Above 3.50%
Market Model 83.0% 68.9%
Above 3.75%
Market Model 23.0% 13.5%
Topic tracker · Economics
Fed funds rate
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 4 so far (2 live, 2 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Fed funds rate markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated June 16, 2026
Live markets
Above 3.50%
Market Model 42.0% 21.8%
Above 3.25%
Market Model 54.0% 30.5%
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed funds rate after Jun 2026 meeting? | June 17, 2026 | 99.3% vs 99.0% | Report → |
| Fed funds rate after Mar 2026 meeting? | March 18, 2026 | 1.0% vs 1.0% | Report → |
