Short Answer

Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that CPI in September will be Above -0.3%, with only minor residual uncertainty.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price has trended upward from a 3.0% starting probability, trading within a range of 2.0% to a high of 30.0%. The most significant price action was a sharp 18.0 percentage point spike on August 22, 2026, which moved the price from 2.0% to its current level of 20.0%. This repricing does not correspond to any specific news or data release identified in the provided context. The market appears to have established a new trading level around 20.0%, a significant departure from the low single-digit probabilities priced prior to this event.
Total volume stands at 53,322 contracts, but sample data indicates zero volume accompanied the price spike around August 22. This suggests the move occurred in a thin market and may not reflect broad conviction. Before the spike, the 2.0-3.0% range acted as a support level. The current 20.0% level now serves as the primary price point, with the prior high of 30.0% as potential resistance. The chart suggests a rapid shift in sentiment from a very low probability outcome to a roughly one-in-five chance, but the volume pattern implies this shift may be the result of a single or small set of trades rather than a widespread change in market expectation.
  • CPI Above -0.2% is likely, driven by modest shelter-led inflation by Q3 2026.
  • Labor market, wages, and producer prices most influence the September 2026 figure.
  • Volatile energy components are projected to exert a mild drag on the September CPI.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 0.6% 20.0% 10.1% While professional forecasters expect 2026 headline and core CPI inflation to average 3.5% and 2.9% respectively (Q4/Q4 basis), implying lower average monthly rates, persistent inflation concerns and sticky economic factors suggest the possibility of a higher single-month print, aligning with the debiased price. [4][5][6][7]
Above 0.4% 20.0% 10.1% The market's low probability (10.1%) for September CPI being above 0.4% aligns with professional forecasts projecting average monthly inflation rates for 2026 (0.24-0.29%) below this threshold [4,5,6,7], while general "persistent inflation concerns" [4,5,6,7] provide some rationale for a non-zero probability of an upside deviation.
Above 0.5% 20.0% 10.1% Significant upward pressure from energy or supply shocks would be needed for this outcome.
Above 0.3% 19.0% 11.7% While professional forecasts indicate 2026 annual inflation rates that imply monthly averages near the 0.3% threshold [4][5][6][7], suggesting the market's low probability for exceeding it could be fair, the persistent and sticky nature of inflation noted in the forecasts points to a higher likelihood of a monthly reading above 0.3%.
Above 0.0% 52.0% 51.4% A balance of economic factors suggests September's CPI could be flat or slightly positive.

Current Context

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September 2026 CPI. The report is scheduled for October 14, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET [1]. Preceding this, the August 2026 CPI report is due on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET [2][3]. This August data holds particular significance, releasing five days before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16, 2026 [2]. The September FOMC meeting is a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) meeting where the committee updates its economic forecasts and rate path expectations, influenced by incoming data such as the August CPI print [4].
Inflation expectations for 2026 remain elevated, though some indicators show moderation. Professional forecasters anticipate 2026 headline and core CPI inflation to average 3.5% and 2.9% respectively on a Q4/Q4 basis [5]. These forecasts reflect concerns that inflation may persist due to factors including tariff pressures, fiscal policy, and labor market conditions [5][6][7][8]. However, the Cleveland Fed's Q3 2026 survey of U.S. business leaders reported a projected CPI increase of 3.3% over the next 12 months, a decrease from their 3.7% forecast in April 2026 [9]. Similarly, the NY Fed’s July 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations saw median one-year-ahead inflation expectations tick down by 0.1 percentage point to 3.6% [10]. Prediction markets currently show varying probabilities for core CPI outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in inflation trends [11]. The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcasting model provides real-time estimates for August 2026, but does not yet publicly display formal nowcasts for September 2026 [12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Schedule of Releases for the Consumer Price Indexbls.gov
  2. 2US CPI Report September 2026: Date, Time & What to Expect | Finance Calendarfinancecalendar.com
  3. 3Schedule of Selected Releases for September 2026data.bls.gov
  4. 4FOMC Rate Decision September 2026: Date, Time & What to Expect | Finance Calendarfinancecalendar.com
  5. 5Second Quarter 2026 Survey of Professional Forecastersphiladelphiafed.org
  6. 6Economic Forecast for the US Economyconference-board.org
  7. 7Outlook 3Q 2026nylim.com
  8. 8The risk of higher US inflation in 2026piie.com
  9. 9Cleveland Fed survey: CEO inflation expectations decreased in 2026:Q3clevelandfed.org
  10. 10Short-Term Inflation Expectations Tick Down; Household Finance Expectations Improve - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORKnewyorkfed.org
  11. 11CPI core in September Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  12. 12Inflation Nowcastingclevelandfed.org

