McDonald's Big Mac price in October
Short Answer
The Big Mac price reaching at least $6.08 in October 2026 is likely, priced at 93.0%, though observed national median and average prices as of October 20, 2026, are $5.99 and $5.91, below the market's lowest threshold.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market's slight upward repricing in early October appears driven by the digestion of initial price surveys for the month. Data from an October 1 survey of over 13,600 McDonald's locations reported a national median Big Mac price of $5.99. The contract's probability climbed from 78.0% to 81.0% by October 9 and has remained there since.
Subsequent data releases failed to move the market, suggesting they merely confirmed existing expectations. A separate survey on October 20 reiterated the $5.99 median, and an app-based tracker found a similar national average of $5.91. The contract's high probability, despite both median and average prices tracking below the likely $6.08 threshold, suggests traders anticipate a resolution mechanism sensitive to the wide distribution of prices. The observed range of a Big Mac in October extended as high as $9.50, providing a basis for a YES resolution even if national averages are lower.
- At least $6.08 remains the market favorite, but data appears unsupported.
- The US national median price held at $5.99 through October 20.
- This Big Mac price stickiness contrasts with September's broader limited-service menu inflation.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least $6.09 | 81.0% | 68.7% | Observed national Big Mac prices are below all listed thresholds. |
| At least $6.10 | 67.0% | 50.9% | Observed national Big Mac prices are below all listed thresholds. |
| At least $6.18 | 42.0% | 26.6% | Observed national Big Mac prices are below all listed thresholds. |
| At least $6.08 | 93.0% | 87.3% | Observed national Big Mac prices are below all listed thresholds. |
| At least $6.17 | 10.0% | 26.6% | Observed national Big Mac prices are below all listed thresholds. |
Current Context
U.S. Big Mac prices show significant geographic variation in October. A survey on October 20, 2026, found the U.S. Big Mac pickup price ranged from $3.99 to $8.99 across 13,752 McDonald’s restaurants, with a national median price of $5.99 [1][2]. The October 1 survey, covering 13,671 restaurants, also reported a $5.99 median, with an observed range of $3.99-$9.50, including special locations [2]. A separate app-based tracker in October 2026 estimated the national average at $5.91 across over 9,259 neighborhoods, with a full range of $3.99-$9.50 [3][4]. This difference reflects methodology and sample variances, as no single official national price exists [3]. Franchise-level pricing leads to regional disparities; for instance, October data indicate a median of roughly $4.99 in Texas, about $7.19 in New York City and Phoenix, and $7.75 in Montana, with special sites like airports pricing materially higher [1][2][4].
Inflation and AI-driven pricing contribute to Big Mac price dynamics. September 2026 saw unfavorable inflation for restaurant customers: food-away-from-home prices rose 3.5% year over year, limited-service restaurant prices 3.2%, and overall CPI 3.7% [5]. Hourly wages increased 3%, implying a 0.7% decline in real spending power when compared to overall CPI [5]. Dallas Fed economists noted on October 15, 2026, that Big Mac prices, while useful for purchasing-power parity studies, do not merely track domestic inflation [6]. Their analysis connected a 10% exchange-rate appreciation over four years with a 7.8% burger-based real-exchange-rate appreciation, suggesting financial shocks and exchange rates as important drivers [6]. Reuters reported on September 29, 2026, that McDonald’s uses artificial intelligence to help set menu prices in the U.S. and some global markets, a practice that can increase local price dispersion and presents customer-acceptance and antitrust concerns [7].
Prediction markets signal an October national average slightly above $6.00. The Kalshi October Big Mac market, set to resolve November 1, 2026, showed an 81% probability that the average U.S. October price would reach at least $6.09, and a 54% probability of at least $6.10 [8][9]. This market defines the average U.S. October 2026 price [9]. A separate Manifold play-money market, reported October 7, 2026, assigned a 90.9% probability to no Big Mac price exceeding $10 anywhere in the U.S. during 2026, under rules that exclude marked-up airport or stadium locations [10]. The best available evidence points to an October 2026 national average near $6.00, with Kalshi pricing a threshold just above $6 as more likely than not [2][5][8]. Continued restaurant inflation and dynamic local pricing create upside risk, but weak traffic and consumers’ declining real purchasing power constrain aggressive increases [2][5][8].
