Short Answer

No change to interest rates at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting is a toss-up for the market, which prices it at 53.0% following the Fed's September 16 rate hike to 3.75-4.00% due to inflation and energy shocks. The model assigns a higher 64.4% probability to no rate change.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market's decline is driven by contradictory information about whether a Federal Open Market Committee meeting will occur in October 2026. The initial 70.5% probability appears to have been based on Federal Reserve calendars scheduling a meeting for October 27-28, 2026. The subsequent drop to 52.5% coincides with conflicting data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and the CME FedWatch tool, both of which indicate no meeting is planned for that month. The Atlanta Fed's published blackout period explicitly states it is for a non-meeting month. This fundamental uncertainty about the event itself directly undermines the market's premise.
All price movement has occurred on zero traded volume. The lack of trading activity indicates the price changes do not reflect trader sentiment or capital flows. Instead, the downward trend is likely an automated or manual adjustment by the market maker in response to the conflicting scheduling data. The price reflects an informational correction, not active price discovery.
  • "No change" holds most probability, following the recent 3.75%–4.00% rate hike.
  • A "25 bps increase" remains possible due to elevated inflation and global energy shocks.
  • Strong Employment and CPI reports may increase "25 bps increase" probability.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
No change 53.0% 64.4% The Fed recently raised rates in September and may pause to assess economic impacts.
25 bps increase 47.0% 34.2% Elevated inflation and global energy shocks could prompt a further rate hike.
25 bps decrease 0.8% 0.7% This outcome is highly unlikely as the Fed recently raised rates due to elevated inflation.
50+ bps decrease 0.3% 0.3% A substantial rate decrease is highly improbable given the Fed recently raised rates.
50+ bps increase 0.6% 0.5% A 50+ bps increase is unlikely without a significant unforeseen worsening of economic conditions.

Current Context

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's blackout periods for 2026 are scheduled for October 17–29, explicitly indicating no FOMC meeting occurs in October [1]. Similarly, the CME FedWatch tool notes no meeting in October 2026 to evaluate interest rate probabilities [2]. However, other Federal Reserve and financial calendar sources indicate an FOMC meeting scheduled for October 27–28, 2026, with an interest rate decision announcement on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, at 2:00 PM ET [3][4][5][6]. If held, this would be a non-SEP meeting, meaning no updated dot plot or economic projections would be released, though a press conference by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh would follow the decision [7][6].
The Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 3.75%–4.00%. As of September 17, 2026, Chairman Kevin Warsh presided over a September 16, 2026, meeting where rates were increased to this range [8][9][10]. The stated rationale for the hike included elevated inflation and global energy shocks, despite political pressure from President Trump to maintain or cut rates [10][11]. Following this September rate increase, market expectations and economic analysis suggest a path of potential further monetary policy tightening in 2026 [10][12][11]. Some analysts anticipate additional rate increases in late 2026, though specific expectations for the disputed October period vary [10][12][11]. Internal debates over the inflation and monetary policy outlook were noted among participants at the July meeting [13].
Sources (13)
  1. 1Blackout Periods - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlantaatlantafed.org
  2. 2FedWatch - CME Groupcmegroup.com
  3. 3Federal Reserve Board - Calendar: October 2026federalreserve.gov
  4. 4The Fed - Meeting calendars and informationfederalreserve.gov
  5. 5The Fed - Meeting calendars and informationfederalreserve.gov
  6. 62026 FOMC Meeting Schedule: Every Date & What Happens | MacroOddsmacroodds.com
  7. 7FOMC Rate Decision October 2026: Date, Time & What to Expect | Finance Calendarfinancecalendar.com
  8. 8Warsh's words may matter more than the anticipated Fed rate hike | Reutersreuters.com
  9. 9Transcript of Chairman Warsh’s Press Conference Opening Statement September 16, 2026federalreserve.gov
  10. 10Warsh Takes Hawkish Turn With Rate Rise and Hints of More to Come - WSJwsj.com
  11. 11Warsh likely to side with financial markets over Trump as Fed rate hike expected | WBAL Baltimore Newswbal.com
  12. 12September FOMC Tightening Looks Likely After Warsh Speechcontinuumeconomics.com
  13. 13Fed Minutes Show Many Officials Said Rate Hikes May Be Needed | Bloomberg Businessweekyoutube.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 September 16, 2026: 8.0pp spike

