Avocado advertised prices this week
Short Answer
Avocado advertised prices are likely to exceed $0.90 this week, despite indications of slight downward pressure from steady supply and lower wholesale prices after last week's $0.99, with the market pricing this outcome near 88%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market re-priced almost entirely in response to a single data release from the USDA. A report for the week ending October 29, 2026, showed the national weighted-average advertised price for a conventional Hass avocado was $0.99. This figure is significantly above the contract's apparent $0.70 settlement threshold, causing the market probability to jump from 0% to 87% on October 25. The move occurred on 204 traded contracts, indicating market participants acted with conviction on the new information.
The current price of 88% reflects a high degree of confidence that the USDA's reported figure will hold for the contract's settlement. While the $0.99 price is up from $0.79 the previous week, it is down from $1.03 in the same week last year. The market has stabilized at a high probability, suggesting the USDA data is viewed as the decisive factor for the contract's outcome.
- Price likely holds above $0.90 given steady supply and lower wholesale costs.
- These factors suggest a final price slightly below $1.00 this week.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $0.90 | 88.0% | 86.5% | Steady supply and lower wholesale prices support advertised prices above $0.90. |
| Above $1.10 | 50.0% | 43.4% | Slight downward pressure from lower wholesale prices makes advertised prices unlikely to exceed $1.10. |
| Above $1.50 | 1.0% | 4.0% | Slight downward pressure from lower wholesale prices suggests advertised prices may not exceed $1.50. |
| Above $0.80 | 95.0% | 94.4% | Steady supply and lower wholesale prices support advertised prices above $0.80. |
| Above $1.20 | 11.0% | 42.5% | Slight downward pressure from lower wholesale prices makes advertised prices unlikely to exceed $1.20. |
Current Context
USDA’s latest report shows National Conventional Hass avocados at $0.99 each this week. The weighted-average advertised price for the period ending October 29, 2026, increased from $0.79 last week but remained below the $1.03 recorded in the comparable week last year [1]. Hass 4-count mesh bags averaged $3.67, and 5-count bags averaged $3.86 [1][2]. The October 30, 2026 prediction contract will settle against the USDA AMS National Conventional Summary's "This Week" weighted-average advertised price for Avocados—Hass—each [3][4]. This contract opened on October 23, 2026, at 11:00 PM UTC, and is scheduled to close on October 30, 2026, at 10:59 PM UTC [1][4]. As of an October 26 market snapshot, one platform displayed less than 1% probability for thresholds above $0.70, $0.80, and $0.90, which conflicts with the latest USDA $0.99 figure; this snapshot should be treated cautiously pending the official October 30 report [3][4].
Steady avocado supply continues, but transportation costs pose an inflation risk. Produce-industry reports indicate strong Mexican production and favorable growing conditions are supporting steady avocado supply, with medium and large fruit readily available [5][6]. The Aventajada crop transition is proceeding smoothly, and promotional opportunities are expected through November [5]. Broader inflation risk stems from transportation costs; September inflation was 3.7% year over year, while grocery inflation rose at roughly half that rate [7]. High diesel prices could increase fresh-produce prices due to long-distance travel [7]. The prior October 17–23 avocado contract resolved with Above $0.70, Above $0.80, and Above $0.90 thresholds all winning, with final contract prices listed at 99¢, 99¢, and 85¢, respectively [8][9].
The October 30 Hass-each advertised price will likely remain above $0.80. The analytical forecast, not a quoted expert consensus, suggests the official October 30 Hass-each advertised-price average is more likely to remain above $0.70 and probably above $0.80 [1][5][7]. This assessment is based on the latest USDA average of $0.99 and current steady supply conditions [1][5]. However, strong promotional activity could exert downward pressure on prices, while elevated diesel and logistics costs present an upside risk [5][7].
