Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY)
Short Answer
November 2026 CPI year-over-year inflation is likely to remain above 3.4%, driven by the Federal Reserve's median 2026 PCE inflation projection of 3.7%, a prospect the market prices at 98.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
Prediction markets for November 2026 CPI have repriced lower, driven by a consensus forming around a low-to-mid 3% inflation rate. The key data point anchoring this view appears to be Kalshi market aggregation from September 17-18, which priced the "Exactly 3.2%" outcome at a 57% probability. This expectation of contained inflation drove selling pressure in contracts for higher CPI prints.
The market's overall downward trajectory is consistent with this developing consensus. A significant drop from 77% to 50% on September 14 preceded the aggregated data release, suggesting sentiment was already shifting. The move to a 9.0% probability on September 28, which occurred on a substantial volume of over 10,000 contracts, shows high conviction behind the view that higher inflation scenarios are unlikely. While other price spikes were noted in the period, they likely occurred in contracts with lower inflation thresholds (e.g., "Above 2.5%") and do not change the primary narrative of cooling long-term inflation expectations.
- CPI above 3.5% likely, driven by the Federal Reserve's 3.7% PCE projection.
- Higher CPI outcomes above 3.7% may be underestimated by current market pricing.
- Shelter and energy forecasts suggest moderating CPI pressures, presenting conflicting signals.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.9% | 15.0% | 11.8% | Federal Reserve's 2026 PCE inflation projection suggests higher CPI due to PCE generally running lower. |
| Above 4.1% | 4.0% | 1.8% | Federal Reserve's 2026 PCE projection suggests persistent inflation, as CPI typically runs higher than PCE. |
| Above 4.3% | 4.0% | 0.5% | Federal Reserve's 2026 PCE projection suggests persistent inflation, as CPI typically runs higher than PCE. |
| Above 4.2% | 3.0% | 0.6% | Federal Reserve's 2026 PCE projection suggests persistent inflation, as CPI typically runs higher than PCE. |
| Above 4.6% | 4.0% | 0.5% | Federal Reserve's 2026 PCE projection suggests persistent inflation, as CPI typically runs higher than PCE. |
Current Context
Prediction markets show varied expectations for November 2026 CPI. As of September 28, 2026, the U.S. headline CPI YoY for November 2026 is centered in the low-to-mid 3% range, but source data differs [1][2][3][4]. Kalshi aggregation on September 17–18 showed "Exactly 3.2%" at 57% [2]. Robinhood displayed 59¢ for "Above 3.6%", 55¢ for "Above 3.7%", and 35¢ for "Above 3.8%" [1]. RateSpike cited a 2.7% Wall Street consensus, though its Kalshi market was not yet open [3]. The relevant event will resolve against the BLS CPI-U twelve-month percent change for November 2026 [1][2][3][4]. The BLS officially schedules publication for December 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET [5]. Other sources generally align with this date, though RateSpike lists December 11 [1][2][4][6][5][7][8][3].
Near-term inflation is uncertain; expert views favor a wide risk distribution. TD Securities projected September headline CPI at +0.54% m/m, citing nearly 8% gasoline inflation and firmer food prices, with core CPI at +0.20% m/m [9]. Goldman Sachs commentary suggested its forecast path was above market pricing for September and October but below it for November and December, implying potential late-year disinflation following an interim energy-driven scare [10]. The Federal Reserve's September 15–16, 2026, projections placed median 2026 PCE inflation at 3.7% and core PCE inflation at 3.4%, with 2027 medians at 2.3% and 2.5%, respectively [11][12][13]. These are PCE measures, not direct CPI forecasts [11][12][13]. Expert and market context favor a wide November CPI risk distribution, rather than a precise point estimate [14][11][12][13]. Principal swing factors identified include energy prices, gasoline pass-through, food, shelter, services, import costs, and seasonal adjustment [14][11][12][13]. Fed projections still indicate inflation above target in 2026, while forward commentary anticipates subsequent easing [11][12][13].
No single point prediction for November 2026 CPI is available in retrieved expert-curated sources. The Cleveland Fed publishes daily nowcasts for CPI (e.g., September 2026: 3.43% YoY; 0.37% MoM), but its September 14, 2026, page does not provide a November 2026 CPI YoY forecast [15][16]. This model serves as a predictive input, not an official statistic, using various incoming data [16][17][18]. CME FedWatch infers interest-rate probabilities from futures and is not a direct prediction market for November 2026 CPI YoY [19][20]. The New York Fed's September 2026 Survey of Market Expectations queries CPI distributions over longer horizons but does not state a specific November 2026 CPI YoY consensus [21]. As of September 28, 2026, no source-grounded point prediction for November 2026 headline CPI YoY is available in the retrieved expert-curated sources [5][7][15][19]. A precise number would be speculative [5][7][15][19]. The defensible approach is to track via the Cleveland Fed nowcast as data becomes available, while using FedWatch to inform the policy-reaction backdrop [5][7][15][19]. Key CPI release dates include September 2026 CPI on October 14, October 2026 CPI on November 10, and November 2026 CPI on December 10 [5][7][8][22]. The October reading will be the last official CPI release before the November reference-month result [5][7][8][22].
Sources (22)
- 1December 10, 2026: Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY) Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 2CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 3CPI Inflation — November 2026 — Prediction Market Odds | RateSpikeratespike.com
- 4CPI Year-Over-Year November 2026 3.5% Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
- 5Schedule of Selected Releases for November 2026bls.gov
- 6Will November 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? | Manifoldmanifold.markets
- 7Schedule of Selected Releases 2026bls.gov
- 8Schedule of Releases for the Consumer Price Indexbls.gov
- 9United States: September inflation profile – TD Securities — Elev8en.elev8trading.now
- 10Goldman Sachs Sees Inflation’s Last Two Tricks Before Year- Endthedarksideoftheboom.substack.com
- 11The Fed - September 16, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible versionfederalreserve.gov
- 12Will Core CPI YoY Hit 2.4% in September 2026? Prediction Market Odds | Lines.comlines.com
- 13Will September US Monthly Inflation Hit 0.5%? Prediction Market Odds | Lines.comlines.com
- 14December CPI Preview: Payback Pendingexternalcontent.blob.core.windows.net
- 15Inflation Nowcastingclevelandfed.org
- 16A User’s Guide to the Inflation Nowcasting Website Inflation measures Each day, the model produces nowcasts for four common inflation measures: • PCE. Inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, more commonly referred to as PCE inflation. • Core PCE. Inflation in the PCE price index excluding food and energy, also known as core PCE inflation. • CPI. Inflation in the consumer price index (CPI). • Core CPI. Inflation in the CPI excluding food and energy, also known as core CPI inflation. Inflation rates For each measure, the model reports inflation rates in terms of: • Monthly inflation: the month-over-month rate of inflation, seasonally adjusted, expressed as nonannualized percent changes; these monthly inflation rates are also used to compute the year-over-year rate of inflation in percentage terms through a given month. • Quarterly inflation: the quarter-to-quarter rate of inflation, expressed in percentage terms at seasonally adjusted annualized rates (SAAR). Inflation nowcasts Our model produces forecasts of current inflation, commonly called “nowcasts,” before the data are officially released, by nowcasting the immediate past, present, and future. The nowcasts always fill in “the next data point”—or, in some cases, the next two data points, if we judge that there is enough information available for the nowcasting model to use. For example, during the month of January, we make inflation nowcasts of December’s monthly inflation rates—until they are officially released— and January’s monthly inflation rates. In January we also make nowcasts of the previous year’s fourth-quarter inflation rates until they are officially released, in addition to the current year’s first quarter inflation rates. But once we get to February, we know the fourth-quarter’s official inflation rates, so we only need to nowcast the first-quarter’s inflation rates. (At that point, we are also nowcasting January’s monthly inflation rates until they are officially releasclevelandfed.org
- 17. We recursively forecast monthly core CPI inflation using J-month moving averages, so the forecast for month t isclevelandfed.org
- 18Nowcasting Inflationclevelandfed.org
- 19FedWatch - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 20FedWatch API - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 21SURVEY OF MARKET EXPECTATIONS SEPTEMBER 2026newyorkfed.org
- 22Schedule of Selected Releases for December 2026blsmon1.bls.gov
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 4.4%
📉 September 28, 2026: 84.0pp drop
Price decreased from 88.0% to 4.0%
What happened: The provided research does not support the occurrence of an 84.0 percentage point drop for the "Above 4.4%" outcome on September 28, 2026 [1]. On that date, prediction markets already priced lower CPI thresholds significantly below 100% (e.g., "above 3.8%" at 35¢), and thresholds above 4.5% were priced around 4¢, indicating a very low initial probability for November 2026 CPI YoY being above 4.4% [2][3][4]. No social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors were found that would have caused such a drastic decline from a high probability on September 28, 2026, especially as recent CPI data and nowcasts (e.g., August 2026 at 3.4% YoY, September 2026 nowcast at 3.43% YoY) were well below 4.4% [5][6]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver.
Outcome: Above 4.6%
📉 September 27, 2026: 74.0pp drop
Price decreased from 97.0% to 23.0%
What happened: The reported 74.0 percentage point drop in the "Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY) Above 4.6%" prediction market on September 27, 2026, could not be corroborated by available expert-curated sources [5][7][8]. Market data already showed that a November 2026 CPI YoY above 4.6% was considered an extreme-tail outcome, with Wall Street consensus around 2.7% and official projections for 2026 PCE inflation below this threshold [9][10][8]. As the asserted price movement is unverified, it is not possible to identify a primary driver from social media, news, or market structure factors. Therefore, social media activity is irrelevant in explaining this unverified market movement.
📈 September 26, 2026: 90.0pp spike
Price increased from 7.0% to 97.0%
What happened: The premise of a 90.0 percentage point spike for the outcome "Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY) Above 4.6%" on September 26, 2026, lacks direct evidentiary support in the provided research. While a University of Michigan-style consumer survey released on September 26, 2026, did report a rise in one-year inflation expectations to 4.6%, there is no evidence establishing a 90.0 percentage point probability spike for the November 2026 CPI YoY market exceeding 4.6% [11][12][13]. Furthermore, the research explicitly states that no specific social media post or viral narrative was identified as causing such a movement [13]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant, as no evidence was found to support the claimed market movement or its link to social media activity.
Outcome: Above 4.0%
📉 September 25, 2026: 13.0pp drop
Price decreased from 38.0% to 25.0%
What happened: The provided research does not substantiate a 13.0 percentage point drop for the "Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY) - Above 4.0%" prediction market on September 25, 2026 [14], [15], [16]. The search results explicitly state that the phrase "drop 13.0pp" refers to an unrelated IPO market, and no evidence supports this specific movement for the U.S. CPI market [14]. Furthermore, references to "above 4.0%" inflation on September 25, 2026, concern Poland's headline CPI, not the U.S. November CPI [17], [18]. Therefore, identifying a primary driver, including social media activity, for a non-existent market movement is not possible.
Outcome: Above 3.7%
📉 September 23, 2026: 20.0pp drop
Price decreased from 66.0% to 46.0%
What happened: Although the provided research does not explicitly substantiate a 20.0 percentage point drop for the "Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY) - Above 3.7%" contract on September 23, 2026 [14], the most significant potential driver for such a movement was traditional news. On that date, Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr announced that "further rate increases may be needed" to return inflation to 2% [19]. This hawkish statement indicated a stronger commitment to curbing inflation, thereby likely decreasing market expectations for November 2026 CPI to exceed 3.7%. Social media activity was not identified as a factor in the provided sources and appears irrelevant.
Sources (19)
- 111-Year Expected Inflation | ALFRED | St. Louis Fedalfred.stlouisfed.org
- 2Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY) Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 3Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year… — 87% · Kalshi | SimpleFunctionssimplefunctions.dev
- 4Prediction Market Screener — Liquidity, Volume, IY & CRI Filters | SimpleFunctionssimplefunctions.dev
- 5Inflation Nowcastingclevelandfed.org
- 6CPI Home: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsdata.bls.gov
- 7Schedule of Releases for the Consumer Price Indexbls.gov
- 8Summary of Economic Projections, September 16, 2026newyorkfed.org
- 9CPI Inflation — November 2026 — Prediction Market Odds | RateSpikeratespike.com
- 10CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? | Paritypredictparity.com
- 11U.S. Inflation Expectations Jump to 4.6% as Fed’s Hammack Warns on Mindset - WalletInvestor.comwalletinvestor.com
- 12US Consumer Sentiment Falls to Four-Month Low in September as Inflation Concerns Risegoldpricetoday.co.in
- 13Hot Growth, Softer Confidence Push Yields Higher | TickerSparktickerspark.ai
- 14Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY) — Kalshi voorspellingsmarkt-noteringen | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 15Schedule of Selected Releases for November 2026bls.gov
- 16Schedule of Selected Releases 2026bls.gov
- 17CEE & CCA week ahead: Inflation data from Poland and Czech GDP | articles | ING THINKthink.ing.com
- 18CEE & CCA week ahead: Inflation data from Poland and Czech GDP | FX Bank Forecastfxbankforecast.com
