Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect egg prices to be up in March 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market shows a strong, long-term bearish trend, with the probability of egg prices rising in March 2026 declining from a starting point of 49.0% to a current price of 10.0%. The most notable price action occurred as the market approached its resolution period. From March 26th to April 1st, the market experienced extreme volatility, including drops of 30.0, 21.0, and 10.0 percentage points, interrupted by a sharp 12.0 point spike on March 31st. This period of instability saw the price swing wildly between 14.0% and 35.0% before settling near its all-time low.
Given the lack of specific news context, this late-stage volatility is characteristic of a market reacting to the final data that determines its outcome. The sharp movements suggest traders were rapidly adjusting positions as the resolution became clear. The total traded volume of 22,777 contracts indicates significant interest over the market's lifetime, suggesting conviction behind the overall downward trend. Key price levels include the initial resistance near 49.0%, which was never surpassed, and the recent support level established around the 9.0%-10.0% range.
Overall, the chart reflects a dramatic shift in market sentiment. What began as a nearly 50/50 proposition has evolved into a strong consensus that egg prices would not rise as stipulated by the market rules. The final, erratic price action represents the market's closing moments as uncertainty was resolved, culminating in the current low probability of a "YES" outcome.
  • H5N1 avian flu remains an enduring baseline threat to poultry supply.
  • Egg producers face implied year-over-year increases in major feed costs.
  • Egg-type chick hatchings declined in Q4 2025, impacting future egg supply.
  • Major producers are heavily investing in cage-free capacity for 2025-2026.
  • Retailers emphasized competitive pricing and promotions for seasonal items.

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📉 April 01, 2026: 10.0pp drop

Price decreased from 26.0% to 16.0%

Outcome: above 0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

📈 March 31, 2026: 12.0pp spike

Price increased from 14.0% to 26.0%

Outcome: above 0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

📉 March 30, 2026: 21.0pp drop

Price decreased from 35.0% to 14.0%

Outcome: above 0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

📉 March 26, 2026: 30.0pp drop

Price decreased from 49.0% to 19.0%

Outcome: above 0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to Yes if the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index Average Price Data for eggs shows a month-over-month price increase above 0% in March 2026; otherwise, it resolves to No. The market opens on March 11, 2026, and closes on April 10, 2026, with a projected payout on April 10, 2026. Trading is prohibited for persons employed by source agencies or those holding material, non-public information related to the underlying data.

Market Discussion

The market heavily favors 'No,' with only a 0-1% chance for egg prices to rise in March 2026. Proponents for 'Yes' point to recent egg price increases (e.g., March highs after February lows) and the inflationary impact of rising gas and transportation costs. However, critics argue that such data sources may not align with the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) methodology, which solely relies on wholesale prices and involves a lag before affecting retail prices.

5. Is the 2025 Avian Flu Outbreak Weaker for Commercial Poultry?

H5N1 PresenceContinues in wild birds across US [1]
Spread to Poultry PaceWeaker than past cycles [2]
Widespread Outbreak ProbabilityReduced compared to Fall 2022 [2]
H5N1 in wild birds indicates an enduring baseline threat. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 continues to be detected in wild birds across the United States, posing an enduring risk of spillover to domestic poultry [1]. Research up to 2025 identifies ongoing spatiotemporal clustering of HPAI H5N1 at the wild waterfowl-poultry interface, highlighting persistent vector-specific spillover risks [3]. APHIS's epidemiological reports for FY25 Q3 provide ongoing context for the virus's circulation [4]. The continuous presence of the virus in wild migratory bird flyways during the Fall 2025 migration season establishes a baseline threat.
2025 H5N1 spread is weaker than 2022's significant outbreak. When comparing the current situation to Fall 2022, which triggered substantial commercial flock losses and subsequent record high egg prices, the trajectory for 2025 appears different. Reports indicate that while the avian flu outbreak has spread in 2025, its pace is weaker than past cycles [2]. This suggests a potentially lower probability of a widespread outbreak reaching the same scale of devastation in commercial flocks as experienced in 2022.
Varied 2025 losses suggest a less severe national impact. While confirmed HPAI cases have affected commercial and backyard flocks in 2025 [5], the extent of bird losses has varied by state [6]. This indicates a less uniform and potentially less severe national impact compared to the 2022 peak. The weaker pace of spread in 2025 could mitigate extreme market reactions like those seen in March 2026, though egg prices are also influenced by other economic factors [7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1HPAI Detections in Wild Birdsaphis.usda.gov
  2. 2Avian flu outbreak spreads, but at weaker pace than past cycles | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.agri-pulse.com
  3. 3Spatiotemporal clustering of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 at the wild waterfowl-poultry interface: Vector-specific spillover risks in the U.S., 2022–2025 | bioRxivbiorxiv.org
  4. 4https://direct.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/hpai-epi-report-fy25-q3.pdfdirect.aphis.usda.gov
  5. 5Confirmed Pathogenic Avian Flu in Commercial & Backyard Flocks | APHISaphis.usda.gov
  6. 6How HPAI bird losses in 2025 varied by state | WATTPoultry.comwattagnet.com
  7. 7Price of Dozen Eggs in March? Trading Odds & Predictions | Polymarketpolymarket.com

