US shelter CPI in April 2026

CoreLogic forecasts significant deceleration in single-family rent growth by 2025. CoreLogic's research department projects the CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index to reach 1.2% year-over-year by December 2025 ^[1]. A specific Q4 2025 forecast for year-over-year growth in the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) from Zillow's research department is not available in the provided sources, though Zillow economists anticipate the broader housing market will warm up in 2026 ^[4].

Forecasted rent growth significantly decreases from 2022 peak levels. The projected 1.2% growth rate for the CoreLogic index in late 2025 indicates a return to growth rates substantially below recent peaks and long-term trend rates ^[2]. For context, the CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index reached its highest annual growth rate at 14% nationally in February 2022 ^[2]. Similarly, the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) peaked at 16.9% year-over-year in February 2022 ^[3].

CoStar Group projects 388,500 multifamily unit completions for 2025, marking a moderation from the previous year. This forecast follows an anticipated strong year in 2024, for which CoStar predicts 495,200 completions ^[1]. The expected slowdown from 2024 to 2025 indicates a cooling trend in the market's rapid growth ^[1].

The 2025 multifamily completion projection surpasses the long-term historical average. CoStar Group notes the 10-year annual average for multifamily completions has been around 300,000 units ^[1]. The 2025 forecast of 388,500 units is approximately 29.5% higher than this long-term average. CoStar characterizes this figure as a moderation towards more typical long-term levels, despite being above the historical average ^[1].

These forecasts rely on foundational data regarding new residential construction and pipeline. Underlying these projections are data from sources such as the US Census Bureau's 'New Residential Construction' reports, which detail units under construction and historical completion rates ^[2], ^[3]. While the construction pipeline has been robust, leading to elevated near-term completions, forecasters anticipate a gradual return to more typical levels after the peak projected for 2024 ^[4], ^[5].

The January 2026 Federal Funds Rate is implied by SOFR futures. As of December 2025, the market's expectation for the Federal Funds Rate at the January 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is derived from an analysis of Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) futures contract pricing ^[1]. Direct insight comes from the 1-Month SOFR January 2026 futures contract, which indicates the expected average overnight funding rate for that month ^[2]. Additionally, Three-Month SOFR futures offer a broader view of short-term interest rate expectations leading up to the January meeting ^[4]. The implied rate from these futures, serving as a proxy for market consensus, is typically calculated by subtracting the future's price from 100 ^[1]. However, based on the provided research, a specific numerical implied Federal Funds Rate for January 2026 as of December 2025 cannot be precisely stated.

Market expectations for early 2026 rates rose since mid-2024. A notable "upward shift" in the market-implied path of 3-month SOFR was observed when comparing projections from mid-2024 to those in December 2025 ^[3]. This shift indicates that by December 2025, market participants were anticipating a higher trajectory for interest rates in early 2026 than their earlier projections ^[3]. This adjustment reflects the market's evolving assessment of economic conditions, the inflation outlook, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, as also influenced by communications such as FOMC minutes ^[5].

The BLS has not announced specific OER methodological changes before April 2026. The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirms no upcoming methodological changes to the collection or imputation of data specifically for the Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) component are scheduled for implementation prior to April 2026. This includes explicit statements that no changes to Consumer Price Index (CPI) data collection, calculation, or aggregation methods were planned for 2024, encompassing housing services like OER ^[1]. Similarly, for 2025, the BLS anticipates no changes to CPI data collection, calculation, or aggregation methods related to housing services, meaning the Rent of primary residence and Owners' equivalent rent of primary residence components remain unchanged in their methodology ^[2].

Upcoming CPI adjustments are presentational or routine, not methodological shifts. While there are no OER methodological changes, the BLS will implement a rebasing of selected Consumer Price Index (CPI) series to 1982-84=100. This change is effective with the release of January 2026 data, scheduled for February 2026, but is described as a change in presentation rather than an alteration to the underlying data or methodology ^[3]. Furthermore, the BLS routinely updates the weights for Rent of primary residence and Owners' Equivalent Rent of primary residence annually, using a two-year lag. This constitutes an ongoing process and is not considered a new methodological change in data collection or imputation ^[4].

The Congressional Budget Office has not released its January 2026 'Economic Outlook'. Consequently, the precise quarterly average projections for the CPI-U Shelter index for the first and second quarters of 2026, which would be included in this report, are not publicly available from the CBO at this time ^[1].

The CBO routinely publishes economic outlooks with varying future scopes. For example, the office issued its "Current View of the Economy From 2025 to 2027" in December 2024 ^[2] and "Additional Information About the Economic Outlook: 2025 to 2035" in January 2025 ^[3]. However, these earlier publications predate the January 2026 report and therefore do not contain the updated projections anticipated for that forthcoming document. It is not possible to cite CBO projections from a report that has not yet been published.