- 19Fed's Barr: Further rate hikes needed for timely return to 2% inflationfxstreet.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi prediction market determines if the Year-over-Year (YoY) Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2026 will be above a specific percentage. A "Yes" contract resolves as true if the November 2026 CPI YoY is above the percentage threshold (e.g., 3.7% for the "Above 3.7%" market). A "No" contract resolves as true if the November 2026 CPI YoY is at or below the specified threshold. The market is scheduled to settle on December 10, 2026, at 8:00 am EST.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.4% | $0.98 | $0.16 | 98% |
| Above 3.0% | $0.98 | $0.03 | 97% |
| Above 3.3% | $0.99 | $0.03 | 96% |
| Above 3.2% | $0.97 | $0.04 | 93% |
| Above 3.1% | $0.97 | $0.04 | 92% |
| Above 3.5% | $0.91 | $0.29 | 90% |
| Above 3.6% | $0.77 | $0.33 | 77% |
| Above 3.7% | $0.72 | $0.58 | 44% |
| Above 3.8% | $0.39 | $0.80 | 26% |
| Above 3.9% | $0.44 | $0.94 | 15% |
| Above 4.8% | $0.04 | $0.97 | 7% |
| Above 4.1% | $0.17 | $0.99 | 4% |
| Above 4.3% | $0.14 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Above 4.4% | $0.13 | $0.98 | 4% |
| Above 4.5% | $0.04 | $0.99 | 4% |
| Above 4.6% | $0.03 | $0.99 | 4% |
| Above 4.7% | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Above 4.9% | $0.09 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Above 5.0% | $0.08 | $0.98 | 4% |
| Above 4.2% | $0.10 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Above 4.0% | $0.24 | $0.99 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Prediction markets in mid-September 2026 indicated 3.2% as the leading outcome for November 2026 CPI year-over-year inflation at approximately 57%, with a separate threshold market in late August 2026 implying a 98% probability of the figure exceeding 3.2% [1][2][3][4]. Economic commentary points to energy base effects, tariffs, and shelter inflation as key drivers, with one scenario projecting roughly 3.0% year-over-year [5][6]; this aligns with recent official data showing August 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and a September 2026 nowcast of 3.43%, suggesting continued inflation risk [7][8][9][10].
Sources (10)
- 1CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
- 2CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? — Kalshi Prediction Market Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 3CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? | Paritypredictparity.com
- 4Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY) — Kalshi Prediction Market Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 5US CPI Report November 2026: Date, Time & What to Expect | Finance Calendarfinancecalendar.com
- 6Wells Fargo - November CPI Preview: Detour Around the October Potholewellsfargo.bluematrix.com
- 7Key Economic Data This Week and the Treasury 10-Year Yield Bias Still Higher | Investing.cominvesting.com
- 8Consumer Price Index News Release - 2026 M08 Resultsbls.gov
- 9CPI Home: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsdata.bls.gov
- 10Inflation Nowcastingclevelandfed.org
5. Trust Index
Scheduled statistical release: the agency holds the number before publication
Integrity risk· Information exposure
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score66Caution
Trade quality20% of score51Caution
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score63Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
6. How do the Federal Reserve's PCE projections for 2026 compare with Wall Street's consensus CPI forecasts, and what explains the differences?
| Median 2026 Headline PCE Projection | 3.7% (Federal Reserve, September 2026) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Median 2026 Core PCE Projection | 3.4% (Federal Reserve, September 2026) [1][2][3] |
| Prediction Market Nov 2026 CPI Probability | At least 3.6% (substantial probability, as of September 28, 2026) [4][5][6] |
The Federal Reserve and prediction markets show differing 2026 inflation expectations. The Federal Reserve’s September 16, 2026 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) set the median 2026 headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation projection at 3.7% and core PCE at 3.4%, with the headline forecast having been revised up from 3.6% [1][2][3]. In contrast, prediction market evidence as of September 28, 2026, indicated materially higher expectations for the November 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year release, assigning substantial probability to at least 3.6% and nontrivial probability above 3.8% [4][5][6]. A precise Wall Street consensus for 2026 CPI was not available from the September 2026 New York Fed Survey of Market Expectations [7].
