Short Answer

The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for Canadian trips to the U.S. to decline greater than 20% in 2026. It sees potential mispricing, with this outcome at 43.6% model versus 25.0% market.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This prediction market has seen an upward trend, with the probability of Canadian trips to the U.S. falling by 20% in 2026 rising from an initial 10.0% to a current price of 25.0%. The most significant price action was a sharp 15.0 percentage point spike on May 07, 2026, which moved the price from 10.0% to 25.0%. This jump was likely a reaction to a Statistics Canada announcement that revealed continued declines in Canadian air travel to the U.S. for March 2026. This data release appears to have reinforced negative sentiment about Canadian travel to the U.S., aligning with broader reports from sources like Flight Centre indicating a majority of Canadians are less likely to visit the U.S.
The May 07 price spike was accompanied by a significant trading volume of 655.2 contracts, representing a substantial portion of the total 1,673 contracts traded throughout the market's history. This high volume suggests strong conviction among traders reacting to the new data. In terms of price levels, the market established an early floor at 10.0% before breaking out to the 25.0% level, which has since acted as a new point of consolidation. The all-time high of 49.0% represents a potential resistance level. Overall, the chart indicates a growing belief that a significant drop in travel is possible, though the current 25.0% price still suggests traders believe the outcome is more likely than not to resolve as "No."
  • Canadian return trips to the U.S. fell 22% in January 2026.
  • Major Canadian airlines are significantly reducing U.S. route capacities for 2026.
  • Canadian disposable income shows mixed outlooks; U.S. travel costs likely impact.
  • Scheduled 2026 bilateral events could influence U.S.-Canada political factors.
  • Statistics Canada's 'Frontier Counts' is the official source for market resolution.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Decline greater than 20% 25.0% 43.6% No specific drivers are detailed in the provided research for this outcome.

Current Context

Canadian travel to the U.S. is projected to significantly decline in 2026. A Flight Centre study indicates that 62% of Canadians are less likely to visit the U.S. in 2026 compared to the previous year [1][2]. This trend is corroborated by Statistics Canada data, which shows a 12.5% decrease in Canadian-resident return trips from the U.S. between February 2025 and February 2026, marking the 14th consecutive month of year-over-year decline [3]. Specifically, February 2026 saw a 13% year-over-year decrease in return trips by car and a 17.6% drop by air. Overall, combined air and car return trips from the U.S. were down 14.5% compared to February 2025 and a more significant 31.5% compared to February 2024 [4]. A Leger report highlights key deterrents, with 67% of those less likely to travel citing the political climate, 61% pointing to tariffs and trade tensions, and 59% expressing concerns about safety [5]. Additionally, the exchange rate and overall costs are significant considerations for 44% of Canadians [1]. In response to this declining demand, WestJet is reportedly suspending 16 routes between Canadian and U.S. cities for the summer 2026 season [6].
Global economic growth is expected to remain steady, driven by the U.S. This is anticipated to be fueled by a resilient U.S. economy, easing monetary policies, stabilizing trade conditions, and nearly $500 billion in AI-driven investment [7][8][9][10][11][12]. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global growth at 3.1% for 2026, with global inflation expected to rise modestly before declining in 2027 [10]. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict in the Middle East, are impacting the global economy, leading to revised forecasts with reduced growth expectations and increased inflation [8][10]. Risks include prolonged conflicts, deeper geopolitical fragmentation, and renewed trade tensions [10]. For the U.S., Goldman Sachs forecasts a "sturdy" economic expansion of 2.8% in 2026, outperforming the consensus due to reduced tariff drag, tax cuts, and easier financial conditions, and anticipates continued easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve [13][14]. Mercer expects global inflation to stabilize around central bank targets [7]. The U.S. labor market, however, is considered at risk, with new hiring having largely stalled, though Goldman Sachs expects stabilization, viewing further softening as a key risk [12][13].
Canada's economy faces subdued job growth and a steady unemployment rate. The outlook for 2026 suggests a lack of dynamism in the labor market [15]. Vanguard anticipates softened employment growth and a risen unemployment rate of 6.7%, predicting less support for household spending from the labor market [16]. While Indeed forecasts a moderate pickup in Canadian GDP growth, which might lead to a modest decline in unemployment and more stable job vacancies, it notes that this growth may not be sufficient to significantly reverse negative job market trends [17]. RBC Economics describes Canada's 2026 outlook as cautiously optimistic but highlights energy price spikes and tariff uncertainty as key risks [18]. Canada added 14,000 jobs in March 2026, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.7% [15]. However, employment decreased by 17,700 in April 2026 [19]. Experts suggest that the elevated unemployment rate in Canada is primarily due to slower hiring rather than increased layoffs [15].
Sources (19)
  1. 1jimbyerstravel.com
  2. 2forbes.com
  3. 3globalnews.ca
  4. 4travelweek.ca
  5. 5leger360.com
  6. 6skift.com
  7. 7mercer.com
  8. 8cib.bnpparibasglobalmarkets.cib.bnpparibas
  9. 9piie.com
  10. 10imf.org
  11. 11imf.org
  12. 12youtube.com
  13. 13goldmansachs.com
  14. 14goldmansachs.com
  15. 15td.comeconomics.td.com
  16. 16vanguard.comcorporate.vanguard.com
  17. 17hiringlab.org
  18. 18rbc.com
  19. 19tradingeconomics.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 May 07, 2026: 15.0pp spike

Price increased from 10.0% to 25.0%

Outcome: Decline greater than 20%

What happened: The primary driver of the 15.0 percentage point market spike on May 07, 2026, was likely the Statistics Canada announcement on May 01, 2026, detailing screened passenger traffic for March 2026 [1]. This traditional news release revealed continued declines in Canadian air travel to the U.S., down 7.0% year over year and 25.4% compared to March 2024 [1]. Furthermore, the report noted a 15.0% year-over-year increase in non-U.S. international traffic at Halifax airport for March 2026, reinforcing the ongoing trend of Canadians shifting away from U.S. destinations [1]. This official data, appearing to lead the price move, reaffirmed the "Decline greater than 20%" outcome. Social media activity was not a primary driver, as no specific, timely posts or viral narratives linked to this movement were identified in the research.
Sources (1)
  1. 1The Daily — Screened passenger traffic at Canadian airports, March 2026www150.statcan.gc.ca

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if Statistics Canada reports that Canadian-resident return trips from the U.S. in 2026 declined by greater than 20% compared to 2025, based on their "Travel between Canada and other countries, December 2026" release; otherwise, it resolves to NO.

If Statistics Canada does not publish a full-year percentage change for 2026, the market will resolve using a percentage calculated from their annual table for the same series. The market opened on May 6, 2026, will close early upon the economic data release, or by February 23, 2027, with projected payouts 30 minutes after closing.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Decline greater than 20% $0.26 $0.75 25%

Market Discussion

Canadian trips to the U.S. have shown significant year-over-year declines in early 2026, with return trips down 23-24% in January [1][2] and 12.5% in February [3][4], continuing a trend from 2025 where overall Canadian visits were reported down over 20% [5][2]. This downturn, which has led to airlines cutting over 10% of seats for Q1 2026 [1], is largely attributed to factors such as trade wars, tariffs, political tensions, and a weaker Canadian dollar [6][7][8].

Sources (8)
  1. 1Canada – U.S. Cross-Border Travel: A Structural Shift and a Strategic Moment - International Inbound Travel Associationinboundtravel.org
  2. 2Rebalancing Canadian travel continues as U.S. cross border trips decline - RBC Economicsrbc.com
  3. 3Canadian travel to U.S. declines for 14th consecutive monththestar.com
  4. 4Canadians are continuing to avoid travel to U.S., StatCan reports - National | Globalnews.caglobalnews.ca
  5. 5A year into Canadian tourism backlash, there's little sign of change: Travel Weeklytravelweekly.com
  6. 6Trade Wars Have Kept Canadian Tourists Away and Cost Americans Jobs - ProMarketpromarket.org
  7. 7Canada–US Travel Slump Deepens as Fewer Canadians Cross Border Amid Currency Pressure, Security Scrutiny, and Political Frictiontravelandtourworld.com
  8. 8Canadian Travel to the United States Slumps in 2026 as Political Tensions, Tariff Disputes, and Shifting Sentiment Spark a Domestic Tourism Boom Across Canada’s Resurgent Getaway Landscapetravelandtourworld.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 69 Caution

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score83Good
Trade quality20% of score16Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score69Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
80Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesPrice moves carried real volume. Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
20Very thin

Hard to fill near the screen price

1 contract

Decline greater than 20%20
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
47Mixed

Some moves lacked volume

1 contract

Decline greater than 20%47
Mixed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 3d

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Decline greater than 20%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
16Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 20 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 5.2c slippage (~52% of a 10c contract)

$1,000 order: 13.9c slippage (~139% of a 10c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Decline greater than 20%20Market scoreLiquidity20Move quality47Rule clarity100
Why 20
Liquidity
20 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
47 · Mixed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 3d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

6. How are 2026 travel booking trends from Canada to the U.S. comparing with bookings to European and Caribbean destinations?

US Trips Decline (Jan 2026)22% year over year [1][2]
Canadians Less Likely to Visit US (2026)62% [3]
Overseas Trips Increase (Feb 2026)6.8% [4]
Canadian travel to the United States experienced a significant decline in early 2026. January 2026 saw a 22% year-over-year plunge in Canadian return trips to the U.S., totaling 2.1 million [1][2]. This downward trend continued into February 2026, marking the fourteenth consecutive month of decline, with a 12.5% reduction in trips, including 1.2 million by auto and 749,000 by air [4]. Looking ahead, 62% of Canadians are less likely to visit the U.S. in 2026 [3], and trip consideration for the U.S. has dropped to 21% from 40% in 2023 [5]. Further reflecting this downturn, WestJet is suspending its U.S. routes for summer 2026 [1].
Overseas and Caribbean destinations are increasingly popular among Canadian travelers. Overseas return trips saw a 6.8% surge in February 2026, reaching 1.4 million and surpassing U.S. auto trips [4]. Air travel to countries other than the U.S. also showed robust growth, increasing by 10.7% in January 2026 [6]. This shift in preference is clearly seen in 2026 trip consideration, with 37% of Canadians considering the Caribbean and 31% considering Western Europe, significantly higher than the 21% considering the U.S. [5].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Canadian resident trips to U.S. plunge by 22% year over year - National | Globalnews.caglobalnews.ca
  2. 2The Daily — Travel between Canada and other countries, January 2026www150.statcan.gc.ca
  3. 3Canadians continue to shift travel priorities in 2026 - BSAPbaxterambassadors.com
  4. 4The Daily — Travel between Canada and other countries, February 2026www150.statcan.gc.ca
  5. 5Canadians Spending More, Advisors Remain Relevant: Studytravelmarketreport.com
  6. 6Expert Insights: Caribbean & Global Tourism Analysis 2026 - Tourism Analytics - Caribbean Tourism Data & Statisticstourismanalytics.com

7. What do 2026 economic outlooks from RBC, Vanguard, and Goldman Sachs project for Canadian disposable income versus U.S. travel costs?

