Above 2.8%
Market Model 70.0% 66.9%
Above 3.2%
Market Model 23.0% 21.1%
Jobs & Economy Markets
Active Markets (7)
Yes
Market Model 25.0% 43.6%
Yes
Market Model 65.0% 45.0%
Stagflation
Market Model 32.8% 36.8%
Soft landing
Market Model 16.9% 29.9%
Yes
Market Model 18.0% 20.5%
Above -25000
Market Model 97.0% 95.3%
Above 50000
Market Model 52.0% 41.6%
Above 9%
Market Model 52.0% 53.5%
Above 10%
Market Model 35.0% 37.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico unemployment rate in September Top outcome: Above 2.8% | 70.0% | 66.9% | High | 59 | Refresh |
| Canadian trips to the U.S. down 20% in 2026? Yes refers to: Decline greater than 20% | 25.0% | 43.6% | Med | 69 | Refresh |
| More white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? Yes refers to: Yes | 65.0% | 45.0% | Med | 73 | Refresh |
| State of the economy at the end of 2026 Top outcome: Stagflation | 32.8% | 36.8% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| Will Michigan consumer sentiment go above 65 in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 18.0% | 20.5% | Med | 71 | Refresh |
| ADP employment change in Oct 2026? Top outcome: Above -25000 | 97.0% | 95.3% | Med | 75 | Refresh |
| How high will unemployment get before 2030? Top outcome: Above 9% | 52.0% | 53.5% | High | 61 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (16)
UK retail sales in May Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
US retail sales in May Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 80.0% 71.2%
Unemployment in May 2026 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Unemployment in April 2026 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Jobs numbers in Apr 2026? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| Nvidia H200 chips delivered to China before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 80.0% | 71.2% | Med | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — |
