Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Core CPI in April 2026 to be above 0.0%, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This prediction market has exhibited a completely static price trend since its inception. The probability has remained fixed at 98.0% across all 15 data points, indicating a total absence of price movement. Consequently, there have been no price spikes, drops, or any volatility to analyze. The context regarding the upcoming April 2026 CPI release and the recent March 2026 inflation data has had no discernible impact on the market's price, as no trading activity has occurred.
The lack of price action is directly explained by the market's volume, which stands at zero contracts traded. This complete illiquidity signifies that the current 98.0% price is not the result of participant activity or consensus building. Instead, it likely represents an initial, untested price. Because there has been no buying or selling, it is impossible to identify any support or resistance levels. The chart does not reflect any genuine market sentiment or conviction regarding the outcome of the April 2026 Core CPI report; it only shows a dormant market with no participant engagement to date.
  • FOMC statements highlight upside inflation risks and energy cost pass-through.
  • Geopolitical conflict significantly raised energy prices by April 2026.
  • Shelter disinflation will not fully manifest in Core CPI by April 2026.
  • Market reaction suggests April Core CPI MoM could exceed prior month.
  • The April 2026 Core CPI report release on May 12, 2026 is a catalyst.

Current Context

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2026 is scheduled for release on May 12. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the data on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. (ET) [1][2][3][4][5]. For March 2026, the headline CPI-U increased by 0.9% month-over-month (MoM) and 3.3% year-over-year (YoY) [1][3][6][7]. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, rose by 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY in March [1][8][3][6][9]. Federal Reserve policymakers expressed rising concern about inflation at their April meeting, opting to hold policy steady [10][11]. There is a general consensus that rate cuts are not expected in the near term, as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintains a "wait-and-see" mode regarding the ongoing conflict in Iran [12][13][7][11]. The Federal Reserve's long-term target for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation is 2% [8][13].
Geopolitical tensions and energy prices pose significant upside risks. A primary factor driving headline inflation is the ongoing conflict in Iran and its impact on global energy prices, with crude oil surging above $100 per barrel and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz [12][8][14][15][16][7][11]. Gasoline prices alone saw a 21.2% MoM increase in March due to the conflict, significantly driving headline inflation [12][1][3][6][7]. While higher energy costs are expected to directly impact headline figures, they may also lead to a disinflationary effect on other "core" categories as consumers potentially reduce discretionary spending [14]. Conversely, a slow decline in shelter and housing-related inflation is expected to exert downward pressure on core inflation [8][14]. Geopolitical uncertainty broadly remains an upside risk to medium-term inflation [8]. Looking ahead to April 2026, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Inflation Nowcasting tool projected a year-over-year inflation jump of 26 basis points to 3.56% as of April 23 [12], while monthly core inflation is broadly anticipated to remain stable at around 0.3% [15].
Prediction markets reflect elevated inflation expectations for April 2026. Robinhood's prediction market indicates higher probabilities for year-over-year CPI inflation exceeding 3.5% (89¢), 3.6% (66¢), and 3.7% (32¢) [17]. Kalshi's market for April CPI (YoY) shows probabilities of 78% for inflation above 3.5%, 40% for above 3.6%, and 20% for above 3.7% [18]. For the month-over-month Core CPI in April 2026, Kalshi shows probabilities of 82% for an increase above 0.2% and 53% for an increase above 0.3% [19].
Sources (19)
  1. 1bls.gov
  2. 2bls.gov
  3. 3bls.gov
  4. 4usinflationcalculator.com
  5. 5bls.gov
  6. 6tradingeconomics.com
  7. 7stephens.com
  8. 8treasury.govhome.treasury.gov
  9. 9senate.govjec.senate.gov
  10. 10youtube.com
  11. 11mufgresearch.com
  12. 12fool.com
  13. 13tradingtrainer.com
  14. 14enterprisebank.com
  15. 15mutualofamerica.com
  16. 16ameripriseadvisors.com
  17. 17robinhood.com
  18. 18kalshi.com
  19. 19kalshi.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📉 May 01, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 58.0% to 49.0%

Outcome: Above 0.3%

What happened:

The 9.0 percentage point drop in the "CPI core in Apr 2026" market on May 1, 2026, was primarily driven by news indicating decelerating inflation in a major global economy. On this date, Reuters reported that Tokyo's core inflation (excluding fresh food and fuel) remained below the central bank's 2% target in April, reaching a four-year low for the headline core year-over-year measure [1]. This coincided with the market movement and likely led traders to adjust their expectations for global, including US, core inflation downwards, reducing the perceived probability of US core CPI exceeding 0.3%.

Social media was irrelevant, as no pertinent social media activity was found for this period in the provided research.