Canadian Real Disposable Income Growth (Bottom 80%)Positive for 2025-26 (RBC) [1][2]
U.S. Travel Price Index Increase5.8% year-over-year by March 2026 [3]
Canadian Trips to U.S. Decrease21.7% through November 2025 [4]
Canadian disposable income shows mixed outlooks, with projected GDP growth. RBC projects positive real disposable income growth for the bottom 80% of Canadians in 2025-26, though rising energy and food inflation may erode affordability for lower-income households [1][2]. Other economic forecasts for Canada in 2026 include Vanguard's projection of 1.6% GDP growth, driven by resilient consumption and real wages, with unemployment expected at 6.2% and core CPI at 2.3% [5]. Goldman Sachs similarly forecasts Canadian GDP growth at 1.8% and unemployment at 6.5%, attributing this expansion to diminishing tariffs and various fiscal measures [6].
U.S. travel costs are rising, deterring Canadian visitors. A significant increase in U.S. travel expenses is projected, with the Travel Price Index expected to rise by 5.8% year-over-year by March 2026, including notable increases of 19.2% for gas prices and 14.9% for airline costs [3]. This trend aligns with a reported decrease in Canadian travel to the U.S., with trips down 21.7% through November 2025 and an estimated 25.7% drop for the entirety of 2025 [4][7]. Border crossings from British Columbia to the U.S. also saw a sharp decline of 32% in January 2026 [8]. While overall U.S. inbound growth is projected at 3.9% for 2026, a persistent drag from Canadian tourism is expected, consequently fostering growth in Canada's domestic tourism sector [7][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Affordability: Decoding Canada’s uneven household realities - RBC Economicsrbc.com
  2. 2Growth headwinds offset by stabilizing trade and jobs - RBC Economicsrbc.com
  3. 3Travel Price Index (2026-04-10)| U.S. Travel Associationustravel.org
  4. 4US sees a drop in Canadian visitors as travel patterns shift (2026)elroserhostal.com
  5. 5Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2026 | Vanguard Canadavanguard.ca
  6. 6Goldman’s Canada 2026 economic outlook: Growth picks up as trade tensions fadeca.finance.yahoo.com
  7. 7US International Inbound: Lessons from 2025, Outlook for 2026 | Oxford Economicsoxfordeconomics.com
  8. 8Border crossings from B.C. to the U.S. kept plummeting in January | Vancouver Sunvancouversun.com
  9. 9Canada's global moment sets tourism sector on course for a banner 2026 and growth to 2035newswire.ca

8. Which specific political factors cited in the Leger report could be influenced by U.S.-Canada bilateral events scheduled for 2026?

Metropolis SummitFebruary 26 [1]
Second Century Commission LaunchMay [2][3]
SelectUSA SummitMay 3-6 [4]
Scheduled 2026 bilateral events are set to influence U.S.-Canada political factors. The Leger report highlights several key political factors in U.S.-Canada relations, including political tensions, tariffs, the perception of the U.S. as an enemy, and confidence in trade relations, which could be impacted by upcoming events. Specifically, the Second Century Commission, launching in May and focused on trade and security, is expected to address Canadian concerns regarding "political tensions" [2][3], "tariffs" [5][3], and "confidence in trade post U.S. court rulings" [6], potentially also influencing the percentage of Canadians who "view U.S. as enemy" [7]. The SelectUSA Summit, scheduled for May 3-6 to discuss investment, could mitigate "political tensions" [2][3] and "less confidence in trade post U.S. court rulings" [6] through economic engagement [4]. Additionally, the Metropolis Summit on February 26, which addresses immigration and border issues, could influence "political tensions" [2][3] and potentially reduce the percentage of Canadians who "view U.S. as enemy" [7] by improving cross-border cooperation [1].
The absence of a North American Leaders' Summit may worsen existing tensions. Amid an ongoing "trade war" [8], the lack of an official North American Leaders' Summit in 2026 suggests that high-level resolution for significant concerns may not occur. This absence could sustain or exacerbate "political tensions" [2][3], issues surrounding "tariffs" [5][3], and the existing "less confidence in trade post U.S. court rulings" [6] within the bilateral relationship, as a formal high-level forum would be missing.
Sources (8)
  1. 1Metropolis Americas Summit 2026 – Metropolis Conferencemetropolisconference.ca
  2. 2Canadian and U.S. Travel Behaviour - Legerleger360.com
  3. 3Three Countries, Three Perspectives: How Tariffs Are Reshaping Views in North America - Legerleger360.com
  4. 4SelectUSA Investment Summit 2026 - AmChamCanadaamchamcanada.ca
  5. 5Political Tensions Impact Travel: Nearly Half of Canadians Less Likely to Visit the U.S. in 2025 - Legerleger360.com
  6. 6Tariffs: Court Rulings Diminish Canadians' Confidence in U.S. Trade Relations - Legerleger360.com
  7. 7North American Tracker: U.S. as an Ally - Legerleger360.com
  8. 8North American Leaders' Summiten.wikipedia.org

