Short Answer

The October 2026 headline CPI month-over-month increase is expected to exceed 0.1%, driven by anticipated moderation in energy and shelter prices, with the market pricing this outcome at 92.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The primary driver for this market's upward move was the widespread dissemination of Bloomberg's Price Project data. Following the data's release, which showed significant late-October price increases in motor fuel (+39.9%) and airline tickets (+31.3%), the market probability spiked 11.0 percentage points on November 2. This single-day repricing from 56.0% to 67.0% reflects new information leading traders to expect a higher official CPI print.

This sensitivity to high-frequency data follows an already accelerating inflation trend. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that September headline CPI had increased to 3.7% year-over-year, up from 3.4% in August. That print was driven by a 9.1% monthly surge in gasoline prices, reportedly linked to the US-Iran conflict. Core CPI for September was more subdued, rising 2.6% year-over-year.

October CPI likely rises 0.2-0.3% due to moderating energy, shelter prices.
Major forecasts indicate CPI rising above 0.4% is unlikely.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome	Market	Model	Why
Above 0.2%	65.0%	66.5%	Multiple forecasts project CPI to rise between 0.24% and 0.3%.
Above 0.1%	92.0%	92.8%	Reputable financial institutions forecast CPI rising 0.2% to 0.3% month-over-month.
Above 0.3%	15.0%	14.7%	Most major forecasts project CPI to be at or below 0.3% month-over-month.
Above 0.4%	7.0%	5.8%	Major forecasts from financial institutions project CPI firmly below 0.4%.
Above 0.0%	98.0%	98.2%	CPI is expected to show a positive, moderate month-over-month increase.

Current Context

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the October 2026 CPI report on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET ^[1]^[2]. The September 2026 headline CPI advanced 0.6% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, increasing from 3.4% in August, primarily driven by a 9.1% surge in gasoline and a 5.2% rise in the overall energy index, linked to the US-Iran conflict ^[3]^[4]. Core CPI for September rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year ^[4]. The BLS will not publish 12-month changes for most series for October 2026, as October 2025 data were not collected due to a government shutdown; thus, month-over-month figures will be the primary comparable measures ^[5]^[6]. Gasoline prices in October 2026 slipped from $4.35/gallon in the first week to $4.27 by October 26, according to EIA surveys, with the four-week average of about $4.31 approximately 0.9% below September's $4.35 before seasonal adjustment, suggesting energy will be a modest driver for October CPI ^[5].

Analysts anticipate a moderate increase in October CPI. TD Securities forecasts October headline CPI at +0.30% month-over-month and core CPI at +0.21% month-over-month, attributing this to softer core goods, declines in used-vehicle prices, and expected mean reversion in shelter costs ^[7]. Continuum Economics projects October headline CPI at +0.2% (0.24% before rounding) and core CPI at +0.2% (0.22% before rounding), with goods excluding food and energy expected to rise 0.16% and services less energy 0.24% ^[8]. The Cleveland Fed's nowcast, updated November 3, 2026, shows October 2026 CPI at 0.24% month-over-month and 3.74% year-over-year, with core CPI at 0.21% month-over-month and 2.48% year-over-year ^[9]. XTech's final forecast (November 3, 2026) calls for October headline CPI at +0.2% and core near +0.3%, noting gasoline flattened after September's jump and shelter remained steady near 0.3% month-over-month ^[5]. Nowflation's forecast for October 2026 CPI is 3.82% year-over-year ^[10].

Prediction markets indicate a slight increase, impacting Fed rate expectations. Kalshi prediction market prices 'Above 0.1%' month-over-month at 88-91%, 'Above 0.2%' at 65%, and 'Above 0.3%' at 14-15% ^[4]^[11]. Polymarket assigns a 90.5-91% probability to a 3.7% year-over-year print for October 2026 ^[12]. The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75%-4.00% on October 28, 2026, with a 10-2 vote, where Chair Kevin Warsh noted higher energy prices; September minutes indicated most officials expected another hike by year-end ^[5]^[13]. CME FedWatch shows a 72% probability of rates rising to 4.50%-4.75% by September 2027 ^[5]^[13]. The November 10 CPI release is a key catalyst before the December 9, 2026 FOMC meeting; a reading below 3% year-over-year could strengthen the case for a December rate cut, while a reading above 3.5% would reduce expectations of a December cut to near zero ^[14].

