December 2026 Fed Combo · Rate and Dissents

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) could maintain current interest rates at its December 8–9, 2026 meeting if key inflation metrics show clear deceleration. This decision would be primarily informed by October and November core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, demonstrating a clear deceleration towards the Fed's 2% objective trajectory ^[1][2][3]. The October CPI report is scheduled for release on November 10, with the October PCE inflation report following on November 25 ^[3]. The November 25 PCE release is particularly significant as it represents the latest PCE inflation data available before the meeting, as the November CPI release on December 10 typically cannot inform a decision made one day prior ^[1][3][4]. The September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicated median 2026 PCE inflation at 3.7% and core PCE inflation at 3.4% ^[1].

Substantial weakening in the labor market would also support a rate hold, concurrently with decelerating inflation ^[1][2][3]. Crucial employment data points preceding the meeting include the September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on November 3, October payrolls and unemployment in the November 6 Employment Situation report, October JOLTS on December 1, and November payrolls and unemployment in the December 4 Employment Situation report ^[5][3]. A rate hold would be more defensible if labor market readings show substantial weakening, characterized by slower payroll growth in October and November, unemployment rising from or above the 4.1% SEP benchmark, weakening JOLTS openings and/or quits, and moderating wage pressure ^[1][2][3]. Conversely, a combination of persistent inflation alongside resilient employment conditions would argue against a decision to hold rates steady ^[1][2][3].

The September 2026 SEP primarily drives December hike expectations. The consensus for a December 2026 federal-funds-rate hike is largely underpinned by the September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which set the median year-end federal-funds-rate projection at 4.1% ^[1][2][3]. This projection implies an additional 25-basis-point hike by year-end, most likely at the December meeting, given the actual post-September target midpoint was 3.875% ^[1][2][3]. Furthermore, the September SEP's outlook supported a restrictive-policy stance, with the median 2026 PCE inflation forecast revised up to 3.7% from 3.6% in June, and GDP growth revised up to 2.3% ^[1][8][3]. The SEP's dot distribution also indicated a more hawkish bias, as 12 of 18 participants projected a year-end 2026 funds rate at least 25 basis points above the then-current range ^[1][8][3].

FOMC statements and market data reinforce December hike consensus. This expectation for a December hike was reinforced by ongoing concerns about elevated inflation, resilient demand, and significant support for an increase within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ^[9][4][5]. Chair Kevin Warsh repeatedly emphasized that inflation remained elevated and domestic spending was resilient, signaling a need for timely action to return to 2% inflation ^[3][5]. While the October 27–28 FOMC meeting held the target range, Governors Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, underscoring persistent committee support for an increase ^[5]. As of November 1, market pricing strongly favored a December hike, with broad rate-decision summaries indicating a 69%-70% probability for a 25-basis-point December increase ^[4][5][6][7].

Governors Lisa Cook and President Beth Hammack demonstrated hawkish stances in H2 2026. At the October 28 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, both expressed a preference for a 25-basis-point hike, ultimately dissenting from the meeting's decision to hold rates steady ^[1][2][3][4]. President Hammack had previously dissented for a hike in July, while Governor Cook's October dissent was notably her first ^[5][1][6][2]. However, at the September 2026 meeting, both Cook and Hammack joined the other 10 voting members in a unanimous vote for a 25-basis-point hike, showing no dissent at that time ^[5][6].

President Goolsbee, a non-voting member, lacked a formal record. Austan Goolsbee served as a non-voting FOMC participant in 2026, meaning he does not have a formal H2 2026 voting record for comparison with Governor Cook or President Hammack ^[5][6]. While the initial premise identified Goolsbee as a dove, an available policy briefing indicates he leans hawkish, not dovish, and a September report stated his remarks discussed inflation risks without committing to another hike ^[5][6]. Consequently, Goolsbee could not provide a countervailing formal vote in this comparison ^[5][1][6][2].

Market probabilities indicate potential for future hawkish dissents in December. As of November 1, 2026, the market for December dissent priced Governor Cook and President Hammack among the more likely individual dissenters, each with approximately a 14–15% probability ^[7][8][9]. It is important to note, however, that this figure represents a market-implied probability rather than concrete evidence of their future voting intentions.

Key economic data releases are scheduled between FOMC meetings. The period for consideration runs from the October 27–28, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting through the December 8–9, 2026 FOMC meeting ^[1][2]. During the initial part of this timeframe, key market-moving economic data releases include the international trade in goods and services for September, set for November 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET ^[6][5]. This is followed by the Employment Situation report for October 2026, which will be released on Friday, November 6, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET ^[3][7][5].

Significant inflation and GDP data precede the December FOMC. The Consumer Price Index for October 2026, alongside October real earnings, is scheduled for Tuesday, November 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET ^[3][4][5]. The Producer Price Index for October 2026 will then be released on Friday, November 13, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET ^[3][8][5]. Later in November, specifically on the 25th at 8:30 a.m., the second estimate for Q3 GDP, corporate profits for Q3, and Personal Income and Outlays for October are expected ^[6][9][5]. As the December meeting approaches, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for October 2026 is set for December 1, 2026 ^[3][5], with the Employment Situation for November 2026 following on December 4, 2026 ^[3][5].

Critical economic indicators will not be available before December’s decision. The Consumer Price Index for November 2026 is scheduled for release on December 10, 2026 ^[3][4], which is after the December FOMC meeting concludes. Similarly, the Producer Price Index for November 2026 is set for December 15, 2026 ^[3][8]. Additionally, the international trade in goods and services data for October, slated for release on the first day of the December meeting, may not be consistently incorporated into the decision-making process ^[6][5].

Direct historical comparison between market and survey forecasts is challenging. Historical studies generally do not directly compare CME FedWatch market-implied probabilities with economist surveys for year-end FOMC rate decisions because survey and market-implied forecasts measure different objects, requiring identical horizons, outcome definitions, and forecast vintages for a direct comparison ^[4][3]. While a 2026 Federal Reserve staff paper did compare a prediction market to professional forecasts, this evidence pertains specifically to Kalshi, not CME FedWatch ^[3]. A relevant historical study spanning 232 scheduled FOMC meetings from May 1994 to March 2024 indicated that CME FedWatch predicts the next FOMC target-rate decision with approximately 84% accuracy one meeting ahead and 88% accuracy 30 days prior ^[1][2]. This accuracy is higher than the roughly 75% for conventional fed-funds-futures forecasts, with identified errors mainly occurring in the 1990s and during challenging periods like the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID shock ^[1][2].

Longer horizons significantly reduce CME FedWatch accuracy. However, the accuracy of CME FedWatch drops significantly to about 48.6% for the fourth meeting ahead and 58.9% at a 120-day horizon ^[1][2]. CME FedWatch, derived from 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices, reflects traders' implied probabilities and represents a market-implied distribution rather than a survey consensus ^[5][6]. Earlier research warns that fed-funds futures are not always perfect predictors, potentially overstating expected rates in rising markets and understating them in falling ones, and their prices can include averaging, risk premia, and assumptions about rate-move sizes ^[7]. Regarding federal-funds-rate forecasts approximately 150 days in advance, the 2026 Federal Reserve staff paper observed that Kalshi's mean absolute error was very similar to that of professional forecasters ^[3]. Closer to the meeting date, Kalshi's mode showed improved performance, achieving zero average absolute error on the day before the decision, unlike survey and fed-funds-futures measures ^[3]. For the December 2026 context, a Reuters poll conducted October 16 reported that all 100 economists anticipated a December hike, while CME-linked reporting on October 28 noted futures still priced further tightening ^[8][9]. This demonstrates general agreement but does not determine which forecast will ultimately be correct ^[8][9]. As of October 31/November 1, 2026, the Kalshi December 2026 combo market indicated approximately 56% for a 25-basis-point hike with zero dissents, though this contract is not directly comparable to a CME FedWatch probability as it jointly conditions on both the rate decision and the dissent count ^[10][11][12].

The final scheduled 2026 FOMC meeting occurs December 8 9, with the policy statement and decision on Wednesday, December 9 ^[1][2][3]. This is an SEP meeting, meaning updated economic projections and a dot plot will be released alongside the statement ^[1][2][3]. The October 28, 2026 decision held the target range at 3.75% 4.00% by a 10 2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike ^[4][5][6]. This leaves December as an active hike catalyst ^[4]. As of November 1, 2026, market pricing heavily favors a December 25-basis-point hike to 4.00% 4.25%: futures-based estimates were about 73%, Kalshi about 70% 71%, and Polymarket about 70.5% ^[7][8][5][9]. A hold was roughly 27% 29%, while cuts were approximately 0% 1% ^[7][8][5][9]. The September 2026 SEP median projected a 4.1% federal-funds rate at year-end 2026, compared to the then-current 3.875% midpoint, implying one additional quarter-point hike ^[10]. It also projected 2026 GDP growth at 2.3%, unemployment at 4.1%, headline PCE inflation at 3.7%, and core PCE inflation at 3.4% ^[10].

Key bullish catalysts for a hike include persistent inflation above target, officials’ tightening bias, and further hawkish communication ^[4][11]. Conversely, bearish catalysts for a hike include weaker growth or labor data, softer inflation, and officials shifting toward patience ^[4][11]. The October statement explicitly made the next move data-dependent ^[4]. The principal timeline for related communications includes: November 18, 2:00 p.m. ET, October FOMC minutes; November 25, 2:00 p.m. ET, Beige Book; November 28 through December 10, an expected communications blackout; December 9, 2:00 p.m. ET decision and SEP/dot plot; 2:30 p.m. ET press conference; and December 30, 2:00 p.m. ET December-meeting minutes ^{[1][2][4][10]}. Potential dissent watch for December includes Cook and Hammack retaining their hike preference, Cleveland’s Hammack pressing again, and possible support from officials previously associated with tightening such as Lorie Logan, Neel Kashkari, or John Williams ^[4]. The exact December vote cannot be known before the meeting ^[4].