6. What Are Projected Feed Cost Pressures for Egg Producers?

Corn Futures Cost Pressureapproximately +4.44% [1]
Soybean Meal Futures Cost Pressureapproximately +4.05% [2]
Feed Cost Share of Total Egg Production60-70% [3]
Egg producers face implied year-over-year increases in major feed costs. Based on CME Group forward curves for December 2025 delivery, corn (ZC) and soybean meal (ZM) futures suggest upward pressure on input expenses. December 2025 Corn futures (ZCZ25) are approximately $4.70 per bushel [1], compared to December 2024 Corn futures (ZCZ24) at about $4.50 per bushel [4], indicating an implied year-over-year increase of approximately 4.44%. Similarly, December 2025 Soybean Meal futures (ZMZ25) are priced around $385.0 per short ton [2], while December 2024 Soybean Meal futures (ZMZ24) are approximately $370.0 per short ton [5], suggesting an implied year-over-year increase of about 4.05% for this commodity.
These commodity shifts significantly impact egg producers' total expenses. Feed typically accounts for a substantial portion of total production costs for egg producers, often ranging from 60% to 70% [3]. Corn primarily serves as the energy source in layer feed formulations, with soybean meal providing the main protein component [6]. Consequently, these projected increases in corn and soybean meal futures prices for December 2025 directly point to higher operational expenses for egg producers due to rising overall feed costs.
Sources (6)
  1. 1Corn Dec '25 Futures Price - Barchart.combarchart.com
  2. 2Soybean Meal Dec '25 (ZMZ25)barchart.com
  3. 3https://www.eggindustrycenter.org/media/cms/Costs_and_Prices_for_December_2023__36ED6C7DE3179.pdfeggindustrycenter.org
  4. 4Corn Dec '24 Futures Price - Barchart.combarchart.com
  5. 5Soybean Meal Dec '24 Futures Price - Barchart.combarchart.com
  6. 6Cost-Effective Layer Feed Formulas - Best Ingredients and Ratios to Increase Egg Productionabcmach.com

7. What are the trends in US egg-type chick production in Q4 2025?

October 2025 Egg-type Chicks Hatched57.6 million (6% decrease from October 2024) [1]
November 2025 Egg-type Chicks Hatched56.4 million (6% decline from November 2024) [2]
January 1, 2026 Eggs in Incubators51.5 million (6% decrease from January 1, 2025) [2]
Egg-type chick hatchings consistently declined in Q4 2025 compared to the prior year. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the number of egg-type chicks hatched in the U.S. showed a consistent decrease from the same period in 2024. October 2025 reported 57.6 million egg-type chicks hatched, a 6% reduction from October 2024 [1]. This downward trend continued into November 2025, with 56.4 million chicks hatched, marking a 6% decline from November 2024 [2]. By December 2025, the figure further dropped to 54.0 million, representing a 7% decrease from December 2024 [2].
Eggs in incubators also declined, indicating a future reduction in egg supply. As a key leading indicator for future laying hen populations, the number of eggs in incubators demonstrated a persistent decline throughout Q4 2025. On November 1, 2025, there were 53.6 million eggs in incubators, which was 5% lower than the previous year [1]. This trend persisted into December 2025, with 52.8 million eggs in incubators, a 5% decrease from December 2024 [2]. By January 1, 2026, the count reached 51.5 million, a 6% decrease from January 1, 2025 [2]. These combined declining figures for both hatched chicks and eggs in incubators suggest a potential future reduction in the laying hen population and subsequent egg supply, estimated to occur around March 2026.
Sources (2)
  1. 1Egg production in the U.S. during October 2025avinews.com
  2. 2https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795695/ckeg1225.pdfesmis.nal.usda.gov

