Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast for 2027

The 2027 Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast projects 49.31 million fish. The Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) issued this official forecast on November 6, 2026, with a range of 35.47–63.14 million ^[1][2]. This estimate stands 3% below the 20-year average of 50.96 million but 31% above the long-term 1963–2026 average of 37.56 million ^[1][2]. ADF&G projects a harvestable surplus of 35.26 million fish, split between 33.97 million in Bristol Bay and 1.29 million from the South Peninsula June fishery ^[1][2]. Earlier, on August 18, 2026, the University of Washington Fisheries Research Institute (UW-FRI) released a preliminary forecast of 44.2 million sockeye for 2027, with an expected harvest of 28.6 million fish (158 million pounds) ^[3][4][5]. This UW-FRI projection would have ended an eleven-year streak of runs above 50 million fish; the subsequent ADF&G forecast of 49.31 million revised this expectation upward ^[3][4][5]. NOAA and ADF&G surface trawl surveys from 2025 independently project a 2027 run of 44.8 to 48.3 million fish, corroborating the university's preliminary forecast ^[1][5]. The ADF&G forecast utilizes data from nine river systems and four age classes (ages 1.2, 1.3, 2.2, and 2.3), drawing on brood year data from 1972–2021 ^[1]. Historically, the ADF&G forecast has under-forecast the run by an average of 13% over the last two decades, with deviations ranging from 36% below in 2014 to 21% above in 2011. The mean absolute percentage error for harvestable surplus since 2007 is 16% ^[1]. The Kalshi prediction market (KXSOCKEYERUN-27), measured November 27, 2026, and settling on ADF&G data, shows a 91% probability the 2027 run will fall between 49 and 55 million fish, with a median of 51.9 million ^[6].

Forecasts detail district contributions and projected catch characteristics. The 2027 run is forecasted by district as follows: Naknek-Kvichak 15.28 million, Egegik 12.23 million, Nushagak 15.00 million, Ugashik 6.44 million, and Togiak 0.36 million ^[1][2]. All systems are expected to meet their spawning escapement goals in 2027 ^[1][2]. Daniel Schindler of the University of Washington noted the 2027 run will consist of approximately 20 million three-ocean fish and 30 million two-ocean fish, implying a smaller overall catch weight despite potentially higher numbers ^[7][8][9]. Fisheries economist Gunner Knapp anticipates stable prices in 2027, driven by reduced inventory from the 2026 harvest, which was 36% lower than the preceding year ^[7][8][9]. The 2026 Bristol Bay inshore sockeye run totaled 45.7 million fish, which was 4% above the 44.1 million forecast but 8% below the 20-year average ^[2]. The 2026 commercial harvest yielded 30.1 million sockeye, with a preliminary exvessel value of $264.0 million, as sockeye averaged $1.72/lb at 5.03 lb ^[2]. The commercial Bristol Bay sockeye fishery typically operates from June 17 through August or mid-September ^[10][11][12]. In 2026, the Nushagak District opening was delayed until June 27 to allow for upriver escapement of king salmon ^[10][11]. The run midpoint in 2026 occurred around July 3-4, about three days earlier than the long-term average ^[10][11].

The Bristol Bay fishery represents a significant economic driver. In 2019, the commercial fishery generated approximately $2 billion in economic impact and supported 15,000 jobs, according to McKinley Research Group ^{[7][13][14][15]}. The industry directly employs about 14,800 seasonal workers and generates $1.23 billion in economic output and $658 million in labor income annually ^{[7][13][14][15]}. Eighty-two percent of these average jobs are held by residents of other U.S. states ^{[7][13][14][15]}.