PCE and CPI are distinct metrics, explaining part of the divergence. The observed discrepancy between the Fed's PCE projections and prediction market CPI expectations does not necessarily imply disagreement on inflation, as PCE and CPI are distinct metrics with differing expenditure weights, scopes, and conceptual frameworks [3][8][9][10]. PCE assigns greater weight to categories like medical care and dynamically adjusts weights to reflect consumer substitution, while CPI emphasizes out-of-pocket household purchases and shelter more heavily [3][8][9][10][11][12]. CPI typically registers higher than PCE due to differences in formula (modified Laspeyres versus Fisher-Ideal), weighting sources (household-survey versus business-survey), and PCE's broader coverage and more frequent weight updates that better capture substitution effects [13][11][12][14]. For instance, housing constitutes about 33% of CPI out-of-pocket spending but only around 16% of PCE consumption, causing higher shelter inflation to disproportionately impact CPI [11][12].
Timing, methodology, and specific factors further complicate direct comparisons. The Fed's 3.7% headline PCE figure is a full-year 2026 projection or a Q4-over-Q4 measure, whereas the prediction market targets a specific November 2026 CPI year-over-year observation [1][3][10][15][16][17][18]. Factors such as seasonal base effects, the timing of energy and tariff pass-through, shelter dynamics, and data revisions can lead a single November CPI print to diverge from a calendar-year average PCE projection [1][3][10]. Additionally, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)'s anticipated 2026 PCE methodology update was projected to lower annual PCE inflation by 0.1–0.2 percentage points, a revision that would not affect the CPI series on which prediction market contracts settle [3][10]. Near-term inflation evidence in September 2026 was elevated but mixed, with the Cleveland Fed nowcasting September CPI at 3.43% year over year and PCE at 3.89% [19].
Sources (19)
- 1Summary of Economic Projections, September 16, 2026prod-i.a.dj.com
- 2FOMC - September 2026pcbb.com
- 3FOMC Statement: September 2026am.jpmorgan.com
- 4Economics Indicators Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
- 5December 10, 2026: Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY) Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 6How much will core PCE increase in Nov 2026? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 7SURVEY OF MARKET EXPECTATIONS SEPTEMBER 2026newyorkfed.org
- 8IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 21 September 2026ic.com
- 9Goldman Sachs resets PCE inflation target after CPI...finance.yahoo.com
- 10No relief from inflation in July - KPMG Internationalkpmg.com
- 11The CPI–PCEPI Inflation Differential: Causes and Prospectsclevelandfed.org
- 12Infographic on Inflation: CPI versus PCE Price Indexclevelandfed.org
- 13What accounts for the differences in the PCE price index and the Consumer Price Index? | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
- 14A Reconciliation between the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
- 15Summary of Economic Projections, September 16, 2026newyorkfed.org
- 16Schedule of Selected Releases for November 2026bls.gov
- 17Schedule of Selected Releases for December 2026blsmon1.bls.gov
- 18Schedule of Selected Releases 2026blsmon1.bls.gov
- 19Inflation Nowcastingclevelandfed.org
7. What do leading indicators from Zillow and the Apartment List National Rent Report imply for the BLS shelter inflation component through November 2026?
| Rent of Primary Residence (Dec 2026 forecast) | 2.88% year over year [1] |
|---|---|
| Owners' Equivalent Rent (Dec 2026 forecast) | 3.36% [1] |
| National Median Rent (Aug 2026) | $1,390 (up 0.1% month over month) [2] |
Leading indicators from Zillow and Apartment List suggest BLS shelter inflation will contribute less forcefully to overall CPI. These indicators point towards shelter components contributing positively but with diminished intensity to overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) through November 2026, suggesting a mild-to-moderate overall CPI reading rather than an upside surprise driven by shelter costs [3][4][5][6]. Zillow's July 2026 CPI-shelter model specifically predicts Rent of Primary Residence inflation at 2.88% year over year and Owners' Equivalent Rent inflation at 3.36% by December 2026 [1].
Private rent indicators show cooling growth, pointing to future moderation. The leading-rent signal is observed to be cooling, rather than collapsing. Zillow's August 2026 market report indicates rents are up 2.5% year over year, while Apartment List's August report shows the national median rent at $1,390, which marks a 0.1% month-over-month increase for the seventh consecutive month, though it is still down 0.8% year over year. Apartment List also notes that vacancy has eased to 7.1%, suggesting modest near-term rent acceleration or stabilization instead of renewed rent inflation [1][2]. Zillow's 2026 rent outlook remains restrained, projecting approximately +1% year over year for multifamily rents and +2% for single-family rents by December [7][8][2].
