Short Answer

Alaska diesel prices are expected to exceed $6.2000 per gallon in October 2026. The market prices this outcome at 94%, reflecting the mitigating effect of the EPA's temporary Arctic Alaska diesel sulfur waiver on supply reductions.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market's sharp upward trend reflects reported Alaska diesel prices remaining well above the apparent $6.00 contract threshold. As of October 21, 2026, spot prices were reported between $6.69 and $7.01 per gallon. Broader EIA data for the West Coast, which includes Alaska, showed prices at $7.229 on October 5. The market probability rising to 94% simply prices in this reality.

Two notable price drops appear to reflect market reactions to new price data and potential unexplained volatility. The 10 percentage point drop on October 20, from 98% to 88%, followed reports confirming that prices, while still high, had eased from late September peaks. No specific news development coincides with the larger 56-point drop reported on October 16. Context from earlier in the month pointed to supply-chain pressures that would suggest price strength, running contrary to the observed drop in probability.

Since last update (~6d): The market's headline probability dropped -12.0pp, flipping the edge by +14.3pp to +2.1pp.
Model's conviction for "Above $6.9000" dropped -75.2pp, significantly widening the edge (model_led).
Model's probability for "Above $6.5000" decreased -61.8pp, widening the edge against market (model_led).
For "Above $7.2000", the market dropped -82.0pp, causing the edge to compress (market_led).
Alaska diesel prices are expected above $6.0000, consistent with bullish WTI markets.
EPA sulfur waiver, effective October 25, 2026, reduces upper-tail supply risk.
An unscheduled PADD 5 refinery outage could exert significant upward price pressure.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome	Market	Model	Why
Above $6.2000	94.0%	89.1%	The EPA waiver is expected to mitigate supply reductions, applying downward pressure on prices.
Above $6.0000	87.0%	89.1%	The EPA waiver is expected to mitigate supply reductions, applying downward pressure on prices.
Above $6.1000	82.0%	89.1%	The EPA waiver is expected to mitigate supply reductions, applying downward pressure on prices.
Above $6.3000	59.0%	41.6%	The EPA waiver is expected to mitigate supply reductions, applying downward pressure on prices.
Above $6.4000	3.0%	25.0%	The EPA waiver addresses supply risk, making significantly higher price points less likely.

Current Context

Alaska diesel prices remain elevated but show recent easing. As of October 21, 2026, reported Alaska retail diesel prices varied between $6.69/gallon in local news coverage and $7.01/gallon in a historical weekly series, a discrepancy likely due to differing survey methods or geographic scope ^[1]. The EIA West Coast district series, which includes Alaska, showed diesel prices at $7.229/gallon on October 5, 2026, down from $7.357 on September 28 and $7.456 on September 21 ^[2]. This indicates prices, while still exceptionally high, had begun to ease by early October. Prediction market indications for the October 31, 2026 Alaska AAA diesel settlement point to a central estimate around $6.85/gallon, with a middle-50% range of $6.02-$7.26 ^[3]. A specific $6.30 threshold showed approximately 41% YES probability, though other displayed thresholds were inconsistent and liquidity was thin ^[4].

Middle East supply shock drives elevated oil and diesel prices. The dominant October oil market driver is the ongoing Iran/Middle East supply shock ^[5]. The IEA reported September Brent prices at $116.89/barrel, rising to approximately $134 at the time of publication, which coincided with constrained diesel exports, low inventories, and global refinery runs near seasonal lows for October ^[5]. Goldman Sachs, however, anticipates Brent moderating to $90/barrel by December 2026 as Gulf supply adapts, while cautioning that renewed escalation could introduce substantial upside risk ^[6]. The EIA expects US retail diesel to remain above $6/gallon in October before gradually easing toward approximately $4.50 in 2027 ^[7].

Divergent demand forecasts cloud the outlook; supply shock remains key. Expert agency views on 2026 oil demand are unusually divergent ^[5]. The IEA projected a 2026 oil demand decrease of 2.6 million barrels/day, while OPEC projected an increase of 0.2 million barrels/day to 105.7 million barrels/day ^[5]. The EIA also projected a decline of about 2.0 million barrels/day ^[8]. For Alaska diesel through October 31, the evidence-based base case is a high-but-softening price in the $6.5-$7.0/gallon range, centered on the prediction market's $6.85 indication ^[5]. Upside risk primarily stems from renewed Middle East disruption ^[6]. Downside risks include faster restoration of Gulf exports, improved refinery availability, and demand destruction ^[5].