Sources (10)
- 1US Big Mac Index 2026: Big Mac Price by State | Drive Thru Indexdrivethruindex.com
- 2Same Big Mac, different price: $3.99 in Houston, TX, $9.39 in Grand Canyon, AZdrivethruindex.com
- 3McDonald's Menu Prices 2026 — Big Mac $5.91, All 50 Statesmenupricetracker.com
- 4Big Mac Price (2026)chainmenuprices.com
- 5Menu price inflation is up, and wages aren’t keeping pacenrn.com
- 6What Big Macs tell us about the disconnect between prices and exchange rates - Dallasfed.orgdallasfed.org
- 7AI might be pricing your McDonald's Big Macreuters.com
- 8McDonald's Big Mac price in Octoberkalshi.com
- 9McDonald's Big Mac price in October | Prediction Marketscoinbase.com
- 10Will a Big Mac cost more than $10 in 2026? - Manifold Markets Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: At least $6.16
📈 October 20, 2026: 22.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 23.0%
What happened: The provided web research does not support a 22.0 percentage point spike on October 20, 2026, for the "At least $6.16" outcome in the "McDonald's Big Mac price in October" prediction market, as available data only present threshold probabilities [1][2]. Therefore, it is not possible to identify a primary driver for this described market movement from the provided information. While general inflationary pressures and McDonald's use of dynamic pricing were relevant topics in September and October 2026, no specific social media posts or traditional news announcements on October 20 are documented to have caused a sharp price increase [3][4][5][6][7]. Consequently, social media activity cannot be identified as a primary driver or accelerant for a movement lacking documented evidence.
📉 October 19, 2026: 84.0pp drop
Price decreased from 85.0% to 1.0%
What happened: The reported 84.0 percentage point drop for the "At least $6.16" outcome in the "McDonald's Big Mac price in October" prediction market on October 19, 2026, cannot be validated by the provided sources, which lack the necessary prior probability data for such a calculation [1][2]. No specific social media activity, such as posts from key figures or viral narratives, was identified as having directly caused or coincided with such a market movement [8][9]. While McDonald's AI-assisted pricing and general inflation concerns were relevant news topics during October 2026, there is no evidence linking them as primary drivers to the alleged market drop [10][11][8][9]. Therefore, social media appears irrelevant to this unconfirmed price movement.
📈 October 18, 2026: 66.0pp spike
Price increased from 19.0% to 85.0%
What happened: The reported "66.0 percentage point spike" for the "At least $6.16" Big Mac price market is not substantiated by the provided sources, which show a 19.0% probability on October 19, 2026 [2]. However, on October 18, 2026, news and social media heavily focused on McDonald's adopting AI-assisted dynamic pricing, sparking consumer apprehension and a viral backlash over significant Big Mac price variations across locations [12][8][13]. This widely circulated narrative, suggesting the potential for higher and more differentiated prices, appeared to coincide with the reported movement date and would have been a primary driver if such a spike had occurred. Social media, amplified by traditional news, would likely have been a primary driver.
Outcome: At least $6.11
📈 October 17, 2026: 30.0pp spike
Price increased from 38.0% to 68.0%
What happened: The primary driver was widespread social media discussion and traditional news reporting in October 2026 concerning unproven allegations that McDonald's used AI to recommend higher franchise prices [14]. These claims, amplified by outlets like the Daily Mail, likely fueled speculation that the U.S. average Big Mac price would reach at least $6.11, despite conflicting real-time price data and McDonald's denial [15]. This narrative, which coincided with the market spike on October 17, appears to have driven the 30-percentage-point increase in market odds [14]. Social media was a primary driver, as the viral nature of these allegations directly impacted expectations about McDonald's pricing strategy.
📈 October 15, 2026: 36.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 37.0%
What happened: Research into the prediction market for "McDonald's Big Mac price in October" found no evidence of a 36.0 percentage point price spike on October 15, 2026 [16][17][14]. Therefore, a primary driver for this described market movement cannot be identified. While broader economic data indicates restaurant menu price inflation is rising at 3.5% year-over-year in mid-October 2026 [18], and McDonald's uses AI for dynamic pricing [16][14], these general trends do not correlate with a singular, sharp market increase on that specific date. Given the lack of evidence for the event, social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors cannot be confirmed as drivers.