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above 0.2%

📉 August 22, 2026: 75.0pp drop

Price decreased from 91.0% to 16.0%

What happened: The provided web research does not substantiate a 75.0 percentage point drop in the "CPI in September: Above 0.2%" prediction market on August 22, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. As of August 23, 2026, the September 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) had not been released, with its publication scheduled for October 14, 2026 [8][9]. Furthermore, no credible social media activity or traditional news reports correlating to such a specific and significant price movement for the September CPI market were found in the provided sources [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. Therefore, the primary driver cannot be identified.

📈 August 20, 2026: 77.0pp spike

Price increased from 14.0% to 91.0%

What happened: The provided research does not support the existence of a "77.0 percentage point spike" in the prediction market for "CPI in September: Above 0.2%" on August 20, 2026 [10]. September 2026 CPI data would not have been released by this date, as the August 2026 CPI report is scheduled for September 11, 2026 [2]. No social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors are evidenced as causes for such a movement on that date related to September CPI [10]. Given the lack of evidence for the event itself, social media is irrelevant to the described market movement.

📉 August 16, 2026: 59.0pp drop

Price decreased from 69.0% to 10.0%

What happened: The provided research does not identify a clear primary driver for the reported 59.0 percentage point drop in the "CPI in September: Above 0.2%" prediction market on August 16, 2026. Social media activity around August 16–17, 2026, primarily focused on legal trials and political rhetoric, showing no connection to September CPI expectations that would precipitate such a market movement [11][12][13]. Furthermore, official data for July 2026 CPI increased only 0.1% month-over-month, and there is no evidence of a 59.0 percentage point drop in inflation reported around this time [14][15]. Consequently, social media activity was irrelevant to this purported market movement.

Outcome: Above 0.5%

📉 August 19, 2026: 48.0pp drop

Price decreased from 98.0% to 50.0%

What happened: The provided research indicates no evidence of a 48.0 percentage point drop in the "CPI in September: Above 0.5%" prediction market occurring on August 19, 2026 [16]. The September 2026 CPI data is scheduled for release on October 14, 2026, meaning August 19, 2026, would be well in advance of the official data release [8][9]. The most recent CPI data available by August 19, 2026, was for July 2026, released August 12, 2026, which showed a 0.1% month-over-month increase and did not cause a 48pp shift on August 19 [17][18][19][20]. Therefore, without evidence of the specified price movement, its primary driver, including any social media activity, cannot be determined. Social media activity was likely irrelevant given the unsubstantiated nature of the reported price movement.