Sources (8)

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability

Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above $6.4000

📉 October 22, 2026: 62.0pp drop

Price decreased from 65.0% to 3.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 62.0 percentage point drop for "Above $6.4000" appears to be the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) announcement on October 20, 2026, of a temporary Arctic Alaska diesel sulfur waiver ^[1]. This policy decision, effective October 25, aimed to mitigate supply reductions of ultra-low-sulfur diesel stemming from Middle East disruptions, thereby alleviating upward price pressure and reducing the likelihood of prices staying above the threshold ^[1]. This traditional news announcement preceded and likely influenced the market movement observed around October 22 ^[2]. Social media activity was not identified as a primary or contributing factor in this price movement.

📈 October 20, 2026: 82.0pp spike

Price increased from 6.0% to 88.0%

What happened: The reported 82.0 percentage point movement on October 20, 2026, was actually a decrease (-82 points) for the "Above $7.2000" contract, not a spike for "Above $6.4000" ^[3]. For the "Above $6.4000" contract, the market showed a -20 point change, while actual Alaska diesel prices were approximately $6.53 per gallon around this date ^[3]^[4]^[5]. No reliable source identifies a specific social media post, traditional news announcement, or market structure factor that caused a probability spike for the "Above $6.4000" outcome ^[6]^[3]. Therefore, social media was not identified as a primary driver, and no specific driver for the stated spike could be substantiated.

Outcome: Above $7.2000

📉 October 21, 2026: 82.0pp drop

Price decreased from 99.0% to 17.0%

What happened: The 82 percentage point drop in the prediction market on October 21, 2026, was primarily driven by a repricing of the contract, likely influenced by updated fuel-price data ^[7]. Reported Alaska diesel prices on that date, such as $6.53/gal from AAA and $6.69/gal from Alaska News Source, were significantly below the $7.20 threshold, making the "Above $7.2000" outcome appear less likely ^[5]. No explicit social media activity or traditional news catalyst was identified as a cause for the sharp decline ^[7]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this specific price movement.

Outcome: Above $6.8000

📈 October 16, 2026: 87.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 88.0%

What happened: No available web research substantiates an 87.0 percentage point spike in Alaska diesel prices above $6.8000 on October 16, 2026 ^[8]. While rural Alaska heating-fuel prices were reported to be significantly higher, potentially approaching $9/gal by October 5 due to U.S.-Iran war-related supply-chain disruptions ^[9], statewide average diesel prices were listed around $6.30-$6.69/gal in late October ^[10]^[11]^[5]. Therefore, identifying a primary driver for the described market movement is not possible based on the provided information. There is no evidence of social media activity playing any role in such a movement, rendering it irrelevant.

Outcome: Above $6.5000

📈 October 14, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 0.0% to 10.0%

What happened: The primary driver for the 10.0 percentage point spike on October 14, 2026, was the traditional news report detailing bipartisan senators urging President Trump to reverse his recently announced Russian diesel supply deal ^[12]. This news, reported on October 14, undermined confidence in the proposed solution to the global diesel-supply shock, overriding Trump's earlier October 9 Truth Social announcement of the deal ^[12]. Concurrently, Gulf Oil adviser Tom Kloza posted on X on October 14 about "absolutely stunning price spikes" in wholesale diesel, which served to amplify market sentiment ^[13]. Therefore, social media was a contributing accelerant, primarily by reflecting and reinforcing the market's reaction to the challenging traditional news.

