ISM Manufacturing PMI in April 2026

March 2026 regional manufacturing surveys reported varied New Orders sub-indices. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated a New Orders sub-index of -7.9 ^[1], while the Philly Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey reported -4.3 ^[2]. Conversely, the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey showed a positive New Orders sub-index of 15 ^[3], and the Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey recorded 4.2 ^[4].

A precise weighted average composite figure is not calculable from the provided data. This is because the specific weighting schemes or factors necessary for such a calculation are not available in the given sources [1-10]. Therefore, a consolidated composite figure using a weighted average cannot be computed with the current information.

Regional manufacturing surveys generally offer insights into national manufacturing conditions. These surveys are widely recognized as leading indicators that often precede the ISM New Orders Index ^[5]. Specifically, the New Orders components within these surveys provide valuable insight into broader manufacturing demand, having demonstrated a historical correlation with the national ISM New Orders Index ^[5].

The 'Inventories' and 'Customers' Inventories' indexes showed distinct values in early 2026. In February 2026, the 'Inventories' index was 48.6 percent ^[1], while the 'Customers' Inventories' index stood at 50.1 percent ^[1], resulting in a spread of -1.5 percentage points. For March 2026, the 'Inventories' index increased to 49.3 percent ^[2], and the 'Customers' Inventories' index rose to 52.0 percent ^[2], leading to a wider spread of -2.7 percentage points.

The spread between these inventory indexes notably widened during this period. Comparing these figures, the spread between the 'Inventories' index and the 'Customers' Inventories' index widened from -1.5 percentage points in February 2026 to -2.7 percentage points in March 2026. This indicates that customers' inventories increased relative to manufacturers' inventories during these months. For both February and March 2026, the 'Customers' Inventories' index remained above the 50 percent threshold, which often signals that inventories are considered "too high" ^[1].

Historically, a widening negative spread typically signals a future manufacturing deceleration. An increasing level of customers' inventories relative to manufacturers' inventories, as evidenced by a widening negative spread in this context, suggests that customers are well-stocked and may reduce future orders. This situation is typically viewed as a bearish signal for future manufacturing demand and generally precedes a deceleration in the Manufacturing PMI in the following month ^[3]. High customer inventories reduce the urgency for new orders, contributing to this expected slowdown ^[3].

Both Prices and Supplier Deliveries indices showed increases in Q1 2026. During the first quarter of 2026, the ISM Manufacturing PMI's 'Prices' sub-index, reflecting input costs, consistently and rapidly rose from 60.1% in January ^[1] to 70.5% in March ^[2]. Concurrently, the 'Supplier Deliveries' sub-index, which measures delivery speed, also increased, moving from 52.8% in January ^[1] to 54.9% by March ^[3]. This upward trend in the 'Supplier Deliveries' index signals a worsening of delivery delays and slower overall deliveries throughout the quarter.

External factors, not strong demand, drove slower supplier deliveries. The increase in the 'Supplier Deliveries' index during Q1 2026 appears to be primarily influenced by supply chain challenges rather than robust demand. Despite manufacturing activity expanding for three consecutive months ^[4], reports consistently highlighted that 'Supplier Deliveries continued to slow' ^[1]. This extended lead time and increased prices for manufacturers ^[5] occurred amidst commentary about 'costs, delays mount' ^[5] and 'headwinds loom' ^[6]. Specifically, rising costs and tariffs ^[2] were identified as significant contributors to these delivery challenges.

March 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI indicated continued expansion and acceleration in the sector. The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent for March 2026, signaling ongoing expansion as it remained above 50 percent ^[1]. This figure represented an increase from the 52.4 percent recorded in February 2026, suggesting an acceleration in manufacturing activity ^[2]. This quantitative progression clearly points to a positive trajectory for the sector.

Qualitative sentiment from respondents largely aligned with the positive quantitative trend. While a precise numerical ratio of positive-to-negative keywords from the "What Respondents Are Saying" section is not accessible without direct access to the full report, summaries of qualitative sentiment indicated a predominantly optimistic outlook ^[4]. Positive phrases cited include "steady growth" ^[5] and performance being "above forecasts" ^[3]. Although there was an acknowledgement of "Prices Soar" ^[3] pointing to concerns about input costs, the overall qualitative sentiment consistently reinforced the positive quantitative direction of the ISM index, affirming an expanding and accelerating manufacturing sector ^[1].

Economists forecast the April 2026 S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI at 50.5. The consensus forecast for the S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI for April 2026 is set at 50.5 ^[1]. This "Flash" report provides an early estimate of the United States' manufacturing sector health, derived from data collected from purchasing managers ^[2]. A reading exceeding 50 generally signifies expansion in the manufacturing sector, whereas a reading below 50 suggests a contraction ^[2].

Actual PMI deviation from consensus cannot be determined yet. Since the S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI for April 2026 is slated for release around April 23, 2026, the precise release number and any deviation from the consensus forecast are not yet available [Question Context]. Both the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and the ISM Manufacturing PMI are vital indicators that economists monitor to gauge the health of the manufacturing sector ^[2]. While they employ distinct survey methodologies, they typically track overarching trends within the manufacturing industry ^[2]. However, the research does not contain specific historical data on how a particular magnitude of deviation in the S&P Global Flash PMI from its consensus historically impacts the ISM PMI released a week later.