Price increased from 37.5% to 45.5%

Outcome: 25 bps increase

What happened: The primary driver of the 8.0 percentage point spike in the "25 bps increase" outcome for the "Fed Decision in October?" market on September 16, 2026, was the Federal Reserve's official monetary policy announcements [1][2][3][4]. On this date, the FOMC, led by Chairman Kevin Warsh, announced a 25 basis point rate hike and released updated policy projections [2][3][4]. These projections indicated that 16 of 18 policymakers anticipate at least one additional 25 basis point rate hike by the end of 2026, directly increasing the perceived likelihood of such a move at the next FOMC meeting in October [2][3][4]. Social media activity was irrelevant, as no specific posts or viral narratives linked to the movement were identified.
Sources (4)
  1. 1Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementfederalreserve.gov
  2. 2Fed hikes rates, sees more tightening in search of 'timelier' drop in inflation | Reutersreuters.com
  3. 3Fed rate decision September 2026: Fed hikes ratescnbc.com
  4. 4Fed hikes rates for first time under Warsh, sees more tightening ahead - Nikkei Asiaasia.nikkei.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to one of several outcomes based on the change in the upper bound of the Federal Funds Rate after the FOMC meeting on October 27-28, 2026. The possible outcomes are "50+ bps decrease," "25 bps decrease," "No change," "25 bps increase," or "50+ bps increase." If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market will resolve to "No change."

The resolution source is the FOMC's statement following the October 2026 meeting, with official data from the Federal Reserve website. Any change not expressed in the displayed options will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points, meaning, for example, a 12.5 bps change will be considered 25 bps.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
No change $0.53 $0.48 53%
25 bps increase $0.47 $0.54 47%
25 bps decrease $0.01 $0.99 1%
50+ bps increase $0.01 $0.99 1%
50+ bps decrease $0.00 $1.00 0%

Market Discussion

The market indicates a close debate on the Federal Reserve's October 2026 decision, with probabilities slightly favoring "No change" (53%) over a "25 bps increase" (47%) in the federal funds rate. Arguments for a hike stem from the Fed's recent hawkish September action, a dot plot showing most officials expect another 2026 increase, and persistent inflation concerns. Conversely, the "No change" stance likely considers the recent tightening and the potential for a pause before the December meeting, with incoming September economic data being a key swing factor.

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Polymarket 59 Caution

Official decision: one office decides and holds the answer before the public

Integrity risk· Information exposure

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score54Caution
Trade quality20% of score81Good

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses under 1% of the price to slippage.

Trust score59Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity5 screens run · 2 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
74Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Outcome controlStructural risk · high confidence

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on “No change” carried 69% of its $16,755 tape (window is 1% of 24h flow)

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesMoves carried volume Clear
Size patternsTrade sizes look organic. Clear
1 screen not run
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
30High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Official decision: one office decides and holds the answer before the public

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
60Caution

Settlement depends on token voting

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Liquidity
86Deep

Size fills near the screen price

5 contracts · worst first

50+ bps decrease65
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

50+ bps increase80
Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 14.4% of price over 3 traded bars

24h traded notional $3,679 · 24h
25 bps decrease81
Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 12.1% of price over 7 traded bars

24h traded notional $4,306 · 24h
25 bps increase88
Deep · high confidence

Quoted spread 2.2% of price with size at both touches

No change89
Deep · high confidence

Quoted spread 1.9% of price with size at both touches

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

5 contracts · worst first

No change—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

25 bps increase—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

25 bps decrease—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

50+ bps increase—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

50+ bps decrease—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

5 contracts · worst first

No change95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
25 bps increase95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
25 bps decrease95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
50+ bps increase95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
50+ bps decrease95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
81Good

Order book supports trading

Deep and tight enough to trade efficiently.

