Short Answer

The model sees potential mispricing: TSA avg check-ins from May 4 to 10, 2026, being Above 1.8 million at 99.9% model vs 0.0% market, suggesting that current below-average passenger data and forecast elevated jet fuel prices may lead to lower TSA check-in levels.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market has demonstrated a highly stable and sideways price trend, trading within an extremely narrow range between 90.0% and 91.0%. The price began at 90.0% and has since edged up slightly to its current level of 91.0%. This indicates a consistently high market sentiment, suggesting a strong consensus that the average daily TSA check-ins will resolve to "YES". The 90.0% price point has acted as a firm support level, as the probability has not dipped below this mark. The lack of significant volatility points to a market with a clear and unwavering expectation.
The marginal price increase appears correlated with the release of partial travel data for the resolution week. As figures for the first four days were reported, resulting in projections that the full week's average was approaching the key threshold, market confidence seems to have been reinforced, nudging the price up by a single percentage point. However, the most significant technical aspect of this market is the total traded volume of zero contracts. This lack of trading activity indicates that the price movement is not the result of active buying or selling pressure. The high initial price and subsequent absence of trading suggest that market participants are in strong agreement, and no new information has emerged to challenge the initial consensus or incentivize new positions.
  • Partial 2026 passenger data for May 4-7 is below the 2025 average.
  • Elevated jet fuel prices may drive higher airfares and reduced Q2 2026 capacity.
  • These factors likely lead to lower TSA check-in levels versus 2025.
  • TSA passenger volume trended from growth to slight decline since 2022.
  • Memorial Day 2026 will not impact May 4-10 travel volumes.

Current Context

TSA passenger volumes show daily fluctuations and early week averages. From May 4 to May 7, 2026, TSA checkpoint travel numbers were recorded as follows: 2,540,806 passengers on May 4, 2,040,845 on May 5, 2,251,410 on May 6, and 2,701,890 on May 7 [1]. This results in a partial sum of 9,534,951 passengers for the first four days, averaging approximately 2.38 million daily [2][1]. Projections for the entire week (May 4-10) suggest a full week average of roughly 2.4 to 2.5 million passengers, approaching the 2.45 million threshold [2][1].
Prediction markets indicate a projected total between 16.5 and 17.5 million. Current leading odds for the total number of TSA passengers from May 4 to May 10, 2026, are concentrated around two ranges: 16.5-17 million (27% probability) and 17-17.5 million (27% probability) [2]. These figures represent the aggregated market sentiment for the full seven-day period.
Sources (2)
  1. 1TSA checkpoint travel numbers | Transportation Security Administrationtsa.gov
  2. 2Number of TSA passengers May 4 - May 10? Trading Odds & Predictions 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the weekly average TSA airport screenings exceed 2.4 million for the week ending May 10, 2026, as reported by the Transportation Security Administration; otherwise, it resolves to NO. Trading for this market closes on May 10, 2026, at 11:59 PM EDT, with a projected payout on May 11, 2026, at 12:59 AM EDT. This is a directional event, and insider trading by employees of source agencies or individuals with material non-public information is prohibited.

Market Discussion

The initial reported average daily TSA check-ins for May 4-7 was 2,383,738 [1], with early figures, including 2.04 million on May 5, noted as potentially lowering the overall weekly average [2]. Prediction markets currently project the full week's average to be around 2.45 million [1], with Polymarket showing 27% probability for both 16.5-17 million (average 2.41 million) and 17-17.5 million (average 2.5 million) total passengers [3].

Sources (3)
  1. 1TSA checkpoint travel numbers | Transportation Security Administrationtsa.gov
  2. 2TSA avg check-ins from May 4 to 10, 2026? - Kalshikalshi.com
  3. 3Number of TSA passengers May 4 - May 10? Trading Odds & Predictions 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com

4. What has been the year-over-year growth in TSA passenger volume for the first full week of May since 2022, and what does this trend imply for 2026?

TSA Passenger Volume Growth (2022-2023)Approximately 15.4% [1][2][3][4][5][6]
TSA Passenger Volume Growth (2023-2024)Approximately 11.3% [1][2][3][4][5][6]
TSA Passenger Volume Change (2024-2025)Approximately -3.7% [1][2][3][4][5][6]
TSA passenger volume showed significant growth, then a slight decline. From 2022 to 2023, the average daily TSA passenger volume for the first full week of May (May 4-10) increased by approximately 15.4%, rising from about 2.052 million in 2022 to 2.370 million in 2023 [1][2][3][4][5][6]. This upward trend continued from 2023 to 2024, with growth of about 11.3%, as the average volume for May 4-10 went from 2.286 million to 2.545 million [1][2][3][4][5][6]. However, the period from 2024 to 2025 saw a decline of approximately 3.7%, with the average volume falling to 2.452 million from 2.545 million [1][2][3][4][5][6].
2026 passenger volumes are projected to remain stable, near 2025 levels. For the prediction market concerning TSA average check-ins from May 4 to 10, 2026, partial data for the period of May 4-7, 2026, indicates a running average in the mid-to-high 2.5 million range [5][4][6]. This suggests that the final full-week average for 2026 is likely to be close to, or potentially slightly above or near, the 2025 May 4-10 average daily level of approximately 2.45 million, indicating no significant shift from the previous year [5][4][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 12022 TSA checkpoint travel numbers | Transportation Security Administrationtsa.gov
  2. 22023 TSA checkpoint travel numbers | Transportation Security Administrationtsa.gov
  3. 32024 TSA checkpoint travel numbers | Transportation Security Administrationtsa.gov
  4. 4TSA checkpoint travel numbers | Transportation Security Administrationtsa.gov
  5. 5TSA checkpoint travel numbers | Transportation Security Administrationtsa.gov
  6. 62025 TSA checkpoint travel numbers | Transportation Security Administrationtsa.gov