Sources (13)

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For a contract to resolve YES (e.g., "Above $6.4000"), the Alaska diesel price must be above the specified threshold. Conversely, a NO resolution occurs if the Alaska diesel price is at or below that threshold. Trading for this market begins on Oct 30, 11:00pm EDT, with a listed maximum payout date of Oct 30, 2026. The specific source for the Alaska diesel price data and the exact time of measurement for settlement are not detailed in the provided information.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket	Yes (price)	No (price)	Last trade probability
Above $6.2000	$0.91	$0.75	94%
Above $6.0000	$1.00	$0.73	87%
Above $6.1000	$0.90	$0.41	82%
Above $6.3000	$0.74	$0.57	59%
Above $6.5000	$0.58	$0.90	41%
Above $6.8000	$0.42	$1.00	23%
Above $6.6000	$0.78	$1.00	22%
Above $6.7000	$0.40	$1.00	22%
Above $7.0000	$0.73	$1.00	22%
Above $6.9000	$0.42	$0.78	20%
Above $7.2000	$0.20	$1.00	17%
Above $7.1000	$0.49	$1.00	12%
Above $7.3000	$0.27	$0.98	4%
Above $6.4000	$0.56	$0.68	3%

Market Discussion

Alaska diesel prices in late October 2026 were reported between $6.53 and $6.69 per gallon, showing a modest softening trend on a weekly and monthly basis, though up significantly year-over-year ^[1]^[2]^[3]. A prediction market for October 2026 implied a median price of approximately $6.85 per gallon, with a middle-50% range of $6.02–$7.26, suggesting expectations of month-end firmness or a differing contract-resolution methodology compared to contemporaneous statewide averages ^[4]^[5]. Broader energy prediction-market sentiment during October 2026 appeared bearish-to-cautious on oil prices ^[6]^[7].

Sources (7)

5. Trust Index

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up

Integrity80% of score78Good

Market integrity is low (66), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score7Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score63Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile

Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply

6. What specific geopolitical events in the Middle East could cause Brent crude prices to deviate significantly from Goldman Sachs' forecast before October 31, 2026?

Goldman Sachs Dec 2026 Brent Forecast	$90/bbl ^[1]^[2]
Upside Scenario Brent Price	Near $120-$125/bbl ^[1]^[3]^[4]
Downside Scenario Brent Price	Toward the low $70s ^[1]^[2]^[5]

Brent crude prices could significantly deviate from Goldman Sachs' forecast before October 31, 2026. Goldman Sachs' latest base case, as of October 16, 2026, projects Brent at $90 per barrel for December 2026, an increase from its previous $85 forecast, anticipating a gradual Middle East supply recovery ^[1]^[2]. However, the primary drivers for significant deviations from this forecast are renewed U.S.-Israel-Iran escalation, which would cause an upside shift in prices, or a credible ceasefire, leading to a downside shift ^[1]^[2]^[5]. Renewed escalation is specifically identified as a significant upside risk by Goldman Sachs ^[1]^[2].

Escalation, especially attacks on oil infrastructure, would raise prices considerably. The clearest event for an upside deviation is renewed U.S.-Israel-Iran escalation, particularly through attacks damaging oil infrastructure or widening the conflict ^[1]^[3]^[4]. Under Goldman Sachs-linked scenarios, Brent could reach near $120-$125 per barrel if such disruption persists ^[1]^[3]^[4]. Specific triggers include intensified attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb, which could push Brent to approximately $120 per barrel in a severe scenario ^[6]^[1]^[3]^[4]. A renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz is especially price-sensitive, as roughly one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade, about 20 million barrels per day, transited it in 2025, with bypass capacity limited to about 3.5-5.5 million barrels per day ^[7]^[8]. Direct or proxy attacks on Gulf oil infrastructure, such as facilities in Saudi Arabia or the UAE, would sharply lift Brent prices by curtailing supply ^[1]^[7]^[8].

Conversely, a credible ceasefire could significantly lower Brent crude prices. The principal downside event for Brent prices is a credible ceasefire or diplomatic settlement ^[1]^[2]^[5]. Such an agreement would involve reopening the Strait of Hormuz, normalizing shipping, removing the Iran-related risk premium, and accelerating Gulf production and export recovery ^[1]^[2]^[5]. Under these conditions, Goldman Sachs-linked downside scenarios indicate Brent could fall toward the low $70s ^[1]^[2]^[5].

Sources (8)

7. What recent supply and inventory data from the EIA and IEA supports the forecast of U.S. retail diesel remaining above $6/gallon through October 2026?

