At least 250 billion
Market Model 7.9% 3.9%
At least 1 trillion
Market Model 4.8% 3.9%
Growth Markets
Active Markets (18)
Yes
Market Model 5.0% 3.2%
More than $1.4 trillion
Market Model 36.0% 39.9%
More than $2 trillion
Market Model 7.0% 4.0%
Recession this year? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 13.8%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 7.2% 2.5%
At least 500 billion
Market Model 5.2% 2.2%
Yes
Market Model 20.0% 13.4%
United Kingdom
Market Model 37.0% 32.1%
China
Market Model 7.7% 3.0%
$40 trillion
Market Model 98.0% 98.0%
$50 trillion
Market Model 44.0% 42.1%
Yes
Market Model 64.0% 80.5%
Above $180 billion
Market Model 15.0% 13.4%
Above $190 billion
Market Model 16.0% 13.4%
US tariff revenue for 2026 Kalshi
Above $200 billion
Market Model 64.0% 64.8%
Above $250 billion
Market Model 43.0% 45.1%
Yes
Market Model 40.0% 40.0%
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 6.2%
Yes
Market Model 11.0% 13.6%
GDP growth in 2026? Kalshi
0.0 or below
Market Model 2.5% 4.9%
4.6 to 5.0
Market Model 1.0% 3.5%
Yes
Market Model 28.0% 24.5%
Yes
Market Model 57.0% 59.0%
Q1 2026
Market Model 14.0% 50.0%
Q4 2025
Market Model 9.0% 30.0%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 7.9% | 3.9% | High | 68 | Refresh |
| Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 5.0% | 3.2% | Med | 63 | Refresh |
| How rich will Elon Musk get before 2027? Top outcome: More than $1.4 trillion | 36.0% | 39.9% | High | 71 | Refresh |
| Recession this year? Yes refers to: Starts | 9.0% | 13.8% | Med | 60 | Refresh |
| How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 7.2% | 2.5% | High | 71 | Refresh |
| China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030? Yes refers to: By 2030 | 20.0% | 13.4% | Med | 66 | Refresh |
| Which countries will have a recession before 2027? Top outcome: United Kingdom | 37.0% | 32.1% | Med | 58 | Refresh |
| Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration Top outcome: $40 trillion | 98.0% | 98.0% | High | 74 | Refresh |
| Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year? Yes refers to: For tax year 2026 | 64.0% | 80.5% | Med | 74 | Refresh |
| US manufacturing construction spending in December 2026 Top outcome: Above $180 billion | 15.0% | 13.4% | High | 61 | Refresh |
| US tariff revenue for 2026 Top outcome: Above $200 billion | 64.0% | 64.8% | Med | 67 | Refresh |
| US credit rating downgrade in 2026? Yes refers to: Rating reduced | 40.0% | 40.0% | Med | 70 | Refresh |
| Will Kai Cenat become a billionaire before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 7.0% | 6.2% | Med | 66 | Refresh |
| Will Trump bring back manufacturing? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 11.0% | 13.6% | Med | 58 | Refresh |
| GDP growth in 2026? Top outcome: 0.0 or below | 2.5% | 4.9% | High | 64 | Refresh |
| Will a NYSE marketwide circuitbreaker happen this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 28.0% | 24.5% | Med | 79 | Refresh |
| Will there be a Trump economic boom? Yes refers to: Above 5% | 57.0% | 59.0% | Med | 68 | Refresh |
| When will the next US recession start? Top outcome: Q1 2026 | 14.0% | 50.0% | Med | 68 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (13)
Yes
Market Model — —
Before 2027
Market Model 78.0% 75.4%
Before 2028
Market Model 88.0% 86.3%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Elon Musk
Market Model 88.0% 83.4%
Jensen Huang
Market Model 4.0% 3.4%
Yes
Market Model — —
GDP growth in 2025? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
US GDP growth in Q4 2025? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | — | ||
| When will Elon Musk become a trillionaire? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 78.0% | 75.4% | High | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| Who will be the world's first trillionaire? Top outcome: Elon Musk | 88.0% | 83.4% | High | — | |
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — |
