Burger King Foot Traffic in September
Short Answer
Consensus does not expect Burger King's September foot traffic to exceed an index of 99.5, despite the brand's Q2 2026 overall foot traffic growing 0.7% year-over-year to an index of 100.7; the market prices this outcome at 13.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
Reports of strong comparable sales growth for Burger King in the first half of 2026 do not appear to be reflected in this market's pricing. The company posted U.S. comparable sales growth of 8.5% in Q2 2026, an acceleration from 5.8% in Q1. Global comparable sales also rose 8.6% in the second quarter. Despite this positive fundamental data, the contract is priced for a low probability that September foot traffic will meet the resolution threshold.
The sharp price fluctuations, including a move from 10% to 90% and back to 9%, are not explained by any specific developments in the provided context. The market's extremely low trading volume, with only 47 contracts traded in total, indicates these price levels are a function of illiquidity. In such a thinly traded environment, price action is not a reliable indicator of broad market reaction to fundamental news.
- Foot traffic above 94.5 is highly probable based on Q2 2026 outperformance.
- Traffic above 99.5 and 100 is likely from 0.7% year-over-year Q2 growth.
- A 1.7% rise in average Q2 visits supports traffic above 101.5.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 102.5 | 9.0% | 8.5% | Q2 2026 average visits per location increased by 1.7% year-over-year, suggesting foot traffic may reach above 102.5. |
| Above 100 | 10.0% | 10.7% | Burger King's Q2 2026 foot traffic grew 0.7% year-over-year, reaching an index of 100.7. |
| Above 94.5 | 99.0% | 98.9% | Burger King demonstrated year-over-year foot traffic growth and robust sales in Q2 2026. |
| Above 99.5 | 13.0% | 12.0% | Burger King's Q2 2026 foot traffic grew 0.7% year-over-year, reaching an index of 100.7. |
| Above 101.5 | 6.0% | 9.0% | Burger King's Q2 2026 average visits per location grew 1.7% year-over-year to an index of 101.7. |
Current Context
Burger King demonstrated strong comparable sales growth in H1 2026. Burger King U.S. comparable sales increased 8.5% in Q2 2026, following a 5.8% increase in Q1 [1][2][3]. Global comparable sales rose 8.6% in Q2, with company commentary calling Burger King a standout performer [1][4]. Placer.ai data indicates average visits per Burger King location increased 1.7% year over year in Q2 2026, with same-store visits positive from February through May before a 0.2% decline in June [5]. For the six months ended June 30, 2026, the Burger King segment reported $2.134 billion in total revenue, up from $1.987 billion in the prior-year period. Q2 segment revenue reached $1.137 billion versus $1.083 billion a year earlier [6][7]. RBI's Q2 2026 consolidated system-wide sales totaled $12.702 billion, with revenue of $2.520 billion and net income of $665 million [1][8]. RBI remains on track for 8% organic adjusted operating-income growth in 2026 [1]. As of June 30, 2026, the global Burger King system comprised 19,933 restaurants, with over 95% franchised [9].
Operational improvements and strategic initiatives drive recent performance. Catalysts include upgrades to Whopper and nuggets, value offerings such as $5 Duos and $7 Trios, service elevation programs, remodels, and double-drive-thru conversions [10][11]. QSR reporting notes sales uplifts averaging 11.9% for full remodels, 26% for scrape-and-rebuilds, and 16.8% for double-drive-thru conversions [10]. The September prediction market utilizes Carbon Arc mobile-location data, comparing September 2026 traffic to September 2025, normalized for various factors [12][13]. On September 10, the market's "Above 102.5" quote at 99% implied an expectation of at least 2.5% year-over-year traffic growth, which is a market probability and not an observed result [13]. The market was set to resolve on October 8, 2026, based on the first reported Carbon Arc value, with later corrections not affecting settlement [14][13]. Management's medium-term framework (2024–2028) targets at least 3% comparable-sales growth and 8% organic adjusted operating-income growth on average [4][15].
Downside risks temper an otherwise positive September traffic outlook. Record beef costs are a principal downside risk, potentially reducing the flow-through of sales growth to franchisee profitability [11]. Consumer value sensitivity and broader QSR traffic weakness could also pressure September performance [11][5]. Public SEC filings do not provide a September 2026 Burger King foot-traffic count [4][3]. Comparable sales, defined by RBI for restaurants open at least 13 months, serve as the closest authoritative public proxy for traffic, not a direct measure [4][3]. S&P Global Market Intelligence’s 2026 restaurant outlook suggests consumer demand is more selective, with labor and food costs continuing to affect earnings, supporting a positive but cautious traffic outlook [16]. Based on available data, Burger King traffic for September 2026 is more likely stable to positive year over year than materially negative, with comparable sales likely remaining positive [4][3][16]. Confidence in this assessment is medium, given the absence of direct September traffic data and a live prediction-market quote [4][3][16].
Sources (16)
- 1Restaurant Brands International Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsprnewswire.com
- 2Restaurant Brands International (QSR) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 3Documentsec.gov
- 4Documentsec.gov
- 5Why RBI Weathered Q2 2026 Better Than Most QSR Chains – Placer.ai Blogplacer.ai
- 6https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1618756/000161875626000045/R45.htmsec.gov
- 7https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1618756/000161875626000045/R14.htmsec.gov
- 8Restaurant Brands Q2 2026 net income hits $665M | QSR 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
- 9https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1618756/000161875626000045/R11.htmsec.gov
- 10Can Burger King Sustain Momentum? It Starts with What's Still Left to Do - QSR Magazineqsrmagazine.com
- 11Burger King is Beating its Category—By A Lot - QSR Magazineqsrmagazine.com
- 12Burger King Foot Traffic in September | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
- 13Burger King Foot Traffic in September - Kalshi Quoten | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 14Burger King Foot Traffic in September Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 15Documentsec.gov
- 16US restaurant industry 2026 expectations breakdownspglobal.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 September 21, 2026: 81.0pp drop
Price decreased from 90.0% to 9.0%
Outcome: Above 102.5
What happened: The provided research does not identify a specific primary driver for the 81.0 percentage point drop in the "Burger King Foot Traffic in September" market on September 21, 2026. No social media posts from key figures, viral narratives, traditional news, or official announcements coinciding with this significant price movement are verified for that specific date [1][2][3][4]. While Burger King President Tom Curtis's social media engagement previously boosted traffic in March 2026, no similar activity explaining a sharp decline in September 2026 was found [5][6]. Based on the available information, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver for this particular market movement.
📈 September 10, 2026: 89.0pp spike
Price increased from 10.0% to 99.0%
Outcome: Above 102.5
What happened: The 89.0 percentage point spike in the "Burger King Foot Traffic in September" prediction market on September 10, 2026, appears to reflect heightened market confidence in the brand's ongoing momentum [1]. This confidence likely stemmed from Burger King's strong Q2 2026 performance, announced on August 6, 2026, which included 8.5% U.S. same-store sales growth and 1.7% year-over-year average visits per location, leading to an expectation that September foot traffic would exceed 102.5 (2.5% YoY growth) [7][3][8][9]. While brand-level catalysts such as remodels and value offers contributed to the positive sentiment, no specific social media activity or post was found to directly cause or coincide with this sharp market movement [7][3][8][10][11]. Social media was mostly noise or irrelevant as a primary driver.
Sources (11)
- 1Burger King Foot Traffic in September - Kalshi Quoten | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 2https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1618756/000161875626000045/R45.htmsec.gov
- 3Can Burger King Sustain Momentum? It Starts with What's Still Left to Do - QSR Magazineqsrmagazine.com
- 4Burger King Dragon Ball Super Menu Launches Sept. 1 — Food & Beverage Magazinefb101.com
- 5Burger King's 7.4% Traffic Surge: Tom Curtis Strategy | QSR Proqsr.pro
- 6How Burger King is beating McDonald’s with revamped Whopper after CEO’s burger bite blundernypost.com
- 7Why RBI Weathered Q2 2026 Better Than Most QSR Chains – Placer.ai Blogplacer.ai
- 8Burger King is Beating its Category—By A Lot - QSR Magazineqsrmagazine.com
- 9Documentsec.gov
- 10McDonald's Vs. Burger King Owner Restaurant Brands International: Understand This as McDonald's Sales Growth Slows - 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
- 11Burger King (@burgerking) Instagram Stats, Analytics, Net Worth and Earnings – HypeAuditorhypeauditor.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if the average Burger King foot traffic in September 2026 is strictly above the specified threshold, and NO if it is at or below the threshold. Foot traffic data is counted for the entire month of September 2026, with maximum payout expected by October 7, 2026.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 94.5 | $0.85 | $0.16 | 99% |
| Above 97 | $0.63 | $0.69 | 49% |
| Above 99.5 | $0.19 | $0.92 | 13% |
| Above 100 | $0.11 | $0.94 | 10% |
| Above 102.5 | $0.02 | $0.99 | 9% |
| Above 101.5 | $0.04 | $0.97 | 6% |
| Above 100.5 | $0.06 | $0.95 | 0% |
| Above 95.5 | $0.75 | $0.33 | 0% |
| Above 96.5 | $0.73 | $0.51 | 0% |
| Above 97.5 | $0.50 | $0.72 | 0% |
| Above 98 | $0.42 | $0.80 | 0% |
| Above 98.5 | $0.32 | $0.86 | 0% |
| Above 99 | $0.24 | $0.91 | 0% |
Market Discussion
As of September 22, 2026, the September foot traffic outcome is not yet known, but the bullish case for the market is supported by Burger King U.S. comparable-sales growth of 5.8% in Q1 2026 and 8.5% in Q2 2026, driven by initiatives like the Whopper rollout and value offers [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. However, this positive momentum is tempered by the risk that sales growth may be check-driven rather than transaction-driven, historical evidence of sales-traffic divergence, unit declines, and qualitative concerns about service and cleanliness [8][9][10][11][12]. The market resolves by October 8, 2026, based on a year-over-year normalized mobile-location traffic index [13][14][15].