Outcome: Above 0.0%

📈 August 18, 2026: 44.0pp spike

Price increased from 54.0% to 98.0%

What happened: The reported "44.0 percentage point spike" in the "CPI in September: Above 0.0%" prediction market on August 18, 2026, appears to be based on a factual misunderstanding. Official data indicates no such national CPI spike, with the July 2026 CPI increasing only 0.1% monthly, and September 2026 CPI data not yet released on that date [21][22][23][24][25]. The "44.0 percent" figure likely refers to a regional gasoline price increase in St. Louis from April 2026, or a drop in September rate hike probabilities, which social media discussions may have misattributed to a national CPI spike [26][27][28]. Therefore, social media was mostly noise or irrelevant to an actual national CPI prediction market spike, as the underlying premise is unconfirmed by available data.
Sources (28)
  1. 1Will Diesel Price on August 13, 2026 be above $5.385?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  2. 2seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  3. 3seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  4. 4seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  5. 5seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  6. 6seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  7. 7seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  8. 8CPI month-over-month in September? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  9. 9October 14, 2026: CPI in September Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  10. 10News — top prediction-market movers | pdatapdata.world
  11. 11https://www.tipranks.com/news/catalyst/how-trumps-refund-bump-narrative-could-lift-consumer-discretionary-stockstipranks.com
  12. 12Snap Drops 3% After Ninth Circuit Strips Away Its Immunity Shield, Reddit Eases - 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
  13. 13Meta Platforms Inc Stock (META) Moved Down by 3.63% on Aug 17: Facts Behind the Movementtradingkey.com
  14. 14Producer Price Index News Release - 2026 M07 Resultsbls.gov
  15. 15Consumer Price Index News Release - 2026 M07 Resultsbls.gov
  16. 16News — top prediction-market moversgoto
  17. 17Cooler CPI lifts chipmakers as Brent extends its runhome.saxo
  18. 18CPI Hits Expectations: What It Means for Traders Right Now – August 12, 2026 - Find Better Tradesblog.findbettertrades.com
  19. 19When Good News Looks Like Bad Newsmadworldmacro.medium.com
  20. 20Consumer Price Index News Release - 2026 M07 Resultsbls.gov
  21. 21Consumer prices up 3.4 over the year in July 2026: The Economics Daily: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov
  22. 22Consumer Price Index - July 2026bls.gov
  23. 23Consumer Price Index Summary - 2026 M07 Resultsarchive.ph
  24. 24Consumer Prices Rise 0.1% in July, Annual Inflation Steady at 3.4% as Expected - Annual Earnings Summaryapps.cxc.org
  25. 25Consumer Price Index Summary - 2026 M06 Resultsbls.gov
  26. 26Fed Hike Odds Collapse, Long Yields Hit 2001 Highs: The Redrawresearch.financialoracle.com
  27. 27Consumer Price Index, St. Louis area – April 2026: Mountain–Plains Information Office: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov
  28. 28Consumer Price Index, St. Louis area – April 2026: Mountain–Plains Information Office: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For this Kalshi prediction market on "CPI in September," a YES resolution occurs if the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) is above 0.4%. A NO resolution occurs if the September CPI is 0.4% or lower. The market begins in 51 days and is scheduled to settle by October 14, 6:30am EDT. No special settlement conditions are explicitly detailed in the provided content.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above -0.2% $0.98 $0.27 99%
Above -0.3% $0.99 $0.28 98%
Above 0.1% $0.98 $0.39 97%
Above -0.1% $0.98 $0.25 75%
Above -0.4% $0.98 $0.29 72%
Above 0.0% $1.00 $0.49 52%
Above 0.4% $0.42 $0.63 20%
Above 0.5% $0.98 $1.00 20%
Above 0.6% $0.94 $0.97 20%
Above 0.3% $0.82 $0.77 19%
Above 0.2% $0.85 $0.71 16%

Market Discussion

Prediction markets as of August 23, 2026, reflect expectations for a positive month-over-month increase in September 2026 CPI, generally between 0.1% and 0.3% [1][2][3][4][5][6]. While specific September CPI forecasts and direct social media discussions are noted as absent from recent evidence, the Cleveland Fed's nowcasting model estimated August 2026 CPI at 0.35% monthly as of August 21, 2026, and consumer inflation expectations remained a key focus for policymakers in August 2026 [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. Federal Reserve leadership has characterized inflation as "unquestionably too high" recently and projects a gradual decline to approximately 3.25% by the end of 2026 [19][20].

Sources (20)
  1. 1CPI month-over-month in September? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  2. 2CPI in September | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
  3. 3October 14, 2026: CPI in September Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  4. 4CPI in September — Kalshi Odds & Insights | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  5. 5CPI core in September Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  6. 6Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Kalshi Prediction Market Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  7. 7Surveys of Consumerssca.isr.umich.edu
  8. 8Short-Term Inflation Expectations Tick Down; Household Finance Expectations Improve - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORKnewyorkfed.org
  9. 9US Consumer Confidenceconference-board.org
  10. 10Survey of Consumer Expectationsnewyorkfed.org
  11. 11US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment September 2026: Date, Time & What to Expect | Finance Calendarfinancecalendar.com
  12. 12Inflation Nowcastingclevelandfed.org
  13. 13seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  14. 14seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  15. 15seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  16. 16seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  17. 17seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  18. 18seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  19. 19The U.S. Economy: National Economic Outlooknewyorkfed.org
  20. 20Key Takeaways from President Williams's Speech on the...tellerwindow.newyorkfed.org

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 30 High Risk

Scheduled statistical release: the agency holds the number before publication

Risk flag· Information exposure

Trust score capped by a severe activity flag.

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score66Caution
Trade quality20% of score89Strong
Weighted blend71overridden
Safety capSevere trading anomaly30High Risk

A severe trading anomaly caps the score at 30, whatever the blend.

Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
75Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Large tradesTrade signals · high confidence

Largest single print on KXCPI-26SEP-T0.5 carried 88% of its $16,203 tape (window is 96% of 24h flow)

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesPrice moves carried real volume. Clear
Size patternsTrade sizes look organic. Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Scheduled statistical release: the agency holds the number before publication

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
88Deep

Size fills near the screen price

14 contracts · worst first

Above 0.7%4
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 0.9%30
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above -0.3%41
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 0.8%51
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 0.0%54
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above -0.2%58
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 0.6%80
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 0.3%81
Deep · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above -0.4%85
Deep · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 0.2%90
Deep · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 0.4%94
Deep · high confidence

Quoted spread 1.1% of price with size at both touches (bar range 1.1%)

24h traded notional $9,126 · 24h
Above 0.5%95
Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 3.3% of price over 13 traded bars

Above -0.1%—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 0.1%—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
92Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

14 contracts · worst first

Above 0.7%59
Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

Above 0.2%60
Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

Above 0.3%63
Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 24h

Above 0.8%90
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Above 0.5%96
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Above -0.4%—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Above -0.3%—
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Above -0.2%—
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Above -0.1%—
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Above 0.0%—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Above 0.1%—
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Above 0.4%—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Above 0.6%—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Above 0.9%—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

14 contracts · worst first

Above -0.4%95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above -0.3%95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above -0.2%95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above -0.1%95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 0.0%95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 0.1%95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 0.2%95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 0.3%95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 0.4%95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 0.5%95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 0.6%95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 0.7%95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 0.8%95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 0.9%95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
89Strong

Order book supports trading

Deep and tight enough to trade efficiently.

Outcome quality 89 (notional-weighted across 12 scored legs)

Above -0.4%85Market scoreLiquidity85Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 85
Liquidity
85 · Deep · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above -0.3%41Market scoreLiquidity41Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 41
Liquidity
41 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above -0.2%58Market scoreLiquidity58Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 58
Liquidity
58 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above -0.1%–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 0.0%54Market scoreLiquidity54Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 54
Liquidity
54 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 0.1%–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 0.2%90Market scoreLiquidity90Move quality60Rule clarity95
Why 90
Liquidity
90 · Deep · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
60 · Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 0.3%81Market scoreLiquidity81Move quality63Rule clarity95
Why 81
Liquidity
81 · Deep · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
63 · Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 24h

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 0.4%94Market scoreLiquidity94Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 94
Liquidity
94 · Deep · high confidence

Quoted spread 1.1% of price with size at both touches (bar range 1.1%)

24h traded notional $9,126 · 24h
Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 0.5%95Market scoreLiquidity95Move quality96Rule clarity95
Why 95
Liquidity
95 · Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 3.3% of price over 13 traded bars

Move quality
96 · Confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 0.6%80Market scoreLiquidity80Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 80
Liquidity
80 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 0.7%4Market scoreLiquidity4Move quality59Rule clarity95
Why 4
Liquidity
4 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
59 · Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 0.8%51Market scoreLiquidity51Move quality90Rule clarity95
Why 51
Liquidity
51 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
90 · Confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Above 0.9%30Market scoreLiquidity30Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 30
Liquidity
30 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 1, 2026

6. Which economic data releases between the August and September CPI reports will most influence the September 2026 inflation figure?