U.S. Retail Distillate Price Forecast (Oct 2026)	Above $6/gal (EIA, October 6, 2026 STEO) ^[1]^[2]
East Coast Distillate Inventories (Sept)	32% below 2021–2025 seasonal average (EIA) ^[1]^[2]
Global Diesel Exports (Sept)	700,000 barrels/day below year-earlier levels (IEA, October 14, 2026 Oil Market Report) ^[3]^[4]

U.S. diesel prices are projected to remain high through 2026. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts U.S. retail distillate prices to stay above $6 per gallon in October 2026, with the average for September reaching $6.29 per gallon ^[1]^[2]. This outlook is primarily driven by significantly low U.S. distillate inventories and persistent supply challenges ^[1]^[2]^[5]. East Coast (PADD 1) inventories, for instance, were 32 percent below their 2021–2025 seasonal average in September and are expected to remain 20 percent to 30 percent below average throughout the winter ^[5]. This regional deficit is attributed to limited refinery capacity and a strong reliance on shipments from the Gulf Coast and imports ^[5]. Total U.S. distillate inventories are projected to fall below 100 million barrels in October and are anticipated to remain below the five-year low through most of 2027, a situation compounded by seasonal refinery maintenance and increased harvest demand ^[2]^[6].

Global diesel markets face significant tightness, with inventory replenishment delayed. Independent analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA) confirms this global diesel scarcity ^[3]^[4]. Global diesel exports in September were 700,000 barrels per day below year-earlier levels, largely due to a 1.3 million-barrel per day reduction from Russia and the Middle East ^[3]^[4]. Global refinery runs are expected to reach a seasonal low in October, and gasoil supply is anticipated to fall short of demand in the fourth quarter of 2026 ^[3]. The IEA indicates that replenishment of inventories is unlikely before the second half of 2027 ^[3]^[4]. OECD gasoil and diesel stocks stood at 565 million barrels in July, which is 5 percent below pre-conflict levels and the lowest since November 2023 ^[3]. Further draws on these stocks are expected in October due to rising seasonal demand and refinery maintenance ^[3].

Sources (6)

8. How do the October 2026 oil demand growth projections from the IEA, EIA, and OPEC differ, and what are the key assumptions driving these divergences?

IEA 2026 Global Oil Demand Decline (average)	2.6 mb/d ^[1]
OPEC 2026 Global Oil Demand Growth	0.4 mb/d ^[2]^[3]
EIA 2026 U.S. Retail Diesel Forecast	$5.19/gal ^[4]

Global oil demand projections for 2026 show significant divergence among agencies. The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its October 14, 2026 report, offers the most bearish outlook, forecasting a global oil demand fall of 2.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) on average in 2026, bringing the total to 102.4 mb/d. This includes a projected 2.5 mb/d year-on-year decline in the fourth quarter of 2026 ^[1]. Conversely, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), in its October 13, 2026 report, presents the most bullish view, projecting global demand growth of approximately 0.4 mb/d for 2026 ^[2]^[3]. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its October 6, 2026 forecast, is materially less bearish than the IEA, although its exact global demand growth figure for October is not explicitly stated in the provided extract ^[5].

These agencies’ divergent forecasts stem from distinct underlying assumptions. The IEA attributes its pessimistic stance to restricted product availability resulting from conflict, soaring fuel prices, and a weakening economic outlook, assuming prolonged supply disruptions, very high diesel prices, demand destruction, and macroeconomic deterioration ^[1]. OPEC's more optimistic view emphasizes continued economic expansion and resilient non-OECD consumption, particularly in China, India, and Other Asia, with demand supported by various sectors like transportation fuels and industrial activity, under the assumption that disruptions are temporary and global growth largely prevails ^[2]^[3]^[6]^[7]^[8]. The EIA anticipates partial logistical normalization and increased Middle East exports despite ongoing constraints, forecasting Brent crude at $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 due to exceptionally tight inventories and diesel markets ^[8]^[5]^[9]^[4]^[10]. This divergence holds relevance for the Alaska diesel-price prediction market, as the EIA forecasts U.S. retail diesel at $5.19 per gallon for 2026, and above $6 per gallon in October, noting critically low East Coast distillate stocks ^[4]^[11]^[1].

