Short Answer

September 2026 Amazon credit card spend is expected to register above 96, with the market pricing robust year-over-year growth that appears to exceed Q3 net sales guidance despite an August 2026 payment policy change (99.0%).

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The sharp repricing in the Amazon September credit card spend market on October 4 was driven by expectations of a strong promotional cycle. The 87-point spike in the contract for growth "Above 112" (12% YoY) reflected the market pricing in the effects of Amazon's Labor Day promotions and the early launch of Prime/Big Deal Days deals during the last week of September.
Market pricing implies high conviction in a specific range of outcomes. Contracts for 12% and 16% year-over-year growth (the 112 and 116 levels) traded near 98-100%, while the contract for 20% growth (the 120 level) was priced at only 8%. This suggests the market expects the promotional cycle to deliver a significant boost but sees a ceiling on the upside. The market, which settles based on Carbon Arc's U.S. aggregated card panel data, traded over 32,000 contracts.
  • Strong bullish sentiment for September 2026 Amazon spend reflects robust growth.
  • Market's implied 16-20% spend growth exceeds Amazon's 9-12% Q3 revenue guidance.

Current Context

Prediction markets indicate significant year-over-year growth in Amazon credit card spend. As of October 5, 2026, the Kalshi market for Amazon Credit Card Spend in September 2026 is set to settle on October 7, 2026. This market uses Carbon Arc's U.S. aggregated credit/debit-card panel, with the index representing year-over-year change, where 100 is unchanged [1][2][3]. Pricing implies a strong upside outcome: thresholds up to 112 were priced near 100% YES, 116 at 98%-99%, while 120 was approximately 8% and 128 about 9% [1][4][5]. The implied market consensus for the September spend index is around 116-120 [1][4][5]. Market activity was material, with the event page showing roughly $71K in 24-hour volume and $68K in open interest. The >116 contract page recorded about $25.1K in 24-hour volume, $18.8K in open interest, and recent $1K-$2K YES orders near 98-99 cents [1][4].
Card spend data requires careful interpretation amid Amazon's broader financial context. A key interpretive caveat is sensitivity to measurement and policy changes [3]. An August 2026 Amazon policy reportedly shifted seller advertising payments from credit card billing to automatic account deductions, which could depress reported card-spend volume [3]. Therefore, September's outcome should be understood as a panel-based spending index rather than Amazon-reported revenue or a GAAP financial line [3]. Amazon's latest disclosed operating backdrop is strong but cash-intensive: Q2 FY2026 net sales were about $200.6B, operating income $27.5B, AWS growth 37%, and operating margin 13.7% [6][7][8]. Management guided Q3 revenue to $197B-$202B and operating income to $22.5B-$26.5B, while 2026 capital expenditure guidance rose toward $220B and trailing free cash flow was negative $7.6B [6][7][9][8]. The next major company date is Amazon's Q3 2026 earnings call on October 29, 2026, which covers the quarter ending September 30; this is separate from the October 7 settlement date for the credit-card-spend prediction market [9]. Expert commentary is broadly constructive on Amazon's operating growth, particularly in AWS, advertising, and contracted AI demand, but flags AI infrastructure spending and negative free cash flow as central risks [9][8][10]. Previews indicate Q3 earnings may be distorted by investment gains and Prime Day timing [9].
Amazon's public disclosures do not provide specific credit card spend metrics. No specific "Amazon credit card spend in September 2026" figure is available in the retrieved data, as Amazon does not publicly report such a standalone metric [11][12]. The retrieved financial statements, press releases, or the Q2 2026 earnings call transcript do not contain a September 2026 card-spend figure [11][12]. Amazon's most recent reported period, Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026), details revenue, cash flow, and balance-sheet items but not monthly credit card spend [11][12]. Q2 2026 metrics included a market cap of $2,563.59B, enterprise value of $2,708.60B, and return on equity of 11.36% [11][12]. Rising average receivables of $81.81B in Q2 2026 (up 14.23% from Q1 2026) are the closest available proxy for consumer payment activity, though these are not a credit card spend metric [11][12]. During the Q2 2026 earnings call, management expressed enthusiasm for growth in everyday essentials and perishables in the Stores business, attributing it to faster delivery and selection, but the transcript contains no explicit discussion of credit card spend, payment mix, or wallet-share metrics tied to card spending [11][12]. Furthermore, no press releases, partnership announcements, or program updates on Amazon's credit card programs could be retrieved for the April–October 2026 window, meaning no September 2026 card-program developments can be confirmed [11][12]. September 2026 card-spend data would typically appear in bank partner disclosures or third-party spend panels, not Amazon's own reporting [11][12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Amazon Credit Card Spend in September — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  2. 2Amazon Credit Card Spend in Septemberkalshi.com
  3. 3Amazon Credit Card Spend in September - Cotes Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  4. 4Will Amazon Credit Card Spend for September 2026 be abo… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  5. 5Will Amazon Credit Card Spend for September 2026 be above 128? — Kalshi Odds & Price | PredEdgeprededge.com
  6. 6Amazon COM Q2 FY2026 Earnings: Revenue $200.61B, EPS $5.75 diluted — Amazon's AWS Grew 37%. AI Capex Ate the Cash Flow.sagenoodle.com
  7. 7Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) — The Cost of Capacity | Farstar Capitalfarstarcap.com
  8. 8Financial analysis of Amazon, FY2025 and the first half of 2026sec-api.io
  9. 9[AMZN] Amazon: Q3 2026 earnings preview, can AWS growth outrun AI capex? | drillrdrillr.ai
  10. 10Prediction: The Next Phase of Amazon’s Growth Could Be Its Most Profitable Yet - 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
  11. 11AMZN_Q22026, Page: 8Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  12. 12AMZN_Q22026, Page: 9Octagon Agentoctagonai.co