Sources (9)
- 1Advertised Prices for Specialty Crops Products at Major Grocery Store Outlets ending during the period of 10/17/2026 to 10/29/2026ams.usda.gov
- 2AVOCADO on sale • Starting at ➡️ $0.69weekly-ads.us
- 3Avocado advertised prices this weekkalshi.com
- 4Avocado advertised prices this week Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 5Market Report 10.22.26_Revisedproducealliance.com
- 6The Source | October 21, 2026charliesproduce.com
- 7Grocery inflation has been tame. High diesel prices may change that.marketplace.org
- 8Avocado advertised prices this week Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 9Avocado advertised prices this week Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above $1.50
📉 October 26, 2026: 86.0pp drop
Price decreased from 87.0% to 1.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the described 86.0 percentage point drop cannot be identified from the provided information, as the magnitude of the movement itself is not supported by the available data [1]. For the week ending October 29, 2026, the USDA reported a weighted-average advertised avocado price of $0.99, which is significantly below the $1.50 threshold [2]. Prediction market odds for "Above $1.50" were consequently very low, at only 3% [1]. No specific social media activity, such as posts from influential figures or viral narratives, was identified as a causal factor on or around October 26, 2026; mentions of social media were solely in the context of a historical research hypothesis [3]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this non-event.
Outcome: Above $0.90
📈 October 25, 2026: 82.0pp spike
Price increased from 5.0% to 87.0%
What happened: No evidence supports an 82.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market price for "Avocado advertised prices this week Above $0.90" on October 25, 2026; searches for this specific figure yielded unrelated results, suggesting it is likely a mistaken entry or cross-market contamination [4][5]. The underlying USDA data, released October 23, 2026, reported a weighted-average advertised price of $0.99, which was a 25.3% increase from the prior week's $0.79, causing the "Above $0.90" outcome to resolve as Yes [2][6][7][8]. No credible social media activity was identified as a catalyst for either the reported erroneous spike or the actual USDA price movement [4]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this reported prediction market movement.
Sources (8)
- 1Avocado advertised prices this week: Odds & Chart | 4Conservative Finance4conservative.com
- 2Advertised Prices for Specialty Crops Products at Major Grocery Store Outlets ending during the period of 10/17/2026 to 10/29/2026ams.usda.gov
- 3adriaferrer/Avocalypsegithub.com
- 4events at moretonscdn.prod.website-files.com
- 5Will Alaska average diesel price on October 31, 2026 be… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 6Avocado Price Prediction Markets vs USDA Retail Reportpredictionscout.com
- 7Avocado advertised prices this week Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 8Avocado advertised prices this week Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if the advertised price of avocados this week is above $1.10. Conversely, it resolves NO if the advertised price is $1.10 or less. The market begins on Friday, October 30, at 6:00 PM EDT. The provided content does not specify the exact source for the advertised prices or the precise deadline for price determination.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $0.80 | $1.00 | $0.95 | 95% |
| Above $0.70 | $1.00 | $0.92 | 92% |
| Above $0.90 | $0.83 | $0.48 | 88% |
| Above $1.10 | $0.66 | $0.74 | 50% |
| Above $1.00 | $0.74 | $0.81 | 49% |
| Above $1.40 | $0.47 | $0.95 | 47% |
| Above $1.20 | $0.69 | $1.00 | 11% |
| Above $1.60 | $0.88 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Above $1.70 | $0.82 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Above $1.50 | $0.22 | $0.83 | 1% |
| Above $1.30 | $0.52 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
The USDA's report, published October 23, 2026, identified the national weighted advertised average price for Hass avocados sold individually as $0.99 for the week of October 21–29, 2026, a figure that prediction markets have historically missed by a median of 13 cents [1][2]. While this $0.99 price represents a 25.3% year-over-year increase from $0.79, produce market commentary indicates plentiful Mexican supplies and favorable pricing opportunities are supporting consistent markets through November [2][3].
5. Trust Index
“Above $1.00” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.
