Yes
Market Model 6.0% 3.8%
Inflation Markets
Active Markets (11)
Above 3.9%
Market Model 15.0% 11.8%
Above 4.1%
Market Model 4.0% 1.8%
Exactly 0.3%
Market Model 99.0% 98.1%
Exactly 0.0%
Market Model 1.0% 1.2%
PPI YoY in September Kalshi
Above 5.6%
Market Model 70.0% 59.7%
Above 5.3%
Market Model 96.0% 94.9%
CPI in September Kalshi
Above 0.6%
Market Model 20.0% 10.1%
Above 0.4%
Market Model 20.0% 10.1%
Before 2027
Market Model 4.0% 2.5%
Before 2028
Market Model 8.0% 5.5%
Above 4.5%
Market Model 36.0% 47.9%
Above 4.4%
Market Model 59.0% 60.1%
At least 4%
Market Model 91.3% 90.0%
At least 3.5%
Market Model 99.1% 98.9%
Above $1200
Market Model 5.0% 10.0%
Above $1000
Market Model 78.0% 83.8%
Stagflation
Market Model 32.8% 36.8%
Soft landing
Market Model 16.9% 29.9%
Yes
Market Model 13.0% 10.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will inflation in Brazil be below 4.00% in Dec 2026? Yes refers to: In Dec 2026 | 6.0% | 3.8% | Med | 62 | Refresh |
| Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY) Top outcome: Above 3.9% | 15.0% | 11.8% | Med | 65 | Refresh |
| CPI month-over-month in Oct 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 0.3% | 99.0% | 98.1% | High | 64 | Refresh |
| PPI YoY in September Top outcome: Above 5.6% | 70.0% | 59.7% | High | 72 | Refresh |
| CPI in September Top outcome: Above 0.6% | 20.0% | 10.1% | Med | 30 | Refresh |
| Costco raises hot dog combo price? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 4.0% | 2.5% | High | 71 | Refresh |
| How high will CPI get this year? Top outcome: Above 4.5% | 36.0% | 47.9% | High | 61 | Refresh |
| How high will inflation get this year? Top outcome: At least 4% | 91.3% | 90.0% | High | 65 | Refresh |
| How high will the price of fertilizer get this year? Top outcome: Above $1200 | 5.0% | 10.0% | High | 72 | Refresh |
| State of the economy at the end of 2026 Top outcome: Stagflation | 32.8% | 36.8% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| Will core CPI fall below 2.2% in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 13.0% | 10.5% | Med | 64 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (30)
Yes
Market Model — —
PPI YoY in June Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
US gasoline CPI for May Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
US airline fares CPI for May Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
CPI in August Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
CPI in June Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
CPI core in Apr 2026 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
CPI in April Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
CPI core in June Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
US shelter CPI in April 2026 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Egg prices up in March 2026? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
CPI in Feb 2026? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
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