Sources (15)
- 1Why RBI Weathered Q2 2026 Better Than Most QSR Chains – Placer.ai Blogplacer.ai
- 2Burger King U.S. Same-Store Sales Rise 8.5% - WSJwsj.com
- 3Can Burger King Sustain Momentum? It Starts with What's Still Left to Do - QSR Magazineqsrmagazine.com
- 4Burger King is Beating its Category—By A Lot - QSR Magazineqsrmagazine.com
- 5Burger King And BarkleyOKRP Dethrone The King And Unlock Brand Loveforbes.com
- 6Documentsec.gov
- 7Documentsec.gov
- 8Burger King's US Sales Jumped 8.5%. The Restaurants RBI Owns Made a 3% Margin.businessmodelanalyst.com
- 9Burger King's comeback, as told by the commentssignal.getsiftsy.com
- 10Documentsec.gov
- 11Documentsec.gov
- 12Documentsec.gov
- 13Burger King Foot Traffic in September Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 14Burger King Foot Traffic in September - Kalshi Quoten | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 15Burger King Foot Traffic in September - Cotes Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
5. Trust Index
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score77Good
Market integrity is low (64), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score46High Risk
Trust score71Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What operational catalysts and downside risks could most influence Burger King's September 2026 foot traffic?
| US Same-Store Sales Growth | 8.5% in Q2 2026 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| September 2026 Foot Traffic Outlook | 60% probability of exceeding 94.5 [4] |
| Key Operational Catalysts | Whopper Guarantee and Your Way Champion manager role [1][5] |
Burger King shows strong turnaround with strategic catalysts boosting foot traffic. The company is currently experiencing a significant turnaround, evidenced by an 8.5% increase in U.S. same-store sales during Q2 2026. This growth is largely attributed to a revamped Whopper and the successful implementation of the 'Reclaim the Flame' strategy [1][2][3]. Key operational catalysts expected to further enhance September 2026 foot traffic include new initiatives such as the 'Whopper Guarantee' and the 'Your Way Champion' manager role, both focused on improving service quality and order accuracy [1][5]. Additionally, ongoing restaurant remodels are anticipated to contribute positively to foot traffic [1][5]. As of early September 2026, sentiment indicates a 60% probability of traffic exceeding 94.5 [4].
Several downside risks could challenge Burger King's September foot traffic. Despite the positive trends, persistent inflation in beef and labor costs could affect operational expenses and pricing [6]. Tightening consumer discretionary spending also presents a challenge, potentially leading to fewer customer visits [6]. Furthermore, there is a risk of reputational backlash stemming from previous controversial marketing tactics or perceived mistreatment of staff concerning new operational roles, which could negatively influence public perception and foot traffic [6].
Sources (6)
- 1How the Whopper reignited the burger wars | CNN Businesscnn.com
- 2Restaurant Brands International (Q2) 2026 earnings - CNBCcnbc.com
- 3Burger King's $700 Million Fix Is Paying Off for Restaurant Brands...fool.com
- 4Burger King Foot Traffic in September - Probabilidades na Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 5Burger King makes major changes after thousands of customers...foxnews.com
- 6Burger King SWOT Analysis (2026) - Business Model Analystbusinessmodelanalyst.com
7. What do recent high-frequency location data sources indicate about Burger King's U.S. traffic trends in July and August 2026?
| U.S. Comparable Sales Growth Q2 2026 | 8.5% (Burger King) [1] |
|---|---|
| Carbon Arc Index Baseline | 100 represents parity with prior year (foot traffic) [2] |
| July/August 2026 U.S. Traffic Data | Not available in research findings [1] |
No specific high-frequency traffic data is available for July and August 2026. The provided research does not directly indicate Burger King's U.S. traffic trends for these months. However, Burger King reported strong performance in Q2 2026, achieving U.S. comparable sales growth of 8.5% [1]. This growth was attributed to successful menu updates, marketing efforts focused on guest engagement, and ongoing restaurant modernizations [1][3].
