Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect the Fed funds rate to be Above 2.75% after the Sep 2026 meeting, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This prediction market has demonstrated a highly stable, sideways trading pattern. The price has consistently remained within a narrow 4-point range, moving between 92.0% and 96.0%. Starting at 93.0%, the contract currently trades at 94.0%, indicating very little net change over the observed period. This lack of significant price movement suggests a strong and unwavering market consensus. The provided context does not contain specific news events that would have caused significant price spikes or drops, which aligns with the observed stability in the chart. Market sentiment appears firmly entrenched, with a high probability consistently priced in.
The trading volume of 835 total contracts, distributed over 76 data points, suggests moderate but not aggressive market activity. The low volatility combined with this volume pattern indicates that there is broad agreement among participants, with little new information or speculative pressure to shift the price significantly. The 92.0% level has acted as a clear support, while the 96.0% level has served as resistance, effectively capping the price within this channel. Overall, the chart reflects a market with high conviction, anticipating the outcome with a probability consistently in the mid-90s.
  • Consensus forecasts and market pricing expect Fed rate cuts by September 2026.
  • Major institutions like Goldman Sachs anticipate Fed funds rate around 3.00%-3.50%.
  • The Federal Reserve's SEP projects a 3.4% median fed funds rate for 2026.
  • Market pricing does not expect conditions for rates significantly above 4.00%.
  • Persistent inflation or strong labor market would necessitate holding higher rates.
  • Future fiscal policies from the 2024 election winner may impact inflation.

Current Context

The September 2026 FOMC meeting is scheduled for mid-September. The Federal Open Market Committee meeting is set for September 15–16, 2026, including a press conference on September 16 [1]. Following this meeting, the market-implied federal funds target-band midpoint is projected to be 3.13% [2].
A prediction market tracks the September 2026 Fed decision. A prediction market event, titled “Fed Decision in September?”, is currently active, resolving based on the change in the upper bound of the federal funds target range compared to its pre-meeting level [3]. The resolution for this market is expected around September 16, 2026, following the release of the FOMC statement [3]. The subsequent FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 27–28, 2026 [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Federal Reserve Board - Calendar: September 2026federalreserve.gov
  2. 2Fed Rate Odds: 2026 FOMC Meeting Probabilitiesrateprobability.com
  3. 3Fed Decision in September? Trading Odds & Predictions 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  4. 4Federal Reserve Board - Calendar: October 2026federalreserve.gov

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above 3.50%

📈 May 07, 2026: 15.0pp spike

Price increased from 68.0% to 83.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 15.0 percentage point spike on May 07, 2026, was the outcome of the Federal Reserve's May 6–7, 2026 FOMC meeting. The Fed held the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% [1][2][3]. Concurrently, commentary emerged regarding dissent within the FOMC, where officials reportedly favored "agnostic" or "less cut-presumptive" language for future rate guidance despite supporting unchanged rates [4]. This signaled a reduced likelihood of rate cuts by September 2026, bolstering the "Above 3.50%" outcome. No social media activity was identified as a primary or contributing driver from the available sources.

📈 May 04, 2026: 25.0pp spike

Price increased from 57.0% to 82.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 25.0 percentage point spike was the market's re-evaluation following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on April 29, 2026, which held rates steady but recorded unusually high dissent [2]. This prompted news reports in early May 2026 indicating that the market-implied probability of the Fed lifting rates at least once before year-end jumped, with CME FedWatch showing increased odds of a 25 basis point hike [5]. This rapidly shifted market sentiment, increasing the perceived likelihood of the Fed funds rate remaining above 3.50% after the September 2026 meeting. Based on the provided information, social media activity was irrelevant.

Outcome: Above 3.75%

📈 May 06, 2026: 14.0pp spike

Price increased from 10.0% to 24.0%

What happened: The provided information does not clearly identify a primary driver for the 14.0 percentage point spike in the "Above 3.75%" outcome on May 6, 2026. On that date, traditional news reported headlines about an Iran peace plan, which coincided with tumbling Treasury yields and sliding oil prices [6]. Such developments typically suggest reduced inflationary pressures, likely decreasing the probability of higher interest rates, rather than causing a spike in expectations for rates above 3.75% [6]. No social media activity from key figures or other market catalysts for this specific upward movement are identified in the provided sources.

📉 May 05, 2026: 19.0pp drop

Price decreased from 29.0% to 10.0%

What happened: No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives was identified that would explain the 19.0 percentage point drop on May 05, 2026. The available traditional news narrative from Business Insider around May 5, 2026, indicated that traders' odds shifted toward a possible rate hike rather than cuts [5]. This reported sentiment would logically suggest an increase in the probability of the federal funds rate being "Above 3.75%", directly contradicting the observed market movement. Therefore, based on the provided sources, a primary driver for this specific market drop cannot be definitively identified, and social media appears irrelevant.

📈 May 03, 2026: 15.0pp spike

Price increased from 12.0% to 27.0%

What happened: The reported 15.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for the federal funds rate after the Sep 2026 meeting, predicting "Above 3.75%", is not supported by the provided web research. Official data indicate the effective federal funds rate was 3.64% within a target range of 3.50%–3.75% as of May 1–May 7, 2026 [7]. Therefore, a primary driver, whether from social media, traditional news, or market factors, cannot be identified for a movement that lacks corroboration in the available sources.
Sources (7)
  1. 1Fed Rate Decision Shock: What The Fed Just Did To Marketsinvestozora.com
  2. 2Fed interest rate decision April 2026: Fed holds rates steady amid dissentcnbc.com
  3. 3Fed Rate Outlook May Surprise Americans in 2026 - TheStreetthestreet.com
  4. 4Fed’s Collins Agreed With FOMC Dissenters Over Statementfinance.yahoo.com
  5. 5Fed Rate Hike in 2026 More Likely As Markets Brace for Inflation Surge - Business Insiderbusinessinsider.com
  6. 6Treasury yields tumble as oil prices slidecnbc.com
  7. 7Federal Reserve Board - H.15 - Selected Interest Rates (Daily) - May 07, 2026federalreserve.gov

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the Federal Reserve's official website shows the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is greater than 3.75% following its September 16, 2026 meeting; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The outcome is verified from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors website. Trading closes on September 16, 2026, at 1:55 PM EDT, with a projected payout at 2:10 PM EDT, and insider trading is prohibited.

Market Discussion

As of April 29, 2026, the market-implied outcome for the September 16–17, 2026 FOMC decision shows a 74% probability of "No change" to the Fed funds rate, while a "25 bps decrease" has a 19% probability [1]. This market sentiment aligns with late April 2026 economic coverage, which cited CME FedWatch's indication of no immediate rate cuts and framed 2026 cuts as likely to be later rather than immediate [2].

Sources (2)
  1. 1Fed Decision in September? Trading Odds & Predictions 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  2. 2Fed predictions for 2026: What experts say about the possibility of rate cuts this yearfinance.yahoo.com

5. Trust Index

This scorecard was computed Sep 16, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 71 Good

Official decision: one office decides and holds the answer before the public

Integrity risk· Information exposure

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score69Caution
Trade quality20% of score81Good
Trust score71Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
93Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTrade sizes look organic. Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
30High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Official decision: one office decides and holds the answer before the public

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
81Deep

Size fills near the screen price

11 contracts · worst first

Above 4.00%6
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 5.25%26
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 5.00%33
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 4.25%48
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 4.50%54
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 3.25%58
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 2.75%65
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 3.00%65
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 3.50%65
Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Above 4.75%65
Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Above 3.75%87
Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 2.3% of price over 23 traded bars

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

11 contracts · worst first

Above 2.75%—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Above 3.00%—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Above 3.25%—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Above 3.50%—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Above 3.75%—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Above 4.00%—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Above 4.25%—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Above 4.50%—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Above 4.75%—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Above 5.00%—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Above 5.25%—
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

11 contracts · worst first

Above 2.75%95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 3.00%95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 3.25%95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 3.50%95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 3.75%95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 4.00%95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 4.25%95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 4.50%95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 4.75%95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 5.00%95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 5.25%95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
81Good

Order book supports trading

Deep and tight enough to trade efficiently.

Outcome quality 81 (notional-weighted across 11 scored legs)

Above 2.75%65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 3.00%65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 3.25%58Market scoreLiquidity58Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 58
Liquidity
58 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 3.50%65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 3.75%87Market scoreLiquidity87Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 87
Liquidity
87 · Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 2.3% of price over 23 traded bars

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 4.00%6Market scoreLiquidity6Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 6
Liquidity
6 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 4.25%48Market scoreLiquidity48Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 48
Liquidity
48 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 4.50%54Market scoreLiquidity54Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 54
Liquidity
54 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 4.75%65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 5.00%33Market scoreLiquidity33Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 33
Liquidity
33 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 5.25%26Market scoreLiquidity26Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 26
Liquidity
26 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 16, 2026

6. What key economic indicators, specifically from the CPI and Nonfarm Payrolls reports through mid-2026, would signal a need for the FOMC to hold rates above 4.00%?

CPI-U (March 2026)+3.3% y/y (with energy as driver) [1]
Nonfarm Payrolls (March 2026)+178,000 [2]
Prediction-Market Proxy (Post-Sep 2026)3.13% midpoint [3]
Persistent inflation beyond energy shocks and a strong labor market signal higher rates. To warrant the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holding interest rates above 4.00%, key indicators would include sustained Consumer Price Index (CPI) strength not primarily driven by energy shocks, alongside a labor market and wage environment conducive to delaying rate cuts [1]. CPI persistence beyond global energy prices, which the Federal Reserve has explicitly cited as a factor in elevated inflation, is the most crucial inflation signal for maintaining restrictive rates [1]. Although the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) CPI-U for March 2026 reported a +3.3% year-over-year increase with energy as a significant contributor, continued CPI strength from other sectors would be necessary to justify a federal funds rate above 4.00% [1].
Recent labor market data supports delaying rate cuts, contrary to current market pricing. The March 2026 nonfarm payrolls report, which showed total nonfarm payroll employment increasing by +178,000, unemployment at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings rising +0.2% month-over-month (+3.5% year-over-year), presents a labor-market and wage mix consistent with delaying rate cuts [2]. Such conditions would further support maintaining a higher policy rate if CPI remains elevated [2]. However, the prediction-market proxy currently implies a post–September 16, 2026, meeting midpoint around 3.13%, indicating that market pricing does not anticipate the need to hold rates above 4.00% unless material surprises in future CPI or Nonfarm Payrolls data significantly reprice this projected path [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Consumer Price Index News Release - 2026 M03 Resultsbls.gov
  2. 2Employment Situation Summary - 2026 M03 Resultsbls.gov
  3. 3Fed Rate Odds: 2026 FOMC Meeting Probabilitiesrateprobability.com

7. What are the core economic arguments from major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan that support a Fed funds rate between 3.00% and 3.50% by September 2026?

Goldman Sachs Fed Funds Terminal Level3.00%–3.25% (Goldman Sachs [1][2])
Goldman Sachs Economic Growth Forecast 20262.0%–2.5% (Goldman Sachs [1][2])
FOMC March 2026 Target Framework3.50%–3.75% (FOMC minutes [3])
Goldman Sachs anticipates rate cuts, reaching 3.00%-3.25% by 2026. The institution projects a terminal level of 3.00%–3.25% for the Fed funds rate by September 2026, specifically anticipating a pause in January 2026 followed by rate cuts in March and June 2026 [1][2]. This outlook is underpinned by expectations of economic growth reaccelerating to 2.0%–2.5% in 2026 and a cooling of inflation, which would mitigate risks to the easing path. Goldman Sachs also cites below-trend underlying job growth and favorable wage and income effects, suggesting that these labor market dynamics will further justify a gradual easing over time [1][2].
J.P. Morgan expects steady rates, but within the target range. J.P. Morgan Asset Management, conversely, anticipates the Federal Reserve to maintain current rates through at least the first half of 2026, believing that policy is near neutral and the Committee will await a decisive shift in the balance of risks before acting [4]. The institution also highlights potential inflation acceleration in mid-2026, stemming from factors like tariffs and fiscal stimulus, as a reason to avoid early rate cuts [4]. J.P. Morgan Global Research similarly suggests that 2026 will primarily involve holding rates steady, with any future cuts contingent on a material weakening of the labor market or worsening energy fallout [5]. However, even with this cautious approach, the actual Fed target framework as of March 18, 2026, was 3.50%–3.75% [3], indicating that by September 2026, the rate could still fall within the 3.00%–3.50% band through limited or gradual adjustments rather than a rapid easing cycle [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1The Outlook for Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 | Goldman Sachsgoldmansachs.com
  2. 2The Outlook for Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 | Goldman Sachsgoldmansachs.com
  3. 3The Fed - Monetary Policy:federalreserve.gov
  4. 4What is next for the Federal Reserve? | J.P. Morgan Asset Managementam.jpmorgan.com
  5. 5What’s The Fed’s Next Move? | J.P. Morgan Global Researchjpmorgan.com