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above 120

📉 October 05, 2026: 55.0pp drop

Price decreased from 60.0% to 5.0%

What happened: The provided research does not identify any specific social media activity or traditional news announcement as the primary driver for the 55.0 percentage point drop in the "Above 120" outcome for Amazon's September credit card spend on October 5, 2026 [1]. While Amazon's Prime Big Deal Days began on October 3, this event is tied to October spending and is explicitly stated not to directly explain the September index movement [2]. The market's current pricing signals an expectation that September's spend index will likely be in the 116–120 range, leading to the "Above 120" outcome now being priced at only 8% [1]. Based on the available information, social media was irrelevant as a driver for this price movement.

Outcome: Above 112

📈 October 04, 2026: 90.0pp spike

Price increased from 9.0% to 99.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price movement for "Above 112" appears to be the expectation of robust Amazon credit card spend in September 2026, fueled by an aggressive promotional cycle [3][4]. Labor Day promotions and the early launch of Prime/Big Deal Days deals by September 28–29 likely contributed to this anticipation of elevated year-over-year spend [3][4]. No specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives were identified as contributing to this price surge. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this particular price movement.

Outcome: Above 108

📈 October 03, 2026: 63.0pp spike

Price increased from 14.0% to 77.0%

What happened: No credible social media activity or traditional news was identified as the primary driver for the 63.0 percentage point spike in the "Amazon Credit Card Spend in September" market on October 3, 2026 [5][6][7][8][9][10]. The underlying metric is a third-party panel estimate, not an Amazon-reported financial figure [11][5][6][7][8][9][10]. While Amazon's "Prime Big Deal Days," announced in late September, likely contributed to elevated September credit card spend, this was a scheduled promotion rather than a discrete October 3 catalyst for the market's sudden movement [5][6][7][8][9][10]. Therefore, social media activity, consisting of routine deal discussions, was mostly noise or irrelevant to this specific price spike [5][6][7][8][9][10].

📈 October 02, 2026: 38.0pp spike

Price increased from 7.0% to 45.0%

What happened: While the exact 38.0 percentage point price spike on October 2, 2026, is not explicitly confirmed by the provided sources, the market's strong implied probability for "Above 108" and "Above 116" by October 5, 2026, was likely influenced by Amazon's early October promotional activity for Big Deal Days, with deals reported live by September 29 [3]. No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives was identified in the available information. Therefore, social media was irrelevant in causing this particular market movement.

