Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth in August
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Mountain Dew POS growth is expected above -8% due to intensified market bearish sentiment.
- Achieving growth above -4% appears challenging, given PBNA's 4% Q2 organic unit volume decline.
- A late-August product launch is expected to have limited impact on August sales figures.
Current Context
Sources (13)
- 1Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth in August - Kalshikalshi.com
- 2Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth in August | Prediction Markets...coinbase.com
- 3Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth in August - Prophet Arenaprophetarena.co
- 4Will Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be... - PMIPpmip.io
- 5Documentsec.gov
- 6Documentsec.gov
- 7Documentsec.gov
- 8Mountain Dew® x Trolli® Mango Pineapple Punch Delivers Bold Tropical Flavors in New Limited-Edition Sodaprnewswire.com
- 9PepsiCo faces 4% beverage volume decline as Mountain Dew Trolli launch rolls outts2.tech
- 10Mountain Dew, Trolli collab on Mango Pineapple Punch flavorusatoday.com
- 11Mountain Dew and Trolli soda taps sweet-and-spicy flavor trend | Vending Market Watchvendingmarketwatch.com
- 12Mountain Dew and Trolli launch Mango Pineapple Punch sodaqz.com
- 13pep-20251227 - SEC.govsec.gov
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above -8%
📈 September 03, 2026: 75.0pp spike
Price increased from 10.0% to 85.0%
📈 August 29, 2026: 20.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 21.0%
📉 August 25, 2026: 23.0pp drop
Price decreased from 24.0% to 1.0%
Outcome: Above -12%
📉 August 27, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 99.0% to 89.0%
📈 August 26, 2026: 35.0pp spike
Price increased from 64.0% to 99.0%
Sources (37)
- 1LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner — Historical market archive | Orrery | Orreryorrery.me
- 2https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/865752/000110465926092046/tm2622396d1_ex99-2.htmsec.gov
- 3R28.htmsec.gov
- 4PepsiCo faces 4% beverage volume decline as Mountain Dew Trolli launch rolls outts2.tech
- 5Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth in August - Kalshikalshi.com
- 6Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth in August | Prediction Markets...coinbase.com
- 7Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth in August - Prophet Arenaprophetarena.co
- 8Will Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be... - PMIPpmip.io
- 9Will Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be... - PMIPpmip.io
- 10pep-20251227sec.gov
- 11Tm2613885d1 ex99 2.htmsec.gov
- 12Tm267393d1 ex99 2.htmsec.gov
- 13Documentsec.gov
- 14EDGAR Filing Documents for 0001104659-26-092046sec.gov
- 15https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1171759/000089843002001620/dex1027.txtsec.gov
- 16https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418135/000141813526000048/0001418135-26-000048.txtsec.gov
- 17https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/865752/000110465926092193/R10.htmsec.gov
- 18Cboe Titanium Weekend Testing | Cboecboe.com
- 19https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1462418/000122520816038589/0001225208-16-038589.txtsec.gov
- 20https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1567892/000089924322023441/0000899243-22-023441.txtsec.gov
- 21https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1557265/000119312526360659/0001193125-26-360659.txtsec.gov
- 220001214659 20 005740sec.gov
- 23PepsiCo's Mountain Dew Trolli Launch Tests Innovation Amid Volume Dip | StockTistockti.com
- 24Mountain Dew and Trolli soda taps sweet-and-spicy flavor trend | Vending Market Watchvendingmarketwatch.com
- 25Mountain Dew® x Trolli® Team Up to Offer New Mango Pineapple Punch Sodavendingconnection.com
- 26Olivia Rodrigo unveils new MOUNTAIN DEW Baja Blast at Taco Bell | Beverage Industrybevindustry.com
- 27Tm2530426d1 ex99 2.htmsec.gov
- 28Documentsec.gov
- 29Documentsec.gov
- 30kdp-20260806sec.gov
- 31Exhibitsec.gov
- 32https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1071321/000134100422000072/ex99-30.htmsec.gov
- 33https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/939187/000110465906066499/0001104659-06-066499.txtsec.gov
- 34R54.htmsec.gov
- 35V337743 ex99 1.htmsec.gov
- 36Mountain Dew, Trolli collab on Mango Pineapple Punch flavorusatoday.com
- 37Mountain Dew® x Trolli® Mango Pineapple Punch Delivers Bold Tropical Flavors in New Limited-Edition Sodaprnewswire.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves based on the Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth in August. A 'YES' position pays out if the growth percentage is above the contract's specified threshold (e.g., -20%), while a 'NO' position pays out if it is at or below that threshold. Final data is awaited in September 2026, with a maximum payout date of September 6, 2026.
Market Discussion
There is no publicly disclosed or brand-level point-of-sale (POS) growth figure specifically for Mountain Dew in August 2026 in the provided research [1]. While PepsiCo announced a national launch of a new Mountain Dew Trolli flavor variant on August 24, 2026, aimed at driving trial and addressing a broader 4% decline in North American beverage unit volume during Q2 2026, this does not directly report August POS growth [2]. Industry scanner data through mid-August 2026 showed carbonated soft drinks (CSDs) generally struggling with volume drops [3]. Official Carbon Arc data, which prediction markets like Kalshi will use to resolve on "Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth in August 2026," is expected around September 7, 2026 [4].