9. What is the official data source from Statistics Canada that will inform the market's resolution, and what is its 2026 release schedule?

Primary Data Source"Travel between Canada and other countries" from Frontier Counts (survey ID 5005) [1][2][3]
January 2026 Data ReleaseMarch 23, 2026 [1]
February 2026 Data ReleaseApril 23, 2026 [2]
Statistics Canada's 'Frontier Counts' is the official source for US trips. The official and definitive data source for Canadian trips to the US is Statistics Canada's 'Travel between Canada and other countries' from Frontier Counts, identified as survey ID 5005 [1][2][3]. This survey is critical as it provides definitive counts of Canadian trips to the US, based on border records, and represents the complete dataset used for final market resolution, distinguishing it from preliminary indicators [3][4]. While other sources like the National Travel Survey offer quarterly outbound trip data, they are considered less granular regarding border crossings compared to the Frontier Counts [5][6].
2026 data releases follow a monthly schedule. For 2026, the 'Travel between Canada and other countries' data for January was released on March 23, 2026 [1]. Subsequently, the February data became available on April 23, 2026 [2]. The March data is currently scheduled for release on May 21, 2026 [1][2].
Sources (6)
  1. 1The Daily — Travel between Canada and other countries, January 2026www150.statcan.gc.ca
  2. 2The Daily — Travel between Canada and other countries, February 2026www150.statcan.gc.ca
  3. 3Surveys and statistical programs - Frontier Counts (FC)www23.statcan.gc.ca
  4. 4The Daily — Leading indicator of international arrivals to Canada, January 2026www150.statcan.gc.ca
  5. 5Travel by Canadian residents in Canada and abroad by trip purposewww150.statcan.gc.ca
  6. 6The Daily — National Travel Survey and Visitor Travel Survey, second quarter 2025www150.statcan.gc.ca

10. How are major Canadian airlines like WestJet and Air Canada adjusting their U.S. route capacities for the 2026 travel seasons?

