PPI YoY in September
Short Answer
Producer Price Index year-over-year for September 2026 is likely to be above 5.3%, following August's 5.4% increase and amid persistent inflationary pressures, priced by the market at 96.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market's price trajectory is overwhelmingly a reaction to a single data release. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' announcement on September 10, 2026, that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August rose 5.4% year-over-year was the sole driver of the price movement. This figure, reported to have exceeded market expectations, prompted traders to sharply increase the probability of a high PPI reading for the following month.
The market repriced in two distinct phases based on this news. An initial 28-point spike occurred on September 10, the day of the release. This was followed by a larger 44-point spike two days later on September 12, suggesting a delayed or secondary wave of reaction to the inflation data. Trading volume of 250 contracts on September 11, situated between the two price jumps, indicates conviction behind the market's initial upward move.
- PPI YoY in September likely stays above 5.3%, mirroring August's 5.4% baseline.
- A strong surge above 5.6% is less probable; September energy trends are mixed.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5.6% | 70.0% | 59.7% | Mixed September energy trends and lacking new drivers suggest less PPI acceleration beyond August. |
| Above 5.3% | 96.0% | 94.9% | August's 5.4% PPI rise, driven by energy, establishes a high baseline for September figures. |
| Above 5.8% | 23.0% | 17.7% | Mixed September energy trends and lacking new drivers suggest less PPI acceleration beyond August. |
| Above 5.5% | 87.0% | 84.7% | Mixed September energy trends and lacking new drivers suggest less PPI acceleration beyond August. |
| Above 4.7% | 91.0% | 95.5% | August's 5.4% PPI rise, driven by energy, establishes a high baseline for September figures. |
Current Context
US wholesale inflation increased 5.4% year-over-year in August 2026. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 5.4% year-over-year (YoY) in August 2026; sources [^][^][^][^] reported alignment with market expectations. Released on September 10, 2026, this data also showed a 0.4% month-over-month increase in final demand, primarily driven by a 4.2% rebound in energy prices [^][^][^]. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, advanced 4.6% YoY. When food, energy, and trade services were all excluded, the core index rose 4.7% YoY [^][^].
Energy-driven cost pressures heighten expectations for a Fed rate hike. Increased energy costs intensify Federal Reserve scrutiny of inflation ahead of policy decisions [^][^]. Market expectations currently point toward a potential 25 basis point rate hike at the September 2026 FOMC meeting [^][^]. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Producer Price Index data for September 2026 on October 15, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET [^][^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 5.5%
📈 September 12, 2026: 71.0pp spike
Price increased from 16.0% to 87.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 71.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market price was the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' announcement on September 10, 2026, that the August 2026 Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 5.4% year-over-year [^]. This official data release immediately preceded market commentators reporting a surge in the implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike to approximately 71.4% for the September 15–16, 2026 meeting [^]. This significant increase in expected monetary tightening due to inflation concerns appears to have driven the prediction market's price movement, which coincided with and lagged slightly behind the economic data and subsequent market analysis. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, mostly noise, or irrelevant in this instance, as no relevant activity was found.
Outcome: Above 5.4%
📈 September 11, 2026: 63.0pp spike
Price increased from 2.0% to 65.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the prediction market's 63.0 percentage point spike was the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' announcement on September 10, 2026, that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August 2026 rose 5.4% year-over-year [^][^]. This official data release, which reported a significant monthly spike in diesel fuel and an annualized rate for energy producer prices reaching a 63% increase, dramatically heightened expectations for the subsequent September PPI to exceed 5.4% [^][^]. The market movement on September 11, 2026, occurred the day after the August PPI report, indicating traditional news led the adjustment. No evidence of social media activity from key figures or viral narratives driving this prediction market movement was found in the provided research.