📈 April 30, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 53.0% to 62.0%

Outcome: Above 0.3%

What happened: The primary driver was the release of the March 2026 PCE inflation data on April 30, 2026. The report showed core PCE rose 0.3% month-over-month [2], which likely caused traders to anticipate that April's CPI core could also exceed 0.3%, especially considering March's core CPI was reported at 0.2% [3]. This was further influenced by broader inflationary concerns stemming from rising energy prices due to the Iran conflict [4]. No significant social media activity or posts from key figures were identified as causing or coinciding with this specific price movement. Social media was irrelevant.
Sources (4)
  1. 1Core inflation in Tokyo slows, seen accelerating on energy shock | Reutersreuters.com
  2. 2PCE inflation rate March 2026:cnbc.com
  3. 3CPI inflation report March 2026: Consumer prices rose 3.3%cnbc.com
  4. 4Fed’s key inflation gauge hits 3.5% as Iran war pushes up gas prices | CNN Businesscnn.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to Yes if the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy for April 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), increases by above 0.3%. It resolves to No if the increase is 0.3% or less, based on the BLS's single-decimal value. The market closes on May 12, 2026, at 8:25 AM EDT, with projected payout by 11:00 AM EDT, and the expiration date can be extended due to federal government shutdown-related data delays.

Market Discussion

The primary viewpoint discussed by traders focuses on the potential for core CPI in April 2026 to rise above 0.3%. One participant argues that a significant increase is likely due to an anticipated "payback" from missing October 2025 rent/OER data, expected to double the usual pace of OER/rent in April 2026. There are no explicit arguments for a "No" outcome presented in the discussion, although the market shows a 52% probability for CPI core being above 0.3%.

5. What is the projected impact of geopolitical events on energy prices and their potential pass-through to Core CPI by April 2026?

Brent Crude Price IncreaseMore than 50% higher (mid-April 2026 vs. beginning of year) [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Brent Crude Peak Price$126 per barrel (April 30, 2026) [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Core CPI M-o-M (March 2026)0.2% (March 2026) [7][8][9][10]
Geopolitical conflict significantly raised energy prices by April 2026. A major conflict involving the U.S. and Iran, commencing in February 2026, severely disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil trade [11][2][12][4][5][9][13][6]. This led to Brent crude prices soaring over 50% by mid-April 2026 compared to the year's start, reaching more than $126 per barrel by April 30, 2026, the highest level since March 2022 [1][2][3][4][5][6]. The World Bank, in April 2026, projected a 24% increase in energy prices for the year, with Brent crude averaging $86 a barrel under a baseline scenario where disruptions ease, potentially climbing to $115 in an escalated situation [1][3]. Natural gas markets also experienced heightened volatility due to these geopolitical tensions and disruptions to global liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows, which increased demand for U.S. LNG exports [14][15][16][17][18].
Energy price shocks directly impacted Core CPI by April 2026. The energy price surge profoundly influenced the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), demonstrating a pass-through effect through both direct increases in energy-sensitive core components and broader macroeconomic impacts [1][11][2][12][14][3][4][5][9][13][6][19][7][8][20][21]. Economic research indicates that core inflation can rise for approximately 14 months following an energy shock, with the peak impact on 12-month core inflation estimated at about 0.21 percentage points [22]. A significant mechanism for this pass-through is through energy-intensive services, such as airfares, where elevated fuel costs for airlines and logistics companies contribute to higher consumer prices [19][20]. The CPI report for March 2026, released in April, showed core CPI increasing 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, up from 2.5% in February, reflecting the initial effects of rising energy costs [9][7][8][10]. Preliminary estimates for April 2026 suggested a monthly core CPI increase of 0.21% and a year-over-year rise of 2.61% [21].
Sources (22)
  1. 1worldbank.org
  2. 2rigzone.com
  3. 3mining.com
  4. 4discoveryalert.com.au
  5. 5cryptobriefing.com
  6. 6theguardian.com
  7. 7morningstar.com
  8. 8nam.org
  9. 9stephens.com
  10. 10bls.gov
  11. 11edc.ca
  12. 12dallasfed.org
  13. 13time.com
  14. 14investing.com
  15. 15naturalgasintel.com
  16. 16forbes.com
  17. 17naga.com
  18. 18iea.org
  19. 19reddit.com
  20. 20mufgresearch.com
  21. 21clevelandfed.org
  22. 22lse.ac.uk

6. How do recent FOMC meeting minutes and Federal Reserve statements frame their inflation outlook and policy bias for early 2026?

Inflation OutlookElevated with upside risks, partly due to higher energy prices (early 2026) [1][2][3]
Target RangeMaintained at 3-1/2% to 3-3/4% [3]
Policy BiasCareful assessment of incoming data, no preset easing path [3][4][5]
The Federal Reserve's early 2026 inflation outlook is elevated with upside risks. Staff forecasts have been lifted, partly due to higher energy prices and concerns that inflation might prove more persistent than initially anticipated [1][2][3]. Minutes from the March 17–18, 2026 meeting specifically indicated that staff projected higher oil prices would increase inflation in the near term, potentially delaying the return to the 2% objective [1]. This elevated outlook was underscored by one Fed President's dissenting view against maintaining an easing-bias language, citing significant upside risks to inflation from both rising oil prices and broad-based pressures [6].
Monetary policy in early 2026 adopted a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. The April 29, 2026 FOMC statement maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2% to 3-3/4%, emphasizing the Committee's intention to "carefully assess" incoming data, the evolving economic outlook, and the balance of risks before determining future adjustments [3]. This approach meant that policy bias was characterized by flexibility based on incoming data rather than a preset easing path [4][5]. Furthermore, some participants identified the risk of inflation running persistently above the Committee's objective as significant [4][5].
Sources (6)
  1. 1The Fed - Monetary Policy:federalreserve.gov
  2. 2Federal Reserve Board - Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 17–18, 2026federalreserve.gov
  3. 3The full statement from the Federal Reserve April FOMC meetinglongbridge.com
  4. 4The Fed - Monetary Policy:federalreserve.gov
  5. 5The Fed - Monetary Policy:federalreserve.gov
  6. 6Fed's Hammack says no longer appropriate to signal rate cut biasca.finance.yahoo.com

7. How do the Cleveland Fed's Nowcasting projections for early 2026 compare with consensus forecasts from major investment banks like Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan?

Cleveland Fed April 2026 Core CPI MoM0.21% (as of May 1, 2026) [1]
Cleveland Fed April 2026 Core CPI YoY2.56% (as of May 12, 2026) [2]
Major Banks April 2026 Core CPI ForecastNo specific numerical forecasts from Goldman Sachs or J.P. Morgan [3][4][5]
The Cleveland Fed projects specific core CPI figures for April 2026. The Cleveland Federal Reserve's Nowcasting model forecasts April 2026 core Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth at 0.21% month-over-month (MoM) as of May 1, 2026 [1]. The model further projects the year-over-year (YoY) core CPI at 2.56% as of May 12, 2026 [2]. These projections precede the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) expected release of official April 2026 core CPI data on May 12, 2026 [6][7].
Major investment banks offer broader inflation outlooks, not April 2026 core CPI. In contrast, leading investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan have not published specific numerical forecasts for April 2026 core CPI [3][4][5]. While these institutions provide comprehensive inflation analyses, their reports do not include a direct projection for this precise metric and period. Goldman Sachs, for example, projected a 2.6% core CPI year-over-year for March in an April 21, 2026 report, anticipating a deceleration to 2.1% by the close of 2026 [3], and also raised its core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation estimate to 2.6% YoY by December 2026 [8]. J.P. Morgan's January 2026 report indicated a gradual decrease in year-over-year CPI to 2.8% by the fourth quarter of 2026 [4], and an April 2026 update observed core inflation in March rose less than expected, but without an April specific forecast [5].
Sources (8)
  1. 1seekingalpha.com
  2. 2macromicro.meen.macromicro.me
  3. 3thestreet.com
  4. 4binance.com
  5. 5interactivebrokers.com
  6. 6bls.gov
  7. 7bls.gov
  8. 8investing.com

8. What is the release schedule for key precursor economic reports, such as the PPI and PCE price index, for Q1 2026?

January 2026 PPI ReleaseFebruary 27, 2026 [1]
March 2026 PCE ReleaseApril 30, 2026 [2]
April 2026 CPI ReleaseMay 12, 2026 [3]
Q1 2026 precursor economic reports have specific release schedules. The Producer Price Index (PPI) releases for January, February, and March 2026 are scheduled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for February 27, 2026; March 18, 2026; and April 14, 2026, respectively [1][4][5]. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) PCE price index data for January, February, and March 2026 are set for release on March 13, 2026; April 9, 2026; and April 30, 2026, respectively [6][7][2]. All these precursor economic reports are slated for release at 8:30 AM ET.
The April 2026 CPI release is scheduled for May 12, 2026. The corresponding Consumer Price Index (CPI) release relevant to the market "CPI core in Apr 2026" is scheduled by the BLS for May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET [3]. All Q1 2026 PPI and PCE releases are confirmed to occur prior to the resolution of this specific market [3].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Schedule of Releases for the Producer Price Indexbls.gov
  2. 2Personal Income and Outlays, March 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
  3. 3Schedule of Releases for the Consumer Price Indexbls.gov
  4. 4Producer Price Index News Release - 2026 M02 Resultsbls.gov
  5. 5Producer Price Index Home: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov
  6. 6Personal Income and Outlays, December 2025 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
  7. 7Personal Income and Outlays, February 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov

9. What is the expected timeline for shelter disinflation to fully manifest in the Core CPI calculations by the April 2026 report?

