U.S. oil production per day in 2026
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect U.S. oil production per day in 2026 to be at least 13.75M bpd, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This prediction market has experienced a dramatic and rapid upward trend, moving from a low of 1.0% to a current high of 97.0% probability. The price action is characterized by a nearly vertical ascent over a short period. A significant price movement was a 9.0 percentage point spike on March 20, 2026, which pushed the probability from 88.0% to 97.0%. This surge directly reflects the market's reaction to new fundamental data. Specifically, the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook, released just prior to the move, revised its 2026 U.S. oil production forecast upward, aligning with the positive outcome for this market. Traders quickly priced in this official government forecast, causing the sharp increase in perceived probability.
The total traded volume is extremely low, at just one contract. This suggests that while the price movement has been decisive, it reflects very limited market participation and conviction. Such thin trading activity means the price can be easily influenced by a small number of trades and may not represent a broad consensus. Due to the rapid, one-directional movement and sparse data, traditional support and resistance levels have not been established. The key price points are simply the floor at 1.0% and the current ceiling near 97.0%. Overall, the chart indicates an overwhelmingly bullish market sentiment, treating the outcome as a near-certainty. This sentiment is almost entirely pegged to the recent EIA report, but the lack of significant trading volume is a critical factor, indicating the current price is fragile and based on a minimal number of market participants.
- EIA forecasts U.S. oil production to average 13.6 million bpd in 2026.
- EIA's 2026 oil forecast of 13.6 million bpd is below market expectation.
- Permian Basin growth, led by Exxon, significantly boosts U.S. crude production.
- New Gulf of Mexico and Alaska projects bolster U.S. crude oil production.
- Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions could spike oil prices.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 14.40M bpd | 30.0% | 14.7% | The EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production to average 13.6 million bpd in 2026. |
| At least 14.10M bpd | 63.0% | 38.4% | The EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production to average 13.6 million bpd in 2026. |
| At least 14.00M bpd | 78.0% | 56.0% | The EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production to average 13.6 million bpd in 2026. |
| At least 14.25M bpd | 47.0% | 25.2% | The EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production to average 13.6 million bpd in 2026. |
| At least 13.80M bpd | 92.0% | 80.3% | EIA forecasts 13.6 million bpd for 2026, below common market expectations. |
Current Context
The latest EIA outlook predicts stable U.S. oil production for 2026. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook from March 2026, U.S. crude oil production is expected to average 13.6 million barrels per day in 2026, remaining unchanged from 2025 levels [1]. This projection follows earlier EIA outlooks that presented varying forecasts. For instance, the December 2025 outlook had anticipated a slight decrease to 13.5 million barrels per day [2]. The January outlook, however, maintained production near 13.6 million barrels per day, though it foresaw a subsequent drop in 2027 [3]. Meanwhile, the February outlook had suggested that lower oil prices would constrain growth in production.
Upward revisions reflect higher prices, despite production plateau concerns. Recent adjustments to the forecasts have been upward, driven by higher global oil prices, which have been influenced by tensions in the Middle East [4]. However, industry analyses suggest that despite oil prices hovering around $80-90 per barrel, U.S. crude oil production may be reaching a plateau [5]. This plateau is primarily attributed to capital discipline within the industry, limiting significant expansion even with favorable pricing.
Sources (5)
- 1Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 2EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will decrease slightly in 2026 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 3EIA forecasts near-term U.S. crude oil production will remain near 2025 record - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 4U.S. energy agency ups forecast of American oil and gas outputfinance.yahoo.com
- 5Why Won't Higher Oil Prices Spur More U.S. Production in 2026kavout.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: At least 13.90M bpd
📈 March 21, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 80.0% to 90.0%
What happened: Based on available research, there is no evidence of a 10.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for "U.S. oil production per day in 2026: At least 13.90M bpd" around March 21, 2026. Current U.S. crude oil production is approximately 13.67M bpd, and the EIA's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts an average of 13.7M bpd for 2026, with Q4 2026 projected at 13.8M bpd, all remaining below 13.90M bpd [1]. No social media activity from key figures or traditional news announcements were identified that would explain such a significant upward price movement for this outcome. Therefore, social media was (d) irrelevant, as no event requiring a driver was found in the provided sources.