Integrity risk· Thin-volume moves
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score76Good
Market integrity is low (61), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score60Caution
Trust score73Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What is the official release schedule and methodology for the USDA's 'Advertised Prices for Specialty Crops' report determining the October 30, 2026 contract resolution?
| Report Name | FVWRETAIL, Weekly Grocery Store Specialty Crops Feature Activity [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Contract Resolution Date | Friday, October 30, 2026 [1] |
| Settlement Data Point | 'This Week' weighted-average advertised price for Avocados, Hass, each (National Conventional Summary) [4][5][6] |
The USDA's specialty crops report determines the October 30, 2026 contract. The contract resolution for October 30, 2026, will be based on the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service Market News report FVWRETAIL, officially titled Weekly Grocery Store Specialty Crops Feature Activity, also known as the National Retail Report—Specialty Crops [1][2][3]. This report is issued weekly, typically on Friday, with the scheduled release for the market being Friday, October 30, 2026, subject to USDA publication timing [1]. The report's data represents one week of collection ending on the report date and includes advertisements priced from the Saturday preceding the report through the following Friday [1].
USDA collects advertised retail prices from numerous retailers' websites. The USDA describes the FVWRETAIL report as a compilation of advertised retail pricing gathered primarily from publicly available retailer sources, particularly retailer websites [1][3]. The methodology involves USDA surveying more than 270 retailers and over 29,000 individual stores by analyzing their weekly advertised features [1][7]. The specific data point for the October 30, 2026 contract resolution is the 'This Week' weighted-average advertised price in the National Conventional Summary row for Commodity='Avocados', Variety='Hass', Unit='each' [4][5][6]. It is important to note that the report focuses on advertised specials rather than everyday transaction prices [1][7].
Sources (7)
- 1Report-National Retail Report - Specialty Crops (FVWRETAIL) | MMNmymarketnews.ams.usda.gov
- 2Grocery Store Feature Reports - Agricultural Marketing Serviceams.usda.gov
- 3Grocery Store Feature Reports | Agricultural Marketing Serviceams.usda.gov
- 4Avocado advertised prices this week Oct 30, 2026 Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
- 5Avocado advertised prices this week Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 6Avocado advertised prices this week Odds | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 7Broaden Your Market View - Dive into the Specialty Crops Market News National Retail Report | Agricultural Marketing Serviceams.usda.gov
7. How do reports from the Hass Avocado Board and Mexican produce associations characterize supply volumes for the late October 2026 shipping period?
| APEAM 2026 Super Bowl Projection | 127,000 metric tons (up 11% year over year) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Week 40 US Shipments from Mexico | 6,232 metric tons (vs 20,113 metric tons in comparison period) [3][1] |
| Mexico US Shipments since July | 11% more than prior record season [4][5] |
Mexican produce associations anticipate record avocado volumes and abundant late-October supply. APEAM projects record volumes for late October 2026, specifically 127,000 metric tons for the four weeks leading up to the 2026 Super Bowl, marking an 11% increase year over year [1][2]. Supporting this trend, GLC Cerritos indicates that maturing Jalisco orchards are adding to the supply alongside Michoacán, contributing to a more consistent year-round availability [1]. The overall late-October supply is largely characterized as abundant and Mexico-led, with a significant 2026-27 Mexican crop anticipated [4][5]. Mexico has shipped 11% more avocados to the U.S. since July compared to the same period in the previous record season, and USDA reports confirm Mexico supplies the U.S. year-round, with its highest shipment share occurring in fall and winter [4][5].
Despite positive outlook, recent data shows a sharp week-specific shipment contraction. Specific reporting related to the Hass Avocado Board, cited in industry coverage, reveals a sharp week-specific contraction in shipments to the U.S. [3][1]. In week 40, Mexico shipped only 6,232 metric tons of avocados to the U.S., a significant drop compared to the 20,113 metric tons reported for a comparative period [3][1]. This specific figure, combined with reports of a producer-led harvest stoppage, introduces near-term volatility to the market, even while general reports continue to suggest plentiful late-October supply and the potential for downward price pressure [3][4][1][5][6][7].
