Above 9%
Market Model 52.0% 53.5%
Above 10%
Market Model 35.0% 37.5%
Topic tracker · Economics
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 2 so far (2 live) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Unemployment spike markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated March 30, 2026