US personal spending MoM for March 2026

Aggregate weekly payrolls grew in February 2026. The aggregate weekly payrolls for total private employees index, which serves as a primary proxy for personal income growth by reflecting overall earning trends in the private sector, reached 179.9 (seasonally adjusted) in February 2026. This figure was reported in Table B-4 of the 'Indexes of aggregate weekly hours and payrolls for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector' ^[1].

The index showed 0.8% month-over-month growth. This month-over-month increase for aggregate weekly payrolls in February 2026 is calculated by comparing the February 2026 index value of 179.9 to the January 2026 index value of 178.5 ^[1]. The official Employment Situation report, detailing these results, was released on March 6, 2026 ^[2].

The Conference Board spread between current conditions and future expectations contracted in March 2026. The Present Situation Index stood at 146.9 points, while the Expectations Index was 83.2 points, resulting in a difference of 63.7 points ^[1]. This represents a contraction when compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. In December 2025, the spread was 72.1 points, derived from a Present Situation Index of 148.6 and an Expectations Index of 76.5 ^[1]. Similarly, the November 2025 spread was 71.5 points, based on a Present Situation Index of 142.0 and an Expectations Index of 70.5 ^[3]. The March 2026 spread is lower than both the November and December 2025 figures, indicating a narrowing of the gap between current conditions and future expectations.

University of Michigan survey data lacks specific sub-indices required for the requested comparison. For the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers, detailed sub-indices for 'current conditions' and 'future expectations' for both March 2026 and the fourth quarter of 2025 were not provided in the available sources ^[2]. Although an overall consumer confidence result of 52.9 for December 2025 was mentioned ^[4], the specific sub-indices necessary to calculate the spread and enable a comparison with March 2026 data were unavailable.

Light vehicle sales in March 2026 reached 16.3 million SAAR. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of light vehicle sales for March 2026 reached 16.3 million units ^[1]. This figure represented the highest SAAR observed during the first quarter of 2026 ^[1]. Other reports indicated that U.S. new-vehicle sales maintained a steady pace in March ^[2], with some sources noting sales were in line with current conditions, though potentially down from the previous year ^[3].

Sales incentive levels for Q1 2026 were not available. The provided research did not contain specific information regarding manufacturers' sales incentive levels during the first quarter of 2026. Consequently, a direct comparison between the March 2026 SAAR and any manufacturers' sales incentive levels for the quarter cannot be made based on the available sources.

Revolving credit outstanding increased significantly in February 2026. According to the Federal Reserve's G.19 Consumer Credit report, revolving credit outstanding rose by 1.2% on a month-over-month basis. The total amount reached $1,345.5 billion in February 2026, up from $1,329.5 billion recorded in January 2026 ^[1].

This expansion was primarily driven by bank-issued credit cards. Commercial banks reported a 1.4% increase in their revolving credit outstanding, contributing $14.2 billion to the overall growth. In contrast, credit unions experienced a smaller increase of 0.8% in their revolving credit portfolios, adding $0.7 billion to the total ^[1].

Tax refunds significantly increased year-over-year through mid-March 2026. As of the week ending March 20, 2026, weekly IRS tax filing statistics show the cumulative dollar amount of tax refunds issued reached $272.774 billion, with an average refund size of $3,109 ^[1]. This represents a substantial rise from the same period in the prior year, when cumulative refunds totaled $240.245 billion and the average refund was $2,841 ^[1]. Specifically, the cumulative dollar amount of refunds grew by approximately 13.54%, while the average refund size saw an increase of about 9.40% ^[1]. This notable rise in funds for taxpayers in 2026 has been described by some analyses as a "refund surge" ^[2].

BEA's seasonal assumptions may underestimate March spending impact. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) typically classifies tax refunds as "government current transfer payments to persons," which contribute to disposable personal income, a key factor driving personal spending ^[3]. The BEA utilizes historical patterns to apply seasonal adjustments to income and outlays, aiming to remove predictable fluctuations and identify underlying economic trends ^[3]. However, the observed year-over-year increase in refunds through mid-March 2026, characterized by some analyses as an "unprecedented surge" ^[4], suggests a flow of funds that could notably exceed what typical historical seasonal assumptions might anticipate. This substantial rise in refund dollars, compared to the prior year and potentially against historical seasonal expectations, could provide a stronger boost to personal disposable income and consequently to March personal spending than what standard seasonal adjustment factors alone might predict ^[2]. If what some refer to as the "Great 2026 Refund Surge" ^[4] delivers greater stimulus than embedded in the BEA's historical seasonal models for transfer payments, it could lead to higher actual personal spending in March relative to seasonally adjusted forecasts based on average past patterns.