📉 October 01, 2026: 10.0pp drop

Price decreased from 14.0% to 4.0%

What happened: The provided research does not establish a verified 10.0 percentage-point drop on October 1, 2026, for the "Amazon Credit Card Spend in September" market for the "Above 108" outcome [1][3]. Instead, observable data on October 5, 2026, indicate that the "Above 108" threshold experienced an 11.0 percentage-point increase in the preceding 24 hours [1][3]. Without evidence of the described price movement, it is not possible to identify a primary driver, including social media activity [1][3]. Social media activity is therefore irrelevant to the described non-existent drop.
Sources (11)
  1. 1Amazon Credit Card Spend in September — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  2. 2Amazon launches early Prime Day deals ahead of event | Adalyticaadalytica.com
  3. 3Will Amazon Credit Card Spend for September 2026 be above 116? — Kalshi Odds & Price | PredEdgeprededge.com
  4. 4Prime Big Deal Days Oct 6-7: Dates, Deals and Rivalsshopappy.com
  5. 5www.investopedia.comOctagon Agentinvestopedia.com
  6. 6www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  7. 7www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  8. 8www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
  9. 9www.reuters.comOctagon Agentreuters.com
  10. 10www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  11. 11Amazon (AMZN) | Hedgebook | Blankettryblanket.app

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market concerns the "Amazon Credit Card Spend in September." A "YES" contract resolves if the final reported Amazon Credit Card Spend for September is above the specific dollar threshold for that contract. Conversely, a "NO" contract resolves if the final spend is at or below that threshold. Resolution will occur based on final data expected in October 2026, with a settlement date listed as October 6, 2026.

Market Discussion

Market pricing as of October 5, 2026, strongly favored robust year-over-year growth for the Amazon September 2026 credit/debit-card-spend index, with the "Above 116" threshold showing a 98% implied probability, suggesting a market-centered estimate between 116 and 120 [1]. This market measures an external panel estimate, not an Amazon-reported KPI, though Amazon's Q2 2026 financials (ended June 30, 2026) announced significant growth in worldwide net sales and operating income [2]. Social commentary in late August and early September discussed Amazon's billing policy changes for some advertisers, moving from credit card payments to balance deductions, but this primarily concerns seller advertising payments rather than the consumer spend index [3].

Sources (3)
  1. 1Amazon Credit Card Spend in September — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  2. 2Amazon Credit Card Spend in September - Kalshi noteringen | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3EP376: Amazon's Credit Card Policy Change: What It Costs Sellers in Rewardsvoltagedm.substack.com

5. How does the market's implied 16-20% YoY growth in Amazon spend for September 2026 compare with alternative high-frequency data from panels like Facteus or Consumer Edge for the same period?

Market implied Amazon spend growth Sep 202616-20% year-over-year (Kalshi-linked market, as of Oct 5, 2026) [1][2][3]
Facteus Amazon spend growth Sep 202516.7% year-over-year (current through Jan 7, 2026) [4]
Market likelihood Sep 2026 index >116~98% (Kalshi-linked market, as of Oct 5, 2026) [1]
The market predicts significant Amazon spend growth for September 2026. Implied Amazon spend growth for September 2026 is projected to be between 16-20% year-over-year. This projection, derived from a prediction market as of October 5, 2026, suggests a Carbon Arc September 2026 Amazon credit/debit-card-spend index of approximately 116–120, where 100 indicates flat growth [1][2][3]. This anticipated market range is broadly consistent with Facteus's most recent directly comparable Amazon observation, which reported 16.7% spend growth for September 2025 [4][5][6].
The September 2026 market projection lacks alternative data validation currently. This market range for September 2026 is not yet cross-validated by a published September 2026 reading from either Facteus or Consumer Edge [4][5][6]. While Facteus historical data for September 2025 showed Amazon transaction growth of 17.40%, and Consumer Edge has described 2026 card-panel results for earlier periods, public sources do not disclose an Amazon-specific September 2026 year-over-year spend figure from these providers [4][5][6]. For instance, the >116 contract for September 2026 held approximately 98% likelihood in the prediction market, while the >120 contract was about 8% likely [1]. Therefore, the market should currently be treated as a leading signal rather than a corroborated alternative-data consensus [4][5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Will Amazon Credit Card Spend for September 2026 be abo… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  2. 2Amazon Credit Card Spend in September — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  3. 3Amazon Credit Card Spend in September — Kalshi Odds & Markets | PredEdgeprededge.com
  4. 4Recent Transaction Data for AMAZONfacteus.com
  5. 5Prime Day Isn’t a Cross-Shop Event, Even as Amazon Shoppers Buy More at Walmart and Target | Consumer Edgeconsumeredge.com
  6. 6TikTok Shop Online Retail Spend Hits 2% | Consumer Edgeconsumeredge.com

6. What is the estimated quantitative impact of Amazon's August 2026 seller advertising payment policy change on the final September 2026 Carbon Arc credit card spend index?

Estimated Index Impact0 to -1 index point (plausible downside 0 to -2 points) [1][2][3][4]
Estimated Percentage Impact0% to -1% versus counterfactual [1][2][3][4]
Market Implied September Index116–120 range [3][5]
Amazon's August policy change for seller advertising payments is expected to have a negligible impact. This policy, implemented in August 2026, transitioned affected sellers from credit card billing for advertising payments to either account-balance deduction or Pay by Invoice. Sellers who did not specify a preference were automatically defaulted to account-balance deduction and received $2,500 in monthly click credits for a period of five months [1][2]. The estimated quantitative impact of this policy on the final September 2026 Carbon Arc credit card spend index is negligible to low single digits, specifically between 0 and -1 index point. There is a plausible downside range of 0 to -2 points, which represents approximately 0% to -1% when compared to the counterfactual scenario [1][2][3][4].
The estimated impact is analytical, not a direct causal measurement. This assessment is derived from analysis rather than direct causal measurement [1][2][3][4]. The policy change targets only a small subset of sellers and primarily alters the payment method for advertising, rather than necessarily eliminating advertising purchases altogether [1][2]. The Carbon Arc index specifically measures year-over-year U.S. credit and debit card transactions [4][6]. As of early October 2026, prediction markets strongly indicate a September index value between 116 and 120, suggesting robust year-over-year growth that is not indicative of a policy-driven decline [3][5]. A more substantial effect on the index would necessitate a significant proportion of affected sellers reducing their advertising spend or purchases, for which no supporting evidence is currently provided [1][2].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Amazon Ads delays advertiser payment overhaul to August...ppc.land
  2. 2Credit Card Payment Option for Ads Wont be Vaild in Augustsellercentral.amazon.com
  3. 3Amazon Credit Card Spend in September — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  4. 4Amazon Credit Card Spend in September - Probabilidades na Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  5. 5Will Amazon Credit Card Spend for September 2026 be abo… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  6. 6Amazon Credit Card Spend in September - Kalshi noteringen | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

7. How does the YoY consumer spending growth implied for Amazon in September 2026 compare to that of major retail competitors like Walmart and Target during the same back-to-school season?

Amazon Sept 2026 YoY Growth+16% to +20% (Carbon Arc metric 116-120) [1][2][3]
Walmart Sept 2026 YoY Growth+4% to +6% (limited probability above +9%) [4][5]
Consumers planning online marketplace use (2026 Back-to-School)67% (PwC May 2026 survey) [6]
Amazon demonstrated significantly stronger consumer spending growth than Walmart in September 2026. Amazon's market-implied year-over-year growth for the month was approximately +16% to +20%, corresponding to a Carbon Arc metric result of roughly 116–120 [1][2][3]. Conversely, Walmart's comparable September market indicated materially lower growth, estimated at approximately +4% to +6% year-over-year, with a limited probability above +9% [4][5]. This translates to Amazon's implied September 2026 year-over-year consumer spending growth being about 10–12 percentage points higher than Walmart's [1][4][5].
Comparable year-over-year spending estimates for Target were not available in market listings. A like-for-like year-over-year spending estimate for Target is not supported by the available evidence, as market listings included Target Foot Traffic but not a comparable credit-card-spend market [7][8]. The 2026 back-to-school season overall presented a favorable environment for online marketplaces, with 67% of consumers indicating plans to use major online marketplaces, according to a May 2026 PwC survey of 2,080 U.S. adults [6].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Amazon Credit Card Spend in September — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  2. 2Will Amazon Credit Card Spend for September 2026 be abo… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  3. 3Will Amazon Credit Card Spend for September 2026 be abo… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  4. 4Will Walmart Credit Card Spend for September 2026 be ab… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  5. 5Will Walmart Credit Card Spend for September 2026 be ab… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  6. 6US Consumer Poll on Back to School Spendingpwc.com
  7. 7Markets & Companies Prediction Markets — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  8. 8Financials Prediction Markets — Odds & Trends | PredictionHeropredictionhero.com

8. What are the key methodological differences between Carbon Arc's credit card panel and the U.S. Census Bureau's retail e-commerce sales data, and how might this affect the September 2026 reading?