Foot traffic is typically monitored using specialized year-over-year indices. While the Carbon Arc index, which measures year-over-year changes in foot traffic where 100 indicates parity, is used for tracking such data [2], specific index values or other high-frequency location data for July and August 2026 are not included in the available information. Prediction markets on Kalshi were actively trading in late August and early September 2026 regarding Burger King's September foot traffic, based on this index [2][4][5].
Sources (5)
- 1Burger King sales surge, but Popeyes faces uphill battlerestaurantdive.com
- 2Burger King Foot Traffic in September - Probabilidades na Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 3Q2 2026's restaurant winners and losersrestaurantdive.com
- 4Burger King Foot Traffic in September Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 5Kalshi Markets: Big Brother, AI, Diesel Pricespredictionnewsnetwork.com
8. How did Burger King's year-over-year foot traffic growth in Q2 2026 compare to that of key competitors like McDonald's and Wendy's?
| Burger King Foot Traffic Growth (Q2 2026) | 0.7% year-over-year [1] |
|---|---|
| McDonald's U.S. Foot Traffic Decline (Q2 2026) | 4.5% year-over-year [2][3] |
| Broader QSR Category Decline (Q2 2026) | 3.0% overall visits [1] |
Burger King showed strong Q2 2026 foot traffic growth year-over-year. In Q2 2026, Burger King's overall foot traffic increased by 0.7% year-over-year, which included a 1.7% rise in average visits per location. This performance significantly outpaced the broader burger quick-service restaurant (QSR) industry. Furthermore, Burger King demonstrated resilience when compared to the general QSR category, which experienced a 3.0% decline in overall visits during the same period [1].
Competitors, particularly McDonald's, saw foot traffic decline in Q2 2026. McDonald's U.S. foot traffic decreased by 4.5% year-over-year in Q2 2026, underperforming both Burger King and the general QSR industry benchmark [2][3]. While specific year-over-year traffic data for Wendy's in Q2 2026 was not detailed in the comparative reports, industry analysis generally indicated Burger King's superior performance across the burger QSR segment. Wendy's also faced separate operational challenges, having recorded six consecutive quarters of same-store sales declines as of August 2026 [1].
9. What is the relationship between RBI's reported comparable sales for Burger King U.S. and the foot traffic data used by this market?
| RBI Burger King U.S. comparable sales reporting frequency | Quarterly [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| RBI comparable sales metric | Percentage change in restaurant sales for restaurants open 13+ months [1][2][3] |
| Carbon Arc index metric | Year-over-year change in foot traffic using mobile location data [4] |
The prediction market's foot traffic data is separate from RBI's reporting. The "Burger King Foot Traffic in September" prediction market is settled based on data from Carbon Arc, an external mobile-data provider, rather than Restaurant Brands International's (RBI) internal financial reporting [4]. There is no direct functional or reporting relationship between RBI's official quarterly comparable sales metrics for Burger King U.S. and the specific Carbon Arc mobile-data-derived index used by the prediction market [5][4].
RBI and Carbon Arc measure different aspects of restaurant performance. RBI reports comparable sales for Burger King U.S. on a quarterly basis, which measures the percentage change in sales for restaurant locations open for at least 13 months [1][2][3]. In contrast, the Carbon Arc index tracks year-over-year foot traffic volume using mobile location data across more than 200 million devices, normalizing for factors such as seasonality and weather. An index value of 100 indicates traffic equal to the same month in the prior year [4].
RBI recognizes traffic's importance but maintains data independence. While RBI's management acknowledges a strong correlation between restaurant sales, guest traffic, consumer discretionary spending, and overall business health, it explicitly states there is no direct functional or reporting connection between its comparable sales figures and the Carbon Arc foot traffic index [5][4].
