Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth in August
Short Answer
Mountain Dew point-of-sale growth in August is expected to exceed -16%, despite PepsiCo Beverages North America's 4% organic unit volume decline in Q2 2026 and a late-August product launch expected to have limited impact on August sales (99.0%).
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
Trading in this market is driven by the absence of finalized August 2026 Point of Sale (POS) growth figures for Mountain Dew ahead of the contract's September 7 resolution. The most significant recent move, an 8 percentage point drop to 60% on September 3, occurred as a lack of supporting evidence tempered expectations. Research found no SEC filings or financial disclosures to substantiate a rumored growth spike, causing the probability to fall from a high of 68%.
An earlier 8 percentage point drop on August 27, from 11% to 3%, has no clear driver in the available information. No specific news, official announcements, or social media narratives correspond with that price change. The market's overall upward trajectory, from a starting price of 11% to a peak of 71%, indicates that sentiment has generally increased, though it remains sensitive to the information vacuum.
- Mountain Dew POS growth is expected above -8% due to intensified market bearish sentiment.
- Achieving growth above -4% appears challenging, given PBNA's 4% Q2 organic unit volume decline.
- A late-August product launch is expected to have limited impact on August sales figures.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above -4% | 60.0% | 46.6% | Achieving growth above -4% is challenging given PepsiCo's 4% organic unit volume decline in Q2 2026. |
| Above -8% | 85.0% | 77.1% | Intensified bearish sentiment and segment volume headwinds reflect challenges for growth above -8%. |
| Above -16% | 99.0% | 98.6% | The 4% organic unit volume decline in Q2 2026 makes growth above -16% likely. |
| Above -12% | 99.0% | 98.6% | The 4% organic unit volume decline in Q2 2026 suggests growth above -12% is expected. |
| Above -20% | 80.0% | 98.6% | Despite volume decline, growth above -20% is expected as Q2 2026 segment decline was 4%. |
Current Context
Mountain Dew August POS growth lacks finalized figures, driving market trading. As of September 3, 2026, no finalized August 2026 Point of Sale (POS) growth figure for Mountain Dew is available [^]. Prediction markets are actively trading on this metric with a resolution date of September 7, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. Specific August 2026 POS growth figures for Mountain Dew are not publicly itemized in recent SEC filings [^][^][^]. However, PepsiCo expects to build upon its North American beverage business momentum throughout the second half of 2026 [^][^][^].
PepsiCo launched a new Mountain Dew flavor to counter volume slides. The company introduced a limited-edition 'Mountain Dew x Trolli Mango Pineapple Punch' beverage on August 24, 2026, available through October 2026 [^][^][^][^][^]. This launch is part of a strategy to combat recent volume declines [^][^][^][^][^]. Mountain Dew is a core product within PepsiCo Beverages North America (PBNA), which manufactures, markets, and sells trademark Mountain Dew and Mountain Dew Baja Blast [^]. PepsiCo reported a 2.4% increase in organic revenue for the second quarter of 2026, maintaining full-year 2026 guidance for organic revenue growth at 2-4% [^][^][^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above -8%
📈 September 03, 2026: 75.0pp spike
Price increased from 10.0% to 85.0%
What happened: The research indicates that no evidence supports the claim of a 75.0 percentage point spike in the "Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth in August" prediction market on September 03, 2026 [^]. Available SEC filings and financial disclosures from relevant companies also do not contain data supporting such a specific figure or event for August 2026 [^]-[^]. While PepsiCo launched a limited-edition Mountain Dew Trolli flavor in late August 2026, this product initiative is not linked to a 75.0pp market movement or a POS growth catalyst of that magnitude [^]. Therefore, without confirmation of the reported market movement, social media activity cannot be identified as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or even noise in this context.
📈 August 29, 2026: 20.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 21.0%
What happened: The provided web research indicates there is no evidence of a 20.0 percentage point spike in the "Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth in August" prediction market occurring on August 29, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Consequently, there is no public report of a specific social media or traditional news catalyst driving such a significant positive movement for Mountain Dew Point of Sale growth in late August 2026 [^][^]. Based on the available information, social media activity appears irrelevant to this unsupported market movement.