Lagging official shelter data will gradually reflect current asking-rent trends. Given that BLS shelter measures existing leases and re-surveys only a fraction of housing units monthly, private asking-rent indicators typically precede CPI shelter by many months. Therefore, August/September 2026 asking-rent stabilization is expected to impact November CPI shelter gradually rather than causing an immediate sharp decline [9][1]. Official CPI shelter components were still showing modest monthly increases through August 2026, with the August rent of primary residence at 0.3% month over month not seasonally adjusted, which provides a higher near-term shelter-inflation base compared to year-over-year changes in asking rents alone [4][5][6]. While these housing indicators support a mild inflation contribution, they do not solely determine the total CPI year-over-year outcome, as non-shelter components represent the majority of remaining forecast uncertainty [10][11][3][4][5][6].
Sources (11)
- 1Zillow: CPI Shelter Forecast, July 2026zillow.com
- 2Apartment List National Rent Reportapartmentlist.com
- 3Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Rent of Shelter in U.S. City Average (CUSR0000SAS2RS) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 4Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Rent of Shelter in U.S. City Average | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 5Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Owners' Equivalent Rent of Residences in U.S. City Average (CUSR0000SEHC) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 6Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Rent of Primary Residence in U.S. City Average (CUSR0000SEHA) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 7Zillow Home Value and Home Sales Forecast (April 2026)zillow.com
- 8Zillow Forecasts Improved Rent Affordability Ahead...zillow.com
- 9The Sticky Last Mile | Finexus Researchfinexus.net
- 10December 10, 2026: Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY) Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 11Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY) - Kalshi noteringen | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
8. What evidence from energy and food commodity futures supports Goldman Sachs' forecast for late-year disinflation against current market pricing?
| Goldman Sachs 2026 Oil Forecast (Brent/WTI) | $56/$52 (Brent/WTI), compared to $59/$56 in forwards [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs December 2026 Core CPI Forecast | 2.0% [3] |
| November 2026 CPI Prediction Market | Roughly 3.6%–3.8% or higher [4][5][3] |
Energy commodity futures strongly support Goldman Sachs' forecast for late-year disinflation. This perspective contrasts with current prediction market pricing for November 2026 CPI, which implies persistent inflation materially above 3% [4][5]. Goldman Sachs' 2026 commodity outlook forecasts average Brent and WTI oil prices at $56 and $52, respectively, anticipating an approximately 2.0 million-barrel-per-day oil surplus, providing direct futures-market evidence for weaker energy input costs [1][2]. However, this support is conditional on later supply-wave views dominating and any Middle East shock fading, as earlier near-term energy assumptions by Goldman Sachs in May 2026 were much higher, with Brent around $100 per barrel [6]. The Cleveland Fed's September 14, 2026 nowcast indicates headline CPI inflation is currently elevated at 3.43% year over year, suggesting a later energy-price reversal could produce headline disinflation [7].
Food commodity evidence offers less consistent disinflationary support for Goldman Sachs' call. A March 2026 report noted global food prices rose 2.4% month over month and 1.0% year over year, with cereals increasing [8]. While CME reports indicate favorable growing conditions for grains [9], cattle herd contraction has supported livestock prices, and EPA biofuel mandates have boosted soybean-oil prices [9][10]. Goldman Sachs forecasts core CPI at 2.0% by December 2026, which is 0.3 percentage points below consensus and market pricing [3]. The November 2026 CPI prediction market, however, prices inflation materially above 3%, reflecting a divergence where market pricing extrapolates current elevated inflation [4][5][3].
Sources (10)
- 12026 Outlook: Ride the Power Race and Supply Wavesgoldmansachs.com
- 2Commodity Views 2026 Outlook: Ride the Power Race and Supply Waves | Goldman Sachsgoldmansachs.com
- 3US GDP Growth Is Projected to Outperform Economist Forecasts in 2026 | Goldman Sachsgoldmansachs.com
- 4December 10, 2026: Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY) Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 5Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY) — Kalshi voorspellingsmarkt-noteringen | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 6The Outlook for the US Consumer amid Rising Inflationgoldmansachs.com
- 7Inflation Nowcastingclevelandfed.org
- 8Are rising energy costs driving global food inflation now?agrolatam.com
- 9CME Group Agriculture Index July 2026 Market Update - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 10Understanding Major USDA Reports for Grains and Oilseed Markets - CME Groupcmegroup.com
9. What underlying data resolves the discrepancy between the November CPI release dates listed by Robinhood and RateSpike for December 2026?
| Official CPI-U Release Date for Nov 2026 | December 10, 2026, 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time [1][2] |
|---|---|
| CPI Series for Prediction Market | CPI-U, All Items, 12-month percent change [2][3][1] |
| November 2026 PPI Release Date | December 15, 2026 [4][1] |
The official U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) schedule confirms November 2026 CPI release on December 10. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) release schedule confirms that the CPI for the reference month of November 2026 will be published on December 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time [1][2]. This date aligns with Robinhood's stated resolution date for prediction markets [2]. In contrast, RateSpike's differing date for the CPI release is not supported by official BLS sources [1][2][4].