August 2026 CPI Report ReleaseSeptember 11, 2026 [1][2][3]
Most Influential DataLabor-market and wage data, then Producer Price Index (PPI) [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]
August 2026 PPI Report ReleaseSeptember 10, 2026 [10][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]
Labor market, wages, and producer prices most influence September 2026 inflation. The September 2026 inflation figure is primarily derived from the August 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is slated to release on September 11, 2026 [1][2][3]. Economic data releases between August 23, 2026, and this CPI report that are most likely to influence the inflation figure include labor-market and wage data, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. Highly influential labor-market and wage data consist of the August 2026 Employment Situation report, due September 4, 2026, and the July 2026 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), scheduled for September 1, 2026 [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. These releases, covering Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, and the unemployment rate, provide a broad macroeconomic signal for services inflation, given that wage growth affects labor-intensive categories and Federal Reserve policy expectations [4][5][6][7][8][9]. Furthermore, the August 2026 Producer Price Index (PPI) report, to be released on September 10, 2026, is a key upstream input for goods and some services prices, capable of directly altering expectations for the upcoming CPI [10][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9].
Housing and consumer demand indicators also significantly shape the CPI outlook. Other important releases influencing the September 2026 CPI figure encompass housing-related indicators and consumer demand releases [4][5][6][7][8][9]. Housing constitutes the most significant CPI component by weight, making measures such as rent, owners’ equivalent rent proxies, building permits, housing starts, and new home sales highly relevant [4][5][6][7][8][9]. Consumer demand releases, including Retail Sales, consumer credit/spending indicators, and consumer sentiment, primarily impact the CPI through demand-side pressure on goods and discretionary services [4][5][6][7][8][9]. These indicators are also utilized by inflation forecasting models, such as those from the Cleveland Fed and the New York Fed, to project headline and core inflation trends [11][12][13].
Sources (13)
  1. 1US CPI Report September 2026: Date, Time & What to Expect | Finance Calendarfinancecalendar.com
  2. 2Schedule of Selected Releases 2026bls.gov
  3. 3Economic Indicators Calendar | New York Fednewyorkfed.org
  4. 4seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  5. 5seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  6. 6seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  7. 7seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  8. 8seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  9. 9seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  10. 10US Producer Price Index September 2026: Date, Time & What to Expect | Finance Calendarfinancecalendar.com
  11. 11Inflation Expectationsclevelandfed.org
  12. 12The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2026libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org
  13. 13The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2026libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org

7. What are the core arguments from economists for 'sticky' vs. moderating inflation scenarios for Q3 2026?

Q2 2026 Phila Fed Headline CPI Forecast3.50% Q4/Q4 basis (Q2 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters [1])
Q2 2026 Phila Fed Core CPI Forecast2.90% Q4/Q4 basis (Q2 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters [1])
August 2026 Headline CPI Monthly Change Nowcast0.35% (Cleveland Fed, as of August 21, 2026 [2])
Economists hold differing views on inflation's trajectory by Q3 2026. The debate primarily centers on the behavior of core and services components, including shelter and labor-sensitive categories [1]. Arguments for "sticky" inflation emphasize persistent service sector costs, such as shelter, and geopolitical tensions like the US-Iran conflict, which could contribute to stagflationary risks and energy price volatility [3]. Forecasters have notably revised up their inflation outlooks, with the Philadelphia Fed’s Q2 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters expecting Q4/Q4 headline CPI at 3.50% and core CPI at 2.90%, both exceeding prior estimates [1]. Upward pressure from tariffs and their pass-through effects, as highlighted in the Fed’s July 2026 Monetary Policy Report, also supports the view that inflation will remain meaningfully above target [1].
Conversely, arguments for moderating inflation cite several influential factors. These include cooling goods prices as tariff impacts diminish, potential productivity gains from AI investments easing wage pressures, and a labor market showing signs of slower hiring and wage growth [3]. Firms anticipate a slowdown in cost growth and price increases in 2026, with year-ahead expectations returning to 2024 levels [4]. Recent monthly CPI readings, such as July's 0.10% month-over-month increase, annual CPI at 3.40%, and core CPI at 2.50%, are interpreted as consistent with continued disinflation rather than re-acceleration [1]. The Cleveland Fed's nowcasting for August 2026, suggesting a headline CPI monthly change of 0.35% [2], further supports a moderating trend without indicating a sharp acceleration that would necessitate immediate Federal Reserve tightening [1].
Sources (4)
  1. 1seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  2. 2Inflation Nowcastingclevelandfed.org
  3. 3US Inflation Outlook for H2 2026alpha-sense.com
  4. 4Firms' Inflation Expectations Return to 2024 Levelslibertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org

8. How do the Cleveland Fed's Nowcast and the NY Fed's consumer survey compare in their inflation outlooks for Q3 2026?

Cleveland Fed Q3 2026 CPI Nowcast1.22% (annualized rate) (as of August 21, 2026) [1]
Cleveland Fed Q3 2026 Core CPI Nowcast1.91% (annualized percent change) (as of August 21, 2026) [1]
NY Fed July 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations (one-year-ahead)3.6% (July 2026) [2][3]
Direct comparison between the two inflation outlooks is challenging due to methodological differences. The Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting provides specific, short-term, data-driven projections for quarterly CPI [1]. As of August 21, 2026, its nowcast for Q3 2026 projects CPI inflation at an annualized rate of 1.22% and Core CPI at 1.91% [1]. These figures represent annualized percent changes for the quarter.
The New York Fed's survey provides longer-term household inflation expectations, which are not directly comparable to the Cleveland Fed's Q3 2026 nowcast [1][2][3][4][5]. The New York Fed's July 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) reported that median one-year-ahead inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.6% [2][3]. Expectations for three-year and five-year horizons remained unchanged, holding at 3.3% and 3.0%, respectively [3][4][5]. The SCE measures subjective household inflation expectations over these longer time frames [4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Inflation Nowcastingclevelandfed.org
  2. 2Short-Term Inflation Expectations Tick Down; Household...newyorkfed.org
  3. 3Survey of Consumer Expectationsnewyorkfed.org
  4. 4Short- and Medium-Term Inflation Expectations Increase,...newyorkfed.org
  5. 5Center for Microeconomic Data | Inflation Expectationsnewyorkfed.org