Outcome: At least 13.75M bpd
📈 March 20, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 88.0% to 97.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price movement was traditional news signaling increased U.S. oil production expectations for 2026. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Short-Term Energy Outlook on March 10, 2026, upwardly revising its 2026 annual average forecast for U.S. crude oil production to 13.6 million bpd, driven by sustained high oil prices from Middle East conflict [2]. This upward revision, reinforced by news on March 19-20 that US drillers were adding oil rigs for the second consecutive week as prices soared, likely increased confidence that 2026 production could reach "at least 13.75M bpd" [3]. Social media was (d) irrelevant, as no relevant activity was identified in the provided sources.
Outcome: At least 14.10M bpd
📈 March 19, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 52.0% to 61.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point price spike on March 19, 2026, was the release of the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) [4]. News outlets reported that the EIA had "upped forecast[s] of American oil and gas output" [5] and "significantly lift[ed] [its] 2027 US Oil Forecast" [6], with higher oil prices contributing to expectations of increased USA production [7]. This revised outlook, signaling a stronger upward trajectory for future production, boosted market confidence in the "At least 14.10M bpd" outcome for 2026. No significant social media activity from key figures or viral narratives was identified as leading or coinciding with this movement. Social media was (d) irrelevant.
Outcome: At least 13.80M bpd
📉 March 18, 2026: 15.0pp drop
Price decreased from 99.0% to 84.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 15.0 percentage point drop was the release of the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) on March 18, 2026. This report showed U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.668 million bpd for the week ending March 13, 2026, falling below the "At least 13.80M bpd" outcome threshold and reinforcing the EIA's March Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecast of 13.6 million bpd for 2026 [8]. The downward adjustment in current production figures made the higher 2026 target less probable. Social media activity was irrelevant, as no specific catalyst was found for the price movement.
Sources (8)
- 1Crude Oil Domestic Productioneia.gov
- 2Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 3US Drillers Add Oil Rigs For Second Week In A Row As Prices Soarfinance.yahoo.com
- 4Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 5U.S. energy agency ups forecast of American oil and gas output | National News | kpvi.comkpvi.com
- 6EIA Significantly Lifts 2027 US Oil Forecast Amid Mideast Turmoil | Whalesbookwhalesbook.com
- 7Higher Oil Prices Lead to More USA Production in EIA Forecast | Rigzonerigzone.com
- 8Weekly Petroleum Status Report Archiveseia.gov
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to Yes if U.S. oil production reaches at least 14.10 million barrels per day (M bpd) at any point between the market's issuance and January 1, 2027; otherwise, it resolves to No. The market opened on March 11, 2026, and will close early upon the event's occurrence or by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 pm EST. Resolutions will be based on data from sources such as the U.S. Energy Information Administration and various news outlets, with 1,000 thousand bpd equaling 1.00M bpd.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 13.75M bpd | $0.97 | $0.12 | 97% |
| At least 13.80M bpd | $0.94 | $0.16 | 92% |
| At least 13.90M bpd | $0.90 | $0.19 | 90% |
| At least 14.00M bpd | $0.77 | $0.31 | 78% |
| At least 14.10M bpd | $0.63 | $0.46 | 63% |
| At least 14.25M bpd | $0.47 | $0.63 | 47% |
| At least 14.40M bpd | $0.30 | $0.78 | 30% |
Market Discussion
U.S. crude oil production is currently around 13.7 million barrels per day (b/d), with the EIA's March 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasting a 2026 annual average of 13.6 million b/d, projected to be flat from 2025 as higher prices support Permian output but are offset by declines elsewhere [1]. Conversely, a prediction market indicates greater optimism for higher full-year output, with a high probability (~99%) for at least 13.80 million b/d and ~43% for 14.25 million b/d, reflecting trader sentiment for increased production amid elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions [2].