Sources (18)
- 1McDonald's Big Mac price in October - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 2McDonald's Big Mac price in October Odds | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 3Inside McDonald’s push to have AI price your Big Mac | Reutersreuters.com
- 4McDonald's investor day: CEO Chris Kempczinski discusses inflationcnbc.com
- 5News Pageh5.ainvest.com
- 6Dynamic pricing in McDonalds? I’m not lovin’ it | The Independentindependent.co.uk
- 7How Much Have McDonald’s Prices Gone Up Since 2013?wegotthiscovered.com
- 8Why Some McDonald's Are More Expensive: An AI Now Suggests the Price at Every Store. Here's How Not to Overpay | AI Businessaibusiness.vc
- 9McDonald's AI Pricing Puts Its Franchisees in the Hot Seat - QSR Value Wars - Week of October 5, 2026 | Matterfact Podcast Newslettermatterfact.com
- 10McDonald's appears to have a pricing-power problemthestreet.com
- 11Hassett Says CPI Data Shows Inflation Needs ‘Some Work’finance.yahoo.com
- 12Consumer apprehension grows as US retailers adopt AI-assisted pricing tools - The Washington Postwashingtonpost.com
- 13McDonald's Caught Cheating Consumers for Profit as Rage Over Cost of Living Burnsthebignewsletter.com
- 14Is AI Making Your McDonald’s Order More Expensive? Here’s What We Knowfoodandwine.com
- 15US Big Mac Index 2026: Big Mac Price by State | Drive Thru Indexdrivethruindex.com
- 16McDonald's uses AI pricing engine to set menu prices by locationqz.com
- 17Same Big Mac, different price: $3.99 in Houston, TX, $9.39 in Grand Canyon, AZdrivethruindex.com
- 18Menu price inflation is up, and wages aren’t keeping pacenrn.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For a contract such as "At least $6.11":
- A YES resolution occurs if the McDonald's Big Mac price in October is determined to be $6.11 or higher.
- A NO resolution occurs if the McDonald's Big Mac price in October is determined to be less than $6.11.
- The market is based on the Big Mac price in October, with a maximum payout date of November 1, 2026.
- The webpage does not specify the exact methodology or data source used to determine the McDonald's Big Mac price for October.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least $6.08 | $0.93 | $0.14 | 93% |
| At least $6.09 | $0.81 | $0.23 | 81% |
| At least $6.10 | $0.67 | $0.40 | 67% |
| At least $6.11 | $0.57 | $0.51 | 56% |
| At least $6.12 | $0.48 | $0.59 | 48% |
| At least $6.18 | $0.18 | $0.89 | 42% |
| At least $6.13 | $0.41 | $0.66 | 41% |
| At least $6.14 | $0.34 | $0.75 | 28% |
| At least $6.15 | $0.28 | $0.80 | 23% |
| At least $6.16 | $0.23 | $0.85 | 23% |
| At least $6.17 | $0.20 | $0.87 | 10% |
Market Discussion
Prediction markets on the McDonald's Big Mac price in October 2026 indicate a leading threshold of at least $6.08, with probabilities of $6.09 at 79%, $6.10 at 62.5%, $6.11 at 53%, and $6.12 at 44% as of October 19, 2026 [1][2]. This context is complicated by significant regional price variations, with a nationwide median of $5.99 as of October 1, 2026, and a pricing strategy that leverages a machine-learning engine while allowing franchisee discretion [3][4][5]. Public discussion on social media frequently highlights consumer sticker shock over perceived historical price increases, attributing them to inflation and other economic factors [6].
Sources (6)
- 1McDonald's Big Mac price in October Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 2McDonald's Big Mac price in October Odds | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 3Same Big Mac, different price: $3.99 in Houston, TX, $9.39 in Grand Canyon, AZdrivethruindex.com
- 4Inside McDonald's push to have AI price your Big Maccnbc.com
- 5Is AI Making Your McDonald’s Order More Expensive? Here’s What We Knowfoodandwine.com
- 6How Much Have McDonald’s Prices Gone Up Since 2013?wegotthiscovered.com
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score76Good
Market integrity is low (60), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score49High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score70Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. How are the latest inflation figures from the September 2026 CPI report likely to influence McDonald's pricing strategies through October?
| September 2026 CPI (YoY) | 3.7% year over year (headline) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Limited-Service Meals CPI (YoY) | 3.2% year over year (September 2026) [3] |
| Avg. US Big Mac Price | At least $6.12 (44% probability as of Oct 19, 2026) [4][5] |
September CPI report highlights accelerating inflation, especially in energy and food. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released October 14, 2026, indicated an acceleration of headline inflation, with a 0.6% month-over-month increase and a 3.7% year-over-year rise, primarily driven by energy costs [1][2][3]. While overall food prices remained unchanged month over month, the cost of food away from home increased by 0.2% month over month and 3.5% year over year [1][2][3]. Specifically relevant to McDonald's, the limited-service meals and snacks category experienced a 3.2% year-over-year increase in September 2026 [3].
