Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026?

The Bank of Canada's final 2026 rate decision is December 9. The Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its final policy interest rate for 2026 on Wednesday, December 9, 2026, at 9:45 a.m. ET ^[1][2][3][4]. This is a standard rate decision, not accompanied by a Monetary Policy Report or a scheduled press conference ^[2]. A summary of the Governing Council's deliberations is set for release on December 23, 2026, at 1:30 p.m. ET ^[5][6]. As of mid-September 2026, prediction markets show varied expectations, with 24% probability assigned to a 25 basis point cut, and lower likelihoods for maintaining or hiking the rate ^[7]. Our analytical base-case forecast is for the BoC to hold the policy rate near 2.25% in December 2026. Canada's interbank rate, reported at 2.26729% in Q2 2026 and 2.25579% in Q1 2026, is consistent with a policy environment near 2.25% ^[8]. Based on judgmental scenario weighting, the confidence assessment is 55% for a hold, 30% for a cut, and 15% for a hike ^{[9][10][11][12]}.

Policy rate holds at 2.25% given current projections. The plausibility for a hold stems from the Bank's recent communication, which stated that the existing policy rate of 2.25% is appropriate to keep inflation near 2% and support economic adjustment, assuming inflation and activity evolve broadly as projected ^[12]. A main downside risk is a 25 basis point cut if Canadian growth, employment, or trade exposure materially deteriorates ^[9][11]. Earlier BoC analysis cited weak 2026 growth and tariff-related uncertainty, while prior commentary indicated further cuts remained possible if conditions changed ^[12]. Conversely, an upside risk involves a hold or, less likely, a 25 basis point hike if inflation expectations or tariff-related cost pass-through become persistently elevated ^[10]. The BoC balances inflation above and below target and monitors cost pass-through and expectations ^[13][14]. Global economic outlooks for late 2026 indicate some analysts note resilient growth and persistent inflation may prompt major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, to consider rate hikes rather than further cuts ^[15][16].

Upcoming US economic data influences global policy comparisons. The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press release is scheduled for December 17, 2026, providing a key late-month global policy comparison ^[17]. However, CME FedWatch probabilities specifically pertain to the U.S. Federal Reserve and should not be used as forecasts for the Bank of Canada ^[17]. Key data points preceding the BoC meeting include U.S. November employment figures, scheduled for release on December 4 ^[18]. U.S. November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is scheduled for December 10, following the BoC decision, meaning it will affect subsequent market pricing but cannot inform the BoC's real-time decision ^[19].