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score81Good
Trade quality20% of score33High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score72Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What are Permian Basin Capital Expenditure and Rig Plans for 2026?
| ExxonMobil Permian Growth | 12.5% Permian oil production growth, ~113 Mb/d increase [1] |
|---|---|
| Chevron Total 2026 Capex | $18-19 billion, with >$5B for US shale/tight [2] |
| EOG Permian Rigs/Crews | Average 13 rigs and 4 completion crews (Permian Delaware) [3] |
ExxonMobil leads Permian growth while others prioritize efficiency. Detailed Q1 and Q2 2026 capital expenditure and deployment plans for the Permian Basin are not explicitly provided by most major producers; however, annual 2026 guidance offers insight into their strategies. ExxonMobil projects a significant 12.5% Permian oil production growth in 2026, equating to an increase of approximately 113 thousand barrels per day (Mb/d) [1], a notable expansion compared to other companies' modest or flat projections. ConocoPhillips plans for a total 2026 capital expenditure of approximately $12 billion, where efficiency gains in the Lower 48 contribute to a $0.6 billion year-over-year reduction [4]. Their Permian strategy emphasizes longer laterals, aiming for 90% of wells to exceed 2 miles by 2026 [4].
Other major producers project stable Permian output with efficiency gains. Chevron has allocated a total capital expenditure budget of $18-19 billion for 2026, with over $5 billion directed towards US shale and tight assets, including the Permian [2]. Chevron expects its Permian production to remain flat at over 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMboe/d), with a focus on rig efficiency, which has doubled since 2022 [5]. EOG Resources has set its 2026 capital expenditure at $6.3-6.7 billion [6]. For its Permian (Delaware) operations, EOG expects to average 13 rigs and 4 completion crews; these figures contribute to their total of 24 rigs and 10 completion crews across all operations, which will complete 585 net wells [3]. Diamondback Energy's 2026 guidance indicates activity and production levels that are flat compared to Q4 2025, projecting around 500-510 Mbbl/d of oil, with an emphasis on efficiency and long laterals [Web Research Results].
Sources (6)
- 1Exxon Leads the Pack for 2026 Permian Supply Growth | East Daleyeastdaley.com
- 2Chevron Announces 2026 Capex Budget of $18 to $19 Billion — Chevronchevron.com
- 3EOG Resources Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Results; Announces 2026 Capital Planprnewswire.com
- 4ConocoPhillips: Capital Discipline in the Lower 48 Is an Engineering Story, Not a Rig Count Story – Oil Gas Leadsoilgasleads.com
- 5Chevron eyeing 7-10% output growth, more efficiency gains in 2026 | Oil & Gas Journalogj.com
- 6EOG keeping production at Q4 levels with $6.5 billion capex plan | Oil & Gas Journalogj.com
7. What is the EIA's drilling productivity outlook for 2025-2026?
| Permian New-Well Oil Production/Rig (Dec 2024) | 1,836 b/d (EIA via Statista) [1] |
|---|---|
| Permian New-Well Oil Production/Rig (May 2025) | 1,514 b/d (EIA via Statista) [1] |
| Bakken New-Well Oil Production/Rig (May 2025) | 1,756 b/d (EIA via Statista) [1] |
Direct Drilling Productivity Reports for late 2025 or early 2026 were unavailable. Since June 2024, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has integrated Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) data into its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) [2]. However, available data indicates that 'new-well oil production per rig' showed stability to slight increases through mid-2024. For example, in the Permian region, the metric rose from 1,386 barrels per day (b/d) in May 2024 to 1,400 b/d in June 2024. The Bakken region experienced a stable trend, moving from 1,745 b/d to 1,747 b/d during the same period [3]. These figures align with the year-over-year gains observed in 2023-2024, reflecting improved efficiencies in drilling operations [4].
