At least 250 billion
Market Model 7.2% 2.5%
At least 500 billion
Market Model 5.2% 2.2%
Growth Markets
Active Markets (20)
Yes
Market Model 20.0% 13.4%
United Kingdom
Market Model 37.0% 32.1%
China
Market Model 7.7% 3.0%
$40 trillion
Market Model 98.0% 98.0%
$50 trillion
Market Model 44.0% 42.1%
More than $900 Billion
Market Model 98.0% 98.0%
More than $1 trillion
Market Model 92.0% 92.0%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 19.5%
Yes
Market Model 64.0% 80.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 78.0% 75.4%
Before 2028
Market Model 88.0% 86.3%
Above $180 billion
Market Model 15.0% 13.4%
Above $190 billion
Market Model 16.0% 13.4%
Above $200 billion
Market Model 64.0% 64.8%
Above $250 billion
Market Model 43.0% 45.1%
Yes
Market Model 1.0% 1.1%
Yes
Market Model 40.0% 40.0%
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 6.2%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 10.0% 5.0%
At least 1 trillion
Market Model 6.0% 2.8%
Yes
Market Model 11.0% 13.6%
Elon Musk
Market Model 88.0% 83.4%
Jensen Huang
Market Model 4.0% 3.4%
0.0 or below
Market Model 2.5% 4.9%
4.6 to 5.0
Market Model 1.0% 3.5%
Yes
Market Model 28.0% 24.5%
Yes
Market Model 57.0% 59.0%
Q1 2026
Market Model 14.0% 50.0%
Q4 2025
Market Model 9.0% 30.0%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 7.2% | 2.5% | High | $202,273.98 | Refresh |
| China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030? Yes refers to: By 2030 | 20.0% | 13.4% | Med | $85,350.71 | Refresh |
| Which countries will have a recession before 2027? Top outcome: United Kingdom | 37.0% | 32.1% | Med | $159,645.26 | Refresh |
| Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration Top outcome: $40 trillion | 98.0% | 98.0% | High | $71,779.95 | Refresh |
| How rich will Elon Musk get before 2027? Top outcome: More than $900 Billion | 98.0% | 98.0% | High | $403,384.61 | Refresh |
| Recession this year? Yes refers to: Starts | 14.0% | 19.5% | Med | $2,217,268.81 | Refresh |
| Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year? Yes refers to: For tax year 2026 | 64.0% | 80.5% | Med | $9,292.91 | Refresh |
| When will Elon Musk become a trillionaire? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 78.0% | 75.4% | High | $404,259.7 | Refresh |
| US manufacturing construction spending in December 2026 Top outcome: Above $180 billion | 15.0% | 13.4% | High | $177 | Refresh |
| US tariff revenue for 2026 Top outcome: Above $200 billion | 64.0% | 64.8% | Med | $6,833.58 | Refresh |
| Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 1.0% | 1.1% | Med | $2,362 | Refresh |
| US credit rating downgrade in 2026? Yes refers to: Rating reduced | 40.0% | 40.0% | Med | $46,129.04 | Refresh |
| Will Kai Cenat become a billionaire before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 7.0% | 6.2% | Med | $1,405 | Refresh |
| How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 10.0% | 5.0% | High | $69,966 | Refresh |
| Will Trump bring back manufacturing? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 11.0% | 13.6% | Med | $18,754 | Refresh |
| Who will be the world's first trillionaire? Top outcome: Elon Musk | 88.0% | 83.4% | High | $171,344 | Refresh |
| GDP growth in 2026? Top outcome: 0.0 or below | 2.5% | 4.9% | High | $64,899 | Refresh |
| Will a NYSE marketwide circuitbreaker happen this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 28.0% | 24.5% | Med | $55,846 | Refresh |
| Will there be a Trump economic boom? Yes refers to: Above 5% | 57.0% | 59.0% | Med | $136,854 | Refresh |
| When will the next US recession start? Top outcome: Q1 2026 | 14.0% | 50.0% | Med | $408,091 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (10)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | $5,236.64 | ||
| — | — | High | $26,726.54 | ||
| — | — | High | $4,130.2 | ||
| — | — | High | $24,530.8 | ||
| — | — | Med | $5,719 | ||
| — | — | Med | $2,593,605 | ||
| — | — | Med | $3,417,113 | ||
| — | — | Med | $11,658,168 | ||
| — | — | Med | $365,355 | ||
| — | — | Med | $178,498 |