📉 August 25, 2026: 23.0pp drop
Price decreased from 24.0% to 1.0%
What happened: The provided web research does not identify a clear primary driver for the 23.0 percentage point drop in the "Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth in August" prediction market on August 25, 2026. No specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives was found to have precipitated this significant decline. While PepsiCo announced new product collaborations, such as the Mountain Dew x Trolli Mango Pineapple Punch in late August 2026 and an Olivia Rodrigo Baja Blast on August 28, 2026, these were initiatives to boost engagement and offset existing beverage volume declines, not to signal a further sharp drop [^][^][^][^][^]. Furthermore, relevant SEC filings for major beverage companies covering the August 2026 period did not report data reflecting such a decline by the specified date [^][^][^][^][^]. Consequently, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver, and no other clear cause is evident from the available information.
Outcome: Above -12%
📉 August 27, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 99.0% to 89.0%
What happened: The provided web research does not contain any social media activity from key figures or viral narratives related to a 10.0 percentage point drop in Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth in August 2026 [N/A]. Similarly, no traditional news or official announcements, including SEC filings, confirm a specific 10.0pp decline in Mountain Dew POS growth on August 27, 2026, or for August in general [^][^][^][^][^]. The mention of "10.0pp" in SEC filings refers to unrelated historical contexts, not the specific event in question [^][^][^][^][^]. Therefore, the primary driver for this prediction market price movement cannot be identified from the available information, and social media was not identified as a driver.
📈 August 26, 2026: 35.0pp spike
Price increased from 64.0% to 99.0%
What happened: The alleged 35.0 percentage point spike in the "Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth in August" prediction market on August 26, 2026, appears to be unfounded, as markets tracking this specific metric do not report such a movement [^][^][^][^][^]. While PepsiCo announced a Mountain Dew x Trolli Mango Pineapple Punch launch on August 24, 2026, to address a 4% beverage volume decline, there is no evidence linking this new product release to a 35.0pp growth spike on the specified date [^][^][^][^][^]. Therefore, no primary driver can be identified for the described price movement as the event itself lacks supporting evidence within the provided research. Social media was irrelevant, as the reported movement did not occur.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves based on the Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth in August. A 'YES' position pays out if the growth percentage is above the contract's specified threshold (e.g., -20%), while a 'NO' position pays out if it is at or below that threshold. Final data is awaited in September 2026, with a maximum payout date of September 6, 2026.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above -12% | $1.00 | $0.75 | 99% |
| Above -16% | $1.00 | $0.65 | 99% |
| Above -8% | $0.85 | $1.00 | 85% |
| Above -20% | $1.00 | $0.18 | 80% |
| Above -4% | $0.45 | $1.00 | 60% |
Market Discussion
There is no publicly disclosed or brand-level point-of-sale (POS) growth figure specifically for Mountain Dew in August 2026 in the provided research [^]. While PepsiCo announced a national launch of a new Mountain Dew Trolli flavor variant on August 24, 2026, aimed at driving trial and addressing a broader 4% decline in North American beverage unit volume during Q2 2026, this does not directly report August POS growth [^]. Industry scanner data through mid-August 2026 showed carbonated soft drinks (CSDs) generally struggling with volume drops [^]. Official Carbon Arc data, which prediction markets like Kalshi will use to resolve on "Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth in August 2026," is expected around September 7, 2026 [^].
5. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
Above -4%PrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality63Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality63Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 91
Above -20%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality66Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality66Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above -16%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (24h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Above -12%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality72Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality72Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above -8%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality68Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality68Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.14 · computed Sep 3, 2026
6. What sales impact can be expected from the late-August launch of 'Mountain Dew x Trolli' on the month's final point-of-sale figures?
| Launch Date | August 24, 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| PepsiCo NA Beverage Volume Decline | 4% [^][^] |
| August Growth Prediction Market | Bearish [^] |
The limited-edition 'Mountain Dew x Trolli' launch will likely have limited August sales impact. The new Mango Pineapple Punch flavor was introduced on August 24, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. Due to this late-month release timing, the product is not expected to significantly influence final point-of-sale figures for August [^][^].
