Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect the ADP employment change in October 2026 to be Above -25000, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Based on the provided data, this prediction market has seen minimal activity. The price began at a 92.0% probability and experienced a single significant movement on April 27, 2026, when it jumped to its current price of 97.0%. Since that date, the price has remained static. The provided context does not include any specific news or economic developments that would explain this price increase; the movement coincided with the only recorded trading activity in the market's history.
The market's trading volume is exceptionally low, with a total of only 2 contracts traded. This entire volume occurred during the single price jump to 97.0%. Such low liquidity suggests that the market's price reflects the opinion of a very small number of participants and may not represent a broad consensus. The lack of subsequent trading indicates an absence of conviction or interest at the current price level. Due to the limited trading history, establishing firm support or resistance levels is difficult. The opening price of 92.0% represents the initial floor, while the current price of 97.0% acts as the market's all-time high and a potential resistance point. Overall, market sentiment, as indicated by the 97.0% price, is highly confident in a "Yes" resolution, but this sentiment is based on extremely thin trading volume.
  • ADP National Employment Report methodology remains consistent for 2026.
  • Specific Q3/Q4 2026 GDP growth forecasts are currently unavailable.
  • Q3 2026 ISM employment sub-indices were not found in research.
  • Baseline 2026 energy price projections are available for analysis.
  • Research lacks forecasts indicating October 2026 employment directional shift.
  • No specific key catalysts influencing the market are identified.

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For the "Above 50000" market, a "Yes" resolution occurs if the ADP Employment Change in October 2026 is above 50,000, while a "No" resolution occurs if it is 50,000 or below. The outcome is verified using data from ADP.

The market opened on November 10, 2025, at 10:00 AM EST and will close once the outcome occurs, or by November 4, 2026, at 8:14 AM EST at the latest. Payouts are projected 30 minutes after closing.

Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

4. Trust Index

This scorecard was computed Nov 4, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 75 Good

“Above 100,000” made a large jump with almost no trading behind it.

Integrity risk· Thin-volume moves

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score80Good
Trade quality20% of score53Caution
Trust score75Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
72Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Thin-volume movesTrade signals · high confidence

“Above 100,000” made a large jump with almost no trading behind it.

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
48Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

7 contracts · worst first

Above 1000004
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 1250005
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above -2500027
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 7500045
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 065
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 5000066
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 25000—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
51Mixed

Some moves lacked volume

7 contracts · worst first

Above 5000034
Unconfirmed · high confidence

Unconfirmed move — light volume and/or it has partly reverted.

Above 12500065
Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

Above 10000070
Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Above 7500073
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Above 075
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Above -25000—
No trading in 41h

No trades in the last 41h — nothing to confirm

Above 25000—
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

7 contracts · worst first

Above -25000100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 0100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 50000100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 25000100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 75000100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 125000100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 100000100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
53Caution

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 53 (notional-weighted across 6 scored legs)

Above -2500027Market scoreLiquidity27Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 27
Liquidity
27 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No trading in 41h

No trades in the last 41h — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 065Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality75Rule clarity100
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
75 · Confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 5000066Market scoreLiquidity66Move quality34Rule clarity100
Why 66
Liquidity
66 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
34 · Unconfirmed · high confidence

Unconfirmed move — light volume and/or it has partly reverted.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 25000–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 7500045Market scoreLiquidity45Move quality73Rule clarity100
Why 45
Liquidity
45 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
73 · Confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 1250005Market scoreLiquidity5Move quality65Rule clarity100
Why 5
Liquidity
5 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
65 · Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 1000004Market scoreLiquidity4Move quality70Rule clarity100
Why 4
Liquidity
4 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70 · Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 4, 2026

5. Are September 2026 GDP Forecasts From Fed, WSJ Available?

Latest Federal Reserve SEP FoundMarch 18, 2026 [1]
Latest WSJ Survey FoundApril 2026 and January 2026 [2]
September 2026 GDP Forecasts StatusNot available in research [1]
Overall, September 2026 GDP growth forecasts were not found in available sources. The requested Q3 and Q4 2026 GDP growth forecasts from the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey, specifically from their September 2026 releases, were not located within the provided web research. While earlier releases of these projections and surveys were accessible, none contained the specific September 2026 data pertinent to the question.
Federal Reserve's September 2026 SEP forecasts were not accessible. Specifically, the available Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections materials were dated March 18, 2026 [1]. Despite the Federal Reserve's calendar for September 2026 indicating potential events [3], a September 2026 SEP document containing the Q3 and Q4 2026 GDP forecasts was not present among the accessible links provided.
Wall Street Journal's September 2026 survey data was unavailable. Similarly, the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey results that were found pertained to April 2026 and January 2026 [2]. A September 2026 release of this particular survey, which would include the requested Q3 and Q4 2026 GDP growth forecasts, was not identified within the research sources provided.
Sources (3)
  1. 1https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20260318.pdffederalreserve.gov
  2. 2The April 2026 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Surveyeconomicgreenfield.com
  3. 3Federal Reserve Board - Calendar: September 2026federalreserve.gov

