Fed decision in Sep 2027? Kalshi
Hike >25bps
Market Model 4.0% 4.7%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 16.0% 12.3%
Topic tracker · Economics
Fed meeting
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 5 so far (1 live, 4 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Fed meeting markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated July 15, 2026
Live market
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decision in Jul 2026? | July 29, 2026 | 1.0% vs 1.0% | Report → |
| Fed decision in Jun 2026? | June 17, 2026 | 0.7% vs 1.0% | Report → |
| Fed decision in Apr 2026? | April 29, 2026 | 4.5% vs 17.5% | Report → |
| Fed decision in Mar 2026? | March 18, 2026 | 5.2% vs 5.5% | Report → |