Outcome quality 86 (notional-weighted across 5 scored legs)

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 52.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 52.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 52.5c contract)

No changePrimary89Market scoreLiquidity89Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 89
Liquidity
89 · Deep · high confidence

Quoted spread 1.9% of price with size at both touches

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
25 bps increase88Market scoreLiquidity88Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 88
Liquidity
88 · Deep · high confidence

Quoted spread 2.2% of price with size at both touches

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
25 bps decrease81Market scoreLiquidity81Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 81
Liquidity
81 · Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 12.1% of price over 7 traded bars

24h traded notional $4,306 · 24h
Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
50+ bps increase80Market scoreLiquidity80Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 80
Liquidity
80 · Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 14.4% of price over 3 traded bars

24h traded notional $3,679 · 24h
Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
50+ bps decrease65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 17, 2026

6. How might public statements from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and President Trump between September and October 2026 influence market sentiment?

Warsh's Swearing-in DateMay 22, 2026 [1]
October 2026 FOMC 'No Change' Probability~72% (as of Sept 17, 2026) [2][3][4][5]
October 2026 FOMC 25 bps Hike Probability24-25% (as of Sept 17, 2026) [2][3][4][5]
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and President Trump will significantly influence market sentiment. This expected impact, spanning September and October 2026, arises from the market's high sensitivity to the dynamic between the Federal Reserve's inflation concerns and the President's public demands for interest rate cuts [6][7][8]. This tension often manifests as volatility in equities, bond yields, and the dollar [9][10][6][7][8]. Chair Warsh, who was sworn in as Chairman of the Federal Reserve on May 22, 2026 [1], has previously influenced market sentiment through hawkish communications, causing rapid shifts in rate hike probabilities and increased Treasury yields [2].
Market participants anticipate faster interest rate cuts during Chair Warsh's tenure. As of September 2026, this expectation persists despite his previous hawkish communications [7]. Current prediction markets, as of September 17, 2026, for the October 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting indicate a strong consensus of approximately 72% for 'No change' in interest rates [2][3][4][5]. A 24-25% probability is assigned to a 25-basis-point increase [2][3][4][5]. Any public statements from Chair Warsh or President Trump between September and October 2026 addressing inflation, rate cuts, or Fed independence could cause shifts in these probabilities and further impact market sentiment [6][7][8].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Warsh Sworn in as New Fed Chairman - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlantaatlantafed.org
  2. 2Pricing the Hawkish Pivot: Analyzing the October 2026 Fed Rate Decision Marketainvest.com
  3. 3https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=polymirapolymarket.com
  4. 4https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=kooespolymarket.com
  5. 5Fed decision in October: odds compared across every prediction market · Predictions Networkthebestpredictionmarkets.com
  6. 6US: Market Reflectionscmegroup.com
  7. 7US: Market Reflectionscmegroup.com
  8. 8US: Market Reflectionscmegroup.com
  9. 9Warsh and Fed Officials Raise Interest Rates to Fight Inflationnytimes.com
  10. 10U.S. Fed hikes rates, defying Trump's demands for a cuttheglobeandmail.com