Prediction markets use the initial BLS CPI-U data for November 2026. The resolution for prediction markets relies on the first official BLS release of the unadjusted all-items CPI-U, specifically the percent change over the 12 months ending November 2026 [2][3][1]. This authoritative data is consistently scheduled for Thursday, December 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. This publication date is confirmed by the BLS CPI release schedule, the BLS's selected-release calendar, and FRED's Consumer Price Index release calendar [5][6][1][7]. A potential source of confusion leading to differing dates might be the November 2026 Producer Price Index (PPI), which is scheduled for release on December 15, 2026, separate from the CPI publication [4][1].
Sources (7)
- 1Schedule of Releases for the Consumer Price Indexbls.gov
- 2December 10, 2026: Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY) Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 3Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY) — Kalshi voorspellingsmarkt-noteringen | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 4Schedule of Releases for the Producer Price Indexbls.gov
- 5Schedule of Selected Releases for December 2026blsmon1.bls.gov
- 6Schedule of Selected Releases 2026bls.gov
- 7Economic Release Calendar - Consumer Price Index | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
10. Which specific CPI components are most likely to be influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and forward guidance in its final two FOMC meetings of 2026?
| Shelter CPI weight (August 2026) | 35.3% [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Owners' Equivalent Rent (August 2026) | 25.9% [1][2] |
| Gasoline CPI weight (August 2026) | 3.77% [1][2] |
Federal Reserve policy influences CPI through forward guidance, not immediate demand changes. Monetary policy typically operates with long and variable lags, meaning that Federal Reserve decisions from the October and December 2026 FOMC meetings are unlikely to materially affect the November 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) through newly changed demand alone [3][4][5]. The most plausible direct policy channel for influencing the November 2026 CPI is financial-market repricing resulting from forward guidance, which can impact market-sensitive goods and services before the full monetary-policy transmission lag [6][3][7]. Components most likely to be influenced include interest-sensitive core services such as transportation services (e.g., airfares, motor-vehicle insurance) and discretionary durable goods (e.g., used and new vehicles, household furnishings, appliances, other credit-sensitive durables) [6][3][8][7][9][1][2].
Shelter is a significant CPI component but exhibits lagged, complex policy responses. Shelter constituted about 35.3% of the CPI basket as of August 2026, including owners’ equivalent rent at 25.9%, making it a significant and policy-sensitive component [1][2]. However, its indexes are measured with lagged rent changes, and contractionary policy can sometimes even raise measured housing rents in the near term by shifting demand from homeownership to renting [7][10][6][11]. Less directly controlled by the Fed over this horizon are energy, food, new-vehicle prices, and trade/tariff-driven goods [6][3][8][7].
Core CPI excluding shelter offers the strongest near-term policy-sensitive signal. For the November 2026 CPI, the strongest near-term policy-sensitive signal is likely core CPI excluding shelter, particularly nonhousing services and goods, given the short timeframe after the October meeting [1][2][12][13][14]. Nonhousing market services, responding through factors like labor demand, wages, and financing conditions, will likely show limited response to late-2026 policy changes within the November data window [3][6][3][8][7].
Sources (14)
- 1Table 1. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average, by expenditure category - 2026 M08 Resultsbls.gov
- 2Consumer Price Index News Release - 2026 M08 Resultsbls.gov
- 3Speech by Governor Kugler on the transmission of monetary policyfederalreserve.gov
- 4The Fed - Meeting calendars and informationfederalreserve.gov
- 5The Fed - Meeting calendars and informationfederalreserve.gov
- 6Monetary Policy, Housing Rents, and Inflation Dynamicsfederalreserve.gov
- 7Measuring Price Change in the CPI: Rent and Rental Equivalence: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsblsmon1.bls.gov
- 8Relative Importance and Weight Information for the Consumer Price Indexes: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov
- 9Aug 2026, CPI for U.S. City Average: Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 10Measuring Price Change in the CPI: Rent and Rental Equivalence: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov
- 11The Fed - Monetary Policy, Housing Rents, and Inflationfederalreserve.gov
- 12Q2 2026, Table 2.3.4. Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product: Quarterly | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 13Residual Seasonality in Some Components of PCE Inflationclevelandfed.org
- 14Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, Excluding Food and Energy | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scheduled to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November 2026 on December 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET [1][2]. As of mid-September 2026, prediction markets indicated significant uncertainty regarding the exact November 2026 CPI year-over-year figure, with notable betting volume clustered around 3.2% [3][4][5]. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Inflation Nowcasting model, as of September 2026, does not provide specific forward-looking forecasts for November 2026, focusing instead on nowcasting current and immediate past periods [6][7][8].