Carbon Arc panel base year2016 [1][2][3]
Census firms surveyedApproximately 10,800 [4][5][6]
Census e-commerce sales by responding firmsRoughly 68% [4][5][6]
Carbon Arc's credit card panel and U.S. Census Bureau's e-commerce data utilize distinct methodologies, coverage, and units of observation, meaning they are not expected to align even with similar trends [1][4][5]. The prediction market resolution for the September 2026 reading specifically depends on the first Carbon Arc-reported year-over-year index, not a Census estimate [7][8].
Carbon Arc's U.S. card measure aggregates U.S. credit and debit card outflows, distinguishing between online and physical transactions [1]. Its panel processing refines the panel for stability and representation, removes inactive participants, excludes anomalous behavior, controls unusual transactions, and assigns geography based on the user's spending location; the panel's base year is 2016 [1][2][3]. This measure reflects sampled payment activity attributed to Amazon or its representations, offering insight into consumer payment behavior rather than Amazon's total online merchandise sales or the broader Census e-commerce total [1][4][5].
In contrast, Census retail e-commerce sales are a probability-sample survey estimate derived from approximately 10,800 weighted and benchmarked retail firms, not a card-transaction panel [4][5][6]. The Census frame specifically excludes online travel, financial brokers/dealers, and ticket agencies, and as of April 2025, nonemployers are no longer included in the time series [4][5][6]. E-commerce estimates are adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday/trading-day effects but do not account for price changes [9][10][11]. For the September 2026 Carbon Arc reading, the primary interpretation risk is a denominator mismatch, as the Census's seasonally and holiday-adjusted quarterly numbers are unsuitable as a direct September benchmark [7][1][4][5]. Variations in Carbon Arc results could stem from factors such as Amazon's market share gains, increased card usage, changes in transaction mix or ticket size, shifts in panel composition, payment-method substitution, or incomplete panel capture [7][1][4][5].
Sources (11)
  1. 1US Detailed Card Logic | Welcome to Carbon Arc Docsdocs.carbonarc.ai
  2. 2Facteus Core Panel | Welcome to Carbon Arc Docsdocs.carbonarc.ai
  3. 3Credit Card Prism Frameworks | Welcome to Carbon Arc Docsdocs.carbonarc.ai
  4. 4E-Commerce Methodologycensus.gov
  5. 5Monthly Retail Trade - Quarterly E-Commerce Report Methodologycensus.gov
  6. 6Monthly Retail Trade - About the Monthly Retail Trade Surveycensus.gov
  7. 7Amazon Credit Card Spend in September - Probabilidades na Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  8. 8Amazon Credit Card Spend in September - Kalshi noteringen | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  9. 9Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales Report - U.S. Census Bureaucensus.gov
  10. 10[PDF] QUARTERLY RETAIL E-COMMERCE SALES 2nd QUARTER...census.gov
  11. 11Monthly Retail Trade - Sales Report - U.S. Census Bureaucensus.gov

9. How consistent is the market's expectation of 16-20% YoY credit card spend growth in September with Amazon's official Q3 2026 revenue guidance of $197B-$202B?