7. Is there an official FOMC meeting scheduled for October 2026, and what does the agenda for a non-SEP meeting entail?

FOMC Meeting DatesOctober 27–28, 2026 [1][2][3]
Blackout PeriodOctober 17–29, 2026 [4]
SEP StatusNot an SEP meeting [1][2][3]
The FOMC is scheduled for a non-SEP meeting in October 2026. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has a meeting scheduled for October 27–28, 2026 [1][2][3]. This particular meeting is not designated for the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), with the 2026 SEP meetings instead slated for March, June, September, and December [1][2][3]. Associated with this October session, a blackout period for the FOMC is indicated from October 17–29, 2026 [4].
Non-SEP FOMC meetings follow a standard two-day policy agenda. A non-SEP FOMC meeting functions as a regular, two-day policy session focusing on reviewing economic and financial conditions to determine the appropriate monetary policy stance [2][5]. While these meetings do not include the quarterly economic forecasts found in SEP meetings, they still adhere to a standardized agenda, culminating in a public statement at its conclusion [6][7][8]. The Federal Reserve Chair holds a press conference after every scheduled FOMC meeting, including those without an SEP [6][9][7].
Sources (9)
  1. 1October 2026 Fed Meeting: FOMC Decision October 27–28polymarkettrader.com
  2. 2FOMC: Meaning, Meeting Schedule, Members, Rate Decisions, and...atfx.com
  3. 3When is the next Fed interest rate decision? - Equals Moneyequalsmoney.com
  4. 4Blackout Periods - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlantaatlantafed.org
  5. 5When is the Federal Reserve meeting (FOMC)? - IGig.com
  6. 6Monetary Policy Decision Makingnewyorkfed.org
  7. 7Monetary Policy Decision Makingnewyorkfed.org
  8. 8US: Fed Chair Press Conferencecmegroup.com
  9. 9Getting Out the Vote: Behind the Scenes of an FOMC Meeting - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlantaatlantafed.org

8. How do hawkish arguments for another rate hike compare to dovish arguments for a pause, citing recent inflation and global energy trends?

Probability of October 2026 pauseApproximately 70% [1][2][3][4]
US CPI increase (Aug 2026)3.4% year-over-year [5][6]
Energy cost increase (Aug 2025-Aug 2026)16.3% [7][8][9][5]
Prediction markets currently project varied outcomes for a hypothetical October rate decision. These markets assign approximately a 70% probability to the Federal Reserve pausing rate changes and a 25–28% probability to a 25 basis point rate hike for an October 27–28, 2026, FOMC meeting [1][2][3][4]. This follows a 25 basis point rate increase implemented at the Federal Reserve's September 15–16, 2026, FOMC meeting [10]. However, it is important to note that the Federal Reserve's operating schedule does not list an FOMC meeting in October 2026, as the calendar typically excludes meetings in that month [11][12][13][14].
Hawkish perspectives advocate for continued rate hikes due to persistent inflation and robust labor. Arguments for further tightening are driven by persistent underlying inflationary pressures, concerns that inflation is not yet fully under control despite some cooling, and strong labor market indicators [15][16][17][3]. As of September 2026, U.S. inflation remains elevated, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing 3.4% year-over-year in August 2026 [5][6]. Global energy price pressures, including a 16.3% increase in energy costs for the 12 months ending August 2026, are also cited as key factors influencing expectations for continued caution or potential tightening [17][3][7][8][9][5]. These arguments underscore the risk of entrenched, elevated inflation and the necessity of restrictive policy to achieve the 2% target [8].
Dovish arguments favor a pause, highlighting moderation in inflation and economic risks. In contrast, dovish viewpoints emphasize the need for patience and data dependence, alongside the risk that further rate increases could negatively impact economic growth [16][3]. While inflation remains elevated, it is showing signs of moderation [16][3]. Dovish perspectives also monitor deteriorating labor market indicators, such as rising unemployment expectations, and consider patience to avoid excessive tightening that could harm the economy [8][18][19].
Sources (19)
  1. 1Fed decision in October? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  2. 2Fed Decision in October? — Compare Odds on 4 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=kooespolymarket.com
  4. 4Fed decision in October: odds compared across every prediction market · Predictions Networkthebestpredictionmarkets.com
  5. 5Consumer Price Index News Release - 2026 M08 Resultsbls.gov
  6. 6Inflation Nowcastingclevelandfed.org
  7. 7How Energy Market Swings Are Reshaping Monetary Policy - OpenMarketscmegroup.com
  8. 8It Takes Two to Make an Economy Go Rightclevelandfed.org
  9. 9Firms' Views on the Current Oil Price Shock: Stable for Now, Risky for Tomorrow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlantaatlantafed.org
  10. 10Fed interest rate decision — September 2026 - Result: 25 bps increase | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  11. 11FOMC Press Release, Release Date: 2026-08-17 | ALFRED | St. Louis Fedalfred.stlouisfed.org
  12. 12Release Calendar | ALFRED | St. Louis Fedalfred.stlouisfed.org
  13. 13Federal Funds Target Range - Upper Limit (DFEDTARU) | FREDfred.stlouisfed.org
  14. 14FOMC Press Release, Release Date: 2026-08-17 | ALFRED | St. Louis Fedalfred.stlouisfed.org
  15. 15Pricing the Hawkish Pivot: Analyzing the October 2026 Fed Rate Decision Marketainvest.com
  16. 16Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)polymarketsignal.com
  17. 17https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=polymirapolymarket.com
  18. 18Atlanta Fed President Bostic Discusses Recent FOMC Decision to Hold Rate Steady - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlantaatlantafed.org
  19. 19Medium-Term Inflation Expectations Tick Down; Unemployment Expectations Deteriorate - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORKnewyorkfed.org