6. Are ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI Employment Data Available for 2026?

ISM 2026 Employment Sub-IndicesNot available in provided research for July, August, or September [1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [6]
ADP Client Base Industry CoverageCovers manufacturing and various service sectors [7], [8]
Direct Comparison with ISM TrendsNot feasible for requested 2026 period due to missing ISM data [7], [8]
Specific ISM employment data for Q3 2026 is currently unavailable. Research indicates that the specific employment sub-indices for the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI reports for July, August, and September 2026 are not present in the provided materials [1], [2], [3]. While some ISM reports for other periods in 2026 were found [4], [5], the requested data points, including related employment sub-indices [6], are absent, making it impossible to determine specific trends for these months.
ADP's client base widely spans the manufacturing and service sectors. ADP provides payroll and HR solutions across a broad spectrum of industries, with a significant client base specifically within the manufacturing sector [8]. Its general "Industries We Serve" also encompasses numerous service-oriented industries [7], similar to its offerings in Canada [9]. This extensive reach suggests that ADP's client base broadly covers the goods-producing and services-producing economic activities measured by the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI reports.
Direct comparison of ISM employment trends to ADP's client base is not feasible. Due to the absence of the requested specific ISM employment data for July, August, and September 2026, a direct comparison of employment sub-index trends to ADP's client base breakdown cannot be conducted. However, ADP's client base is inferred to generally align with the sectors whose employment trends are measured by the ISM reports [7], [8]. The ADP Employment Report [10] provides broader insights into overall employment changes, drawing from this diverse client base.
Sources (10)
  1. 1ISM Registers Economic Contraction for Manufacturing in July | Manufacturing News Desk | advancedmanufacturing.orgadvancedmanufacturing.org
  2. 2https://www.ismworld.org/globalassets/pub/research-and-surveys/rob/pmi/haay202508pmi.pdfismworld.org
  3. 3https://www.ismworld.org/globalassets/pub/research-and-surveys/rob/pmi/de4d202509pmi.pdfismworld.org
  4. 4Services PMI® at 56.1%; February 2026 ISM® Services PMI® Reportprnewswire.com
  5. 5Services PMI® at 53.8%; January 2026 ISM® Services PMI® Reportprnewswire.com
  6. 6US - ISM Manufacturing & Services PMI - Employment Indexen.macromicro.me
  7. 7Industries We Serve: Payroll & HR Solutions | ADPadp.com
  8. 8Manufacturing payroll and HR software | ADPadp.com
  9. 9Who We Serve: Businesses, Industries, Partners | ADP Canadaadp.ca
  10. 10ADP® Employment Reportadpemploymentreport.com

7. How to Assess Fed Funds Rate Probability Above Neutral Estimate?

Long-run Neutral Rate SourceFOMC Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) (March 18, 2026) [1]
Implied Probability Tracking MethodFed Funds futures markets (CME Group's FedWatch Tool, RateProbability.com, Centralbank.watch, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's Market Probability Tracker) [2]
Observation PeriodSix months leading to September 2026 FOMC meeting (March 2026 to September 2026) [3]
Assessing Fed Funds Rate exceeding its long-run estimate involves key comparisons. The determination of whether the Fed Funds Target Rate will surpass its long-run neutral estimate by the September 2026 FOMC meeting requires comparing the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) median long-run projection with market-implied probabilities derived from Fed Funds futures contracts. The evolution of this probability over the six months leading to September 2026 reflects how market participants adjust their expectations based on economic data and Federal Reserve communications.
The FOMC's SEP establishes the long-run neutral rate. The benchmark for the long-run neutral estimate of the Fed Funds Rate is the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) median long-run projection, as released in its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) on March 18, 2026 [1]. This projection indicates the rate at which policymakers believe monetary policy would be neither expansionary nor contractionary in the long run, serving as the crucial reference point for comparison.
Market participants track implied probabilities using Fed Funds futures data. The implied probability of the Fed Funds Target Rate being above this long-run neutral estimate is tracked through data from Fed Funds futures markets. Platforms such as the CME Group's FedWatch Tool [2], RateProbability.com [3], Centralbank.watch [4], and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's Market Probability Tracker [5] aggregate futures prices to display probabilities for various target rate ranges. Over the six months from March 2026 to September 2026, daily or weekly shifts in these market-derived probabilities would be observed. Factors such as strong economic data, higher inflation, or hawkish signals from FOMC minutes [6] or speeches could increase this perceived likelihood, while weaker economic performance or dovish indications would typically decrease it.
Sources (6)
  1. 1The Fed - March 18, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible versionfederalreserve.gov
  2. 2FedWatch - CME Groupcmegroup.com
  3. 3Fed Rate Odds: 2026 FOMC Meeting Probabilitiesrateprobability.com
  4. 4Fed Rate Change Probability 2026 | FOMC Meeting Odds & Interest Rate Forecastcentralbank.watch
  5. 5Market Probability Tracker - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlantaatlantafed.org
  6. 6The Fed - Monetary Policy:federalreserve.gov

