Before July 2026
Market Model 1.0% 1.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 57.0% 66.3%
Fed Markets
Active Markets (10)
Exactly 0 cuts
Market Model 74.2% 70.5%
Exactly 1 cut
Market Model 21.6% 14.5%
Yes
Market Model 9.5% 8.8%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 5.8%
Exactly 0
Market Model 30.0% 35.4%
Exactly 1
Market Model 32.2% 33.0%
Above 3.50%
Market Model 83.0% 68.9%
Above 3.75%
Market Model 23.0% 13.5%
Yes
Market Model 49.2% 48.0%
Above 3.50%
Market Model 42.0% 21.8%
Above 3.25%
Market Model 54.0% 30.5%
Hike >25bps
Market Model 4.0% 4.7%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 16.0% 12.3%
0 cuts
Market Model 90.1% 80.9%
1 cuts
Market Model 8.2% 11.1%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fed rate hike? Top outcome: Before July 2026 | 1.0% | 1.0% | High | $1,967,341.32 | Refresh |
| Number of rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 0 cuts | 74.2% | 70.5% | High | $4,170,294.04 | Refresh |
| Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 9.5% | 8.8% | Med | $141,395.84 | Refresh |
| Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 9.0% | 5.8% | Med | $300,626.27 | Refresh |
| Number of Fed rate changes before 2027 Top outcome: Exactly 0 | 30.0% | 35.4% | High | $19,243.24 | Refresh |
| Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting? Top outcome: Above 3.50% | 83.0% | 68.9% | High | $34,252.65 | Refresh |
| Fed rate cut before 2027? Yes refers to: Cuts | 49.2% | 48.0% | Med | $104,789.29 | Refresh |
| Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting? Top outcome: Above 3.50% | 42.0% | 21.8% | Med | $65,263.43 | Refresh |
| Fed decision in Sep 2027? Top outcome: Hike >25bps | 4.0% | 4.7% | High | $936 | Refresh |
| Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: 0 cuts | 90.1% | 80.9% | Med | $67,451 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (9)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | $30,918,452.92 | ||
| — | — | High | $2,910,219.98 | ||
| — | — | High | $9,529.84 | ||
| — | — | Med | $84,040.03 | ||
| — | — | High | $27,545.36 | ||
| — | — | High | $85,276.58 | ||
| — | — | Med | $201,833 | ||
| — | — | High | $11,022,727 | ||
| — | — | Med | $226,656 |
