Fed Decision in October? Polymarket
No change
Market Model 53.0% 64.4%
25 bps increase
Market Model 47.0% 34.2%
Fed Markets
Active Markets (10)
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Polymarket
0 (0 bps)
Market Model 89.0% 89.6%
11 (275 bps)
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026? Kalshi
Exactly 0 cuts
Market Model 74.2% 70.5%
Exactly 1 cut
Market Model 21.6% 14.5%
Yes
Market Model 9.5% 8.8%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 5.8%
Exactly 0
Market Model 30.0% 35.4%
Exactly 1
Market Model 32.2% 33.0%
Fed rate cut before 2027? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model 49.2% 48.0%
Above 3.50%
Market Model 42.0% 21.8%
Above 3.25%
Market Model 54.0% 30.5%
Fed decision in Sep 2027? Kalshi
Hike >25bps
Market Model 4.0% 4.7%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 16.0% 12.3%
0 cuts
Market Model 90.1% 80.9%
1 cuts
Market Model 8.2% 11.1%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in October? Top outcome: No change | 53.0% | 64.4% | High | 58 | Refresh |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: 0 (0 bps) | 89.0% | 89.6% | High | 57 | Refresh |
| Number of rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 0 cuts | 74.2% | 70.5% | High | 68 | Refresh |
| Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 9.5% | 8.8% | Med | 69 | Refresh |
| Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 9.0% | 5.8% | Med | 57 | Refresh |
| Number of Fed rate changes before 2027 Top outcome: Exactly 0 | 30.0% | 35.4% | High | 78 | Refresh |
| Fed rate cut before 2027? Yes refers to: Cuts | 49.2% | 48.0% | Med | 67 | Refresh |
| Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting? Top outcome: Above 3.50% | 42.0% | 21.8% | Med | 58 | Refresh |
| Fed decision in Sep 2027? Top outcome: Hike >25bps | 4.0% | 4.7% | High | 55 | Refresh |
| Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: 0 cuts | 90.1% | 80.9% | Med | 62 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (14)
Next Fed rate hike? Kalshi
Before 2027
Market Model 56.0% 33.9%
Before July 2027
Market Model 72.0% 54.2%
Fed rate cut by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 0.0% 0.9%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 63.0% 68.4%
Fed decision in Jul 2026? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Fed decision in Jun 2026? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Fed decision in Apr 2026? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Fed decision in Mar 2026? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fed rate hike? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 56.0% | 33.9% | High | — | |
| Fed rate cut by...? Yes refers to: September Meeting | 0.0% | 0.9% | High | — | |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 63.0% | 68.4% | Med | — | |
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