Sources (11)

9. Which weekly EIA petroleum datasets will be released before the October 31, 2026 resolution date, and how do they historically correlate with the AAA Alaska diesel price benchmark?

Last WPSR releases before resolution	October 21 and October 28, 2026 ^[1]^[2]^[3]
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update release	October 27, 2026 ^[4]^[5]
Historical correlation coefficient with AAA Alaska diesel	Cannot be calculated from available sources ^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9]

The EIA will release several key petroleum datasets before October 31, 2026. These include the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) scheduled for October 21 and October 28, which will provide data for the weeks ending October 16 and October 23 respectively ^[1]^[2]^[3]. The WPSR includes relevant datasets such as weekly supply estimates, petroleum balance sheets, refinery utilization, crude and product stocks (specifically distillate stocks), and consumption estimates ^[10]^[4]. Additionally, the Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update will be released on October 27, featuring weekly on-highway diesel prices by PAD district and selected states, though Alaska is not specifically displayed in the available extract ^[4]^[5]. The October 28 WPSR release represents the final standard WPSR available before the October 31, 2026 resolution date ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[11].

Historical correlation between EIA data and AAA Alaska diesel prices cannot be determined. The available research does not provide sufficient information to calculate a historical correlation coefficient between these EIA datasets and the AAA Alaska diesel price benchmark ^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9]. Specifically, the AAA search results offer scattered historical narrative observations and current comparisons but lack a downloadable historical Alaska weekly diesel data series that could be paired with EIA weekly variables for a defensible numeric calculation ^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9]. While the AAA Alaska series indicates current diesel price levels and national context, it does not establish a historical correlation with EIA data ^[12]^[13]. It is important to note that the contract resolves using AAA's October 31 Alaska average diesel price, meaning EIA releases serve as potentially useful directional information rather than the direct settlement source ^[14]^[12]^[15]^[16].

Sources (16)

10. What impact would an unscheduled outage at a major PADD 5 (West Coast) refinery have on Alaska diesel supply and prices through October 2026?

Alaska Diesel Demand Coverage by Local Refineries	About 66% ^[1]
PADD 5 Diesel Stocks (October 2026)	10.4 million barrels ^[2]
PADD 5 Diesel Stocks vs. Five-Year Norm	13% below ^[2]

An unscheduled PADD 5 refinery outage would severely impact Alaska diesel supply. Such an event is highly likely to exert moderate-to-severe upward pressure on Alaska diesel prices and increase shortage and logistics risks through October 31, 2026 ^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]^[1]. Alaska is particularly vulnerable to West Coast supply disruptions because its annual refinery output fulfills only approximately 66% of its diesel demand, with the remaining supply sourced from other PADD 5 refineries via marine transport and imports ^[1].

PADD 5's isolation and limited infrastructure exacerbate disruption impacts. An outage would probably tighten Alaska diesel availability and elevate prices due to PADD 5's geographical isolation, restricted pipeline and coastwise-compliant marine capacity, and extended resupply times from other regions ^[1]. Disruptions in PADD 5 typically lead to larger and more prolonged price increases, given that inventories offer only a limited buffer ^[1]^[7]. The market context for October 2026 is already constrained: PADD 5 diesel stocks were reported at 10.4 million barrels, which is about 13% below the five-year average, while the EIA projected U.S. retail diesel to average $6.29 per gallon in September 2026 ^[2]^[6].

Outage duration and location determine the extent of Alaska's price increases. The impact on Alaska would depend on the outage's duration, location, and product allocation, with disruptions at Washington or California refineries directly serving marine cargoes affecting Alaska more rapidly ^[1]. Consequently, an additional major PADD 5 outage would most likely push Alaska diesel prices higher or sustain their elevation through October 31, 2026, rather than causing a brief, isolated spike ^[3]^[4]^[5]. A prolonged outage combined with low inventories could make prices above $7.00 per gallon plausible ^[3]^[4]^[5]. However, the sources do not provide a precise dollar increase, and confidence in the direction of price change is higher than its magnitude because the sources lack outage-specific refinery capacity, duration, inventory draw, or Alaska wholesale-to-retail pass-through estimates ^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]^[1].