Sources (14)

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability

Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above 0.2%

📈 November 02, 2026: 11.0pp spike

Price increased from 56.0% to 67.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market spike was likely the widespread dissemination of Bloomberg's Price Project data, which showed significant price increases through late October in key categories such as motor fuel (+39.9%), airline tickets (+31.3%), and computer software/accessories (+28.2%) ^[1]. This timely and granular data, revealing persistent inflationary pressures, directly impacted expectations for the upcoming October CPI report ^[1]. While Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack's social media post about consumer acceptance of high inflation was a "notable social media catalyst" in the broader inflation discourse ^[2], it occurred before October 14, 2026, leading the November 02 spike by several weeks and thus not serving as the immediate trigger ^[2]. Consequently, social media acted as a contributing accelerant to the ongoing inflation narrative rather than the primary driver of this precise market movement.

Outcome: Above 0.4%

📈 October 30, 2026: 11.0pp spike

Price increased from 3.0% to 14.0%

What happened: The prediction market's 11.0 percentage point price spike on October 30, 2026, for "CPI in October Above 0.4%" was primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's decision on October 29, 2026, to hold interest rates steady ^[3]. This decision, following a hot September CPI report (0.6% MoM headline, 0.3% MoM core) driven by energy prices from the Iran war, likely signaled to markets a less aggressive stance against inflation, thus increasing expectations for persistent price increases in October ^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7]^[3]. The Fed's emphasis on needing "more information" may have further reinforced concerns that October CPI would remain elevated, leading to the rapid reassessment in the prediction market ^[3]. Social media activity, dated earlier in October, contributed to a general inflation narrative but was not the primary driver of this specific, timed spike ^[8]^[2].

Outcome: Above 0.1%

📈 October 22, 2026: 14.0pp spike

Price increased from 77.0% to 91.0%

What happened: The primary driver behind the 14.0 percentage point spike in the "CPI in October Above 0.1%" prediction market on October 22, 2026, was the hotter-than-expected September 2026 CPI report released on October 14, 2026, which showed headline inflation at 0.6% MoM and core CPI at 0.3% MoM ^[9]^[4]. This official data immediately increased expectations for sustained inflation, making an "Above 0.1%" outcome for the upcoming October CPI highly probable. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack's social media post, reported on October 14, stating that consumers were "starting to accept high inflation as just a fact of life" due to a long streak of elevated CPI, served as a strong reinforcing accelerant to this narrative ^[2]. Her authoritative commentary, underscoring the persistence of high inflation, likely solidified market sentiment in the days following the official data release, contributing to the spike. Social media, therefore, acted as a contributing accelerant, reinforcing the strong inflationary signals from traditional news.

Sources (9)

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi prediction market concerns the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October. For a given contract like "Above X%", a "YES" resolution occurs if the reported CPI value is greater than X%, and a "NO" resolution occurs if the CPI value is less than or equal to X%. Trading begins on November 10, 2026, at 6:30 am EST, and the market is expected to resolve on the same date.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket	Yes (price)	No (price)	Last trade probability
Above -0.1%	$1.00	$0.01	99%
Above 0.0%	$0.99	$0.02	98%
Above 0.1%	$0.92	$0.10	92%
Above 0.2%	$0.66	$0.36	65%
Above 0.3%	$0.19	$0.83	15%
Above 0.4%	$0.10	$0.95	7%
Above 0.5%	$0.02	$0.99	4%
Above 0.6%	$0.01	$1.00	1%
Above 0.7%	$0.01	$1.00	1%
Above 0.8%	$0.01	$1.00	1%
Above 0.9%	$0.01	$1.00	1%
Above 1.0%	$0.01	$1.00	1%

