Fed Decision in October? Polymarket
No change
Market Model 53.0% 64.4%
25 bps increase
Market Model 47.0% 34.2%
Economy Markets
Active Markets (3)
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Polymarket
0 (0 bps)
Market Model 89.0% 89.6%
11 (275 bps)
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Largest Company end of December 2026? Polymarket
NVIDIA
Market Model 67.0% 62.3%
Apple
Market Model 16.2% 15.6%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in October? Top outcome: No change | 53.0% | 64.4% | High | 61 | Refresh |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: 0 (0 bps) | 89.0% | 89.6% | High | 55 | Refresh |
| Largest Company end of December 2026? Top outcome: NVIDIA | 67.0% | 62.3% | Med | 70 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (3)
Largest Company end of September? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Fed rate cut by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 0.0% 0.9%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 63.0% 68.4%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | 74 | ||
| Fed rate cut by...? Yes refers to: September Meeting | 0.0% | 0.9% | High | — | |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 63.0% | 68.4% | Med | — |