5. Which major US school district calendars or national holiday schedules could significantly impact TSA travel volumes from May 4-10, 2026?

Memorial Day 2026Monday, May 25, 2026 [1][2][3][4]
US Summer Break StartTypically mid-May to end of June [5][6]
Los Angeles Unified & Seattle Public Schools Last DayJune [7][8]
Memorial Day 2026 will not impact May 4-10 travel volumes. The federal holiday is scheduled for Monday, May 25, 2026, which falls outside the specified travel window of May 4-10, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. Consequently, Memorial Day is not anticipated to directly influence TSA travel volumes during that particular week.
School summer breaks generally begin from mid-May through June across the United States. Many school districts typically conclude their academic year between mid-May and the end of June [5][6]. For example, major districts such as Los Angeles Unified School District [8] and Seattle Public Schools [7] usually have their last day of instruction in June. However, some school districts, particularly many in Utah, may conclude their academic year earlier, as soon as late May [9].
Specific district calendars affecting May 4-10, 2026 travel remain unclear. Based on the available information, there is insufficient detail to identify particular major U.S. school district calendars that would significantly affect TSA travel volumes within the May 4-10, 2026, timeframe.
Sources (9)
  1. 1bluesunhotels.com
  2. 2uscourts.govca2.uscourts.gov
  3. 3wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
  4. 4languageonschools.com
  5. 5edarabia.com
  6. 6remitly.com
  7. 7seattleschools.org
  8. 8lausd.org
  9. 9utah.govschools.utah.gov

6. How do scheduled airline flight capacities for May 2026 from carriers like American, Delta, and United compare to their actual passenger volumes in May 2025?

U.S. Systemwide Passengers (May 2025)85.2 million [1]
U.S. Domestic Passengers (May 2025)74.2 million [1]
U.S. International Passengers (May 2025)11.0 million [1]
Direct comparison of specific airline capacities and passenger volumes is unfeasible. A direct comparison of scheduled airline flight capacities for May 2026 from carriers like American, Delta, and United against their actual passenger volumes for May 2025 cannot be made with the currently available information. The provided research does not specify carrier-specific scheduled capacities for May 2026, although aggregate 2026 schedule capacity data exists from industry sources such as OAG and Simple Flying [2][3][4].
May 2025 passenger data lacks airline-specific detail. Information regarding May 2025 passenger volumes is available but is not specific to the requested airlines. U.S. airlines collectively carried 85.2 million systemwide scheduled-service passengers during May 2025, which included 74.2 million domestic and 11.0 million international passengers [1]. However, this systemwide data does not disaggregate figures for American, Delta, or United [1]. Similarly, TSA daily checkpoint volumes for the period of May 4–10, 2025, ranged from 2.1069 million to 2.7625 million travelers, but these statistics are also not specific to individual carriers [5][6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1May 2025 U.S. Airline Traffic Data Down 2.1% from the Same Month Last Year | Bureau of Transportation Statisticsbts.gov
  2. 2The Biggest Airlines in The US | OAGoag.com
  3. 3United Vs. American Vs. Delta Air Lines: Which Carrier Will Have The Most Flights In 2026?simpleflying.com
  4. 4United Vs. American Vs. Delta Air Lines: Which Carrier Will Have The Most Flights In 2026?simpleflying.com
  5. 52025 TSA checkpoint travel numbers | Transportation Security Administrationtsa.gov
  6. 6https://www.tsa.gov/sites/default/files/foia-readingroom/tsa-throughput-data-to-may-4-2025-to-may-10-2025.pdftsa.gov
  7. 7TSA checkpoint travel numbers | Transportation Security Administrationtsa.gov

7. What is the official TSA data release schedule for the May 4-10, 2026 period, and what is the typical lag time for publication?

