Global Central Banks Markets

Active Markets (3)

Colombia rate decision in September Kalshi

Cut 1-25bps

Market Model 2.0% 1.7%

Cut more than 25bps

Market Model 1.0% 1.0%

7.5K contracts Refresh

Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026? Kalshi

Maintains rate

Market Model 52.0% 56.0%

Cut 25bps

Market Model 31.0% 27.7%

6.3K contracts Refresh

Reserve Bank of India rate decision in October Kalshi

Hike 1-25bps

Market Model 58.0% 50.1%

Cut more than 25bps

Market Model 5.0% 5.0%

2.1K contracts Refresh

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Colombia rate decision in September Top outcome: Cut 1-25bps	2.0%	1.7%	High	69	Refresh
Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026? Top outcome: Maintains rate	52.0%	56.0%	Med	75	Refresh
Reserve Bank of India rate decision in October Top outcome: Hike 1-25bps	58.0%	50.1%	High	75	Refresh

Expired Markets (9)

Bank of Canada decision in Jun 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

62.2K contracts

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in May Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

4.4K contracts

Bank of Russia rate decision in June Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

4.0K contracts

Bank of Israel rate decision in July Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.8K contracts

Bank of England rate decision in April Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

5.8K contracts

Central Bank of Brazil Rate Decision in April Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

52.8K contracts

Bank of Mexico rate decision in May Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

28.4K contracts

European Central Bank rate decision in April Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

39.3K contracts

Bank of Japan rate decision in June Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

15.8K contracts

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Bank of Canada decision in Jun 2026?	—	—	High	—
Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in May	—	—	High	—
Bank of Russia rate decision in June	—	—	High	—
Bank of Israel rate decision in July	—	—	Med	—
Bank of England rate decision in April	—	—	High	—
Central Bank of Brazil Rate Decision in April	—	—	Med	—
Bank of Mexico rate decision in May	—	—	High	—
European Central Bank rate decision in April	—	—	High	—
Bank of Japan rate decision in June	—	—	High	—