McDonald's will likely maintain current Big Mac prices despite pressures. Despite the persistent inflationary environment and elevated operating costs, McDonald's is largely anticipated to preserve its average Big Mac price in October, or implement only modest increases [6][7][8]. The company navigates these cost pressures by balancing them against concerns over weak customer traffic and affordability [6][7][8]. McDonald's employs a machine-learning pricing system to set localized prices, which has recently resulted in more conservative pricing adjustments, including occasional price reductions, alongside a strategic focus on value offerings and digital promotions [6][7][8].
Uniform nationwide Big Mac price increases are unlikely in October. Consequently, the September CPI report is not expected to lead to a widespread national Big Mac price hike during October [6][8]. Instead, the company is projected to use localized algorithmic adjustments, value menus, app-exclusive offers, and combo-price management to protect customer traffic [1][3][6][4][5][7][8]. Market data from October 19, 2026, suggests that the average U.S. Big Mac price is at least $6.12 at approximately 44% of locations, with the overall average anticipated to be near $6.10-$6.12, indicating that a significant increase is not the central market expectation [4][5].
Sources (8)
- 1Consumer Price Index News Release - 2026 M09 Resultsbls.gov
- 2Consumer Price Index Summary - 2026 M09 Resultsbls.gov
- 3CPI Home: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov
- 4McDonald's Big Mac price in October - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 5McDonald's Big Mac price in October Odds | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 6Inside McDonald's push to have AI price your Big Macreuters.com
- 7Why McDonald's faces a tough slog winning customers backfortune.com
- 8McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Q2 FY2026 earnings call...finance.yahoo.com
7. What evidence from McDonald's corporate statements or franchisee surveys supports the market's expectation of an average Big Mac cost above $6.09 for October 2026?
| Big Mac Price Increase 2019-2024 | 21% from $4.39 to $5.29 [1] |
|---|---|
| Franchisee Profitability 2026 | Falling due to rising food/labor costs and remodel spending [2] |
| Big Mac Price Forecast October 2026 | Corporate statements do not forecast above $6.09 [3] |
Franchisee discretion and historical trends drive Big Mac price expectations. The primary rationale for anticipating an average Big Mac price above $6.09 by October 2026 stems from historical price growth, persistent restaurant cost inflation, and the considerable discretion of local franchisees [1][4][3]. While McDonald's corporate supplies pricing tools and restaurant-specific recommendations, it explicitly denies using real-time dynamic pricing or AI to directly determine prices, stating in 2024 that franchisees are responsible for setting their menu prices [1][4][5][6]. Corporate statements do not forecast a specific average Big Mac price above $6.09, instead consistently emphasizing affordability and value initiatives [3][7][8][9].
Rising costs and franchisee profitability challenges exert upward pricing pressure. Evidence points to sustained pressure for menu price increases, illustrated by a 21% rise in the average Big Mac price from $4.39 in 2019 to $5.29 in 2024 [1]. A 2026 independent operator survey indicated that franchisees are experiencing declining profitability due to escalating food and labor costs, alongside required remodel spending, which creates an impetus to raise prices [2]. Conversely, corporate disclosures consistently highlight affordability and value initiatives, such as McValue programs, bundled offers, low-price options, and digital deals, advocating for cautious, operator-led pricing decisions [7][8][9]. The same 2026 independent survey also noted consumer resistance to price increases, further reinforcing the need for careful pricing strategies [2].
Sources (9)
- 1Nobody at McDonald's Headquarters Sets the Price of a...bigmacindex.app
- 2McDonald's Franchisees Face Remodel Challengeslinkedin.com
- 3McDonald's has an inflation problem it can't price awaythestreet.com
- 4McDonald's disputes reports that it uses AI to set pricesrestaurantdive.com
- 5AI pricing lawsuit against McDonald's raises new antitrust...reuters.com
- 6Inside McDonald's Push to Have AI Price Your Big Macmoney.usnews.com
- 7Notice of Annual Shareholders' Meeting and Proxy Statementcorporate.mcdonalds.com
- 8Exhibit 99.1 - 3.31.26 - Q1corporate.mcdonalds.com
- 9Exhibit 99.1 - 12.31.2025corporate.mcdonalds.com
8. How do October 2026 Big Mac prices in high-cost states like New York and Montana compare to prices in low-cost states like Texas, and what does this spread imply for the national average?
| New York Big Mac Price | $5.23 (October 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Texas Big Mac Price | $4.39 (October 2026) [1] |
| National Average Prediction | $6.10–$6.11 (October 2026) [2][3][4] |
Big Mac prices in October 2026 showed notable regional disparities across states. New York recorded a price of $5.23, which was $0.84, or 19.1%, higher than Texas's $4.39 [1]. Montana's price, at $4.27, was $0.12 below Texas's price and $0.96 below New York's price, reflecting differences of 2.7% and 22.5% respectively [1].
