At least 250 billion
Market Model 7.2% 2.5%
At least 500 billion
Market Model 5.2% 2.2%
Topic tracker · Economics
Government budget cuts
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 3 so far (2 live, 1 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Government budget cuts markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated June 11, 2026
Live markets
At least 250 billion
Market Model 10.0% 5.0%
At least 1 trillion
Market Model 6.0% 2.8%
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| How much government spending will Trump cut in 2025? | March 31, 2026 | 5.0% vs 1.5% | Report → |