Expected September credit card spend growth16-20% YoY [1]
Amazon Q3 2026 Net Sales Guidance$197B-$202B [1]
Implied YoY revenue growth from Q3 guidance9%-12% [1]
Market expectations for credit card spend are directionally inconsistent with Amazon's Q3 guidance. Market expectations for 16-20% year-over-year growth in credit card spend for September are directionally inconsistent with Amazon's official Q3 2026 net sales guidance of $197B-$202B [1]. This projected spend growth significantly exceeds the 9%-12% year-over-year revenue growth implied by Amazon's Q3 guidance, showing an approximate 4-11 percentage point difference [1].
Prediction market activity indicates strong interest in higher spend thresholds. The September Amazon Credit Card Spend prediction market uses a Carbon Arc index, where an index of 100 indicates flat year-over-year spend; consequently, 16%-20% growth translates to an index of 116-120 [2]. Active market listings reflect substantial activity for September 2026 Amazon credit card spend thresholds above 116 and above 120, though a definitive consensus point estimate for the full 16%-20% range is not explicitly established [3].
Scope differences explain the inconsistency, not a direct contradiction. This inconsistency does not, however, represent a direct contradiction because of differing scopes in the data [1]. Amazon's total revenue encompasses diverse business segments such as AWS, advertising, and subscriptions, whereas the prediction market measures an aggregated U.S. credit/debit-card transaction panel [1]. Variations in scope, business mix, geographic focus, and timing can lead to significantly different reported growth rates between these two measures [1].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlightsfinance.yahoo.com
  2. 2Amazon Credit Card Spend in September - Kalshi noteringen | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3Will Amazon Credit Card Spend for September 2026 be abo… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The Kalshi event, measuring Carbon Arc's September 2026 U.S. Amazon credit/debit-card-spend index versus September 2025, resolves on October 7, 2026, using Carbon Arc's first reported value [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. As of October 5, 2026, prediction-market pricing indicated strong bullish sentiment for year-over-year growth: outcomes above 96, 100, 102, 104, 108, 110, and 112 were at roughly 98–100% implied probability [3][6][8]. The market's apparent central range is approximately 113–120; Above 116 was priced at 98%, while Above 120 was shown near 8% [3][6]. This implies strong confidence in double-digit growth but low confidence in growth above roughly 20% [3][6]. Amazon's official Q2 release guided Q3 2026 net sales to $197.0–$202.0 billion, an increase of 9–12% year over year, and operating income to $22.5–$26.5 billion, compared to $17.4 billion in Q3 2025 [9]. Management also stated that excluding Prime Day effects, growth would be nearly 400 basis points higher [9].
Principal bullish catalysts include sustained AWS/AI demand, retail and advertising growth, and stronger-than-guided consumer spending [9][10][11]. Conversely, principal bearish catalysts are approximately $220 billion of 2026 capital expenditure, margin pressure from AI infrastructure and logistics investment, foreign exchange fluctuations, tariffs, inflation, interest rates, and potentially weaker consumer demand [9][10][11]. A Q4 operating-income outlook that falls below the Q3 range would serve as a bearish signal [10][11].
Beyond the October 7, 2026 credit-card-spend market settlement, Amazon's Q3 results are expected around October 29, 2026, though the exact date has not been formally confirmed by Amazon [9][12][10][11]. October 30 is the first likely post-earnings trading session [10][11]. The Q3 earnings read-through will focus on AWS growth and backlog/demand, retail operating margins, advertising performance, Q4 holiday guidance, and whether capital expenditure escalates beyond approximately $220 billion [10][11].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: October 14, 2026
  • Closes: October 07, 2026
Sources (12)
  1. 1Amazon Credit Card Spend in Septemberkalshi.com
  2. 2Amazon Credit Card Spend in September | Prediction Marketscoinbase.com
  3. 3Amazon Credit Card Spend in September — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  4. 4Will Amazon Credit Card Spend for September 2026 be above 100? — Kalshi Odds & Price | PredEdgeprededge.com
  5. 5Will Amazon Credit Card Spend for September 2026 be above 102? | Paritypredictparity.com
  6. 6Will Amazon Credit Card Spend for September 2026 be abo… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  7. 7Amazon Credit Card Spend in September - Cotes Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  8. 8Will Amazon Credit Card Spend for September 2026 be above 128? — Kalshi Odds & Price | PredEdgeprededge.com
  9. 9Amazon.com, Inc. - Amazon.com Announces Second Quarter Resultsir.aboutamazon.com
  10. 10The Dates That Matter Most For Amazon Stock | Trefistrefis.com
  11. 11[AMZN] Amazon: Q3 2026 earnings preview, can AWS growth outrun AI capex? | drillrdrillr.ai
  12. 12AMZN Earnings October 2026: Date, Time & What to Expect | Finance Calendarfinancecalendar.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 11 markets in this series

Outcomes: 8 resolved YES, 3 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXAMZNCC-26SEP07-T112: NO (Sep 05, 2026)
  • KXAMZNCC-26SEP07-T111: NO (Sep 05, 2026)
  • KXAMZNCC-26SEP07-T110: NO (Sep 05, 2026)
  • KXAMZNCC-26SEP07-T109: YES (Sep 05, 2026)
  • KXAMZNCC-26SEP07-T108: YES (Sep 05, 2026)