9. How has Chairman Kevin Warsh's voting record on monetary policy compared to that of other current FOMC members throughout 2026?

Chairman's Sworn DateMay 22, 2026 [1]
Federal Funds Rate Target3.50%–3.75% [2][3][4]
July 2026 FOMC Vote9-3 to maintain rate [4]
Chairman Kevin Warsh has consistently voted with the majority on monetary policy. Since his swearing-in on May 22, 2026 [1], Chairman Warsh has aligned with the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% throughout 2026 [2][3][4]. This position contrasts with several other FOMC members who have advocated for 25-basis-point rate increases and have dissented from the majority vote [2][3][4].
Internal dissent within the FOMC has become increasingly notable. Under Chair Warsh's leadership, the June 2026 meeting saw a unanimous 12-0 vote to keep the target rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent [4]. However, by the July 2026 meeting, the vote to maintain the same range was 9-3, with Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan dissenting in favor of a rate hike [4]. This indicates a trend of growing opposition, with as many as three or four members opposing the majority in recent meetings [2][3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Warsh Sworn in as New Fed Chairman - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlantaatlantafed.org
  2. 2Early dissents versus Fed chief Warsh are the most since 1970cryptobriefing.com
  3. 3Fed holds rates steady for second meeting; dissent signals possible hawkish shiftcryptobriefing.com
  4. 4US: Fed Chair Press Conference - CME Groupcmegroup.com