Market Discussion

Prediction markets show a high probability of a positive month-over-month CPI increase for October 2026, with platforms pricing 'Above 0.1%' at 92% and Polymarket indicating an 87% probability for a 3.7% annual inflation rate (YoY) ^[1]^[2]^[3]. While headline CPI is projected around +0.30% MoM and 3.7% YoY, core CPI is forecast to cool to approximately +0.2% MoM, though it has missed consensus in recent releases ^[4]^[5]^[6]. A potential complication is the risk of the BLS not publishing October 2026 12-month CPI changes due to a 2025 appropriations lapse ^[7]^[8].

Sources (8)

5. Trust Index

Scheduled statistical release: the agency holds the number before publication

Integrity risk· Information exposure

How it adds up

Integrity80% of score69Caution

Trade quality20% of score57Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score67Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile

Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data

6. What evidence supports the consensus view that shelter inflation will continue to moderate in the October 2026 BLS report?

TD Securities Oct 2026 Headline CPI	+0.30% m/m ^[1]^[2]
Cleveland Fed Oct 2026 CPI Nowcast	0.27% m/m ^[1]^[2]
Oct 2026 Shelter Index (Kalshi/Public)	435.0-435.6, 'Above 435.6' at 4-6% probability ^[3]^[4]

Consensus forecasts and prediction markets anticipate continued moderation in October 2026 CPI. Analysts, including TD Securities, attribute their cooling inflation forecasts for October 2026 primarily to an expected mean reversion in shelter and owners' equivalent rent ^[1]^[2]. TD Securities projects the October 2026 headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at +0.30% month-over-month and core CPI at +0.21% ^[1]^[2]. This aligns with the Cleveland Fed's nowcast for October 2026 CPI, which is near 0.27% month-over-month ^[1]^[2]. The general consensus for a cooler inflation print is reflected in prediction markets, such as Kalshi's 'CPI in October 2026' market, where the 'Above 0.3%' contract was priced at 14-17% in early November 2026 ^[5]^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9].

Dedicated shelter markets and housing data project stability for the shelter index. Prediction markets on platforms like Kalshi and Public.com specifically price the October 2026 shelter index at approximately 435.0-435.6, assigning only a 4-6% probability for the index to be 'Above 435.6' ^[3]^[4]. This indicates that traders expect the shelter index to remain stable or show only minor increases from its September level ^[3]^[4]. Supporting this outlook, existing home prices have risen by only +1.3% year-over-year, and some inflation models incorporating lagged home prices suggest that current underlying housing price growth does not support accelerated shelter inflation ^[10]. While the September 2026 shelter CPI did increase by 0.4% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, and a PNC analysis noted a 'stalled' moderation during that month, these broader projections still point to a return to moderation for October ^[11]^[12]^[13].

Sources (13)

7. How will the October 2026 CPI release on November 10 influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at the December 2026 FOMC meeting?

September 2026 Headline CPI	3.7% YoY ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]
October CPI Monthly Change Forecast	0.2-0.3% (prediction markets) ^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9]^[4]
Probability of Dec 2026 Rate Hike	>80% (futures market) ^[3]^[10]

The October CPI report is pivotal for the Fed's December decision. The October 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for release on November 10, 2026, is the final major inflation data point before the Federal Reserve's December 8-9, 2026 FOMC meeting ^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9]^[4]^[11]^[2]^[3]. This release will directly inform the Fed's assessment of whether inflation is trending towards its 2% target ^[11]^[2]^[3]. A quarter-point interest rate hike is broadly anticipated for the December meeting; nearly all economists polled by Reuters forecast a 25-basis-point increase, which would set the target range at 4.00-4.25% ^[12]^[2]^[5]. Futures markets, as of October 28, 2026, indicate a greater than 80% probability of a December rate hike ^[3]^[10]. Prediction markets currently price the monthly headline change for October CPI at approximately 0.2-0.3% ^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9]^[4].

The Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish bias on interest rates. At its October 27-28, 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve signaled a hawkish bias, though it held the federal funds rate at 3.75-4.00% ^[1]^[2]^[3]. Governors Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented at this meeting, favoring an immediate quarter-point increase ^[1]^[2]^[3]. Previous data showed the September 2026 CPI with headline inflation at 3.7% year-over-year and core inflation at 3.1% year-over-year, notably influenced by a 9.1% jump in gasoline prices ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5].

Sources (12)

8. How do October's energy price trends compare with the surge seen in September 2026, and what does this imply for the headline CPI reading?

October 2026 Headline CPI Forecast (Cleveland Fed Nowcast)	0.24% m/m ^[1]
September 2026 US Energy Index Surge	5.2% m/m ^[2]^[3]^[4]
Kalshi Oct 2026 CPI Prediction (above 0.2%)	62-65% probability ^[5]^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9]^[10]^[11]^[12]

October 2026 energy price trends anticipate a notable CPI cooling. October 2026 is expected to demonstrate mean reversion in energy prices, contributing to a cooling in the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) compared to September's significant surge ^[2]^[3]^[4]^[13]. In September 2026, headline CPI increased by 0.6% month-over-month ^[2]^[3]^[4]. This substantial rise was largely driven by a 5.2% surge in the US energy index and a 9.1% jump in gasoline prices month-over-month ^[2]^[3]^[4]. These increases were attributed to geopolitical conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz ^[2]^[3]^[4]. Analysts widely characterize this September energy spike as transitory and mean-reverting, given that energy prices generally lack a strong trend component ^[13]^[3]^[4].

Forecasts and prediction markets strongly suggest a modest October CPI increase. For October, forecasts and prediction markets anticipate a monthly increase in the 0.2% to 0.3% range ^[3]^[4]^[1]^[6], a sharp contrast to September's 0.6% rise ^[2]^[3]^[4]. Market confidence suggests that a repeat of September's energy spike is unlikely, with gasoline price mean reversion expected to contribute to a lower monthly CPI figure ^[4]^[6]^[8]^[10]. TD Securities specifically predicts October 2026 headline CPI to cool to +0.30% month-over-month, down from September's 0.65% ^[3]^[4]. The Cleveland Fed nowcast, updated November 3, 2026, places October 2026 CPI at 0.24% month-over-month ^[1]. Prediction market analysis, including Kalshi as of early November 2026, indicates a 62-65% probability of CPI being above 0.2% and a 15-19% probability of being above 0.3% ^[5]^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9]^[10]^[11]^[12].

Monthly CPI cooling masks a stable year-over-year rate. While the monthly CPI is set to cool significantly, the year-over-year CPI is projected to remain near 3.7% ^[6]^[1]. This sustained annual rate is primarily due to the high base effect established in September 2026 ^[6]^[1]. A key question for the future remains whether the energy cost increases observed will translate into sustained inflationary pressures in core commodities and services ^[13]^[3]^[4].

Sources (13)

9. Why will the BLS not publish 12-month CPI changes for October 2026, and how does that affect the market's focus?

Estimated true core year-over-year inflation	Roughly 0.25%-0.3% higher than published figures due to imputation distortion ^[1]
Kalshi market 'Above 0.1%' prediction (Nov 3-4, 2026)	92-94% ^[2]
September 2026 headline CPI month-over-month	Up 0.6% ^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]

October 2026 12-month CPI changes are deemed unreliable by the BLS. This unreliability stems from a distortion caused by a federal government shutdown in October 2025. During the data collection for October 2025, the BLS missed certain CPI data, particularly for rent and Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER), and addressed this by using carry-forward imputation, copying values from April 2025 into October 2025 ^[7]. This action artificially lowered the October 2025 index level, consequently distorting all 12-month year-over-year CPI changes until April 2026 ^[7]^[8]. It is estimated that the true core year-over-year inflation rate during this period was approximately 0.25%-0.3% higher than the published figures ^[1].