Projections indicate a declining trend for new-well oil production per rig in 2025. According to EIA data via Statista, the Permian region is projected to see a decrease from 1,836 b/d in December 2024 to 1,514 b/d by May 2025. Similarly, the Bakken region is expected to decline from approximately 1,836 b/d in December 2024 to 1,756 b/d by May 2025 [1].
The trend shows a shift from growth to plateauing or decline. Compared to the growth experienced during the 2023-2024 period, the 'new-well oil production per rig' metric is generally plateauing to declining through late 2024 and early 2025. This shift is primarily attributed to sliding U.S. rig counts, which are beginning to outpace efficiency gains. This development potentially threatens onshore oil output and implies a slowing or plateauing of overall U.S. oil production growth into 2026 [5].
Sources (5)
- 1U.S. monthly new-well oil production per rig 2025| Statistaapi.statista.com
- 2Drilling Productivity Report - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 3https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/summary.pdfeia.gov
- 4U.S. rig counts remain low as production efficiencies improve - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 5Sliding US Rig Count Outpaces Efficiency Gains, Threatening Onshore Oil Output - Canadian Energy News, Top Headlines, Commentaries, Features & Events - EnergyNowenergynow.ca
8. What Factors Impact Permian Basin Crude Oil Production and Regulations in 2026?
| New Crude Oil Takeaway Pipelines | None announced with 2026 in-service dates [1] |
|---|---|
| Permian Crude Oil Production Growth (2026) | Approximately 2.7% or 183 Mb/d [2] |
| Key Federal EPA Methane Rule Deadlines (2026) | June 1 (flare monitoring), October 30 (GHGRP Subpart W report), November 30 (initial annual report) [3] |
Permian crude oil growth in 2026 faces natural gas takeaway limitations. No new major crude oil pipeline projects have announced 2026 in-service dates, though existing pipelines like Wink to Webster are operational at full rates and Gray Oak completed an expansion in 2025 [1]. The main constraint for Permian production growth stems from insufficient associated natural gas takeaway capacity [4]. Several natural gas pipeline projects, including Hugh Brinson, Eiger Express, and Blackcomb, are targeting late 2026 completion, which may limit crude oil production growth until the fourth quarter of 2026 [1]. Overall, Permian crude oil production is forecast for modest growth in 2026, estimated at about 2.7% or 183 Mb/d, with Exxon projected to lead this supply increase [2].
New federal EPA methane rules introduce several key compliance deadlines in 2026. The finalized NSPS OOOOb and EG OOOOc regulations, issued in 2024, establish important compliance milestones for the coming year [3]. These deadlines include June 1 for the commencement of flare monitoring, October 30 for the submission of the GHGRP Subpart W report covering 2025 emissions, and November 30 for the initial annual report [3]. The rules mandate that well completions route flowback to separators or combustion devices, prohibit routine flaring after a phase-in period, and require leak detection at sites and compressor stations [3]. While these measures are not expected to halt operations, the new compliance burdens for monitoring and reporting could introduce regulatory uncertainty and potentially cause delays for well completions, indirectly affecting Permian growth linked to gas infrastructure [5].
Sources (5)
- 1Key to the Highway – Pipeline Buildout Set to Unlock Permian Natural Gas Production Growth Later in 2026 | RBN Energyrbnenergy.com
- 2Exxon Leads the Pack for 2026 Permian Supply Growth | East Daleyeastdaley.com
- 3New 2026 Methane Deadlines Explained in Under 3 Minutes | Shale Magazineshalemag.com
- 4Permian Wink to Webster crude pipe back at full ratesqcintel.com
- 5Federal Methane Rules in 2026: What Oil and Gas Operators Need to Do Nowmontrose-env.com