8. How do the Federal Reserve's own Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) for 2026 compare with the path of interest rates implied by the Fed funds futures market?

Median Fed funds rate end-2026 (SEP)3.4% [1]
SEP 70% interval end-20262.4% to 3.9% [1]
Market-implied rate Sep 2026Not available for comparison [2]
The Federal Reserve projects a 3.4% median federal funds rate by 2026. The Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), released on March 18, 2026, indicates a median federal funds rate of 3.4% for the end of 2026. This projection also shows a 70% confidence interval for the rate, ranging from 2.4% to 3.9% for the same period [1].
A direct comparison with futures market implied rates is not possible. A direct comparison between the Fed's SEP and the implied interest rate level from the Fed funds futures market for the September 2026 meeting cannot be made based on the provided research. While resources like CME's FedWatch methodology and Polymarket prediction markets exist, the retrieved sources do not contain a citable, specific implied interest rate level for September 2026 from the futures market. Consequently, the necessary data for a direct comparison of specific rate levels is unavailable [2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1The Fed - March 18, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible versionfederalreserve.gov
  2. 230 Day Federal Funds Futures Quotes - CME Groupcmegroup.com

9. What do current estimates from the New York Fed and academic models indicate for the neutral rate of interest (r-star), and how does this affect long-term rate expectations for 2026?

New York Fed DSGE Model 2026 Real R-star1.9% [1]
FOMC March 2026 SEP Implied R-starApproximately 1.1% [2][3]
Cleveland Fed 2025Q2 Real R-star1.5% [4]
Current estimates for the neutral rate of interest (r-star) show variations across different models. The New York Fed's DSGE model projects a real r of 1.9% for 2026 [1]. In contrast, the FOMC's March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicates a median longer-run nominal federal funds rate of 3.1%, suggesting an approximate real r of 1.1% when accounting for an assumed 2% inflation rate [2][3].
Long-term projections for r-star and federal funds rates vary across models. Beyond 2026, the New York Fed DSGE model anticipates a gradual decrease in the real r, from 1.9% in 2026 to 1.1% by 2029 [1]. Other estimates include the Cleveland Fed's real r of 1.5% for 2025Q2, which corresponds to a nominal neutral rate of 3.7% [4], and a geometric mean calculation yielding an r* of about 1.43% [2]. The FOMC's March 2026 SEP further outlines long-term federal funds rate expectations, forecasting a median of 3.4% for 2026, followed by 3.1% for both 2027 and 2028 [2][3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2026 - Liberty Street Economicslibertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org
  2. 2Comparing the FOMC’s Estimate of R-Star with Alternative Estimates | St. Louis Fedstlouisfed.org
  3. 3The Fed - March 18, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible versionfederalreserve.gov
  4. 4Neutral Interest Rates and the Monetary Policy Stanceclevelandfed.org

10. How might the fiscal policy agenda of the 2024 presidential election winner impact inflation and the Federal Reserve's rate decisions leading up to September 2026?

