Between 37 and 42.99 million
Market Model 1.0% 0.0%
Above 55 million
Market Model 25.0% 0.0%
Jobs & Economy Markets
Active Markets (8)
Above 9%
Market Model 32.0% 12.7%
Above 10%
Market Model 20.0% 10.7%
Above 600,000 jobs
Market Model 18.0% 6.9%
Above 550,000 jobs
Market Model 23.0% 14.2%
Unemployment in November Kalshi
Above 4.1%
Market Model 66.0% 68.3%
Above 4.3%
Market Model 66.0% 62.1%
Yes
Market Model 25.0% 43.6%
Yes
Market Model 65.0% 45.0%
Stagflation
Market Model 32.8% 36.8%
Soft landing
Market Model 16.9% 29.9%
Yes
Market Model 18.0% 20.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast for 2027 Top outcome: Between 37 and 42.99 million | 1.0% | 0.0% | High | 71 | Refresh |
| How high will unemployment get before 2030? Top outcome: Above 9% | 32.0% | 12.7% | High | 60 | Refresh |
| US retail jobs added this holiday season Top outcome: Above 600,000 jobs | 18.0% | 6.9% | High | 64 | Refresh |
| Unemployment in November Top outcome: Above 4.1% | 66.0% | 68.3% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| Canadian trips to the U.S. down 20% in 2026? Yes refers to: Decline greater than 20% | 25.0% | 43.6% | Med | 65 | Refresh |
| More white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? Yes refers to: Yes | 65.0% | 45.0% | Med | 76 | Refresh |
| State of the economy at the end of 2026 Top outcome: Stagflation | 32.8% | 36.8% | High | 69 | Refresh |
| Will Michigan consumer sentiment go above 65 in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 18.0% | 20.5% | Med | 72 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (21)
Yes
Market Model — —
Unemployment in October Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
UK retail sales in May Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
US retail sales in May Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 80.0% 71.2%
Unemployment in May 2026 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Unemployment in April 2026 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Jobs numbers in Apr 2026? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | 65 | ||
| — | — | High | 69 | ||
| — | — | Med | 71 | ||
| — | — | High | 63 | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| Nvidia H200 chips delivered to China before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 80.0% | 71.2% | Med | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | Med | 75 |