Outcome: Above 5.3%
📈 September 10, 2026: 28.0pp spike
Price increased from 24.0% to 52.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price movement was the official release of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for August 2026 on September 10, 2026 [^]. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the PPI for final demand increased by 5.4% year-over-year, which exceeded the market expectation of 5.3% [^]. This data directly supported the "Above 5.3%" outcome, prompting an increase in its probability. There is no evidence of a 28.0 percentage point spike specifically associated with this market or event in the provided research, as the reported PPI increase was 5.4% [^]. Social media activity was irrelevant, as no posts from key figures or viral narratives were found in the research.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A YES contract resolves if the Producer Price Index (PPI) Year-over-Year (YoY) for September is above the specified percentage (e.g., 5.7%), while a NO contract resolves if the PPI YoY for September is at or below that percentage. The market begins on October 15, 7:30am EDT, and the maximum payout date is October 15, 2026. No other special settlement conditions are mentioned.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5.3% | $0.98 | $0.25 | 96% |
| Above 5.4% | $0.96 | $0.25 | 95% |
| Above 4.8% | $0.98 | $0.12 | 93% |
| Above 4.7% | $0.98 | $0.09 | 91% |
| Above 4.9% | $0.98 | $0.24 | 91% |
| Above 5.0% | $0.97 | $0.24 | 87% |
| Above 5.5% | $0.87 | $0.25 | 87% |
| Above 5.2% | $0.98 | $0.19 | 86% |
| Above 5.1% | $0.98 | $0.15 | 84% |
| Above 5.6% | $0.88 | $0.31 | 70% |
| Above 5.7% | $0.73 | $0.58 | 59% |
| Above 5.8% | $0.27 | $0.76 | 23% |
| Above 5.9% | $0.24 | $0.96 | 0% |
| Above 6.0% | $0.24 | $0.96 | 0% |
| Above 6.1% | $0.19 | $0.97 | 0% |
| Above 6.2% | $0.16 | $0.97 | 0% |
Market Discussion
The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for August 2026, released on September 10, 2026, showed a 5.4% year-over-year increase, which was higher than expectations and attributed primarily to geopolitical supply shocks affecting energy costs [^]. Prediction markets reflect high conviction in elevated inflationary prints for the September 2026 PPI [^]. The official September 2026 PPI data is scheduled for publication on October 15, 2026 [^].
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score77Good
Market integrity is low (65), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score42High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score70Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. How could the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at the September 2026 FOMC meeting influence producer pricing behavior for the remainder of the month?
| Expected Fed Interest Rate Decision | September 16, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Market Probability of Rate Increase | 25 basis point increase [^][^] |
| Producer Price Response Speed | Relatively slow and persistent adjustment [^][^][^][^] |
The Federal Reserve's September 2026 interest rate decision anticipates a hike. The decision, expected on September 16, 2026, is poised to influence producer pricing primarily by altering the cost of capital for businesses and adjusting broader inflation expectations [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Current market sentiment suggests a strong likelihood of a 25 basis point interest rate increase at this meeting [^][^]. Historically, elevated interest rates tend to exert sustained pressure on overall economic activity [^].
Producer prices show slow adjustment despite monetary policy changes. While shifts in interest rates do affect aggregate demand and marginal costs, thereby influencing firms' pricing strategies and the pass-through of costs to prices, producer prices typically demonstrate a slow and persistent pattern of adjustment [^][^]. Analysis of disaggregated Producer Price Index (PPI) components reveals minimal immediate movement following a monetary policy shock [^][^][^][^]. Furthermore, firms' pricing decisions are also significantly shaped by factors beyond monetary policy, such as the strength of demand, labor and non-labor costs, competitive market pressures, and internal profit margin targets [^].
7. What are the September 2026 YoY PPI forecasts from major institutions like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and PNC Economics?
| Major Bank Sep 2026 YoY PPI Forecast | Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and PNC Economics have not publicly released specific numerical forecasts [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Kalshi Sep 2026 YoY PPI Probability | 90% implied probability of exceeding 4.7% [^] |
| Unofficial August 2026 PPI Reports | Social media reports of 5.4% YoY are unverified [^][^] |
Major institutions have not released September 2026 YoY PPI forecasts. As of September 13, 2026, leading financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and PNC Economics, have not publicly released specific year-over-year (YoY) Producer Price Index (PPI) numerical forecasts for September 2026 [^][^][^][^]. While PNC Economics did publish a Weekly Economic Roundup on September 8, 2026, this report primarily discussed August data and noted the uncertainty regarding the translation of September PPI and CPI figures into core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), but did not provide a precise numerical forecast for September 2026 YoY PPI [^].
Prediction markets and unverified reports offer some September 2026 indicators. In the absence of specific institutional forecasts, the Kalshi prediction market for the September 2026 YoY Producer Price Index suggests a 90% implied probability that the final figure will exceed 4.7% [^]. It is also important to note that circulating reports on social media suggesting August 2026 PPI rose to 5.4% YoY are not official Bureau of Labor Statistics releases nor verified institutional forecasts for September [^][^].
8. How do consensus estimates for September 2026's Producer Price Index (PPI) compare with the forecasts for the September 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI)?
| Probability of US PPI YoY > 4.7% (Sept 2026) | 90% (as of September 11, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Headline CPI (August 2026) | 3.4% YoY (released September 11, 2026) [^] |
| Core CPI (August 2026) | 2.4% YoY (released September 11, 2026) [^] |
Major market data sources do not yet show widespread consensus estimates for the September 2026 Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) as of September 13, 2026, since these estimates typically become available closer to the official release dates [^] , [^] . However, specific prediction market data offers an early indication. As of September 11, 2026, prediction markets on Kalshi suggest a 90% probability that the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) year-over-year change for September 2026 will exceed 4.7% [^]. For context, the August 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released on September 11, 2026, showed headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core CPI at 2.4% year-over-year [^].