Prediction markets indicated a higher national average compared to state-level means. For October 2026, prediction markets implied a national average price point of approximately $6.10–$6.11, based on market snapshots around October 20 [2][3][4]. This predicted average is significantly above the simple unweighted arithmetic mean of about $4.46 derived from a 2026 state-price table [1]. The market's resolution hinges on the first October 2026 Spice Data value for the average U.S. Big Mac price, which may not align with the simple state-table mean [1][2][3]. Furthermore, a 2025 city-level sample exemplified even wider local price variations; for instance, Missoula, Montana, had a price of $7.25, and Buffalo, New York, was $6.72, while Texas cities like Austin, Houston, and Fort Worth ranged from $4.36 to $4.66 [5].
Sources (5)
- 1Fast Food Prices by State 2026worldpopulationreview.com
- 2McDonald's Big Mac price in October - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 3McDonald's Big Mac price in October Odds | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 4Inflation Prediction Markets & CPI Odds | Kalshikalshi.com
- 5What a McDonald's Big Mac Costs in Every Major U.S. Citytimeout.com
9. What are the key methodological differences between the Drive Thru Index and other app-based trackers for calculating the U.S. average Big Mac price in October 2026?
The Drive Thru Index's exact methodology remains largely undocumented. Its specific sampling frame, weighting, and treatment of tax, promotions, app discounts, or delivery markups are not fully assertable based on available sources [1]. If it refers to observed drive-thru or app location prices, it would likely reflect local franchise pricing and channel-specific menus [1]. This approach contrasts significantly with Mconomics, which monitors standardized consumer prices at physical retail locations across over 150 U.S. cities and all 50 states [2]. Mconomics specifically excludes algorithmic markups, promotional discounts, app-based pricing variations, and location-specific markups, aiming to approximate CPI-style standard in-store pricing [2]. The Economist Big Mac Index also differs materially; it is not an app-based nationwide location average [3][4]. Since July 2022, its U.S. observation has relied on a McDonald’s-provided price, replacing an earlier average of four major U.S. cities, with its primary purpose being international purchasing-power-parity comparison rather than high-frequency U.S. inflation measurement [3][4].
Menu prices vary significantly due to independent franchisee pricing and channel. Other general menu-price sources typically rely on samples or stated averages rather than a transparent national transaction-weighted mean [5][6][7][8]. Franchisees are known to set prices independently, leading to substantial differences even between nearby locations [5][6][7][8]. A key distinction involves the divergence between app and promotional prices versus posted standalone prices. For example, a 2026 menu audit revealed a $5.99 drive-thru or takeout Big Mac alongside a discounted $4.79 mobile-app price and a $7.89 third-party delivery price [5][9]. Industry data indicate that nearly 30% of restaurant visits in 2025 were driven by a deal or promotion [9]. Consequently, any app-based tracker that captures displayed app offers, rather than regular menu prices, will measure effective deal prices instead of a CPI-like list-price average [9].
Sources (9)
- 1A site that tracks the price of a Big Mac in every US...news.ycombinator.com
- 2The Real Big Mac Index - Big Mac Price Trackermconomics.com
- 3Data and methodology for the Big Mac indexgithub.com
- 4Our Big Mac index shows how burger prices differ across...economist.com
- 5Takeout McDonald's Menu With Prices 2026: Full Carryout...knowmenuprices.com
- 6Big Mac Price USA | Burgers Menu & Caloriesmcdomenuusa.com
- 7$20 at McDonald's Now vs. 10 Years Ago | GOBankingRatesgobankingrates.com
- 8Fast foodies are getting fed up with price hikes at the drive-thrunbcnews.com
- 9The Drive-Thru Is Losing Share. Where Are Orders Going?qsrresearchhub.com
10. How does the Big Mac's year-over-year price inflation as of Q3 2026 compare against Burger King's Whopper and the broader food-away-from-home index?