8. How are Cal-Maine Foods' Capital Expenditures Affecting Egg Supply?

FY2025 Capital Expenditures$147.6 million [1]
Estimated FY2026 Capital Expenditures$150.0 million to $160.0 million [1]
Current Cage-Free Capacity17.0 million hens (63.6% of total) [1]
Cal-Maine Foods is heavily investing in cage-free capacity for 2025-2026. The company is dedicating substantial capital expenditures towards expanding its cage-free egg production capacity for fiscal years 2025 and 2026. This strategy involves both converting existing facilities and undertaking new construction [1]. Fiscal year 2025 capital expenditures were approximately $147.6 million, with projections for fiscal 2026 ranging from $150.0 million to $160.0 million [1]. These significant investments are primarily driven by the need to meet increasing consumer demand and comply with new state-level mandates for cage-free eggs [1].
Current cage-free capacity is 63.6%, targeted for 70% expansion. As of May 25, 2024, Cal-Maine's cage-free laying hen capacity stood at approximately 17.0 million hens, constituting 63.6% of its total laying hen capacity [1]. The company's goal is to increase this proportion to approximately 70% upon the completion of ongoing projects [2]. A prime example of new construction is the Guthrie, Kentucky project, which includes building new cage-free layer houses and a new processing plant. This project is anticipated to add approximately 3.0 million hens to the company's cage-free production capacity, with production expected to commence in fiscal 2026 [2].
The company's strategy suggests expanding total cage-free production capacity. Cal-Maine's emphasis on "new construction" and plans to "increase the Company’s cage-free production capacity" [2] indicate an expansion of its total production capacity, specifically within the cage-free segment. This strategic approach signifies that Cal-Maine is actively growing its absolute number of cage-free hens rather than merely shifting existing capacity. Consequently, these capital expenditure plans point towards an expansion of cage-free supply, which is likely to mitigate any structural tightening of total egg supply from the company, even as its product mix evolves [2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1calm2025053110Ksec.gov
  2. 2Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. Announces Expansion Plans for Additional Cage-Free Production Capabilities | Cal-Maine Foodscalmainefoods.gcs-web.com

9. How Did Kroger and Albertsons Address Easter 2026 Pricing?

Kroger Q4 2025 Earnings CallMarch 5, 2026 [1]
Albertsons Q4 2025 Earnings CallApril 9, 2026 [2]
Egg Prices Decline40% by March 11, 2026 [3]
Kroger prioritized competitive pricing and promotions for seasonal items in Q4 2025. The company's Q4 2025 earnings call on March 5, 2026, emphasized a strategy of targeted price investments and promotions to boost traffic and sales, particularly for fresh produce and seasonal items [1]. Kroger reported exceeding Q4 expectations, partly attributing this success to price cuts [4]. While the call did not explicitly detail specific "loss-leader" promotions for eggs ahead of Easter 2026, Kroger's broader strategy highlighted competitive pricing to maintain customer loyalty and market share during peak seasons [1]. This approach suggests a potential absorption of costs to keep prices attractive, thereby tending to limit the pass-through of peak seasonal demand to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1].
Albertsons' earnings call occurred after Easter, precluding real-time egg strategy discussion. Albertsons Companies, Inc. scheduled its Q4 2025 earnings release and conference call for April 9, 2026 [2]. Given that Easter 2026 fell on April 5th, the peak seasonal demand for eggs would have concluded prior to Albertsons' earnings call [2]. Therefore, Albertsons' specific egg promotion and pricing strategy for the crucial March 2026 period was not discussed or disclosed during its Q4 2025 earnings call in advance of the actual demand [2]. This timing coincided with a dynamic market where egg prices notably fell by 40% as of March 11, 2026, while beef prices experienced an increase [3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2025/q4/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q4-2025-Earnings-Call-5-March-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdfs202.q4cdn.com
  2. 2Albertsons Companies, Inc. - Albertsons® Companies Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2025 Earnings Release and Conference Call Datealbertsonscompanies.com
  3. 3Egg prices fall 40% as beef prices risemarketplace.org
  4. 4Kroger tops Q4 expectationswinsightgrocerybusiness.com

11. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 3 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 3 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXEGGS-FEB26-0: NO (Mar 11, 2026)
  • KXEGGS-JAN-0: NO (Feb 13, 2026)
  • KXEGGS-DEC-0: NO (Jan 13, 2026)