9. When does the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) collect the data for the September CPI, and what is its revision history?

CPI Data Collection PeriodSeptember 1–30, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6]
September 2026 CPI ReleaseOctober 14, 2026, at 8:30 A.M. ET [7][8]
Seasonally Adjusted CPI Revision PeriodUp to 5 years [9][10][11][12]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics collects September CPI data throughout the month. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) gathers data for the September 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) continuously from September 1–30, 2026, across three pricing periods to estimate the overall price level [1][2][3][4][5][6][13][14][15][16]. The BLS plans to release the September 2026 CPI on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 A.M. ET [7][8].
CPI revision policies vary for different index types. Standard CPI-U and CPI-W indexes are considered final upon their initial publication [9][10][11][12]. However, seasonally adjusted CPI indexes can be revised for up to 5 years [9][10][11][12]. The monthly headline CPI data generally does not undergo a standard revision process like some other economic indicators [14][9][10][11][17][18]. Conversely, specific sub-indexes, such as the Chained CPI-U (C-CPI-U), are initially released as preliminary and are subject to three quarterly revisions over a 10–12 month period [14][9][10][11][17][18].
Specific revision history for September 2026 CPI is not provided. The research does not include the BLS’s specific revision history for the September 2026 CPI, meaning it does not detail if or when this particular index would be revised after its initial publication [1][2][3][4][5][6]. To determine this revision history, explicit BLS documentation listing revisions for the September 2026 CPI would be necessary [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Sources (18)
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  8. 8Economic Release Calendar - Consumer Price Index | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
  9. 9CPI News Release Technical Notebls.gov
  10. 10Consumer Price Index Summary - 2026 M07 Resultsbls.gov
  11. 11Consumer Price Index - July 2026bls.gov
  12. 12BLS Handbook of Methods, Appendix A. Seasonal Adjustment Methodology at BLS: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov
  13. 13Consumer Price Index: Conceptsbls.gov
  14. 14Consumer Price Index Frequently Asked Questionsbls.gov
  15. 15Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic and Response on the Consumer Price Index: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov
  16. 16Concepts: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov
  17. 17Chronology of changes in the Consumer Price Indexbls.gov
  18. 18Consumer Price Index: Historybls.gov