9. Are Shell's Whale and Chevron's Anchor Projects on Track for 2026?
| Shell Whale First Oil | January 2025 [1] |
|---|---|
| Chevron Anchor Production Start | August 2024 [2] |
| Chevron GoM 2026 Target | 300,000 net boe/d [3] |
Gulf of Mexico deepwater projects are progressing on schedule for 2026 production. Shell's Whale and Chevron's Anchor deepwater projects are reportedly on track for their scheduled production ramp-up profiles, contributing to 2026 targets, with no indications of delays impacting 2026 production contributions [3]. Shell's Whale achieved first oil in January 2025, which, while a slight delay from an initial anticipation of late 2024, was consistent with expectations following its Final Investment Decision adjustment [1]. Chevron's Anchor project commenced production earlier in August 2024, marking an industry-first for deepwater technology [2].
Operator reports confirm steady ramp-up, supporting significant 2026 production targets. Operator reports from late 2025 and early 2026 affirm Whale's expected contribution to peak production goals [3]. Chevron confirmed Anchor's ramp-up is progressing as planned during its Q4 2025 earnings call in January 2026 [3]. The company stated that its Gulf of Mexico production was performing in line with or better than guidance, indicating a robust ongoing ramp-up across its portfolio, including Anchor [3]. Chevron is actively advancing toward its target of 300,000 net barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) for Gulf of Mexico production by 2026, with these projects being central to achieving regional production and overall company output growth targets [3].
10. Will U.S. Crude Oil Production Meet 2026 Targets?
| H1 2026 YTD Average | Not yet officially available (as of March 24, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Recent Weekly Production (early 2026) | Around 13.7 mbpd, declining to 13.67 mbpd (mid-March) [2] |
| EIA Full-Year 2026 Forecast | 13.6 mbpd (March STEO) [1] |
Precise H1 2026 production data is not yet available from the EIA. As of March 24, 2026, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has not released its official monthly crude oil production estimates for the first half of 2026 (January-June). However, available weekly estimates indicate U.S. crude oil production was around 13.7 million barrels per day (mbpd) in early 2026, subsequently declining to approximately 13.67 mbpd by mid-March [2].
EIA forecasts project 2026 crude production will miss its 13.80 mbpd target. The EIA's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released in March, forecasts a full-year 2026 average crude oil production of 13.6 mbpd [1]. This projection falls below the trajectory required to achieve a full-year average of at least 13.80 mbpd. Previous STEOs also consistently projected full-year averages ranging from 13.3 mbpd to 13.6 mbpd, remaining below the 13.80 mbpd threshold [3]. Therefore, current trends from weekly data and official EIA outlooks suggest the full-year average for 2026 will be closer to 13.6-13.7 mbpd, rather than reaching or exceeding 13.80 mbpd [1].
Sources (3)
- 1Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 2EIA forecasts near-term U.S. crude oil production will remain near 2025 record - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 3EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will decrease slightly in 2026 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Geopolitical developments, particularly escalating tensions in the Middle East (e.g., a potential US-Israel-Iran conflict) and disruptions like the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, are key upside catalysts for oil prices. Such events have historically led to significant price spikes, as observed with Brent crude reaching $94/b following a conflict in late February 2026, prompting upward revisions in U.S. crude oil production forecasts from earlier conservative estimates [1].
On the supply side, strong growth in the Permian Basin, spearheaded by companies like Exxon with projected increases of 12.5%, along with new projects in the Gulf of Mexico (Nuna) and Alaska (Pikka), are expected to bolster U.S. crude production. However, overall Permian growth is anticipated to be more modest at 2.7%, and the depletion of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells could temper output expansion. Conversely, if global demand weakens or if OPEC+ decides to increase its production beyond the initial 206k b/d planned for April 2026, these factors could exert downward pressure on prices and U.S. production incentives [1].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 07, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 4 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 4 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBARRELS-25-16000000: NO (Dec 31, 2025)
- KXBARRELS-25-15000000: NO (Dec 31, 2025)
- KXBARRELS-25-14500000: NO (Dec 31, 2025)
- KXBARRELS-25-14000000: NO (Dec 31, 2025)