Sources (7)
- 1GLC Cerritos builds year-round avocado supply through...theproducenews.com
- 2Michoacán y Jalisco logran año histórico: APEAM | APEAM A.C.apeamac.com
- 3Avocado strike market alert 2026facebook.com
- 4GLOBAL MARKET OVERVIEW AVOCADOSfreshplaza.com
- 5Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook: March 2026ers.usda.gov
- 6Weekly Grocery Store Specialty Crops Feature Activityams.usda.gov
- 7Avocado Price Prediction Markets vs USDA Retail Reportpredictionscout.com
8. How does the week-over-week price trend for Hass avocados in October 2026 compare to the same period in October 2025, based on USDA data?
| Oct 2026 vs Oct 2025 Price | October 2026 price 8¢ (8.8%) higher than Oct 2025 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Oct 2025 Weekly Price Change | -12¢ (-11.7%) [2] |
| Oct 2026 Monthly Price Change | +2¢ (+2.1%) from Oct 2 to Oct 23 [1] |
Hass avocado prices showed significant volatility in October 2026. Prices began at $0.97 on October 2, then increased by 12 cents (12.4%) to $1.09 by October 9 [1]. A sharp decrease of 30 cents (27.5%) followed, bringing the price to $0.79 by October 16, before subsequently rising by 20 cents (25.3%) to reach $0.99 by October 23 [1]. Overall, the price on October 23, 2026, was slightly higher, up 2 cents (2.1%) from the price observed on October 2 [1].
This fluctuation contrasted sharply with October 2025's steady decline. The previous year saw a consistent week-over-week decrease of 12 cents (11.7%), with prices falling from $1.03 to $0.91 by October 31, 2025 [2]. Comparing the two periods, the October 23, 2026 value of $0.99 was 8 cents (8.8%) higher than the October 31, 2025 value of $0.91 [1][2]. This indicates a broadly higher price level for Hass avocados in late October 2026 compared to the same period in 2025 [1][2]. These figures are derived from the USDA National Conventional Summary, specifically the "Avocados — Hass — each" row, which measures advertised retail prices [3][1].
9. What impact could fluctuations in diesel prices and grocery logistics costs have on the final advertised avocado price reported by the USDA on October 30, 2026?
| Forecasted Median Price (Oct 30) | $0.85 [1] |
|---|---|
| Price Rebound Potential (with cost increase) | Toward or above $0.99 [2][1][3] |
| Latest Benchmark Price (Oct 23) | $0.99 per Hass avocado [2][1] |
Fluctuations in diesel and logistics costs have limited short-term impact on avocado prices. While these cost changes can exert upward pressure on advertised avocado prices, their direct effect on the USDA's October 30, 2026 report is expected to be modest and delayed. This is primarily because factors such as promotions, retailer margins, existing contracts, avocado supply, and competitive pricing often dominate short-run freight pass-through [2][3][4]. The USDA's specialty-crop truck-rate report specifically links fresh-produce transportation analysis to weekly EIA diesel prices and provides refrigerated truck rate data [3][4].
Avocado price forecasts suggest a median near $0.85 for October 30. A market-based reference indicates that the median advertised price for the October 30 report could be around $0.85 [1]. Conversely, a sharp and sustained increase in diesel and refrigerated grocery logistics costs might push prices toward or above $0.99, though costs alone do not determine a precise point forecast [2][1][3]. The latest observed benchmark before the October 30, 2026 release was $0.99 per Hass avocado on October 23, based on 4,587 advertisements. During the period of October 2 to 23, recent weekly values ranged from $0.79 to $1.09 [2][1].
10. How did the final resolution of the prior week's contract (October 23, 2026) align with its pre-resolution probabilities on Kalshi?
| Settlement Price | $0.99 per avocado (week ending October 23, 2026) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Market-Implied Median Forecast | Approximately $0.96 per avocado [1][2][3] |
| Difference from Forecast | Realized price $0.03 above median forecast [1][2] |
The contract for the week ending October 23, 2026, settled at $0.99 per avocado [1][2][3]. This outcome closely aligned with the pre-resolution probabilities and the market-implied median forecast, which was precisely reported as $0.9622 [1][2][3]. The final settlement was only approximately $0.03 above the forecast median, demonstrating a strong consistency between the market's expectation and the realized price [1][2].