Core Goods PCE Price Impact3.1% increase by February 2026 (Federal Reserve research) [1]
FOMC Target Range3.50%–3.75% (late April 2026) [2][3]
Market Expectation for Sep 202674% probability of "No change" (Polymarket) [4]
A potential Trump presidency could introduce inflationary fiscal policies. A Donald Trump administration is expected to prioritize corporate tax reduction and the extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) [5][6][7]. These measures are generally considered inflationary due to their potential to increase demand or widen deficits [6][7]. Tariffs, another key policy component, could further escalate goods prices, delaying disinflation and potentially hindering Federal Reserve rate cuts [6]. Federal Reserve research, reported in April 2026, indicated that tariffs implemented through November 2025 contributed to a 3.1% increase in core goods Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices by February 2026, accounting for almost all "excess inflation" in this category [1]. This suggests tariffs could sustain elevated inflation, necessitating a tighter monetary policy environment through September 2026 [1].
The Federal Reserve is holding rates steady, balancing inflation and labor market conditions. As of late April 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained its federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% [2][3]. Policy discussions continue to weigh persistent inflation against a softening labor market [2]. The timing of any rate cuts, whether before or after September 2026, will depend on the progression of disinflation [2]. The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections from March 18, 2026, shows a 2026 federal funds rate midpoint of 3.4%, implying that scenarios leading into September 2026 are likely to involve no change or only minor adjustments unless inflation data dictates otherwise [8]. Market expectations from Polymarket corroborate this, showing a 74% probability of "No change" by September 2026, indicating an outlook of continued monetary restraint or very modest easing [4].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Federal Reserve Research Confirms Trump Tariffs Drove Excess Inflation In 2025: 'Dollar-For-Dollar' Hit - - Benzingabenzinga.com
  2. 2Fed interest rate decision April 2026: Fed holds rates steady amid dissentcnbc.com
  3. 3Federal Reserve Board - Implementation Note issued April 29, 2026federalreserve.gov
  4. 4Fed Decision in September? Trading Odds & Predictions 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  5. 5Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election: NPRnpr.org
  6. 6How the 2024 election results may affect the economy | EY – US | EY - USey.com
  7. 7Republican sweep gives Trump power to slash taxes, may strain deficitsreuters.com
  8. 8The Fed - March 18, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible versionfederalreserve.gov

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The market-implied post-meeting fed-funds midpoint after the Sep 16, 2026 FOMC decision is shown around 3.13% [1]. This contrasts with the federal funds effective rate of 3.64% as of May 7, 2026, which corresponds to the prevailing target range of 3.50%–3.75% [2][3]. The CME FedWatch Tool is explicitly designed to show probabilities of FOMC target rate moves based on 30-day Fed Funds futures pricing [4].
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC calendar shows the Sep 2026 decision meeting is associated with Sep 15–16, 2026, with the Sep 16 date referenced for the decision materials [5]. A prediction market for the “Fed decision in September?” shows “No change” at 74% and “25 bps decrease” at 19% regarding the Sep 2026 FOMC statement outcome [6].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: September 16, 2026
  • Expiration: September 23, 2026
  • Closes: September 16, 2026
Sources (6)
  1. 1Fed Rate Odds: 2026 FOMC Meeting Probabilitiesrateprobability.com
  2. 2Federal Reserve Board - H.15 - Selected Interest Rates (Daily) - May 07, 2026federalreserve.gov
  3. 3Effective Federal Funds Rate - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORKnewyorkfed.org
  4. 4CME FedWatch Tool User Guidecmegroup.com
  5. 5The Fed - Meeting calendars and informationfederalreserve.gov
  6. 6Fed Decision in September? Trading Odds & Predictions 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 6 resolved YES, 14 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXFED-26APR-T5.25: NO (Apr 29, 2026)
  • KXFED-26APR-T5.00: NO (Apr 29, 2026)
  • KXFED-26APR-T4.75: NO (Apr 29, 2026)
  • KXFED-26APR-T4.50: NO (Apr 29, 2026)
  • KXFED-26APR-T4.25: NO (Apr 29, 2026)