Oil price (WTI) on Apr 10, 2026?

The International Energy Agency projects a significant oil market surplus. For the first quarter of 2026, the International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates a "significant surplus" in the global oil market, as detailed in its January 2026 Oil Market Report ^[1]. However, the available research does not specify numerical figures for global oil supply and demand projections for Q1 2026 from the IEA, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), or OPEC ^[1].

Permian Basin new well breakeven costs are projected to rise. A Dallas Federal Reserve survey conducted in Q4 2025 indicated an average breakeven oil price of $55 per barrel for new well development in the Permian Basin ^[2]. Some survey participants projected these costs to increase to $60-$65 per barrel for Q1 2026, primarily due to inflationary pressures and rising service expenses ^[2].

An oil market surplus could challenge Permian drilling economics. The IEA's forecast of a substantial oil market surplus for Q1 2026 implies potential downward pressure on global oil prices ^[1]. Should market prices fall to or below the $55-$65 per barrel breakeven range for new Permian wells, it could diminish the economic feasibility of new drilling activities in the region, affecting future supply growth ^[2].

Direct probability assessments from specified firms are not explicitly available. Specific intelligence from geopolitical risk firms, such as Eurasia Group or Stratfor, directly assessing the probability of a direct military action in early 2026 that could disrupt tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz for more than 72 hours, was not explicitly found in the conducted research. While an analysis from Stratfor was reviewed, it primarily focuses on the complexities and challenges of maintaining secure passage through the strait and the obstacles facing a U.S. plan for naval escorts, rather than providing a quantitative probability for a specific military action ^[2].

A 70% probability of escalation was identified, with caveats. The closest relevant assessment identified comes from TradingKey.com, which indicates a 70% probability of continued escalation in the Strait of Hormuz crisis ^[1]. However, this assessment does not precisely define 'escalation' as 'direct military action,' specify the duration of potential disruption, or explicitly attribute this probability to the geopolitical intelligence firms requested in the prompt.

Other research focused on oil price predictions, not military action. Other sources provided in the research primarily discuss prediction markets for WTI oil prices in 2026 ^[3]. These do not offer direct probabilities for military action in the Strait of Hormuz or its specific impact duration from the perspective of geopolitical intelligence firms.

China's industrial production started Q1 2026 with strong growth. In the January-February 2026 period, industrial output expanded significantly by 6.3% year-on-year, exceeding earlier forecasts and signaling a robust start to the year for the Chinese economy ^[1]. Concurrently, China's crude imports for January-February 2026 also saw a substantial increase, driven by heightened refinery throughput and strategic stockpiling efforts ^[4].

Transportation fuel demand faces weakness due to rising EV adoption. While PetroChina forecasts China's overall oil demand growth to slow to 0.4% in 2026, this modest figure masks an underlying shift in demand drivers ^[2]. Kpler indicates that anticipated weakness in transportation fuel demand is primarily due to the increasing adoption of electric vehicles ^[5]. Consequently, overall oil demand growth is expected to be predominantly supported by the expanding demand for petrochemical feedstocks ^[5].

Specific Fed Funds Rate forecast data for Q1 2026 is unavailable. Although the research includes a source on "Fed Rate Odds: 2026 FOMC Meeting Probabilities" ^[3], the provided information does not detail specific data points for the consensus implied path or forecast of the US Fed Funds Rate for Q1 2026 as priced by futures markets.

Five oil supermajors project approximately $71 billion for 2025 upstream capital expenditure. This aggregate figure includes Chevron's announced $15 billion for upstream investments ^[2], BP's estimated $12 billion ^[4], and Shell's projected $12 billion ^[5]. TotalEnergies forecasts approximately $13 billion ^[6]. While ExxonMobil's specific 2025 upstream capital expenditure is not explicitly detailed, their overall capital expenditures are projected in the range of $23-25 billion ^[7], with a significant majority typically directed towards upstream projects, implying an investment of roughly $19 billion in upstream activities.

Direct 2019 upstream spending comparisons are challenging due to limited data. A comprehensive comparison to their 2019 pre-pandemic upstream spending is constrained by the limited availability of explicit 2019 upstream data for all five companies within the provided sources. Chevron is the only supermajor for which 2019 spending is explicitly mentioned, with a total capital and exploratory budget of $20 billion for that year ^[3]. However, this figure represents their total capital budget and does not provide an explicit breakdown for upstream investments, making a direct aggregated comparison difficult.

Current spending reflects a disciplined capital allocation post-pandemic. The observed capital expenditure indicates a disciplined approach to capital allocation, focusing on high-return projects and efficiency, a trend evident since the pandemic. This suggests a more measured expansion of future supply capacity compared to pre-pandemic spending levels.

Specific numerical values for WTI futures positioning and call options were not directly provided. The research summaries did not explicitly include the 'Managed Money' net speculative positioning in WTI futures or the open interest concentration on WTI call options for the April 2026 expiry with strike prices between $100 and $120.

Calculating 'Managed Money' net speculative positioning requires specific CFTC reports. To ascertain the net speculative positioning of 'Managed Money' in WTI futures for the period preceding April 2026, consultation of a CFTC Commitment of Traders (CoT) report detailing WTI crude oil futures positioning is necessary. An analysis of such a CoT report, published March 3, 2026, provides relevant data on WTI crude oil ^[1]. This report summarizes the long and short positions of 'Managed Money' in WTI futures, which would enable the derivation of their net speculative positioning. Furthermore, the raw data required for this calculation is also available in direct CFTC "Petroleum (Futures Only)" long and short reports, such as those identified as sources ^[3] and ^[4], covering the reporting period immediately prior to April 2026.

WTI call options open interest details are available in a specific CFTC report. To determine the open interest concentration on WTI call options with strike prices between $100 and $120 for the April 2026 expiry, the relevant source is a CFTC Commitments of Traders report that provides options data for petroleum products. A "CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report - Petroleum (Combined)" dated February 24, 2026, is an available resource ^[2]. This report is expected to enumerate the open interest for WTI crude oil options, categorized by expiry month and strike price, thereby including the specific April 2026 call options within the designated strike range ^[2]. Although precise figures were not included in the initial research summary, these identified reports are the essential sources for obtaining the detailed information.