8. How Do Energy Prices Influence Hiring in Key US Sectors?

WTI Crude Oil Price (2026)$75.00 per barrel [1]
Henry Hub Natural Gas Price (2026)$3.50 per MMBtu [1]
Sector Hiring SensitivityImpacted by deviations in WTI crude and Henry Hub prices [2]
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects specific energy prices, crucial for hiring models. In its reference case for the 2025 Annual Energy Outlook, the EIA forecasts an annual average price of $75.00 per barrel for WTI crude oil and $3.50 per MMBtu for Henry Hub natural gas in 2026 [1]. These baseline energy prices are critically important for hiring models within both the transportation and manufacturing sectors, as energy costs directly influence operational expenses, output levels, investment decisions, and, ultimately, the overall demand for labor across these industries [2].
Transportation sector hiring models are highly sensitive to crude oil prices. Within the transportation sector, WTI crude oil prices are a primary determinant of fuel costs for key operations such as trucking and aviation [2]. Any deviation from the projected crude oil price directly impacts the operational expenses for transportation companies, influencing their decisions related to vehicle miles traveled, investments in fuel-efficient technologies, and overall service levels. For instance, higher fuel prices can reduce profit margins, potentially leading to slower expansion and adjustments in service offerings, which in turn affects the demand for drivers, logistics personnel, and maintenance staff [3].
Manufacturing sector hiring is significantly influenced by natural gas prices. For the manufacturing sector, Henry Hub natural gas prices, along with other energy expenses, represent substantial input costs [4]. The EIA's models for industrial demand indicate that deviations in energy prices affect production costs, the competitiveness of U.S. manufactured goods in global markets, and critical capital investment decisions [4]. For energy-intensive industries, sustained increases in natural gas prices can result in elevated production costs, reduced output, a potential decrease in capital investment, or even facility closures, thereby negatively impacting job growth and hiring [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Annual Energy Outlook 2025 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
  2. 2Annual Energy Outlook 2025 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
  3. 3https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/assumptions/pdf/TDM_Assumptions.pdfeia.gov
  4. 4https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/assumptions/pdf/IDM_Assumptions.pdfeia.gov

9. Are ADP National Employment Report Methods Changing for 2026?

ADP NER Method Changes for 2026None announced (web research) [1]
Current Methodology StatusEstablished, periodically updated [2]
BLS Alignment & Small Business CoverageDesigned for close alignment, comprehensively covers small businesses [2]
No specific methodological changes to the National Employment Report are announced for 2026. Based on available web research, the ADP Research Institute has not disclosed any particular updates to the National Employment Report (NER) calculation scheduled for implementation in 2026, specifically regarding its small business data or its alignment process with Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. The NER utilizes an established methodology to measure monthly changes in U.S. nonfarm private employment and pay [2]. While the report's methodology is periodically updated to reflect economic changes, data availability, and best statistical practices, it is specifically designed to align closely with the private payroll employment estimates from the BLS Establishment Survey (CES) [2].
The National Employment Report comprehensively covers small businesses using extensive payroll data. The NER leverages payroll data from millions of private sector employees, which provides timely insights into the U.S. labor market. This extensive dataset ensures comprehensive coverage of small businesses, a segment of the economy that is sometimes underrepresented in other economic indicators [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1ADP® National Employment Reportadpemploymentreport.com
  2. 2How representative is ADP employment data? - ADP Researchadpresearch.com
  3. 3The big deal about small employers - ADP Researchadpresearch.com

11. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 14 markets in this series

Outcomes: 8 resolved YES, 6 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXADP-26MAR-T75000: NO (Apr 01, 2026)
  • KXADP-26MAR-T50000: YES (Apr 01, 2026)
  • KXADP-26MAR-T-25000: YES (Apr 01, 2026)
  • KXADP-26MAR-T25000: YES (Apr 01, 2026)
  • KXADP-26MAR-T125000: NO (Apr 01, 2026)