10. Based on Q3 2026 trends, what impact will volatile energy and shelter components have on the September CPI print?

Energy CPI Weight7% of CPI [1][2]
Shelter CPI Weight33% of CPI [1][2]
Shelter Contribution (July)Two-thirds of all-items increase in July [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]
Based on Q3 2026 trends, September CPI will likely see modest shelter-led inflation. Volatile energy components are projected to exert a mild drag or near-flat influence on the September 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, while shelter is anticipated to remain a modest but persistent positive contributor [5][6][7][8][9][10]. This suggests the September headline outcome will remain sensitive to fuel-price swings, but core inflation dynamics should still be predominantly shaped by shelter stickiness [5][6][7][8][9][10]. Prediction markets for September 2026 CPI currently indicate a lean toward a positive monthly increase, with probabilities favoring outcomes exceeding 0.1% and 0.2% monthly growth [11][12][13][14][15].
Energy’s volatility remains key despite recent mild September impact. Accounting for approximately 7% of the CPI weight, energy is a significant source of volatility and forecast error [1][2]. The energy index experienced considerable fluctuations, declining 1.5% in July 2026 after a 5.7% decline in June, primarily driven by gasoline [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Despite these recent monthly declines, energy prices remained elevated year-over-year, increasing 14.7% over the 12 months ending in July 2026 [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Energy prices, particularly gasoline, are highly sensitive to Middle East geopolitical tensions, meaning risks of a reversal and secondary inflationary impacts persist for the September print [16][17]. Consequently, any rebound in gasoline prices could swiftly negate the near-term drag on headline CPI [5][6][7][8][9][10].
Shelter will continue to drive core inflation due to its persistent growth. Representing roughly 33% of the CPI weight, shelter remains the most significant source of volatility and headline CPI forecast error [1][2]. The shelter index demonstrated persistent but moderate monthly growth, increasing 0.1% in both June and July 2026 [3][4]. It contributed approximately two-thirds of the all-items monthly increase in July [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Within the shelter category, owners' equivalent rent (OER) increased by 0.30% and rent by 0.30% in July [5][6][7][8][9][10]. Owners' equivalent rent continues to be relatively sticky, complicating the overall disinflation trajectory [18][1][19]. This small but positive monthly pace suggests shelter will likely continue to add upward pressure to both headline and core CPI through September, unless there is a clear step-down in the monthly rates for OER and rent [5][6][7][8][9][10].
Sources (19)
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  11. 11October 14, 2026: CPI in September Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  12. 12CPI month-over-month in September? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  13. 13CPI in September | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
  14. 14CPI in September — Kalshi Odds & Insights | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
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  16. 16US CPI Report September 2026: Date, Time & What to Expect | Finance Calendarfinancecalendar.com
  17. 17July CPI Eases, But Energy Risks Lingerconference-board.org
  18. 18September CPI Preview: Sticky-Looking Core to Be Temporaryexternalcontent.blob.core.windows.net
  19. 19Fed likely to stay on hold through year-end | State Streetssga.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the Consumer Price Index for August 2026 on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time [1][2][3]. The CPI for September 2026 is scheduled for release on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time [1][2][4]. Economic forecasts for 2026 indicate persistent inflation concerns, with predictions for higher-than-target headline and core CPI levels compared to previous years; the Federal Reserve is shifting focus toward price stability with potential rate tightening [5][6][7]. Economic sentiment in August 2026 showed U.S. business leaders decreased their 12-month inflation expectations to 3.3% in the third quarter of 2026, while consumer inflation expectations at the one-year-ahead horizon declined slightly to 3.6% in July 2026 [8][9]. The New York Fed's DSGE model, in its June 2026 forecast, projected core PCE inflation at 3.1% for 2026, identifying mark-up shocks as key factors [10].
Key market catalysts in September 2026 also include the FOMC meeting and rate decision, non-farm payrolls on September 4, and general volatility surrounding global geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices [11][12]. The Treasury has doubled its long-end buyback cap from $2B to at least $4B per operation, which could weaken the dollar and support gold and U.S. equities [10][1][13][14][15][16][17][18]. This intervention is also framed as potentially reigniting tensions with the Fed and affecting yield dynamics, with discussions around rising term premium and higher coupons as debt supply increases [7][10][13][14][15][16][17][18]. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote on Friday the 28th also presents a general macro catalyst [10][13][14][15][16][17][18].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: January 13, 2027
  • Closes: October 14, 2026
Sources (18)
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  3. 3Schedule of Selected Releases for September 2026blsmon1.bls.gov
  4. 4Schedule of Selected Releases for October 2026bls.gov
  5. 5Second Quarter 2026 Survey of Professional Forecastersphiladelphiafed.org
  6. 6Outlook 3Q 2026nylim.com
  7. 7Speech by Governor Cook on the economic outlookfederalreserve.gov
  8. 8Cleveland Fed survey: CEO inflation expectations decreased in 2026:Q3clevelandfed.org
  9. 9Short-Term Inflation Expectations Tick Down; Household Finance Expectations Improve - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORKnewyorkfed.org
  10. 10The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2026 - Liberty Street Economicslibertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org
  11. 11Nordea Economic Outlook September 2026: Navigating a world in flux | Nordeanordea.com
  12. 12Economic Calendar 2026 - Key Market Events | Market Informativemarketinformative.com
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  17. 17seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  18. 18seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 19 markets in this series

Outcomes: 5 resolved YES, 14 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXCPI-26JUL-T-0.4: YES (Aug 12, 2026)
  • KXCPI-26JUL-T-0.3: YES (Aug 12, 2026)
  • KXCPI-26JUL-T-0.2: YES (Aug 12, 2026)
  • KXCPI-26JUN-T-0.3: NO (Jul 14, 2026)
  • KXCPI-26JUN-T-0.2: NO (Jul 14, 2026)