| Limited-service meals inflation (Sep 2026) | 3.2% (year over year) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Food-away-from-home CPI (Sep 2026) | 3.5% (year over year) [1][2][3] |
| Big Mac prediction market >= $6.12 | 44%-48% probability for October 2026 [4][5][6][7] |
The available data does not allow for a direct year-over-year comparison of Big Mac and Whopper price inflation for Q3 2026 [4][5][6][8][9][1]. Information regarding the Big Mac in October 2026 primarily concerns an unresolved prediction market for its overall price level rather than a year-over-year inflation rate [4][5][6][7]. Similarly, market data for the Whopper largely pertains to the Double Whopper, and standalone Whopper prices are heavily dependent on location, making it unreliable to infer a national year-over-year inflation rate [8][9][10][11].
Broader food-away-from-home CPI shows moderate year-over-year increases. As a general benchmark, the U.S. food-away-from-home Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered a 3.5% increase year over year as of September 2026 [1][2][3]. Within this sector, limited-service meals, a category directly relevant to fast food establishments, experienced a 3.2% increase during the same period [1][2][3].
October 2026 Big Mac price prediction market remains unresolved. An October 2026 prediction market for the Big Mac's price level indicated a 44%–48% probability for the price to be at least $6.12, and a 53%–56% probability for it to be at least $6.11; this market was unresolved as of October 20, 2026 [4][5][6][7].
Sources (11)
- 1Consumer Price Index News Release - 2026 M09 Resultsbls.gov
- 2CPI Home: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov
- 312-month percentage change, Consumer Price Index,...bls.gov
- 4McDonald's Big Mac price in October Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 5McDonald's Big Mac price in October - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 6McDonald's Big Mac price in October Odds | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 7Inflation Prediction Markets & CPI Odds | Kalshikalshi.com
- 8Burger King Double Whopper price in Octoberkalshi.com
- 9Burger King Double Whopper price in October | Prediction Marketscoinbase.com
- 10What A Burger King Whopper Cost In 2000 Vs 2026yahoo.com
- 112000 Burger King ad shows Whopper prices climbed well...thecooldown.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The US Big Mac national median price remained at $5.99 on October 20, 2026, unchanged from October 13 [1][2]. This observed price stickiness contrasts with September 2026 limited-service restaurant menu inflation, which rose 0.2% month over month and 3.2% year over year [3]. Persistent labor, food, rent, or energy costs present an upside risk to pricing, while weak demand, promotions, or franchise-level price competition pose downside risks [1][2][3].
Broader inflation data indicate potential market shifts. September 2026 headline CPI rose 0.6% month over month and 3.7% year over year, with core CPI up 0.3% month over month and 2.6% year over year [3]. A nowcast as of October 20 estimated October 2026 headline CPI at +0.22% month over month and core CPI at +0.28% [4]. Kalshi pricing implied an 86% chance CPI would rise more than 0.1% for the October release, scheduled for November 10 [5][6].
The October 27-28 FOMC meeting, with the decision on October 28, is a critical event [7][6]. As of October 20, 2026, prediction-market pricing suggested an 83% probability of a hold, 16% for a hike, and 1% for a cut [7]. Key bullish-inflation catalysts include renewed energy or shipping shocks, a hot core CPI/PPI print, strong payrolls, or hawkish Fed communication; bearish catalysts are falling energy prices, weak employment or growth, softer core CPI, and a Fed pause [8][6]. Other upcoming events include October 23 global flash PMIs and US consumer-inflation-expectations data [6].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 09, 2026
- Closes: November 02, 2026
Sources (8)
- 1US Big Mac Index 2026: Big Mac Price by State | Drive Thru Indexdrivethruindex.com
- 2Same Big Mac, different price: $3.99 in Houston, TX, $9.39 in Grand Canyon, AZdrivethruindex.com
- 3Menu Prices | Economic Indicators | Research | National Restaurant Association | National Restaurant Associationrestaurant.org
- 4US CPI nowcast for October 2026 — GlobalMacroLensglobalmacrolens.com
- 5CPI in October Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 6Hot Inflation, Falling Yields: What Moved Marketsfedandmarkets.com
- 7October 2026 FOMC Prediction — Will the Fed Hike Rates? | PredictionMarketsPickspredictionmarketspicks.com
- 8October 28 FOMC: What Prediction Markets Say About the Fed's Next Movepredictionmarkets.us