Market attention has shifted to seasonally adjusted monthly CPI changes. Given the unreliability of the 12-month figures due to the 2025 shutdown imputation, market participants are primarily focusing on the seasonally adjusted monthly change as a key indicator ^[9]. This shift is evident in the Kalshi prediction market KXCPI-26OCT, which resolves based on the single-decimal seasonally adjusted monthly CPI change ^[2]. As of November 3-4, 2026, market prices indicated probabilities of 92-94% for an increase 'Above 0.1%', 63-65% for 'Above 0.2%', and 15-17% for 'Above 0.3%' ^[2]^[10]^[11]^[12]^[13].

Recent CPI reports show cooling trends influencing market rate expectations. TD Securities anticipates that headline CPI will cool to approximately +0.30% in October 2026, following a 0.6% increase observed in September ^[5]. Gasoline has been identified as a significant swing component influencing these figures ^[5]. The September 2026 CPI report indicated a headline CPI increase of 0.6% month-over-month and a core CPI increase of 0.3% on the month ^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]. Each CPI release influences the federal funds target range, which stood at 3.75% to 4.00% as of October 19, 2026, causing markets to adjust rate expectations based on any surprises relative to consensus ^[3].

Sources (13)

10. What are the specific m/m headline CPI forecasts for October 2026 from the Cleveland Fed Nowcast and major financial institutions?

Cleveland Fed October 2026 Headline CPI Forecast	0.24% month-over-month ^[1]
TD Securities October 2026 Headline CPI Forecast	+0.30% month-over-month ^[2]^[3]
Continuum Economics October 2026 Headline CPI Forecast	0.2% month-over-month (after rounding) ^[4]^[5]

October 2026 headline CPI forecasts suggest a moderation in price increases. The Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting page, updated on November 3, 2026, projects a 0.24% month-over-month increase ^[1]. Continuum Economics closely aligns with this, expecting a 0.2% month-over-month rise after rounding (0.24% before rounding) ^[4]^[5]. TD Securities provides a slightly higher projection of +0.30% month-over-month for October 2026 headline CPI ^[2]^[3].

TD Securities' forecast reflects a notable easing from previous months. Their +0.30% month-over-month projection for October 2026 marks a decrease from the 0.65% observed in September ^[2]^[3]. This analysis cites cooling core goods, softer used-vehicle prices, and anticipated mean reversion in shelter and owners' equivalent rent as contributing factors ^[2]^[3]. For broader context, the September 2026 headline CPI had risen 0.6% month-over-month ^[6]^[3]^[7]. Continuum Economics additionally expects October 2026 core CPI to be 0.2% after rounding (0.22% before rounding), and highlights that core CPI excluding shelter is projected at +0.20%, marking a four-month low ^[4]^[5].

Sources (7)

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The October 2026 CPI report will be released on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET by the BLS, covering price changes during October 2026 ^[1]^[2]^[3]. Current forecasts suggest a moderation from September's higher inflation figures. The Cleveland Fed nowcast, as of November 3, 2026, projects October 2026 CPI at 0.24% month-over-month and 3.74% year-over-year, with core CPI at 0.21% MoM and 2.48% YoY ^[4]. TD Securities expects headline CPI to cool to about +0.30% in October and core at +0.21%, citing softer core goods, used-vehicle prices, and anticipated mean reversion in shelter costs ^[5]^[6]. Continuum Economics forecasts headline at 0.2% (0.24% before rounding) and core at 0.2% (0.22% before rounding) ^[6]. Prediction markets on Kalshi price the 'Above 0.1%' outcome for October 2026 headline CPI at 88-91%, 'Above 0.2%' at 44-65%, and 'Above 0.3%' at 11-15% ^[7]^[8]^[5]^[9]. Polymarket's October Inflation US Annual market, as of November 4, 2026, prices 3.7% YoY at 87% probability ^[10].