WestJet US Capacity Cut (Summer 2026)32% ASMs [1][2]
Air Canada US Capacity Cut (Q1 2026)7% [3]
Canadian Airlines Overall US Capacity Cut (Q1 2026)Approximately 10% [3][4]
WestJet and Air Canada are significantly reducing U.S. route capacities for 2026. WestJet announced a 32% reduction in US capacity measured by available seat miles (ASMs) for summer 2026, which includes eliminating 15 transborder routes and cutting 28% of its seats for May/June 2026 US service [1][2][5]. For the first quarter of 2026, WestJet's US capacity is down by 19% [3][4]. Similarly, Air Canada's US capacity is reduced by 7% in Q1 2026, with the airline ceasing seasonal routes earlier than planned, such as services between Toronto and Sacramento, and Vancouver and Raleigh [3][6].
Broader declines reflect softening demand and capacity reallocation efforts. Canadian airlines collectively trimmed approximately 10% of their US capacity in Q1 2026, which amounts to a total of 450,000 seats [3][4]. Overall, the Canada-US capacity saw a 9.6% decrease in Q1 2026 [7]. This downturn is largely attributed to a softening in transborder demand, potentially influenced by tariffs and geopolitical tensions [8][9][10][11]. Consequently, airlines are reallocating capacity to alternative regions, including the Caribbean, Latin America, and Mexico [8][9][10][11]. Supporting this trend, passenger data indicates that Canadian return trips from the US were down 31.5% in February 2026 compared to February 2024. Total transborder passengers experienced a 7% decrease in March 2026 and a 14.5% decrease in February 2026 [12][13].
Sources (13)
  1. 1PAX - WestJet removes 15 transborder routes, cuts summer capacity by 32%paxnews.com
  2. 2WestJet Cancels 15 US Routes, Cuts Summer 2026 Capacity by 32% - Aviation A2Zaviationa2z.com
  3. 3Canadian Airlines Cut 450,000 US-Bound Seats - Open Jawopenjaw.com
  4. 4PAX - Canadian airlines reduce U.S. capacity by nearly 10% for Q1: reportpaxnews.com
  5. 5WestJet Reduces 26% May/June 2026 US Service — AeroRoutesaeroroutes.com
  6. 6Air Canada cuts more U.S. routes early due to jet fuel pricestoronto.citynews.ca
  7. 7North America to Maintain Modest Growth in 2026 - Air Service Oneairserviceone.com
  8. 8WestJet Deepens U.S. Flight Cuts Across Summer 2026 - Fleet Wirefleet-wire.com
  9. 9✈️ WestJet Reshapes Canada–U.S. Network... - Moving to Canada | Facebookfacebook.com
  10. 10New US routes omitted from Air Canada’s winter schedule amid transborder tensions - FlightGlobalflightglobal.com
  11. 11Canada-US capacity, load factors tumble in 2025enginecowl.com
  12. 12The Daily — Screened passenger traffic at Canadian airports, March 2026www150.statcan.gc.ca
  13. 13The Daily — Leading indicator of international arrivals to Canada, February 2026www150.statcan.gc.ca

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Canadian return trips to the United States have shown a consistent decline, with January 2026 seeing 2.1 million trips, a 22% year-over-year decrease, and February 2026 recording 2.0 million trips, a 12.5% decrease [1][2]. This marks the 14th consecutive decline [1][2]. RBC Economics forecasts 29.1 million trips for the full year 2025, representing a 25.4% decrease from 2024 [3]. Key factors contributing to this trend include political tensions that began in early 2025, a weak Canadian dollar, and increased border scrutiny, even as overseas trips by Canadians have risen by more than 10% [1][4][5].
The reduction in Canadian travel to the U.S. has led to an estimated economic loss of approximately $5 billion for the United States, impacting over 100,000 jobs, with border states being the hardest hit [6][7]. While specific prediction markets on an exact 20% decline are not available, tariff-related markets show low 'Yes' probabilities, between 0% and 5% [8][9]. A significant event that could potentially boost travel is the FIFA World Cup 2026, which will be hosted by the U.S., Canada, and Mexico from June 11 to July 19 [10].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 02, 2027
  • Closes: February 23, 2027
Sources (10)
  1. 1Canadian return trips to the United States fall 22 % while overseas travel hits new record – January 2026 Statistics Canada datavisahq.com
  2. 2The Daily — Travel between Canada and other countries, February 2026www150.statcan.gc.ca
  3. 3Rebalancing Canadian travel continues as U.S. cross border trips decline - RBC Economicsrbc.com
  4. 4Canada–US Travel Slump Deepens as Fewer Canadians Cross Border Amid Currency Pressure, Security Scrutiny, and Political Frictiontravelandtourworld.com
  5. 5The Daily — Travel between Canada and other countries, January 2026www150.statcan.gc.ca
  6. 6Canadian Tourism Slowdown Squeezes U.S. Border Citiesthetraveler.org
  7. 7Canadian Travel to United States Now Drops Over Fourteen Percent in 2026, Triggering Almost Five Billion Loss and Sharp Border Declines in Vermont and Montanatravelandtourworld.com
  8. 8Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Prediction... 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  9. 9Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by...? Predictions & O... 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  10. 10Travel advice and advisories for United States (USA)travel.gc.ca