Elevated PPI levels are a concern for future consumer inflation trends. Current year-over-year CPI figures remain notably lower than current PPI year-over-year levels, which stood at 4.7% as of August 2026 [^], [^]. Analysts are expressing concern that elevated PPI, influenced by factors such as energy prices and tariffs, could hinder the progress of core CPI and potentially lead to a re-acceleration of consumer inflation [^]. The official release for the September 2026 PPI is scheduled for October 15, 2026, while the September 2026 CPI is set to be released on October 14, 2026 [^], [^], [^].
9. Which specific sub-components of the Producer Price Index, beyond final demand for energy and food, showed the most volatility in Q3 2026?
| Fuels & Lubricants Margin Surge | 13% in June 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Processed Goods Rise | 1.8% as of August 2026 [^] |
| September 2026 PPI YoY | 5.4% in early September [^][^][^][^] |
Trade services and industrial inputs showed significant Q3 volatility. Notably, trade services, specifically the margins for fuels and lubricants retailing, demonstrated considerable volatility, building on a 13% surge recorded in June 2026 [^]. Industrial inputs also exhibited volatility, with processed goods seeing an increase of 1.8% and unprocessed goods rising by 1.1% as of August 2026 [^].
Overall producer price inflation showed notable increases. The wholesale level of inflation, as measured by the Producer Price Index for August, rose by 0.4% [^]. Furthermore, the year-over-year headline reading for the September 2026 Producer Price Index was reported at 5.4% in early September, which surpassed consensus expectations [^][^][^][^].
10. How do September 2026 energy price trends (WTI, Natural Gas) compare to the 4.2% energy price rebound that drove the August 2026 PPI increase?
| August 2026 Energy Price Rebound | 4.2% (impacted August PPI increase) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| WTI Crude Oil Price | Around $97/bbl (September 9, 2026) [^] |
| Natural Gas Storage | 4.8% above five-year average (early September 2026) [^][^] |
The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.4% month-over-month in August 2026, primarily driven by a significant 4.2% rebound in energy prices after two months of declines [^] [^] [^] . Producer Prices Boosted by Rebound in Energy Prices in August">[^][^][^]. This contrasted with September 2026, where West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices displayed volatility, reaching around $97 per barrel on September 9, 2026 [^][^]. An earlier sell-off in WTI had occurred in early August due to geopolitical events concerning the Strait of Hormuz [^].
Conversely, natural gas prices in September 2026 remained relatively stable, mostly trading below $3.00 per MMBtu [^] . This stability was supported by robust storage levels, which in early September 2026 were 4.8% above the five-year average [^][^]. Lower demand forecasts also contributed to the overall stability of natural gas prices during this period [^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Prediction markets indicate significant implied probabilities favoring elevated PPI year-over-year inflation for September 2026, with levels well above 4.7% and 3.2% as of mid-September 2026 [^] [^] [^] . - ForecastEx Odds | CoinRithm" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^]. Market sentiment is largely bearish regarding inflation, with analysts highlighting that elevated producer prices threaten to embed into consumer inflation (CPI) and core PCE [^][^][^][^][^]. This would increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain or raise interest rates [^][^][^][^][^].
Primary catalysts for recent producer price inflation include sharp increases in energy costs, particularly diesel fuel [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . The Fed Should Stop Dilly-Dallying Around | Wolf Street" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^][^][^]. Concerns over renewed geopolitical conflicts, such as those in the Middle East, and tariff policies impacting supply chains also contribute to inflationary pressures [^][^][^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: October 22, 2026
- Closes: October 15, 2026
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scheduled to release the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report for September 2026 on Thursday, October 15, 2026, at 8:30 a.m.
- Trigger: ET [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This will be the official release detailing producer price movements [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Prediction markets indicate significant implied probabilities favoring elevated PPI year-over-year inflation for September 2026, with levels well above 4.7% and 3.2% as of mid-September 2026 [^] [^] [^] .
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 18 resolved YES, 2 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXUSPPIYOY-26SEP10-T5.5: NO (Sep 10, 2026)
- KXUSPPIYOY-26SEP10-T5.4: NO (Sep 10, 2026)
- KXUSPPIYOY-26SEP10-T5.3: YES (Sep 10, 2026)
- KXUSPPIYOY-26SEP10-T5.2: YES (Sep 10, 2026)
- KXUSPPIYOY-26SEP10-T5.1: YES (Sep 10, 2026)
