Fed Decision in October? Polymarket
No change
Market Model 53.0% 64.4%
25 bps increase
Market Model 47.0% 34.2%
Economic Policy Markets
Active Markets (2)
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Polymarket
0 (0 bps)
Market Model 89.0% 89.6%
11 (275 bps)
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in October? Top outcome: No change | 53.0% | 64.4% | High | 61 | Refresh |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: 0 (0 bps) | 89.0% | 89.6% | High | 55 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (2)
Fed rate cut by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 0.0% 0.9%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 63.0% 68.4%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed rate cut by...? Yes refers to: September Meeting | 0.0% | 0.9% | High | — | |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 63.0% | 68.4% | Med | — |