Sources (5)
- 1Restaurant Brands International Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026...rbi.com
- 2Restaurant Brands International Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026...prnewswire.com
- 3Restaurant Brands International Inc. Reports First Quarter 2026...rbi.com
- 4Burger King Foot Traffic in September - Probabilidades na Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 5[PDF] RESTAURANT BRANDS INTERNATIONAL INC.s26.q4cdn.com
10. How do current analyst forecasts for RBI's Q3 2026 revenue align with the high foot traffic growth implied by this market?
| BK Sep 2026 Foot Traffic Outlook | Projected year-over-year decline [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Probability of Foot Traffic Index > 94.5 | 60% (as of September 9, 2026) [1][4] |
| RBI Q3 2026 Results Release Date | October 29, 2026 [5][6] |
Burger King's Q3 2026 foot traffic forecast suggests a decline. The prediction market for Burger King foot traffic in September 2026 indicates that strong growth is not being priced in, implying a projected year-over-year decline in visits [1][2][3]. As of September 9, 2026, the market showed a 60% probability of the foot traffic index being above 94.5, where an index of 100 signifies parity with the prior year [1][4]. Despite this probability, the overall market trend for September implies a decline, as the index is below 100, meaning the market does not suggest high foot traffic growth [1][2][3].
Specific RBI Q3 2026 analyst revenue forecasts are unavailable. Restaurant Brands International (RBI) is scheduled to release its Q3 2026 financial results on October 29, 2026 [5][6]. While RBI has long-term guidance targeting 3%+ comparable sales and 8%+ organic adjusted operating income growth for 2024–2028, the provided information does not contain specific current analyst forecasts for RBI's Q3 2026 revenue [5][6][7]. Therefore, it is not possible to align specific analyst revenue projections with the foot traffic trends implied by the prediction market [1][5][6][7][2][3].
Sources (7)
- 1Burger King Foot Traffic in September - Probabilidades na Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 2The State of Restaurant Traffic as 2026 Gets Underwayqsrmagazine.com
- 3Free Burger King QSR Chain Demographics and Foot Traffic Insightsplacer.ai
- 4Burger King Monthly Foot Traffic in August - Kalshikalshi.com
- 5Restaurant Brands International Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026...rbi.com
- 6Restaurant Brands International to report Q3 20... - Pluangpluang.com
- 7Restaurant Brands International Inc. Reports First Quarter 2026...rbi.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The immediate catalyst for Burger King traffic is the September Carbon Arc index [1]. Bullish confirmation would entail an index above 100, especially above the selected contract threshold, alongside continued value and menu momentum [1][2]. This follows an 8.5% Q2 2026 same-store sales growth for Burger King U.S., surpassing the broader burger category by over 9 percentage points [3][4]. Placer.ai reported average visits per location up 1.7% year over year in Q2 2026 [2]. Store remodels further support the bullish case, showing average sales uplifts of 11.9% for elevated remodels, 26% for scrape-and-rebuilds, and 16.8% for double-drive-thru conversions [3].
Conversely, a bearish outcome would be a September index below 100 or evidence of traffic weakening materially after June [1][2]. Franchisee profitability fell from $205,000 in 2023–24 to $185,000 in 2025 amid higher beef costs, coinciding with a reduction in U.S./Canada Burger King restaurants to 7,001 from 7,062 year over year [3][5]. Restaurant Brands International (RBI) will report its Q3 2026 results on Thursday, October 29, 2026, with an investor call scheduled for 8:30 a.m. Eastern [6][7][8]. This event will serve as a later validation point for both positive and negative traffic trends [6].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: October 15, 2026
- Closes: October 08, 2026
Sources (8)
- 1Burger King Foot Traffic in September - Probabilidades na Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 2Why RBI Weathered Q2 2026 Better Than Most QSR Chains – Placer.ai Blogplacer.ai
- 3Can Burger King Sustain Momentum? It Starts with What's Still Left to Do - QSR Magazineqsrmagazine.com
- 4Q2 2026's restaurant winners and losersrestaurantdive.com
- 5Burger King's US Sales Jumped 8.5%. The Restaurants RBI Owns Made a 3% Margin.businessmodelanalyst.com
- 6Restaurant Brands International to Report Third Quarter 2026 Results on October 29, 2026 | lifestyle.tasteterminal.comlifestyle.tasteterminal.com
- 7Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
- 8Restaurant Brands International Q3 Results Set Oct. 29 | QSR Stock Newsstocktitan.net
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 11 markets in this series
Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 9 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBKFT-26SEP07-T99: NO (Sep 07, 2026)
- KXBKFT-26SEP07-T98: NO (Sep 07, 2026)
- KXBKFT-26SEP07-T97: NO (Sep 07, 2026)
- KXBKFT-26SEP07-T96: NO (Sep 07, 2026)
- KXBKFT-26SEP07-T95: NO (Sep 07, 2026)