Immediately prior to the contract's resolution, Kalshi's implied probabilities indicated a high likelihood of the price falling within a specific range [1][2][3]. For prices exceeding $0.70 and $0.80, the probability was approximately 99%, while for prices above $0.90, it was 85% [1][2][3]. Conversely, the probability dropped significantly to 9% for prices above $1.10 [1][2][3]. The actual settlement price of $0.99, a Hass avocado weighted-average advertised price, matched the USDA AMS first-release value [1][2].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The October 30, 2026 avocado prediction market is defined by the USDA row "Avocados—Hass—each—This Week"; thresholds are $0.70, $0.80, and $0.90 [1][2]. USDA’s latest advertised-retail report, covering promotions ending October 17–29, 2026, reports Hass avocados at $0.99 each across 4,587 ads, compared to $0.79 last week and $1.03 in the comparable prior-year period [3]. Retail-ad aggregation shows promotional dispersion: Key Food advertised Hass avocados at $0.67 for October 23–29, while Giant Eagle offered them at $0.99 for October 22–28 [4]. The base-case prediction suggests a price below $0.70 is unlikely if the $0.99 average for October 17–29 is representative; the most defensible directional bias is bullish for “above $0.70,” though the exact October 30 price remains uncertain because the report window and product mix can change [1][2].
Avocado supply signals are mixed-to-bearish for wholesale prices. The USDA’s October 21–23 update indicates Mexico movement was steady, trading fairly slow, with conventional 32–40s and 70–84s prices lower [5]. A secondary USDA-based compilation puts the average wholesale price at $36.75/package on October 23, down 4.5% over 30 days [6][7]. This contrasts with an October 13 report claiming Mexican shipment tightening and a 4.9% weekly Hass wholesale increase, which should be treated as lower-confidence than the later USDA weekly update [8]. Bearish factors for avocado prices include slow trading, lower wholesale prices for selected sizes, ample supply, retailer promotions, and grocer pass-through delays [3][9][10][5].
Macroeconomic catalysts also bear watching. Cleveland Fed October 23 nowcasts imply elevated inflation for October 2026: CPI at 0.25% month-over-month and 3.75% year-over-year, and core CPI at 0.21% month-over-month and 2.48% year-over-year [9]. Key near-term macro events include the October 28 FOMC decision and press conference, September PCE/GDP on October 29, and October 30 ECI [10][11]. Bullish avocado-price factors include Mexican logistics/compliance disruptions, weather, reduced crossings or tighter supplies, and broad inflation/food-price persistence [3][9][10][5].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 07, 2026
- Closes: October 30, 2026
Sources (11)
- 1Avocado advertised prices this weekkalshi.com
- 2Avocado advertised prices this week Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 3Advertised Prices for Specialty Crops Products at Major Grocery Store Outlets ending during the period of 10/17/2026 to 10/29/2026ams.usda.gov
- 4AVOCADO on sale • Starting at ➡️ $0.69weekly-ads.us
- 5U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement Seasonal Perishable Products Weekly Updateams.usda.gov
- 6Avocados Wholesale Prices, October 2026 (USDA)us.harmanapps.com
- 7Avocados Price Today: Chart, History & USDA Data | Harmanus.harmanapps.com
- 8ProduceWire Weekly Brief — October 13 | ProduceWire Weekly Briefproducewire.net
- 9Inflation Nowcastingclevelandfed.org
- 10Economic Calendar This Week: Consensus vs Actual for Every Releasenowflation.com
- 11October 2026 economic calendar | Macro Bullseyemacrobullseye.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXAMSAVO-26OCT23-T1.70: NO (Oct 23, 2026)
- KXAMSAVO-26OCT23-T1.60: NO (Oct 23, 2026)
- KXAMSAVO-26OCT23-T1.50: NO (Oct 23, 2026)
- KXAMSAVO-26OCT23-T1.40: NO (Oct 23, 2026)
- KXAMSAVO-26OCT23-T1.30: NO (Oct 23, 2026)