Sources (4)
- 1seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
- 2PepsiCo faces 4% beverage volume decline as Mountain Dew Trolli launch rolls outts2.tech
- 3Beer Marketer's Insights - SCANNER DATA: Energy Drinks Still on a Roll on Volume & Price Growth, Along with Sports Drinks and Coconut Waterbeerinsights.com
- 4Will Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be... - PMIPpmip.io
5. Trader Dashboard
6. What sales impact can be expected from the late-August launch of 'Mountain Dew x Trolli' on the month's final point-of-sale figures?
| Launch Date | August 24, 2026 [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| PepsiCo NA Beverage Volume Decline | 4% [5][6] |
| August Growth Prediction Market | Bearish [7] |
Sources (7)
- 1Mountain Dew® x Trolli® Mango Pineapple Punch delivers bold...pepsico.com
- 2Mountain Dew® x Trolli® Mango Pineapple Punch Delivers Bold Tropical Flavors in New Limited-Edition Sodaprnewswire.com
- 3Mountain Dew, Trolli collab on Mango Pineapple Punch flavorusatoday.com
- 4Mountain Dew, Trolli announce Mango Pineapple Punch release | Beverage Industrybevindustry.com
- 5PepsiCo faces 4% beverage volume decline as Mountain Dew Trolli launch rolls outts2.tech
- 6PepsiCo's Mountain Dew Trolli Launch Tests Innovation Amid Volume Dip | StockTistockti.com
- 7Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth in August - Kalshikalshi.com
7. What was Mountain Dew's point-of-sale growth in Q2 2026 and August 2025, establishing a baseline for August 2026 performance?
| Mountain Dew POS growth | Not disclosed (PepsiCo does not report SKU-level data) [1] |
|---|---|
| PBNA total unit volume decline (Q2 2026) | 4% [1][2] |
| Broader retail same-store sales increase (August 2025) | 8.3% year-over-year (NRSInsights) [3] |
8. How has Mountain Dew's market share within the U.S. carbonated soft drink sector compared to competitors like Coca-Cola and Dr Pepper through mid-2026?
| Mountain Dew CSD Market Share | 6% to 7% (through 2026) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| U.S. CSD Market Value | over $58 billion (2026) [3] |
| Dr Pepper CSD Market Share | 7.2% (early 2026) [4] |
Sources (6)
- 1U.S. market share of the Mountain Dew brand 2024| Statistastatista.com
- 2Mountain Dew: 2026 Updated Guideaccio.com
- 3US Carbonated Soft Drinks Market Report 2026 | Mintel Storestore.mintel.com
- 4Market Share of Coke vs. Pepsi vs. Dr Peppereathealthy365.com
- 5Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth in Augustkalshi.com
- 6Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth in August | Prediction Marketscoinbase.com
9. Which specific data report will determine this market's outcome, and what is its official release date in September 2026?
| Market resolution data | August 2026 sales data [1] |
|---|---|
| Market resolution date | September 7, 2026 [1] |
| Underlying data source | PDI Technologies (Skupos) [2] |
10. How does PepsiCo's overall Q2 2026 performance and full-year guidance for its North American beverages segment inform expectations for a core brand like Mountain Dew?
| PBNA Q2 2026 Net Revenue Increase | 7% (driven by pricing and acquisitions) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| PBNA Q2 2026 Organic Unit Volume Decline | 4% [1][2][3][4] |
| Full Year 2026 Organic Revenue Growth Guidance | 2% to 4% [1][5][4] |
Sources (6)
- 1Second-Quarter 2026 Earnings Prepared Management Remarks 7/9/26investors.pepsico.com
- 2[PDF] PepsiCo Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.pepsico.com
- 3PepsiCo Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Results - SEC.govsec.gov
- 4PepsiCo faces 4% beverage volume decline as Mountain Dew Trolli launch rolls outts2.tech
- 5PepsiCo (PEP) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 6PepsiCo's Mountain Dew Trolli Launch Tests Innovation Amid Volume Dip | StockTistockti.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 14, 2026
- Closes: September 07, 2026
Sources (13)
- 1Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth in August - Kalshikalshi.com
- 2Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth in August | Prediction Markets...coinbase.com
- 3Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth in August - Prophet Arenaprophetarena.co
- 4PepsiCo faces 4% beverage volume decline as Mountain Dew Trolli launch rolls outts2.tech
- 5Documentsec.gov
- 6Documentsec.gov
- 7Documentsec.gov
- 8https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/77476/000007747626000035/R2.htmsec.gov
- 9Menu Transformation: Beverages Move from Add-Ons to Restaurant Growth Driversprnewswire.com
- 10US Restaurant Beverage Trends: Drinks drive footfall and growth as Gen Z and millennials seek new flavoursbeveragedaily.com
- 11Drink Trends August 2026 - Simpsons Beveragessimpsonsbeverages.com
- 12Q2 2026 8-K - Exhibit 99.1investors.pepsico.com
- 13PepsiCo Announces Timing and Availability of Third-Quarter 2026...pepsico.com