Data PublishedPassenger checkpoint travel numbers (proxy for average check-ins) [1][2]
Update ScheduleWeekdays by 9 a.m. (Monday–Friday) [1][2]
Example Weekday EntriesMay 4, 5, 6, 7 (Monday-Thursday) for May 4–10, 2026 period [1][2]
The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) publishes daily passenger volumes on weekdays with a one-day lag. The TSA releases passenger checkpoint travel numbers, which serve as a proxy for average check-ins, on weekdays [1][2]. The passenger-volumes dashboard is consistently updated each weekday, Monday through Friday, by 9 a.m. [1][2]. This schedule typically demonstrates a one-day lag, with data from the prior day being released the subsequent morning by 9 a.m. [1][2].
For May 4-10, 2026, TSA published weekday data consistently. Specifically for the period of May 4-10, 2026, the published weekday entries included data for May 4, 5, 6, and 7 [1][2]. These dates covered Monday through Thursday, adhering to the standard release pattern [1][2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1TSA checkpoint travel numbers | Transportation Security Administrationtsa.gov
  2. 2TSA checkpoint travel numbers | Transportation Security Administrationtsa.gov

8. How might forecasts for jet fuel prices and average domestic airfares in Q2 2026 affect consumer travel demand relative to the same period in 2025?

Q2 2026 Airfare & Capacity ForecastHigher average domestic airfares and reduced flying capacity expected due to elevated jet fuel prices [1]
Q2 2025 Average Domestic Airfare$386 (down 3.8% from Q1 2025) [2]
Kalshi TSA Check-ins Threshold (May 4-10, 2026)Above 2.45 million average daily screenings [3]
Elevated jet fuel prices predict higher airfares and reduced capacity in Q2 2026. Forecasts for the second quarter of 2026 indicate that higher jet fuel prices are expected to lead to increased average domestic airfares and a reduction in available flying capacity when compared to the same period in 2025 [1]. Industry reports suggest that jet fuel will remain elevated, increasing the likelihood that airlines will transfer these higher costs to consumers through elevated ticket prices or by decreasing the number of available flights into Q2 2026 and the summer months [1]. For instance, reports from May 2026, including Yahoo Finance, directly link projected summer fare increases to jet fuel shortages and cost spikes, which are anticipated to curtail demand through higher prices, flight reductions, and additional fare surcharges [4]. A Q2 2026 airfare forecast summary further indicates a significant escalation in July, suggesting mounting pressure on average domestic airfares during the latter weeks of Q2 [5].
Rising airfares in 2026 are expected to weaken travel demand. In contrast, the average U.S. domestic airfare during Q2 2025 was $386, representing a 3.8% decrease from Q1 2025, thereby establishing a comparatively lower price baseline for demand in the previous year [2]. Given the challenges in 2026 related to jet-fuel driven fare increases and capacity constraints, discretionary flying demand is projected to be relatively weaker compared to the period of May 4 to 10, 2025 [4]. This anticipated weaker demand would consequently result in lower TSA check-in levels for the week of May 4 to 10, 2026, unless other factors emerge to support demand [4]. The Kalshi market for "TSA avg check-ins from May 4 to 10, 2026?" is designed to resolve based on whether the weekly average TSA airport screenings exceed 2.45 million, using TSA daily checkpoint throughput data for an accurate year-over-year comparison [3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Jet Fuel Prices to Stay Elevated, IATA Says | Fazen Marketsfazen.markets
  2. 2Second Quarter 2025 Average Air Fare Decreases 3.8% from First Quarter 2025 | Bureau of Transportation Statisticsbts.gov
  3. 3TSA avg check-ins from May 4 to 10, 2026? - Kalshikalshi.com
  4. 4Summer airfares set to surge as jet fuel shortage grips marketfinance.yahoo.com
  5. 5US Airfares at a Critical Inflection Point: Q1 2026 Analysis and Q2 Forecast | Farefinda Researchfarefinda.com

9. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Recent TSA checkpoint travel numbers indicate 2,540,806 passengers on May 4, 2026, 2,040,845 passengers on May 5, 2026, 2,251,410 passengers on May 6, 2026, and 2,701,890 passengers on May 7, 2026 [1]. The partial average for May 4-7, 2026, was approximately 2.38M [1]. Polymarket's total implied average for May 4-10 is approximately 2.5M, with 27% odds each [2].
TSA record highs have reached 2.8-3M daily in 2026, leading to the deployment of surge staffing [3][4]. These daily passenger volume updates are available on weekdays [5][1].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: May 17, 2026
  • Closes: May 11, 2026
Sources (5)
  1. 1TSA checkpoint travel numbers | Transportation Security Administrationtsa.gov
  2. 2Number of TSA passengers May 4 - May 10? Trading Odds & Predictions 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  3. 3TSA Deploys 1,000 Officers: How Airport Security is Adapting to Record 2026 Traveltravelandtourworld.com
  4. 4TSA Deploys 1,000 Officers to Major US Airports as 2026 Passenger Volumes Hit Record Highsnomadlawyer.org
  5. 5TSA checkpoint travel numbers | Transportation Security Administrationtsa.gov

11. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 12 resolved YES, 8 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXTSAW-26MAY03-A2.80: NO (May 04, 2026)
  • KXTSAW-26MAY03-A2.75: NO (May 04, 2026)
  • KXTSAW-26MAY03-A2.70: NO (May 04, 2026)
  • KXTSAW-26MAY03-A2.65: NO (May 04, 2026)
  • KXTSAW-26MAY03-A2.60: NO (May 04, 2026)