10. What key economic data releases between the September and October 2026 FOMC meetings could trigger a policy shift?

September 2026 Employment Report ReleaseOctober 2, 2026 [1]
September 2026 CPI Report ReleaseOctober 14, 2026 [1]
Next FOMC Meeting Decision DateOctober 28, 2026 [2][3]
Critical economic reports between FOMC meetings could influence policy decisions. Between the September and October 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, several significant economic data releases are anticipated to shape Federal Reserve policy expectations. The September 2026 Employment Situation report is scheduled for October 2, followed by the September 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on October 14 [1]. These reports, along with broader employment figures and revisions to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), are closely monitored by market participants and analysts for their potential to prompt shifts in Fed policy expectations [4][5]. The subsequent FOMC meeting is set for October 27–28, 2026, with the policy decision expected on October 28 [2][3].
Key reports and current market sentiment suggest a stable policy outlook. Additional economic data releases during this period include the August 2026 U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report on October 6 and the September 2026 Producer Price Index (PPI) on October 15 [1][6]. As of September 17, 2026, prediction markets generally indicate no change in the Fed's policy decision for October 2026 [7][8][9]. However, sentiment regarding future policy adjustments is considered fluid following the September meeting.
Sources (9)
  1. 1Schedule of Selected Releases 2026bls.gov
  2. 2October 2026 Fed Meeting: FOMC Decision October 27–28polymarkettrader.com
  3. 3Next FOMC Meeting: Date, Rate Odds & Policy Desk · LOPJLBlopjlb.com
  4. 4https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=polymirapolymarket.com
  5. 5Fed Decision in October? Odds & Prediction Markets | PredictionHeropredictionhero.com
  6. 6Release Schedule | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
  7. 7Fed decision in Sep 2026? — Compare Odds on 7 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  8. 8Fed decision in Oct 2026? - Compare Odds on 5 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  9. 9Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026) — Compare Odds on 4 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on October 27-28, 2026, with its interest rate decision announced on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, at 2:00 PM ET [1][2][3][4]. This October 2026 FOMC meeting is a non-SEP meeting, meaning no updated economic projections or dot plot will be released [1][3][4]. The FOMC blackout period runs from October 17–29, confirming the meeting concludes within this timeframe, with an FOMC press release scheduled for Wednesday, October 28, 2026 [5][6][7].
Kevin Warsh became Federal Reserve Chair in September 2026, succeeding Jerome Powell [8][9][10]. As of mid-September 2026, financial markets are monitoring tensions between Fed Chair Warsh and President Donald Trump. The Fed has begun raising interest rates to combat elevated inflation despite political pressure from the White House to keep rates low [8][9][11][12].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Closes: October 28, 2026
Sources (12)
  1. 1Federal Reserve Board - Calendar: October 2026federalreserve.gov
  2. 2The Fed - Meeting calendars and informationfederalreserve.gov
  3. 3FOMC Meeting Schedule October 2026 - Dates & Timefedratecalc.com
  4. 4FOMC Rate Decision October 2026: Date, Time & What to Expect | Finance Calendarfinancecalendar.com
  5. 5Blackout Periods - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlantaatlantafed.org
  6. 6Economic Release Calendar - FOMC Press Release | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
  7. 7Economic Release Calendar - FOMC Press Release | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
  8. 8Warsh's words may matter more than the anticipated Fed rate hike | Reutersreuters.com
  9. 9Warsh likely to side with financial markets over Trump as Fed rate hike expected - Boston News, Weather, Sports | WHDH 7Newswhdh.com
  10. 10It’s put up or shut up time on inflation for Fed chair Kevin Warshbostonglobe.com
  11. 11Traders are betting Trump may soon turn on Fed chair Kevin Warsh as interest-rate hikes loom - MarketWatchmarketwatch.com
  12. 12Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces his biggest test yetms.now

12. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on October 27-28, 2026, with its interest rate decision announced on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, at 2:00 PM ET [1][2][3][4].
  • Trigger: This October 2026 FOMC meeting is a non-SEP meeting, meaning no updated economic projections or dot plot will be released [1][3][4].
  • Trigger: The FOMC blackout period runs from October 17–29, confirming the meeting concludes within this timeframe, with an FOMC press release scheduled for Wednesday, October 28, 2026 [5][6][7].
  • Trigger: Kevin Warsh became Federal Reserve Chair in September 2026, succeeding Jerome Powell [8][9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Federal Reserve Board - Calendar: October 2026federalreserve.gov
  2. 2The Fed - Meeting calendars and informationfederalreserve.gov
  3. 3FOMC Meeting Schedule October 2026 - Dates & Timefedratecalc.com
  4. 4FOMC Rate Decision October 2026: Date, Time & What to Expect | Finance Calendarfinancecalendar.com
  5. 5Blackout Periods - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlantaatlantafed.org
  6. 6Economic Release Calendar - FOMC Press Release | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
  7. 7Economic Release Calendar - FOMC Press Release | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
  8. 8Warsh's words may matter more than the anticipated Fed rate hike | Reutersreuters.com
  9. 9Warsh likely to side with financial markets over Trump as Fed rate hike expected - Boston News, Weather, Sports | WHDH 7Newswhdh.com
  10. 10It’s put up or shut up time on inflation for Fed chair Kevin Warshbostonglobe.com

14. Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.