The September 2026 CPI print was elevated, with headline rising 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY, driven by a 9.1% gasoline surge linked to the US-Iran war that began in late February 2026 ^[11]^[12]. Core CPI also exceeded forecasts, rising 0.3% MoM and 2.6% YoY ^[11]^[12]. Gasoline remains the key swing component for the October CPI data. A sharp drop in pump prices during October represents the clearest path for the headline figure to fall below the 0.2% threshold, while continued energy strength from the US-Iran conflict would keep inflation elevated ^[5]^[12]^[13]^[14]. Kalshi prediction markets indicate inflation will remain sticky in 2026, with traders expecting headline CPI to rise 3.6% YoY in September and only a 6% chance of core inflation falling below 2.2% ^[15].

This CPI release is one of two remaining CPI prints before the FOMC's final meeting of 2026 on December 8-9, making it a significant influence on the Fed's year-end policy decisions ^[3]^[16]. After the hot September CPI, futures priced a 49-54% chance of another hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, with over 96% odds of a rate rise before year-end and a near 50-50 chance of a half-point increase by December ^[11]^[12]^[17]. A hotter-than-expected CPI print would push rate-hike odds higher, raise Treasury yields, strengthen the US dollar, and weigh on equities and gold ^[11]^[18]^[3]. Conversely, a cooler print would support stocks, bonds, and a weaker dollar ^[11]^[18]^[3]. The S&P 500 fell 1.1% and the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.0% on the September CPI release day (Oct 14, 2026), illustrating market sensitivity to CPI surprises in the current hawkish Fed environment ^[18].

Key Dates & Catalysts

Expiration: February 09, 2027
Closes: November 10, 2026

Sources (18)

12. Keep Exploring

More Inflation markets See more inflation setups in the same theme. Browse all Economics markets Keep exploring adjacent economics markets. Track this in the app Open the live app flow and keep following this market in real time.

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 11 resolved YES, 9 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

KXCPI-26SEP-T0.9: NO (Oct 14, 2026)
KXCPI-26SEP-T0.8: NO (Oct 14, 2026)
KXCPI-26SEP-T0.7: NO (Oct 14, 2026)
KXCPI-26AUG-T1.0: NO (Sep 11, 2026)
KXCPI-26AUG-T0.9: NO (Sep 11, 2026)

CPI in October

Short Answer

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

3. Significant Price Movements

Outcome: Above 0.2%

📈 November 02, 2026: 11.0pp spike

Outcome: Above 0.4%

📈 October 30, 2026: 11.0pp spike

Outcome: Above 0.1%

📈 October 22, 2026: 14.0pp spike

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

5. Trust Index

6. What evidence supports the consensus view that shelter inflation will continue to moderate in the October 2026 BLS report?

7. How will the October 2026 CPI release on November 10 influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at the December 2026 FOMC meeting?

8. How do October's energy price trends compare with the surge seen in September 2026, and what does this imply for the headline CPI reading?

9. Why will the BLS not publish 12-month CPI changes for October 2026, and how does that affect the market's focus?

10. What are the specific m/m headline CPI forecasts for October 2026 from the Cleveland Fed Nowcast and major financial institutions?

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

13. Historical Resolutions

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company

Short Answer

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome: Above 0.2%

📈 November 02, 2026: 11.0pp spike

Outcome: Above 0.4%

📈 October 30, 2026: 11.0pp spike

Outcome: Above 0.1%

📈 October 22, 2026: 14.0pp spike

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

Unemployment in October

PPI YoY in October

US jobs revisions in the report covering October 2026

Will AI be the #1 reason for job cuts in October?

Sephora Credit Card Spend in October

Film & TV Streaming Ad Spend in October

Klarna Credit Card Spend in October 2026

Temu Credit Card Spend in October

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company