Shelter CPI Lag6 to 12 months, potentially 12 to 14 months [1][2][3][4]
BLS Rent Data Collection FrequencyEvery six months [5][6]
Zillow February 2026 CPI OER Inflation Forecast3.1% annually [7]
Shelter disinflation will not fully manifest in Core CPI by April 2026. This is primarily due to inherent measurement lags within the Consumer Price Index (CPI) calculations [1][2][3]. Experts widely agree that shelter inflation acts as a lagging indicator, with its impact on the CPI typically delayed by 6 to 12 months, and some analyses suggesting even longer lags of 12 to 14 months [1][2][3][4]. This delay arises partly because the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) collects rent data semi-annually [5][6]. Furthermore, the CPI shelter index incorporates both new and existing leases, and existing leases often adjust more slowly than current market rates [2][8][4][6]. Market-based rent measures, which have significantly cooled over the past year, tend to precede CPI shelter inflation by approximately twelve months, indicating sustained downward pressure on official shelter costs through early 2026 [3][4].
Disinflationary trends will continue but April 2026 CPI may lag. While the disinflationary trend in shelter costs is projected to persist and moderate the Core CPI, the April 2026 report may still reflect historical rent increases rather than current market conditions [1][2][3]. In March 2026, Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, decelerated to a 2.4% annualized pace [9], with the shelter index specifically rising 0.3% monthly and 3.0% annually [10]. This particular adjustment is expected to contribute approximately 0.1% to both monthly and 12-month CPI, and a slightly higher amount to core CPI inflation [11][12]. For example, certain markets indicate a strong probability that the US shelter CPI in April 2026 will register "Above 424.0" or "Above 426.0" [13][14].
Sources (14)
  1. 1ritholtz.com
  2. 2nber.org
  3. 3td.comeconomics.td.com
  4. 4williamblair.com
  5. 5bls.gov
  6. 6marketplace.org
  7. 7zillow.com
  8. 8bostonfed.org
  9. 9pnc.com
  10. 10bls.gov
  11. 11bls.gov
  12. 12haver.com
  13. 13kalshi.com
  14. 14coinbase.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The release of the April 2026 Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET, is a significant market catalyst [1][2]. This follows a March 2026 Core CPI reading of 2.6% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month [3][4]. Current expectations for April's Core CPI hover around 2.60% year-over-year, with the Cleveland Fed's nowcast projecting 2.56% year-over-year and 0.21% month-over-month as of May 4 [3][5][6]. For context, the March headline CPI spiked to 3.3% year-over-year primarily due to a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices, while the core inflation measure showed cooling [4].
Key factors influencing the April report include potential disinflationary pressures such as shelter costs increasing by 0.2% month-over-month or less, and a decline in gasoline prices [7]. Conversely, a bearish catalyst could be a lagged impact on transportation costs from the energy spike observed in March [7]. The US Dollar's direction is also closely tied to this release: a Core CPI exceeding 2.70% could strengthen the USD by implying a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, whereas a figure below 2.40% might weaken it due to expectations of a more dovish monetary policy [3]. Prediction markets, such as Robinhood, show notable probabilities for CPI year-over-year (likely headline CPI given the figures) exceeding 3.5% and 3.6%, while Kalshi has active markets for core CPI components [8][9][10].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: May 19, 2026
  • Closes: May 12, 2026
Sources (10)
  1. 1Schedule of Releases for the Consumer Price Indexbls.gov
  2. 2CPI Shock Incoming May 12: Trump vs Powell Drama Fuel Marketcoingabbar.com
  3. 3US Core Inflation Preview: What to Expect Apr 30, 2026 08:30 ET - FXMacroDatafxmacrodata.com
  4. 4CPI inflation report March 2026: Consumer prices rose 3.3%cnbc.com
  5. 5Inflation Nowcastingclevelandfed.org
  6. 6Inflation Nowcastingclevelandfed.org
  7. 7March CPI Runs Hot on Gasoline, Core Cools: Fed Covertechi.com
  8. 8May 12, 2026: Inflation in Apr 2026 (CPI YoY) Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  9. 9CPI core in April Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  10. 10CPI core month-over-month in April? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 14 markets in this series

Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXCPICORE-26MAR-T0.7: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
  • KXCPICORE-26MAR-T0.6: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
  • KXCPICORE-26MAR-T0.5: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
  • KXCPICORE-26MAR-T0.4: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
  • KXCPICORE-26MAR-T0.3: NO (Apr 10, 2026)