Analysts are watching the launch amid broader beverage volume declines. The new product is being monitored by analysts and investors to determine if it can help mitigate a 4% decline in PepsiCo's North American beverage unit volume [^][^]. However, prediction markets for 'Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth in August' currently reflect a bearish outlook, with the market for growth above -8% experiencing significant repricing [^].
7. What was Mountain Dew's point-of-sale growth in Q2 2026 and August 2025, establishing a baseline for August 2026 performance?
| Mountain Dew POS growth | Not disclosed (PepsiCo does not report SKU-level data) [^] |
|---|---|
| PBNA total unit volume decline (Q2 2026) | 4% [^][^] |
| Broader retail same-store sales increase (August 2025) | 8.3% year-over-year (NRSInsights) [^] |
Specific Mountain Dew point-of-sale growth data is not publicly available. PepsiCo does not disclose specific point-of-sale (POS) growth figures for individual brands such as Mountain Dew, as the company does not report SKU-level revenue metrics [^]. Therefore, precise Mountain Dew point-of-sale growth for Q2 2026 and August 2025 cannot be directly determined from the information available [^]. In Q2 2026, PepsiCo Beverages North America (PBNA) experienced a 4% decline in total unit volume and a 3% decline in carbonated soft-drink volume [^][^].
Certain Mountain Dew varieties demonstrated share gains despite overall PBNA volume declines. These overall PBNA volume declines were reported in prepared management remarks on July 9, 2026 [^]. Despite these broader declines for PBNA, certain Mountain Dew varieties, particularly Mountain Dew Zero Sugar, showed gains in value and volume share within the category during Q2 2026 [^][^]. For August 2025, NRSInsights reported an 8.3% increase year-over-year in same-store sales for the broader retail market [^]. This figure provides a general baseline for retail performance but does not offer specific brand-level metrics for Mountain Dew [^].
8. How has Mountain Dew's market share within the U.S. carbonated soft drink sector compared to competitors like Coca-Cola and Dr Pepper through mid-2026?
| Mountain Dew CSD Market Share | 6% to 7% (through 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| U.S. CSD Market Value | over $58 billion (2026) [^] |
| Dr Pepper CSD Market Share | 7.2% (early 2026) [^] |
Mountain Dew maintains a consistent market share below major competitors. The brand has sustained a stable market share in the U.S. carbonated soft drink (CSD) sector, consistently ranging between 6% and 7% over the last decade and a half through 2026 [^][^]. This share places it below key competitors, with Coca-Cola holding an estimated 19.5% and Dr Pepper at 7.2% market share as of early 2026 [^].
The overall CSD market is growing despite PepsiCo's challenges. In 2026, the broader U.S. CSD market is valued at over $58 billion, experiencing a year-over-year growth of 4.6% [^]. Despite this overall market expansion, PepsiCo, Mountain Dew's parent company, has encountered notable challenges concerning its North American volume [^].
Recent predictions indicate bearish sentiment for PepsiCo's North American volume. In late August 2026, prediction markets reflected strong bearish sentiment regarding PepsiCo's North American volume, with point-of-sale growth for August heavily debated around negative thresholds [^][^]. These broader company-level headwinds create a challenging context for Mountain Dew's otherwise consistent market share.
9. Which specific data report will determine this market's outcome, and what is its official release date in September 2026?
| Market resolution data | August 2026 sales data [^] |
|---|---|
| Market resolution date | September 7, 2026 [^] |
| Underlying data source | PDI Technologies (Skupos) [^] |
A specific prediction market determines the Mountain Dew outcome. This market, officially named "Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth in August" (ID: KXMOUNTAINDEWPOS-26SEP07), will resolve based on the August 2026 sales data [^]. The essential point-of-sale data utilized for such markets is typically provided by networks such as PDI Technologies, through its Skupos service, which delivers daily, UPC-level transaction information specifically from convenience stores [^].