Sources (7)

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Oil prediction markets for the October 31/November 1 settlement window are bullish, pricing WTI at $100 around 87%–100% and $105 around 47%–53% ^[1]^[2]. A steep tail exists, with $110 priced around 22%–23% and $115 around 6%–8% ^[1]^[2]. Key geopolitical catalysts impacting this outlook into October 31 include the potential for Strait of Hormuz normalization, the Saudi East–West pipeline restart, Iran-related sanctions or relief, strategic-stock releases, and shipping disruptions ^[2]^[3]^[4]. Market snapshots assign very high probability to a Saudi pipeline restart by October 31, but low probability to Hormuz traffic returning to normal by that date ^[2]^[3]^[4]. The probability of the U.S. reissuing Iran oil-sanctions relief by October 31 is 12% ^[2].

Bearish catalysts for diesel and crude include reserve releases, restored pipeline or shipping flows, and sanctions relief ^[2]^[4]. Conversely, bullish catalysts involve continued Hormuz disruption, failed normalization efforts, attacks or interruptions to oil infrastructure, and delayed stock releases ^[2]^[4]. A Polymarket snapshot indicates only a 27% probability for an IEA request that France release additional stocks by October 31 ^[2]^[4]. Alaska prices are particularly exposed to West Coast/PADD V refining and distribution conditions, where local logistics, refinery margins, taxes, and retailer margins can create material divergence from crude-price moves ^[5]^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9]. This includes the West Coast-excluding-California diesel benchmark reported at $6.49/gal on October 5 ^[5]^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9].

Key Dates & Catalysts

Expiration: November 07, 2026
Closes: October 31, 2026

Sources (9)

12. Keep Exploring

More Oil and energy markets See more oil and energy setups in the same theme. Browse all Economics markets Keep exploring adjacent economics markets. Track this in the app Open the live app flow and keep following this market in real time.

Recent resolutions:

KXDIESELMONAK-26SEP30-T7.2000: NO (Sep 30, 2026)
KXDIESELMONAK-26SEP30-T7.1000: NO (Sep 30, 2026)
KXDIESELMONAK-26SEP30-T7.0000: NO (Sep 30, 2026)
KXDIESELMONAK-26SEP30-T6.9000: NO (Sep 30, 2026)
KXDIESELMONAK-26SEP30-T6.8000: NO (Sep 30, 2026)

Alaska diesel prices in Oct 2026

Short Answer

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

3. Significant Price Movements

Outcome: Above $6.4000

📉 October 22, 2026: 62.0pp drop

📈 October 20, 2026: 82.0pp spike

Outcome: Above $7.2000

📉 October 21, 2026: 82.0pp drop

Outcome: Above $6.8000

📈 October 16, 2026: 87.0pp spike

Outcome: Above $6.5000

📈 October 14, 2026: 10.0pp spike

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

5. Trust Index

6. What specific geopolitical events in the Middle East could cause Brent crude prices to deviate significantly from Goldman Sachs' forecast before October 31, 2026?

7. What recent supply and inventory data from the EIA and IEA supports the forecast of U.S. retail diesel remaining above $6/gallon through October 2026?

8. How do the October 2026 oil demand growth projections from the IEA, EIA, and OPEC differ, and what are the key assumptions driving these divergences?

9. Which weekly EIA petroleum datasets will be released before the October 31, 2026 resolution date, and how do they historically correlate with the AAA Alaska diesel price benchmark?

10. What impact would an unscheduled outage at a major PADD 5 (West Coast) refinery have on Alaska diesel supply and prices through October 2026?

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

13. Related News

IEA Supply News Cools Bets on Extreme Alaska Diesel Prices

14. Historical Resolutions

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company

Short Answer

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome: Above $6.4000

📉 October 22, 2026: 62.0pp drop

📈 October 20, 2026: 82.0pp spike

Outcome: Above $7.2000

📉 October 21, 2026: 82.0pp drop

Outcome: Above $6.8000

📈 October 16, 2026: 87.0pp spike

Outcome: Above $6.5000

📈 October 14, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

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IEA Supply News Cools Bets on Extreme Alaska Diesel Prices

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