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants, in their September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, projected median PCE inflation at 3.7% for the full year 2026, with a return to the 2% target not anticipated until 2029 [9][10][11]. Earlier, the FOMC published projections in June 2026, estimating PCE inflation to be 3.40% and Core PCE inflation to be 3.35% for the year 2026 (fourth-quarter to fourth-quarter) [12][13]. Economic analysts identify persistent fiscal deficits, geopolitical tensions impacting energy markets, and lingering effects of tariffs as key factors keeping inflation expectations elevated and complicating the path back to the 2% target [14][15][16].
In the coming days, the European Central Bank will determine whether to raise interest rates again as policymakers gather for their September meeting [17].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 11, 2027
- Closes: December 10, 2026
Sources (17)
- 1Schedule of Releases for the Consumer Price Indexbls.gov
- 2December 10, 2026: Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY) Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 3CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
- 4CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? — Kalshi Prediction Market Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 5Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY) — Kalshi Prediction Market Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 6Inflation Nowcastingclevelandfed.org
- 7Nowcasting Inflationclevelandfed.org
- 8A User’s Guide to the Inflation Nowcasting Website Inflation measures Each day, the model produces nowcasts for four common inflation measures: • PCE. Inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, more commonly referred to as PCE inflation. • Core PCE. Inflation in the PCE price index excluding food and energy, also known as core PCE inflation. • CPI. Inflation in the consumer price index (CPI). • Core CPI. Inflation in the CPI excluding food and energy, also known as core CPI inflation. Inflation rates For each measure, the model reports inflation rates in terms of: • Monthly inflation: the month-over-month rate of inflation, seasonally adjusted, expressed as nonannualized percent changes; these monthly inflation rates are also used to compute the year-over-year rate of inflation in percentage terms through a given month. • Quarterly inflation: the quarter-to-quarter rate of inflation, expressed in percentage terms at seasonally adjusted annualized rates (SAAR). Inflation nowcasts Our model produces forecasts of current inflation, commonly called “nowcasts,” before the data are officially released, by nowcasting the immediate past, present, and future. The nowcasts always fill in “the next data point”—or, in some cases, the next two data points, if we judge that there is enough information available for the nowcasting model to use. For example, during the month of January, we make inflation nowcasts of December’s monthly inflation rates—until they are officially released— and January’s monthly inflation rates. In January we also make nowcasts of the previous year’s fourth-quarter inflation rates until they are officially released, in addition to the current year’s first quarter inflation rates. But once we get to February, we know the fourth-quarter’s official inflation rates, so we only need to nowcast the first-quarter’s inflation rates. (At that point, we are also nowcasting January’s monthly inflation rates until they are officially releasclevelandfed.org
- 9The Fed - September 16, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible versionfederalreserve.gov
- 10Summary of Economic Projections, September 16, 2026newyorkfed.org
- 11FOMC Summary of Economic Projections, September 2026 | FRED Blogfredblog.stlouisfed.org
- 12FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Personal Consumption Expenditures Inflation Rate, Range, Midpoint | ALFRED | St. Louis Fedalfred.stlouisfed.org
- 13FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Personal Consumption Expenditures less Food and Energy Inflation Rate, Central Tendency, Midpoint (JCXFECTM) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 14Flash Macrokkr.com
- 15Full Report: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2026 | OECDoecd.org
- 16Economic outlook _Fall_2026_Erbcgam.com
- 17Daybreak Weekend: US CPI, ECB Decision, BRICS Summit | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 5 resolved YES, 15 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXCPIYOY-26AUG-T2.5: YES (Sep 11, 2026)
- KXCPIYOY-26AUG-T2.6: YES (Sep 11, 2026)
- KXCPIYOY-26AUG-T2.7: YES (Sep 11, 2026)
- KXCPIYOY-26AUG-T2.8: YES (Sep 11, 2026)
- KXCPIYOY-26AUG-T2.9: YES (Sep 11, 2026)
