled for the week of November 2, 2026. These events encompass the ISM Manufacturing PMI on November 2, the Senior Loan Officer Survey on November 2, and the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report on November 4 [2][3][4]. The EIA report is crucial for energy markets [4].
The EIA's next Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), set for release on November 10, 2026, is considered a critical test for market balances and crude oil price forecasting [5].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: November 02, 2026
- Expiration: November 09, 2026
- Closes: November 02, 2026
Sources (5)
- 1November 1 2026 OPEC+ Capacity Meeting: Crude Oil Trading Playbook — WTI, Brent, Saudi Signals | MarketCFD | CFD Broker Reviews & Trading Guidesmarketcfd.com
- 2Commodity release calendar: EIA, WASDE, OPEC, CPI, and Fed dates · GEOreadgeo.net
- 3Economic Calendar November 2–8, 2026 — Releases, Forecasts & Actuals | 8tickers8tickers.com
- 4November 2, 2026 economic calendar | Macro Bullseyemacrobullseye.com
- 5What price will WTI crude oil hit in November 2026 Odds & Prediction Market Analysis | CryptoSlatecryptoslate.com
13. Related News
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 6 resolved YES, 14 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXAAAGASWNJ-26OCT26-4.4400: NO (Oct 26, 2026)
- KXAAAGASWNJ-26OCT26-4.4200: NO (Oct 26, 2026)
- KXAAAGASWNJ-26OCT26-4.4000: NO (Oct 26, 2026)
- KXAAAGASWNJ-26OCT26-4.3800: NO (Oct 26, 2026)
- KXAAAGASWNJ-26OCT26-4.3600: NO (Oct 26, 2026)