The specific sales data release date is currently unspecified. While the precise release date for the August 2026 sales data has not been detailed in the available information, the market itself is scheduled to close and resolve on September 7, 2026 [^]. Payouts for this particular market are anticipated to be distributed by this date or soon after [^].
10. How does PepsiCo's overall Q2 2026 performance and full-year guidance for its North American beverages segment inform expectations for a core brand like Mountain Dew?
| PBNA Q2 2026 Net Revenue Increase | 7% (driven by pricing and acquisitions) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| PBNA Q2 2026 Organic Unit Volume Decline | 4% [^][^][^][^] |
| Full Year 2026 Organic Revenue Growth Guidance | 2% to 4% [^][^][^] |
PepsiCo's Q2 saw revenue growth despite a volume decline for its North American beverages. PepsiCo Beverages North America (PBNA) reported a 7% increase in net revenue for Q2 2026, primarily driven by pricing strategies and recent acquisitions [^][^][^][^]. However, the segment also experienced a 4% decline in organic unit volume during this period [^][^][^][^]. Given PepsiCo's policy of not reporting brand-level financial data, such as for Mountain Dew, these broader segment trends indicate cautious expectations for individual brand performance [^][^].
Full-year guidance remains positive, with innovation targeting volume recovery. For the full year 2026, PepsiCo executives have maintained their organic revenue growth guidance at 2% to 4%, anticipating that the North American business will gradually improve in the second half, pushing results towards the higher end of the guidance [^][^][^]. The Mountain Dew x Trolli Mango Pineapple Punch, launched late in August 2026, serves as a strategic innovation to address volume declines in the beverage segment [^][^]. Its late-month timing would limit its immediate impact on August point-of-sale data, however. As PepsiCo does not provide brand-level revenue or unit volume figures, market expectations remain cautious, with analysts monitoring whether such limited-time innovations can effectively drive volume improvement or if growth will continue to rely on price and mix shifts [^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
A prediction market tracks August 2026 Point of Sale (POS) growth for Mountain Dew, specifically evaluating if it exceeds -8%, with a closing date of September 7, 2026 [^] [^] [^] . As of late August 2026, PepsiCo faces a 4% decline in North American beverage volume [^]. To address this, the company launched the limited-edition Mountain Dew x Trolli Mango Pineapple Punch in late August 2026 [^].
PepsiCo's fiscal 2026 financial outlook, reaffirmed in February 2026, targets 2-4% organic revenue growth for the full year, with expectations to achieve the higher end of this range during the second half of 2026 [^] [^] [^] . This follows an increase in net revenue to $43.62 billion for the first six months of 2026, up from $40.65 billion in the same period of 2025 [^][^]. The company also planned to increase in-store points of presence during the first half of 2026 to enhance commercial performance and consumer affordability [^].
Broader August 2026 beverage industry trends indicate a consumer shift towards experiential and functional drinks, alongside innovative limited-time offers designed to drive restaurant traffic and retail engagement, particularly among Gen Z and millennial demographics [^] [^] [^] . The company's official third-quarter 2026 earnings results, covering the period through September 5, 2026, are scheduled for release on October 8, 2026 [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 14, 2026
- Closes: September 07, 2026
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: A prediction market tracks August 2026 Point of Sale (POS) growth for Mountain Dew, specifically evaluating if it exceeds -8%, with a closing date of September 7, 2026 [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: As of late August 2026, PepsiCo faces a 4% decline in North American beverage volume [^] .
- Trigger: To address this, the company launched the limited-edition Mountain Dew x Trolli Mango Pineapple Punch in late August 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: PepsiCo's fiscal 2026 financial outlook, reaffirmed in February 2026, targets 2-4% organic revenue growth for the full year, with expectations to achieve the higher end of this range during the second half of 2026 [^] [^] [^] .
14. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
